The Optimism Thread

[iortiz]

.380? You're right, no way.

 

But he hit around .290 in Oakland. That could well translate to a .315 hitter in Fenway and the AL East. And that will come with a .360-.370 obp.

 

If he puts those numbers I won't care whether Crawford comes back or not.

[SoxSport]

The Sox are 10-10. The Angels are 7-14.

Things could be a lot worse.

[SoxFanForsyth]

The Red Sox (10-11) are 3.5 games back right now to the Orioles.

 

If the Rangers win tonight, the Sox will be 2.5 back on the top placed true contender (Rays).

 

So, the Sox being 3.5 games back and in last place are closer to 1st place than the 2nd place team in the AL West and NL West.

[a700hitter]

Tomorrow is D'-Day for Aaron Cook. I don't see how they can let him walk. He would be a good long option for Bobby V if a starter gets into trouble. With Cook, Tazawa, Padilla and Atchinson in the Pen, hopefully the 7 run rule is a thing of the past. Each of those guys can go multiple innings.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Beckett after DET (first start): 4 GS, 2.93 ERA

 

Bard after TOR (first start): 2 GS, 1.98 ERA, 13.2 IP

 

I really, really like our SP right now. Buchholz is going to come around, we know that. The SP right now is hands down better than the SP was this time last year.

[jacksonianmarch]

Beckett after DET (first start): 4 GS, 2.93 ERA

 

Bard after TOR (first start): 2 GS, 1.98 ERA, 13.2 IP

 

I really, really like our SP right now. Buchholz is going to come around, we know that. The SP right now is hands down better than the SP was this time last year.

 

You do not know if Buchholz will come around. He's coming back from a serious injury. That's like me saying Pineda is going to come around.

[SoxFanForsyth]

You do not know if Buchholz will come around. He's coming back from a serious injury. That's like me saying Pineda is going to come around.

 

Yes. I can guarantee you right now that Buchholz will come around.

 

And it's not even close to being the same. Labrum surgery with unknown recovery at all vs a stress fracture which has fully healed?? That's not even close.

 

Buchholz is rusty to start, as should have been expected. His velocity is slowly but surely increasing. He's going to come around.

[BornToRun]

Yes. I can guarantee you right now that Buchholz will come around.

 

And it's not even close to being the same. Labrum surgery with unknown recovery at all vs a stress fracture which has fully healed?? That's not even close.

 

Buchholz is rusty to start, as should have been expected. His velocity is slowly but surely increasing. He's going to come around.

 

Plus it seems like clay has a habit of off to a slow start

[BigPapiEnFuego]

You do not know if Buchholz will come around. He's coming back from a serious injury. That's like me saying Pineda is going to come around.

 

But I thought Pineda's injury was just an elaborate ruse! They just don't want him to have arm trouble and make an ass out of the Yankee front office

 

 

oh wait

[User Name]

But I thought Pineda's injury was just an elaborate ruse! They just don't want him to have arm trouble and make an ass out of the Yankee front office

 

 

oh wait

 

Aces.

[SCM33]

You do not know if Buchholz will come around. He's coming back from a serious injury. That's like me saying Pineda is going to come around.

 

Chart.

 

I also propose a new addition to the chart, comparing a healthy Sox player to an injured Yankees player.

[SoxSport]

Valentine seems to be extending his starters. Wonder if he needed permission from the front office?

[kapsis21]

Chart.

 

I also propose a new addition to the chart, comparing a healthy Sox player to an injured Yankees player.

 

:shock::thumbsup:

[jacksonianmarch]

This is just another sox fan's wet dream of stupidity. So recovering from a spinal fracture is easy and Buchholz will come back to being an ace? Cmon man. His "track record" is 170IP of solid starting marred by more injuries. He is coming back from a serious injury. You have absolutely no clue if he will return to the SSS that he was.

[SoxFanForsyth]

This is just another sox fan's wet dream of stupidity. So recovering from a spinal fracture is easy and Buchholz will come back to being an ace? Cmon man. His "track record" is 170IP of solid starting marred by more injuries. He is coming back from a serious injury. You have absolutely no clue if he will return to the SSS that he was.

 

SSS???

 

Coming into this season, he had thrown 348.1 IP to a 3.10 ERA in his previous 3 seasons, and 256 IP to a 2.70 ERA in his last 2 seasons.

 

You can't be serious with that comment.

[a700hitter]

This is just another sox fan's wet dream of stupidity. So recovering from a spinal fracture is easy and Buchholz will come back to being an ace? Cmon man. His "track record" is 170IP of solid starting marred by more injuries. He is coming back from a serious injury. You have absolutely no clue if he will return to the SSS that he was.

Some people don't want to acknowledge that Phil Highes has had more success at the Major League level than Buchholz has had. Hughes had an All Star season as a starter and he was also a dominant short reliever for one season. Buchholz similarly had one successful season as a starter, but he was not a successful bull pen pitcher. The difference between the two organizations is that a successful season in 2012 by Hughes is not a necessity for the Yankees. It would be a nice to have. On the other hand, a big 2012 season from Buchholz is expected and necessary for Red Sox success. I don't think it is unrealistic that Buchholz will have a big season, but it is far from a given. There is a huge question mark attached.

[kapsis21]

This is just another sox fan's wet dream of stupidity. So recovering from a spinal fracture is easy and Buchholz will come back to being an ace? Cmon man. His "track record" is 170IP of solid starting marred by more injuries. He is coming back from a serious injury. You have absolutely no clue if he will return to the SSS that he was.

 

:what: wait did i expect anything but this comparison.. nope.. back to :sleep:

quoting SFF here in bold

 

 

SSS???

 

Coming into this season, he had thrown 348.1 IP to a 3.10 ERA in his previous 3 seasons, and 256 IP to a 2.70 ERA in his last 2 seasons.

 

You can't be serious with that comment.

[ORS]

I feel this needs to be said. I'm not trying to be a downer on the "optimism", but I think it might need some tempering. Those that point to 2011 and how long it took them to get to .500 in comparison to this year, keep this in mind. When they righted the ship in 2011, they went on an incredible tear over the middle 4 months of the season. I don't think this current roster is capable of that. I think they'll hover around .500 through the end of May, maybe a little over, and it wouldn't surprise me if they were still around that mark by the end of June.

 

When the OF gets Ellsbury and Crawford back, Bard moves to the BP for his innings limit, Matsuzaka returns, if Melancon figures out how get AL hitters out, and Bailey returns, then I think they could go on a good run. But, right now, I'm not sure the current roster can do what last year's team did during those middle 4 months. Which is fine, just stay within shouting distance over the first 3 months, and finish strong. That should be enough to make the October dance, and they could be quite good by then.

[jacksonianmarch]

I feel this needs to be said. I'm not trying to be a downer on the "optimism", but I think it might need some tempering. Those that point to 2011 and how long it took them to get to .500 in comparison to this year, keep this in mind. When they righted the ship in 2011, they went on an incredible tear over the middle 4 months of the season. I don't think this current roster is capable of that. I think they'll hover around .500 through the end of May, maybe a little over, and it wouldn't surprise me if they were still around that mark by the end of June.

 

When the OF gets Ellsbury and Crawford back, Bard moves to the BP for his innings limit, Matsuzaka returns, if Melancon figures out how get AL hitters out, and Bailey returns, then I think they could go on a good run. But, right now, I'm not sure the current roster can do what last year's team did during those middle 4 months. Which is fine, just stay within shouting distance over the first 3 months, and finish strong. That should be enough to make the October dance, and they could be quite good by then.

 

ORS with some levity.

[jacksonianmarch]

SSS???

 

Coming into this season, he had thrown 348.1 IP to a 3.10 ERA in his previous 3 seasons, and 256 IP to a 2.70 ERA in his last 2 seasons.

 

You can't be serious with that comment.

 

So based upon 3 partial seasons, he is a dominant force to be reckoned with? And obviously ERA is the best stat for pitchers? Cmon man. Consistency would be appreciated. Buchholz threw well, when he was healthy. Thing is, he is never healthy and he is coming back from a spinal fracture. He's had to alter his motion and with it, he's lost velocity. That lost velocity has taken away his capacity to put hitter away and he is subsequently required to get into long counts and get hit harder than previous.

 

And for those who think that he "always starts a season poorly", his career ERA in April is 3.83. It is his second worst month behind July for some reason, but he is not epically bad. Buch's ERA is 8.87, WHIP is nearly 2, his K rate is below 4.5, and his K/BB is 1.1. Guys, that is absolutely f***ing abysmal.

 

For comparison, would anyone argue that Phil Hughes has sucked thus far this yr? I wouldnt, hell, I want him out of the rotation. And his ERA (7.88), WHIP (1.88), K rate (9.6) and K/BB (2.8) are all SIGNIFICANTLY better. But Hughes sucks and Buchholz is just a little "rusty". Now, he might end up miraculously righting the ship and getting back to his shortened season career high of dominance. But I think it is pretty likely that he doesnt get there this season at least.

 

Also, the "rusty" idea is assinine as well. He had an entire spring training and has had a full month of starting. He's 2 months into throwing against big league competition after his return from last yrs injury. He's not rusty, he sucks balls right now

[jung]

Well I do think one change we can make to our early spring posts with regard to 1,2 3 in the Sox rotation is that most of us contended that the success of those three was a critical component to any chances that the Sox had. Those comments including my own were made in the complete vacuum of data with regard to Doubront and Bard. We had hopes for those two and I had high hopes for them expressed here several times.

 

Buch looks kinda' vulnerable at the moment but I no longer think that is the total disaster it was once considered to be. Buch has some issues to work out but Doubront and Bard are already pitching better than Buch is pitching at the moment. We have Cook and dice coming. So I do think some of the pressure is off Buch as a component of the 1,2 3 rotation argument.

 

While the league has not really had one shuffle through even within divisions yet, I am still somewhat concerned with the ease with which fairly middling pitchers, some midway through recoveries can shut down the current offense. Granted the current offense does not have Ells and CC. However CC is not a carbon copy of Ells though people like to project him as such and Ells recovery will be slow this year.

 

The A's offense is truly pitiful. So, I will be looking less at what we do with the A's offense (unless they torch us in which case I might jump to the head of that Tobin Bridge line) and more at how our offense performs the next couple of games. This is the bottom end of the A's rotation and other than Buch I have been touting my opinion here that our 4 and 5 will best most 4's and 5's that they face. We get to put that to the test again in the next few games.

 

I would like to see us beat up on these guys at the bottom end of the A's rotation but will be most interested to see how they handle Milone tonight.

 

All you can really do this time of the year is try to find key match ups and see how players perform in those instances. For example, While Lester had a great outing his last time out, he failed pretty badly when he had a shot as the Sox #1 starter to play the traditional role of stopper in the start before that and in fact has not filled that role adequately in the entire period from the start of 2011 when it has been expected of him. That is a fairly long period of time making it hard to just ignore it. So I still have questions about Lester as a 1 and don't see him as a plus there yet. Getting sort of stomped by the metal of the AL at the start of the season was not particularly encouraging either but it was early and we were unable to put our best foot forward in most instances.

 

Beckett has done enough for me to see him as a solid 2, not more not less. Buch is a question mark as a 3 and Doubront and Bard are pluses as the 4 and the 5.

 

The offense has been great at times against pretty crummy pitching and has been stifled at times by pitchers that you would not think would dominate them to such a degree. I still don't see this as a pitching and defense oriented team so the offense must score. Frankly I am glad it is Milone tonight as this might be another of those early season match up games that gives us the means for some early benchmarking of this year's Sox especially as it relates to left handers. He is not great, he is not terrible. He should not show signs of dominance even over a Sox offense that lacks Ells and CC. If anything Ells and CC would not be as critical against a left hander anyway.

 

After tonight most of my interest will likely be focused on the 4 and 5 rotation comparison questions. If we can continue to put our guys in the plus column over the guys they face, that has got to be a very good thing for us.

[SoxFanForsyth]

So based upon 3 partial seasons, he is a dominant force to be reckoned with? And obviously ERA is the best stat for pitchers? Cmon man. Consistency would be appreciated. Buchholz threw well, when he was healthy. Thing is, he is never healthy and he is coming back from a spinal fracture. He's had to alter his motion and with it, he's lost velocity. That lost velocity has taken away his capacity to put hitter away and he is subsequently required to get into long counts and get hit harder than previous.

 

And for those who think that he "always starts a season poorly", his career ERA in April is 3.83. It is his second worst month behind July for some reason, but he is not epically bad. Buch's ERA is 8.87, WHIP is nearly 2, his K rate is below 4.5, and his K/BB is 1.1. Guys, that is absolutely f***ing abysmal.

 

For comparison, would anyone argue that Phil Hughes has sucked thus far this yr? I wouldnt, hell, I want him out of the rotation. And his ERA (7.88), WHIP (1.88), K rate (9.6) and K/BB (2.8) are all SIGNIFICANTLY better. But Hughes sucks and Buchholz is just a little "rusty". Now, he might end up miraculously righting the ship and getting back to his shortened season career high of dominance. But I think it is pretty likely that he doesnt get there this season at least.

 

Also, the "rusty" idea is assinine as well. He had an entire spring training and has had a full month of starting. He's 2 months into throwing against big league competition after his return from last yrs injury. He's not rusty, he sucks balls right now

 

When you look at his past 355 innings of work and see an ERA of 3.10, yes, you can absolutely expect him to return to those numbers.

 

And don't give me the Phil Hughes bullcrap. He had a good 39 IP in 2010. After that he posted a 4.98 ERA for the remainder of the year over the remaining 137 IP. Buchholz has shown that when he's healthy, he is a very good pitcher.

 

You just refuse to believe that because you're a Yankee fan and you're biased, which is fine, but that's what it is.

 

Taking 4 starts of Buchholz this season and saying he's not a lock to return to the form he was in during his 355 innings prior to that is ridiculous. His velocity is picking up. It's his location that he's missing right now. That's a sure sign of rust.

[BornToRun]

When you look at his past 355 innings of work and see an ERA of 3.10, yes, you can absolutely expect him to return to those numbers.

 

And don't give me the Phil Hughes bullcrap. He had a good 39 IP in 2010. After that he posted a 4.98 ERA for the remainder of the year over the remaining 137 IP. Buchholz has shown that when he's healthy, he is a very good pitcher.

 

You just refuse to believe that because you're a Yankee fan and you're biased, which is fine, but that's what it is.

 

Taking 4 starts of Buchholz this season and saying he's not a lock to return to the form he was in during his 355 innings prior to that is ridiculous. His velocity is picking up. It's his location that he's missing right now. That's a sure sign of rust.

 

Anyone who thinks Phil Hughes can compare to the success that clay buchholz has had is insane. Buchholz is coming off of a bad injury and still shaking off the rust, Hughes is just a prospect bust and an awful pitcher.

[a700hitter]

Anyone who thinks Phil Hughes can compare to the success that clay buchholz has had is insane. Buchholz is coming off of a bad injury and still shaking off the rust' date=' Hughes is just a prospect bust and an awful pitcher.[/quote']Hughes is still only 26 years old. He had a very good season in 2010 making the All Star team. In 2009, he had an excellent full year in the pen. Buchholz is 27 and has had 1 good season. It certainly looks like Hughes is going to be a bust at this point, but coming off 2010, no one would have expected that. Buch is not a slam dunk comeback to All Star status. The comparison here is not between Hughes and Buchholz. It is a comparison between the Yankees and Red Sox organizations. The Yankees have not put themselves in a position where they need Hughes to bounce back to 2010 form. The Red Sox are heavily relying on Buchholz returning to 2010 form. That's the comparison and the difference between the 2 organizations. Buch is not a slam dunk to make it back to 2010 form. The medical staff never identified the cause of his back injury, so how can they know if it has been addressed? The 2012 Sox cannot afford to see 2011 Buchholz. That much is pretty clear.

[kapsis21]

So based upon 3 partial seasons, he is a dominant force to be reckoned with? And obviously ERA is the best stat for pitchers? Cmon man. Consistency would be appreciated. Buchholz threw well, when he was healthy. Thing is, he is never healthy and he is coming back from a spinal fracture. He's had to alter his motion and with it, he's lost velocity. That lost velocity has taken away his capacity to put hitter away and he is subsequently required to get into long counts and get hit harder than previous.

 

And for those who think that he "always starts a season poorly", his career ERA in April is 3.83. It is his second worst month behind July for some reason, but he is not epically bad. Buch's ERA is 8.87, WHIP is nearly 2, his K rate is below 4.5, and his K/BB is 1.1. Guys, that is absolutely f***ing abysmal.

 

For comparison, would anyone argue that Phil Hughes has sucked thus far this yr? I wouldnt, hell, I want him out of the rotation. And his ERA (7.88), WHIP (1.88), K rate (9.6) and K/BB (2.8) are all SIGNIFICANTLY better. But Hughes sucks and Buchholz is just a little "rusty". Now, he might end up miraculously righting the ship and getting back to his shortened season career high of dominance. But I think it is pretty likely that he doesnt get there this season at least.

 

Also, the "rusty" idea is assinine as well. He had an entire spring training and has had a full month of starting. He's 2 months into throwing against big league competition after his return from last yrs injury. He's not rusty, he sucks balls right now

 

well you have a view point on someone who is coming back from an injury and is pitching 94mph but not locating. and based on his 4 outings you have made your decision that Buch is never going to be the same he was. yet Pineda whom you initially made the comparison cannot hold the ball for 1 year at least.. so lets not even go there.

i would like to believe otherwise and the perfect word used here is rusty

the comparison of Hughes and Buchholz since they came out the same time and Buch already has a no hitter under his belt is 1ERA + difference in the 6 years span.

[BornToRun]

Hughes is still only 26 years old. He had a very good season in 2010 making the All Star team. In 2009' date=' he had an excellent full year in the pen. Buchholz is 27 and has had 1 good season. It certainly looks like Hughes is going to be a bust at this point, but coming off 2010, no one would have expected that. Buch is not a slam dunk comeback to All Star status. The comparison here is not between Hughes and Buchholz. It is a comparison between the Yankees and Red Sox organizations. The Yankees have not put themselves in a position where they need Hughes to bounce back to 2010 form. The Red Sox are heavily relying on Buchholz returning to 2010 form. That's the comparison and the difference between the 2 organizations. Buch is not a slam dunk to make it back to 2010 form. The medical staff never identified the cause of his back injury, so how can they know if it has been addressed? The 2012 Sox cannot afford to see 2011 Buchholz. That much is pretty clear.[/quote']

 

We could get by with 2011 clay if he stays healthy. And I think you might wanna take another look at hughes 2010. He ha a decent few starts then fell off of a cliff. He had one decent year as a reliever and a string of good starts in early 2010, he's been horrible aside from that. The 18 wins are pretty but are more a result of solid run support than great pitching prowess. And for the record, give me our current starting 5 over theirs any day of the week.

[a700hitter]

We could get by with 2011 clay if he stays healthy. And I think you might wanna take another look at hughes 2010. He ha a decent few starts then fell off of a cliff. He had one decent year as a reliever and a string of good starts in early 2010' date=' he's been horrible aside from that. The 18 wins are pretty but are more a result of solid run support than great pitching prowess. And for the record, give me our current starting 5 over theirs any day of the week.[/quote']Hughes had a very good first half of 2010. Again, the comparison is not between Hughes and Buchholz, but rather that we need 2010 Buchholz back and the Yankees are strong enough that they can take Hughes out and shoot him and still be a powerhouse.

[BornToRun]

Hughes had a very good first half of 2010. Again' date=' the comparison is not between Hughes and Buchholz, but rather that we need 2010 Buchholz back and the Yankees are strong enough that they can take Hughes out and shoot him and still be a powerhouse.[/quote']

 

Why can't we get by without clay? We have a solid rotation with depth in cook provided we do put him in the pen and dice k on his way back. It isn't like the Yankees have a great rotation. It's cc, nova, then question marks.

[a700hitter]

Why can't we get by without clay? We have a solid rotation with depth in cook provided we do put him in the pen and dice k on his way back. It isn't like the Yankees have a great rotation. It's cc' date=' nova, then question marks.[/quote']Kuroda isn't a question mark, and Pettitte is a very nice depth option. Also, the Yankees have a lights out bullpen. We have a group of arsonists.

[kapsis21]

Hughes had a very good first half of 2010. Again' date=' the comparison is not between Hughes and Buchholz, but rather that we need 2010 Buchholz back and the Yankees are strong enough that they can take Hughes out and shoot him and still be a powerhouse.[/quote']

 

not true about the starting rotation, true about the bullpen..

yankees are 25th overall in pitching and we are 29th..