Impressions of Andrew Miller

[Dojji]

This kid is good, and getting better. I'm glad he's had some softish lineups to get used to the league on, and I hope he can stay effective against the best lineups. It's easy to see over the last couple games why the kid was so highly rated. One more good start and it's time to start thinking dangerous thoughts about next year.

[boston22407]

Im Glad the he is doing good.Hope he keeps it up

[Cocos Disciples]

He's definitely looked good. I was really impressed with his first start up until the Hudson HR, but even with that it was a solid start. Quality start today despite poor defense. It is against two crappy NL offenses, so I'll take it with a grain of salt. Next start is against the Astros, so it doesn't get any harder.

 

Overall though, definitely happier with Miller than with Matsuzaka. No question.

[a700hitter]

I think he might be able to hold down the 5th spot. He just needs to be consistent.

[SoxFanForsyth]

You know what? I think he's done better than anyone could have expected. You look at his performance, and then you look at the performance against the exact same offense of the other pitchers who threw.

 

Miller vs SD: 5.2 IP, 3 ER

Aceves vs SD: 5 IP, 4 ER

Lackey vs SD: 3.1 IP, 5 ER

 

Miller vs PIT: 6 IP, 1 ER

Lester vs PIT: 6 IP, 2 ER

Wake vs PIT: 6 IP, 5ER

 

I know it's hard to judge Miller based on his performance against SD and PIT, but when you look at how he did vs how our other SP did, I'd say Miller has done really well.

[Dojji]

Stupid question: Does Miller still have the potential to become a second Lester?

 

Personally I think you have to start asking the question of what it'll take to keep this guy on the roster.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Stupid question: Does Miller still have the potential to become a second Lester?

 

Personally I think you have to start asking the question of what it'll take to keep this guy on the roster.

 

I'd love it if Miller would develop a cutter, as long as he doesn't become overly dependent. He works well off his fastball right now. I don't know if he'll ever be a Lester, but he's much, much, much better than DiceK. DiceK hitting the DL and Miller replacing him is the best thing that could have happened to this rotation. If we slot Miller in the 4 slot, and have a core 4 of Beckett - Lester - Buchholz - Miller, that's a huge rotation. Lackey, as a 5th man, won't ever live up to his contract, but if he can settle down and throw to a 3.90-4.10 ERA the rest of the season (not overall ERA, just ERA from today to the end), then this rotation just became stellar.

 

As far as keeping Miller on the roster, you gotta think that he is craving some stability. The Sox took a chance on him, if they extend him for, say, 3 years, it will probably be 3 years/12mm or 15mm. Something really cheap considering all he's been through, and he will take that in an instant. Comfort, a slot in the rotation, amd $5mm is more than he could have dreamed of just 2-3 months ago.

[jacksonianmarch]

2 starts in and you are asking about him becoming Lester. Are you typically this premature with the ladies?? Miller has shown ace stuff and showed improved location vs the Pirates. He's faced two terrible offenses, one which he allowed too many baserunners and one where he was solid. He gets the impotent Stros next, so not a real test of his mettle. We'll see how he does vs a team that actually carries lumber and can actually take a pitch outside the zone

[Palodios]

3/15 after two starts is pushing it, especially since he was practically DFAed last year. He has a $3 million club option for 2012, and I would think he has one or two arbitration years after that.

[SoxFanForsyth]

2 starts in and you are asking about him becoming Lester. Are you typically this premature with the ladies?? Miller has shown ace stuff and showed improved location vs the Pirates. He's faced two terrible offenses' date=' one which he allowed too many baserunners and one where he was solid. He gets the impotent Stros next, so not a real test of his mettle. [b']We'll see how he does vs a team that actually carries lumber and can actually take a pitch outside the zone[/b]

 

Um. You do realize that the Pirates (29.0%) and the Padres (29.4%) rank in the bottom half of the MLB in swinging at pitches outside of the zone, right? Not to mention the fact that getting ahead in the count has a lot to do with hitters getting fooled and swinging at bad pitches. Apparently when you throw 69.8% first pitch strikes, it helps out a little. But I guess that's just another product of facing s***** offenses.

 

He's getting a 31.3% swing rate on pitches out of the zone.

 

I guess CC Sabathia, Roy Halladay, Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, Dan Haren, David Price, and Chris Carpenter are all just facing s***** offenses because they all have higher swing rates on pitches out of the zone than Miller does.

 

Nice argument. Too bad it holds zero water.

[SoxFanForsyth]

3/15 after two starts is pushing it' date=' especially since he was practically DFAed last year. He has a $3 million club option for 2012, and I would think he has one or two arbitration years after that.[/quote']

 

I was saying 3/15 assuming he can harness his talent, and by the end of the year, has proven that he is an above average starter at the MLB level. I'm not saying approach him now, but if he continues to throw successfully, I don't see why we wouldn't approach him with some kind of a deal this offseason.

[Palodios]

Edit: Scratch this post. I had no idea that Miller has been in the majors for six years. No wonder he got so screwed up.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Edit: Scratch this post. I had no idea that Miller has been in the majors for six years. No wonder he got so screwed up.

 

Yeah. Retarded. 5 innings of AA ball and then the Tigers called him up. 5 innings. Ridiculous. Let your prospects develop.

[Palodios]

Yeah. Retarded. 5 innings of A ball and then the Tigers called him up. 5 innings. Ridiculous. Let your prospects develop.

 

Fixed.

 

How messed up is that?

[SoxFanForsyth]

Fixed.

 

How messed up is that?

 

Oh my gosh you're right. Unbelievable. Absolutely ridiculous.

[jacksonianmarch]

Um. You do realize that the Pirates (29.0%) and the Padres (29.4%) rank in the bottom half of the MLB in swinging at pitches outside of the zone, right? Not to mention the fact that getting ahead in the count has a lot to do with hitters getting fooled and swinging at bad pitches. Apparently when you throw 69.8% first pitch strikes, it helps out a little. But I guess that's just another product of facing s***** offenses.

 

He's getting a 31.3% swing rate on pitches out of the zone.

 

I guess CC Sabathia, Roy Halladay, Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, Dan Haren, David Price, and Chris Carpenter are all just facing s***** offenses because they all have higher swing rates on pitches out of the zone than Miller does.

 

Nice argument. Too bad it holds zero water.

 

So now, instead of looking at the quality of the offense faced, you are going down to his swing % out of the zone and his first pitch strike % against a team with no punch. Once again, do the ladies enjoy your prematurity or do they not like getting cream on their leg before the action begins.

 

The guy has ace stuff. I have never disputed that. But he has faced 2 lineups that are 25th and 28th in the majors in runs scored. The composite OPS of the Padres is .645 and for the Pirates, it is .663. Are you really going to draw conclusions based on two starts vs two abysmal offensive National League teams? Really? Cmon now, you are better than that. We'll see how he does when he gets back to the AL and has to face a lineup that actually has someone who knows hot to hit in it

[SoxFanForsyth]

So now' date=' instead of looking at the quality of the offense faced, you are going down to his swing % out of the zone and his first pitch strike % against a team with no punch. [b']Once again, do the ladies enjoy your prematurity or do they not like getting cream on their leg before the action begins. [/b]

 

The guy has ace stuff. I have never disputed that. But he has faced 2 lineups that are 25th and 28th in the majors in runs scored. The composite OPS of the Padres is .645 and for the Pirates, it is .663. Are you really going to draw conclusions based on two starts vs two abysmal offensive National League teams? Really? Cmon now, you are better than that. We'll see how he does when he gets back to the AL and has to face a lineup that actually has someone who knows hot to hit in it

 

First off, if you read, I was responding to Dojji's question regarding whether or not Miller could be another Lester. So you weren't talking to me in the first place, so the "Once again" comment doesn't apply. So 0 for 2 on the day.

 

You're the one who said to wait until he faces a team who doesn't swing at junk out of the zone. I'm just showing you that these teams have plate discipline. And his First Pitch Strike % is not, by any means, a product of the line up you face. I never said that we can judge him based on his outings so far. I did say, however, that based on the performance of the other pitchers in this rotation, he did really well.

[jacksonianmarch]

He did really well in the Pittsburgh game. He was not very good in SD

[SoxFanForsyth]

He did really well in the Pittsburgh game. He was not very good in SD

 

I would chalk up the game vs SD to a bit of nerves. Regardless, he's making huge strides relative to where he was even in Spring Training. As he gets more comfortable with his pitches, and starts trusting his stuff more, I think he could easily become an ace-type pitcher. I know it's been a small sample, but I would be more surprised if he gets blown up than I would if he throws 7 innings of shut out baseball.

[italstallianion]

Just a quick point on San Diego, keep in mind that the game was in Boston, which adds the effect of being a hitters ballpark (especially compared to if it was a road game in San Diego) and since it was at home, instead of facing the pitcher Miller had to face a DH, which isn't huge, but it means that you can't really say the composite OPS of that lineup is the same as the usual Padres lineup since they didn't have the pitcher weighing them down. Not to mention that those OPS numbers would look a bit different if they batted in Boston for their home games than San Diego.

[Will617]

Too early to talk about him being another Lester. He's a completely different pitcher as well.

I think that he'll stick (or should stick) as the number 5 starter this season, and should hopefully build on his numbers. His control will be the defining factor of whether he goes beyond that as a starter. It's improved tremendously from before, but it still needs a lot more work before he can move past being a back-of-the-rotation (for the Red Sox, at least) pitcher.

[Cocos Disciples]

Lester comparisons are way early. But right now he looks to be a better bottom of the rotation starter than what they had.

 

And don't make this personal. This is a good baseball discussion if you keep it that way.

[SoxSport]

How long did it take Lester to get where he is? First year he sucked. Takes awhile for a pitcher to get adjusted to the Show. So far so good for this kid. He sure is better than Lackey and Wakefield. And a helluva lot cheaper.

[example1]

The issue with Miller is way more about his head than his stuff. He has the tools to be a frontline starter. That's why he was a top draft pick and a Friday night starter for a national championship caliber team.

 

What makes me optimistic is that with all of the moving parts there may be a fix or two that could let him get back to effectiveness. His FB is certainly hard enough, and from what I've read/heard, his CB command has never been the issue. That combination bodes well for his future. There is a 5th spot available, he makes the rotation younger and is probably able to be had for not too much money. Seems like he'll get his shot to prove himself.

[SoxFanForsyth]

The issue with Miller is way more about his head than his stuff. He has the tools to be a frontline starter. That's why he was a top draft pick and a Friday night starter for a national championship caliber team.

 

What makes me optimistic is that with all of the moving parts there may be a fix or two that could let him get back to effectiveness. His FB is certainly hard enough, and from what I've read/heard, his CB command has never been the issue. That combination bodes well for his future. There is a 5th spot available, he makes the rotation younger and is probably able to be had for not too much money. Seems like he'll get his shot to prove himself.

 

Worst case scenario, the Sox exercise his 3mm option, go through 1.5 years of him as the 4th or 5th man in the rotation, and then make a decision on extending him at that point. Regardless, you've got an extremely cheap, incredibly talented pitcher holding down the 4th or 5th spot for the remainder of this year, plus next year. This is a guy who, if he can return to form, would be a top of the rotation starter on just about any baseball team not named the Phillies. Lets not forget he was the starter ahead of Bard in the UNC rotation, and was selected out of college 20 picks higher than Bard. Just to put a bit of a measuring stick on his potential.

[DirtDog]

He did really well in the Pittsburgh game. He was not very good in SD

 

Wrong. He looked actually much more impressive out of the gate in the SD game. He made one bad pitch and then that's the story. First five innings he maybe had 1 jam to get out of, other than that he was having guys swing and miss, and cruising. The Pittsburgh game was a few more jams, but he pitched solid enough to battle through. Overall his numbers were better in Pittsburgh, but I think he had better command in the SD game.

[SoxSport]

The Sox have another "kid" in Pawtucket who is tearing up AAA. His name is Millwood. Remember him?

What are you waiting for, Theo? He's better than Lackey or Wakefield.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Wrong. He looked actually much more impressive out of the gate in the SD game. He made one bad pitch and then that's the story. First five innings he maybe had 1 jam to get out of' date=' other than that he was having guys swing and miss, and cruising. The Pittsburgh game was a few more jams, but he pitched solid enough to battle through. Overall his numbers were better in Pittsburgh, but I think he had better command in the SD game.[/quote']

 

Millers stats:

 

@ Pit - 109 pitches, 72 strikes (66%), 21/27 First Pitch Strikes (77.7%), 4 K's, 2 BB's, 6 IP

 

V SD - 89 pitches, 58 strikes (65.1%), 16/26 First Pitch Strikes (61.5%), 6 K's, 3 BB's, 5.2 IP

 

The only reason Miller threw more pitches and got into jams in Pit was because his defense was atrocious behind him.