The Catcher and SS positions

[Dojji]

It's true that the AL has become a much more... defensive league recently. I don't know what's driving that trend.

[DirtDog]

The tendencies of the league are always changing and evolving. Remember how many good hitting shortstops there were in the AL in the 90s? Jeter, A-Rod, Nomar, Visquel, Guzman. There's not too many stars at SS for the AL these days. Lowrie? Peralta? Aybar? Andrus? lol

[BecKett]

Seems like most of Salty's hits come in big spots too. I guess he's picking the right time to contribute.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Seems like most of Salty's hits come in big spots too. I guess he's picking the right time to contribute.

 

Yeah. He's hitting .273 with runners on base. That's pretty solid.

[yeszir]

It's true that the AL has become a much more... defensive league recently. I don't know what's driving that trend.

 

PED testing?

[DirtDog]

I think it's kind of cool how much pitching is making a comeback. I really watching 2-1, 3-2 ballgames and the recent abundance of no-nos rather than 10-9 slugfests. Watching well pitched game reminds me of watching Pedro back in the day. Kind of didn't care what Troy O'Leary was doing at the plate just wanted to see Pedro dominate.

[Dipre]

It's true that the AL has become a much more... defensive league recently. I don't know what's driving that trend.

 

A combination of the fallout from the steroid where many teams were stuck with all-hit, no field players making massive amounts of money (See: Giambi, Jason) and a newfound emphasis on run prevention (Preventing a run is the next best thing to scoring one some would say).

[BornToRun]

Looked it up today and Salty is hitting .250 during his last 10 and Tek is hitting .292 so far in May. I don't think Tek's numbers will hold of course but it's nice to see some life out of the catcher's spot.

[SCM33]

Salty with home run #2.

 

Iv'e bashed him all year long. Credit where it is do, I dont hide when I make my strong statements/comments/posts, especially since I can be condescending at times.

 

I could say that Lester hasn't looked comfortable throwing to him, but thats petty.

 

The kid's approach has been much better offensively.

 

I said before, offense wasn't the issue. People predicted that he'd hit. Defense is what was killing him because he wasn't doing ANYTHING with the bat. At least he is starting to justify his AB's now.

[Will617]

A combination of the fallout from the steroid where many teams were stuck with all-hit' date=' no field players making massive amounts of money (See: Giambi, Jason) and a newfound emphasis on run prevention (Preventing a run is the next best thing to scoring one some would say).[/quote']

 

Teams did more research, and found that defense actually mattered. I think that's probably the biggest factor.

I've also read somewhere that one run prevented is worth 1.1 runs scored, so preventing a run may even be better.

[Dipre]

Teams did more research, and found that defense actually mattered. I think that's probably the biggest factor.

I've also read somewhere that one run prevented is worth 1.1 runs scored, so preventing a run may even be better.

 

I agree with most of the research on defense and its impact on the game of baseball, and i've been a fervent proponent of it on site, however, i disagree that a run prevented is worth more than a run scored, because you can win a 15-14 slugfest, but you can't win a 0-0 ballgame. You need to score to win.

[SoxSport]

Salty with home run #2.

 

Iv'e bashed him all year long. Credit where it is do, I dont hide when I make my strong statements/comments/posts, especially since I can be condescending at times.

 

I could say that Lester hasn't looked comfortable throwing to him, but thats petty.

 

The kid's approach has been much better offensively.

 

I said before, offense wasn't the issue. People predicted that he'd hit. Defense is what was killing him because he wasn't doing ANYTHING with the bat. At least he is starting to justify his AB's now.

 

You got to give Salty credit for trying hard. He's been put in a tough position, and he may succeed yet.

[ORS]

I agree with most of the research on defense and its impact on the game of baseball' date=' and i've been a fervent proponent of it on site, however, i disagree that a run prevented is worth more than a run scored, because you can win a 15-14 slugfest, but you can't win a 0-0 ballgame. You need to score to win.[/quote']

The concept of preventing scoring being more valuable than prolific scoring is tied to the pythag expected win pct. In the mathematical formula for a team's pythag, assuming run prevention / run scoring is traded one for one from the same baseline, the run prevention yields better pythag results. So, if you believe pythag is meaningful, then a run prevented is better than a run scored.

[a700hitter]

The concept of preventing scoring being more valuable than prolific scoring is tied to the pythag expected win pct. In the mathematical formula for a team's pythag' date=' assuming run prevention / run scoring is traded one for one from the same baseline, the run prevention yields better pythag results. So, if you believe pythag is meaningful, then a run prevented is better than a run scored.[/quote']I'll stick with the stats from the back of the baseball card. That's what got me interested in the game, and they are still the foundation of every fantasy league in which I participate. This advanced mathematical analysis does nothing for my enjoyment or understanding of the game, but that's just me. I equate advanced math with something that is not fun.

[ORS]

I'll stick with the stats from the back of the baseball card. That's what got me interested in the game' date=' and they are still the foundation of every fantasy league in which I participate. This advanced mathematical analysis does nothing for my enjoyment or understanding of the game, but that's just me. I equate advanced math with something that is not fun.[/quote']

It's not advanced math, it's simple statistical studies. There's no multiple variable calculus involved. They are just using the mountains of data compiled in baseball to figure out a little more than what's on the back of the baseball card. It's fine if you find no interest there, but in many cases your lack of interest comes across as derision (don't worry, this isn't one of them).

[a700hitter]

It's not advanced math' date=' it's simple statistical studies. There's no multiple variable calculus involved. They are just using the mountains of data compiled in baseball to figure out a little more than what's on the back of the baseball card. It's fine if you find no interest there, but in many cases your lack of interest comes across as derision (don't worry, this isn't one of them).[/quote']If I wanted to deride, I am quite adept at it.

[Dojji]

The concept of preventing scoring being more valuable than prolific scoring is tied to the pythag expected win pct. In the mathematical formula for a team's pythag' date=' assuming run prevention / run scoring is traded one for one from the same baseline, the run prevention yields better pythag results. So, if you believe pythag is meaningful, then a run prevented is better than a run scored.[/quote']

 

That's probably true if the average for a team scoring for a year remains somewhere between 720-750 runs, I imagine if that goes down too far the pendulum swings the other way. If the average drops to, say, 650 runs (Dead Ball Era, Part 2), a run scored becomes worth a lot more than a prevented run just based on the principle of scarcity.

[snydersminipretzels]

Bill James - "I made baseball as fun as doing your taxes."

 

Unless you work for a baseball team, I don't understand why people would care what some person's WARP is.

[The Celtbot]

Just thought I'd throw it out there, Salty has played really well offensively as of late. He's hit safely in 5 straight games and has it 3 HR's in his last 4 games. Looks like he's finally starting to come around and look more comfortable at the plate.

[BigPapiEnFuego]

As of right now Salty needs to play more. Him and Varitek are a wash defensively, but Salty is startng to show he is better offensively. Watching Varitek hit is excruciating.

[ORS]

That's probably true if the average for a team scoring for a year remains somewhere between 720-750 runs' date=' I imagine if that goes down too far the pendulum swings the other way. If the average drops to, say, 650 runs (Dead Ball Era, Part 2), a run scored becomes worth a lot more than a prevented run just based on the principle of scarcity.[/quote']

Actually, using the traditional pythag, the further you slide to the lower end of the scale, the more value you find in run prevention.

[ORS]

Bill James - "I made baseball as fun as doing your taxes."

 

Unless you work for a baseball team, I don't understand why people would care what some person's WARP is.

Translation: I don't get it, so I'll make fun of it.

[snydersminipretzels]

Translation: I don't get it' date=' so I'll make fun of it.[/quote']

 

That quote was from Bill James.

 

I get it. It's not that hard to grasp. I just fail to understand its appeal to a fan. Something you said was understandable not six or seven posts before.

[ORS]

That was a drunk post, sorry for the zinger.

 

Question, is it really far fetched to understand why people find interest in analytical methods that reveal the best players objectively in their favorite sport? I would expect to find interest there, not be confused by said interest, even if I didn't share it.

[Dojji]

Actually' date=' using the traditional pythag, the further you slide to the lower end of the scale, the more value you find in run prevention.[/quote']

 

I really disagree. Sure, Pythagorean value increases, but that's countered by scarcity. Basically, if a run is harder to come by, it is by definition more valuable to score one simply by the nature of being a thing that is harder to do,, even if it is also still very valuable under pythagorean theorem to prevent one.

[ORS]

I really disagree. Sure' date=' Pythagorean value increases, but that's countered by scarcity. Basically, if a run is harder to come by, it is by definition more valuable to score one simply by the nature of being a thing that is harder to do,, even if it is also still very valuable under pythagorean theorem to prevent one.[/quote']

You are getting hung up on scarcity, even though in that last sentence you show some potential to see the light here. Scarcity works both ways in a competion for the scarce item. It's good to have it, it's also good to deny it to the opposition. If you drop your personal bias toward having it, you can accept what statistics tells you.

 

Using your example of a 650 league average, let's a assume a true .500 team, one that scored/allowed the league average of 650. Change the delta R to one, making it 651/650 for your "scarcity" argument, and 650/649 for the run prevention case.

 

The results are...

 

651/650 = .500768

650/649 = .500769

 

It's a very negligible difference, but it is better to have prevented a run than it is to have scored an additional one.

[Dojji]

OK, I obviously didn't get my point across, that's probably my amazing communications skills again lol.

 

My point wasn't technically that 1 run is more valuable scored than prevented. More that really good run producers are harder to get than run preventers. Therein lies your confounding variable of scarcity -- if it is harder to produce a run scoring unit than it is to field a good run preventing one, you still need to build on the basis of scoring runs rather than preventing them even if preventing them is, one for one, more valuable to the success of the team..

[ORS]

OK, I obviously didn't get my point across, that's probably my amazing communications skills again lol.

 

My point wasn't technically that 1 run is more valuable scored than prevented. More that really good run producers are harder to get than run preventers. Therein lies your confounding variable of scarcity -- if it is harder to produce a run scoring unit than it is to field a good run preventing one, you still need to build on the basis of scoring runs rather than preventing them even if preventing them is, one for one, more valuable to the success of the team..

No, you need to analyze the tradeoff. There is not a great shortage of good run producers. There is a shorage of good run producers who can adequately field certain positions on the field. You don't just put a good run producer out there over a good defender arbitrarily. You weight the expected RS/RA for each and put the guy out there who you think gives you the most value.

[RedSoxFaithful]

As of right now Salty needs to play more. Him and Varitek are a wash defensively' date=' but Salty is startng to show he is better offensively. Watching Varitek hit is excruciating.[/quote']

 

To be fair Tek is hitting well over his last 10 with an avg. of over .300. He just doesn't have the power stroke working like Salty and when he does get out he often looks real bad. Not really disagreeing woth you just saying Tek is showing signs of life offensively as well. I also think Salty is improving as a defensive catcher and will cntinue to improve as he become more comfortable with the staff and them with him. He did a pretty damn good job of catching Wake last night.

 

Jed Lowrie is also a pretty terrible defensive SS.

[Dojji]

Tek always does this early in the year. Ignore it.

 

Salty's outburst on the other hand might be a much hoped for sign of legitimate progress, and I'd like to see him get out there a bit more often to allow him to keep his groove on. Unlike Tek, Salty has the ability to actually improve, so his skills should be cultivated and developed more so than Varitek's