Spring Training Game Thread

[Dipre]

Spring Training Games: The absolutely best predictor of regular season success or failure for MLB players.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Sarcasm ftw.

[EXman369]

Jenks will be fine

[Station 13]

hey Buck, go f*** yourself.

[Station 13]

Drew - birds killer.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Is Duckworth even on the roster?

[Palodios]

I would certainly hope not. But then again, he's pitching better than our starters have lately.

 

Also: Dice-k has looked great lately

[Station 13]

Spears, Sutton will get some major league time this year.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Yeah, his last 3 starts were good. I also don't see how you can say Duckworth is pitching better than our starters after just 2 innings of work.

[Palodios]

That was a joke, mostly based on the recent poor performances of the starters.

[snydersminipretzels]

Spears' date=' Sutton will get some major league time this year.[/quote']

 

Let's hope not.

[Station 13]

http://cache.boston.com/bonzai-fba/Globe_Photo/2011/03/24/reyes__1301006790_7287.jpg

[Flynnatic10]

That looks like a white Pablo Sandoval.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Pic reminds me of El Guapo just with more facial hair.

[SCM33]

Spring Training Games: The absolutely best predictor of regular season success or failure for MLB players.

 

Josh Beckett: Spring training this year, Regular season last year......all the same.

[Dipre]

If Beckett pitches well (and i believe he will) you will have the honor and pleasure of being quoted on my sig as part of an "i told you so" campaign.

 

Get excited!

[SCM33]

If Beckett pitches well (and i believe he will) you will have the honor and pleasure of being quoted on my sig as part of an "i told you so" campaign.

 

Get excited!

 

In your sig currently.....I see the definition for backpedaling. This is something that I do not do.

 

If he does well, I will fully take responsibility for being wrong. I bragged to no end about being right about the whole Randy Moss trade so I understand my strong statements about Beckett could bite me in the ass in the end and I am more than capable of admitting being wrong.

 

Dont be confused though, I do not wish him to fail, if those were my intentions I would be a Yankee fan. If he does well, the Sox do well so its a win/win....I am just pessimistic about his productivity for this season.

[Keeper]

Spring Training Games: The absolutely best predictor of regular season success or failure for MLB players.

 

Regardless, Jenks had like 3 blowups exactly like the one last night in 2010. He has more in store for 2011.

[Dipre]

In your sig currently.....I see the definition for backpedaling. This is something that I do not do.

 

If he does well, I will fully take responsibility for being wrong. I bragged to no end about being right about the whole Randy Moss trade so I understand my strong statements about Beckett could bite me in the ass in the end and I am more than capable of admitting being wrong.

 

Dont be confused though, I do not wish him to fail, if those were my intentions I would be a Yankee fan. If he does well, the Sox do well so its a win/win....I am just pessimistic about his productivity for this season.

 

You got it all wrong. What i meant is that i will quote you (replacing my existing quote) saying that Beckett sucks so that you can be constantly reminded that you kept riding the "Beckett sucks" wagon for months, i wasn't saying that you backpedal at all.

 

Regardless' date=' Jenks had like 3 blowups exactly like the one last night in 2010. He has more in store for 2011.[/quote']

 

Honest question: Did you watch the game, or at least something other than the box score?

 

I ask you this because with something other than a bunch of career minor leaguers playing he gets out of that inning giving up three runs, tops.

 

And either way, what pitcher doesn't have a couple blow-ups per season?

 

I see the back-patting when March isn't even over as kind of early, wouldn't you say?

[Keeper]

Honest question: Did you watch the game, or at least something other than the box score?

 

I ask you this because with something other than a bunch of career minor leaguers playing he gets out of that inning giving up three runs, tops.

 

And either way, what pitcher doesn't have a couple blow-ups per season?

 

I see the back-patting when March isn't even over as kind of early, wouldn't you say?

 

I watched the game, and you're one to talk about back-patting.

[Dipre]

I watched the game' date=' and you're one to talk about back-patting. [/quote']

 

But i do my back-patting after the fact has happened. Not in Spring Training of the Season before. Get my drift?

 

Anyways, if you did watch the game, then i see even less where you're coming from. the Right Fielder looked like he had never played the OF in his life, and the "double" that scored the first run off of Jenks should have been caught. Add to that the error, and it wasn't as much of an implosion as much a showing of epic defensive ineptitude.

[a700hitter]

Spears' date=' Sutton will get some major league time this year.[/quote']

 

Not before the rosters expand in September,if then. If we see them before September, the Sox will be in deep do do.

[Station 13]

FORT MYERS, Fla. -- Daniel Bard and Jonathan Papelbon both participated in a simulated game at the Red Sox player development complex on Monday.

 

Bard tossed 13 pitches in facing four batters, three of which he struck out.

 

Papelbon, meanwhile, struggled with his command during his inning of work. Only nine of his 21 pitches were for strikes, and several of his misses were in the dirt. He walked two of the five hitters he faced, with one strikeout. Papelbon did induce a pop-up from Carl Crawford.

 

Damn you papelbon. damn you

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

As long as he doesn't make me rage so much like he did last year and gets his s*** together soon I'm good.

[BigPapiEnFuego]

I bet Bard will be the closer by June. All Star Break at the latest

[a700hitter]

Damn you papelbon. damn you

He's working on the secondary pitches. If he can't get to the point where he can throw quality strikes with them, he'll be in trouble.

[Palodios]

Surprisingly enough, the Sox have a bit of leverage over Papelbon. He probably knows his elite closer contract is slipping away, so if the Sox claim he's injured and needs a few "AAA rehab appearances" in June/July, he very well might go along with it. And the second they move him to middle relief, his value plummets.

[FredLynn]

If Beckett pitches well (and i believe he will) you will have the honor and pleasure of being quoted on my sig as part of an "i told you so" campaign.

 

Get excited!

 

 

There is no evidence that Beckett has turned it around. He has lost a couple of mph off his fastball, and according to fangraphs, his pitches have also lost a good deal of movement. Furthermore, he has been pitching poorly for a year now.

 

Here is the evidence of decreased movement of his pitches. Compare 2007 to 2010; see how many more of his pitches in 2010 didn't move at all vertically or horizontally compared with 07. You can also see that he has lost a couple of MPH off his fastball here: http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxg.aspx?playerid=510&position=P&season=2010&date=0&dh=0

 

Here is an article (from about a month ago or so) that implies that his chances of turning it around are not good:

 

The historical significance of Beckett’s 2010 John Tomase

 

In today’s Herald we examined the production of pitchers in their 30s after they had seasons as poor as Josh Beckett’s 2010 (6-6, 5.78). The expectation had been that history would be littered with good pitchers who had similarly down years but bounced back to regain their prior form.

 

Except it didn’t happen that way at all. Here’s a link to the baseball-reference chart showing the 69 seasons where a pitcher in his 30s compiled an ERA of 5.75 or higher in at least 125 innings pitched. In only three cases did the pitcher recover to post so much as one season on par with his prior performance: Darryl Kile, Tim Belcher, and Livan Hernandez.

 

Otherwise, the results were universally horrible, and basically claimed the careers of some pretty good pitchers — Jack Morris, David Cone and Dave Stewart, to name three.

 

Of course, those pitchers — as well as many others on the list — were in their late 30s and at the end of their careers anyway. Beckett’s down year came at age 30, when there should be plenty of time to return to his All-Star self.

 

Except the numbers don’t bear that out either. Of the 18 pitchers on the list to have their down year at age 30, only Kile rebounded thereafter. Six-time 20-game winner Wes Ferrell averaged 19-13 with a 3.86 ERA from 1929-1937 with the Guardians and Red Sox. Then he went 15-10 with a 6.28 ERA at age 30 and only won three games the rest of his career.

 

Or there’s Jaime Navarro. While never anywhere near as good as Beckett, he was pretty decent for a time. He won 17 games in 1992 with the Brewers and his 3.28 ERA ranked 10th in the NL in 1995.

 

At age 29 in 1996, he went 15-12 with a 3.92 ERA for the Cubs and tossed 236.2 innings. He was considered solid enough to earn $5 million a year from the White Sox in free agency, but during three years on the other side of Chicago, his ERA never dropped below 5.79 and he lost 43 games.

 

How does this relate to Beckett? Maybe not at all. Few pitchers of his pedigree have ever struggled so mightily during a season in their prime, and it might prove to be the aberration in an otherwise stellar five years.

 

But it’s worth noting that history is not on his side.

[Dipre]

Beckett lost velocity on his fastball? News to me, because his average fastball velocity last year was 93.5 MPH, down from 94.3 the two previous years, however, over the last two months, his velocity creeped up into an average of 94.1, so i have no clue where you came up with that info, good sir.

 

As for the Tomase article, it seems like more of a "It's Spring Training so there's nothing to write about". And it is, in fact, Spring Training, which is indicative of nothing.

 

Anyways, Beckett's stuff is still good, but his stamina seems to be lacking, and until he actually gets shelled in the regular season i won't declare him "one and done", because like everyone else here, i don't know the specifics of his throwing program, and i haven't seen any indication of worry from the team.

[FredLynn]

I bet Bard will be the closer by June. All Star Break at the latest

 

And Papelbon will be traded. Makes too much sense to do otherwise.