2011 Red Sox Predictions

[EXman369]

I see Lowrie taking the SS job during Spring Training.

 

Fair enough i mean this is a prediction thread a place for people to kick the tires around a little. I hope that you are right because with the stats u predicted for the sox were gonna be a 100+ win team

[SoxFanForsyth]

Yes sir! I honestly thin they'll win 102 this year. But I was definitely a little greedy with my predictions.

[EXman369]

I got them winning 99 but im too focused on the redraft right now ill do my predictions once the draft cools down a little

[Dipre]

I'm using the Bill James projections, whose formula basically creates a "middle ground" (or average) of the player's overall major league numbers, meaning that it skewed Lowrie's HR/FB% higher than his minor league average may indicate. He's an OBP guy with gap power who may hit homers on the mid-teens on a good year. But for him, home runs aren't that important, and they were never a big part of his game, whereas getting on base and hitting the ball the other way were.

 

I'll take a .370 OBP with 35 doubles and 12 homers every time over a .340 OBP with 30 doubles and 22 homers. The first stat-line is the one Lowrie has always been projected to have.

 

Also, Terry Francona said he'll be the ultilityman out of ST, and it makes sense to showcase Scutaro at SS so they can trade him for a decent return.

[ORS]

I don't get it. Like you said, the projections create a middle ground. A middle ground that has Lowrie knocking the ball out of the park 17 times. Certainly a suggestion that he overperforms by 2 while Drew underperforms by 4 in that particular counting stat isn't out of the realm of possibilty, especially when people are just throwing out their opinions. It's not really something worthy of critique, IMO.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I don't get it. Like you said' date=' the projections create a middle ground. A middle ground that has Lowrie knocking the ball out of the park 17 times. Certainly a suggestion that he overperforms by 2 while Drew underperforms by 4 in that particular counting stat isn't out of the realm of possibilty, especially when people are just throwing out their opinions. It's not really something worthy of critique, IMO.[/quote']

 

Dipre is just a Lowrie hater, but it's no big deal. I can see his argument, but at the same time I agree with you in that it's not completely far off to make a prediction that Lowrie hits more HR this year than Drew.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Dipre is just a Lowrie hater' date=' but it's no big deal. I can see his argument, but at the same time I agree with you in that it's not completely far off to make a prediction that Lowrie hits more HR this year than Drew.[/quote']

 

False, good sir.

[SoxFanForsyth]

False' date=' good sir.[/quote']

 

Really? Maybe I'm wrong. Every post I've seen, it sounds like he hates him.

 

Then again, every post he's arguing about Lowrie regards OPS and power. Maybe he just see's him more as an OBP guy and does like him in a different light than everyone else. :dunno:

[Palodios]

I was confused about it at first too. He'll go off for a whole page about injuries, and consistency, HR/FB rates and SSS, and then go ahead and slip in a one-line comment making a prediction that he'll have an OBP of .370 and that he'll be an incredible player, and it sort of gets completely lost in the post.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I'm using the Bill James projections' date=' whose formula basically creates a "middle ground" (or average) of the player's overall major league numbers, [b']meaning that it skewed Lowrie's HR/FB% higher than his minor league average may indicate[/b]. He's an OBP guy with gap power who may hit homers on the mid-teens on a good year. But for him, home runs aren't that important, and they were never a big part of his game, whereas getting on base and hitting the ball the other way were.

 

Troy Tulo - 10.2% HR/FB in his first 3 seasons (06-08). Since then, 15.9%

Michael Young - 7.6% HR/FB his first 7 seasons (02-08). Since then, 12.8%

 

I'm not saying that Lowrie is going to be a Tulo type hitter, but he could very well be a Michael Young type hitter. 20 HR/season.

 

Lets say Lowrie has 420 AB's this year. That's playing about 100-110 games. At his career FB% of 50.1%, he would hit 211 fly balls. If he hits 20 HR, that would be a 9.5% HR/FB%. An increase of 3% from his career numbers, considering other than last year, he had his rookie season plus a season with a broken wrist, I think that's an extremely reasonable expectation.

[Dipre]

People (like SoxfanForsyth) are too busy assigning an idea of what they think i'm saying, instead of reading what i actually say.

 

@ORS: It's not a critique, it's a tempering of expectations. Due to the SSS issues, his HR numbers are inflated, while i basically mention it for the sake of argument (what the hell else am i going to do in the off-season while i wait for the juggernaut to awaken?) , the attempt at creating a fairly accurate description of what the player could do could in a non-biased argument is tempting to me because it gets the Lowrie-lovers' panties in a twist.

 

There, i said it.

[SoxFanForsyth]

People (like SoxfanForsyth) are too busy assigning an idea of what they think i'm saying, instead of reading what i actually say.

@ORS: It's not a critique, it's a tempering of expectations. Due to the SSS issues, his HR numbers are inflated, while i basically mention it for the sake of argument (what the hell else am i going to do in the off-season while i wait for the juggernaut to awaken?) , the attempt at creating a fairly accurate description of what the player could do could in a non-biased argument is tempting to me because it gets the Lowrie-lovers' panties in a twist.

 

There, i said it.

 

Well, in fairness, you're not very articulate at times. You argued that Lowrie wouldn't crack 18 HR, then I responded my argument and that James agrees with me. You said that James is the middle ground prediction, and he predicted 17. So we were splitting hairs over 1 HR.

 

Either way - I've stated my case about Lowrie's HR potential. I read your posts fully, for the record.

[Dipre]

I bet you didn't fully read the last one.

 

The problem with the Lowrie love-fest is that even though he has the potential to be an offensively superior SS, people like to brush aside the question marks (which do exist) in order to assign certainty to production that isn't there. So i just give people a little nudge to create discussion, and sure enough, discussion it creates.

 

What i really think? There are questions about his health (people consistenly ignore them), but at his best, he's a guy with superior OBP (.370+) and gap power (440+ SLG) who will hit doubles on the mid-thirties and homeruns in the mid-teens. Going so far as to comparing Lowrie to Tulowitzki and Michael Young (completely different ballplayers) sheds light on a total disregard for the type of player the guy actually is to assign to him the tools that would allow him to be the player you wish he was.

 

Could he develop into a 25-30 hitter? Stranger things have happened.

 

Is it likely? Nope.

 

And for the record, it's not a matter of not being articulate in my posts, but a matter (i'll state it again) of reading too quickly, catching the bait, and ignoring the content in the posts.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I bet you didn't fully read the last one.

 

The problem with the Lowrie love-fest is that even though he has the potential to be an offensively superior SS, people like to brush aside the question marks (which do exist) in order to assign certainty to production that isn't there. So i just give people a little nudge to create discussion, and sure enough, discussion it creates.

 

What i really think? There are questions about his health (people consistenly ignore them), but at his best, he's a guy with superior OBP (.370+) and gap power (440+ SLG) who will hit doubles on the mid-thirties and homeruns in the mid-teens. Going so far as to comparing Lowrie to Tulowitzki and Michael Young (completely different ballplayers) sheds light on a total disregard for the type of player the guy actually is to assign to him the tools that would allow him to be the player you wish he was.

 

Could he develop into a 25-30 hitter? Stranger things have happened.

 

Is it likely? Nope.

 

And for the record, it's not a matter of not being articulate in my posts, but a matter (i'll state it again) of reading too quickly, catching the bait, and ignoring the content in the posts.

 

Alright, maybe I wasn't being quite articulate enough in my posts. I wasn't trying to compare Lowrie to Tulo, and only slightly to Young. The numbers were there to show that there are players whose HR/FB% increases with experience.

 

As far as his injury concerns, I think he's recovered from the wrist injury, and his only other "injury" that I can remember (correct me if I'm wrong) was his mono last year, which does not have any lingering effects. I would venture to say that last year he proved that his wrist problems played no part in his offensive output, and that his wrist can now be considered a thing of the past.

 

For your predictions, I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree. I think his HR/FB% will sit at around 8% for his career, his FB% will probably stay around his career norm of 50.1%, as it is right now, and spread over a course of 550 AB's per season, that projects him to be a 22 HR/season guy.

[SoxSport]

Lowrie clearly has a chance to break out this year. He will probably get a better opportunity to do so than Kalish. You just have to wait and see how things go in ST.

[BSN07]

Lowrie clearly has a chance to break out this year. He will probably get a better opportunity to do so than Kalish. You just have to wait and see how things go in ST.

 

Well yes Lowrie will have a better chance. That's not because of superior talent or something. It's because he only has Marco Scutaro to take Ab's away from. Kalish would be trying to break in with Crawford, Ellsbury, Drew and Cameron in front of him. Kalish will be marinating in AAA this year IMO.

[Red Foreman]

I'm gonna get greedy.

 

Ellsbury hits .297/.356/.420, 9 HR, 63 RBI, 98 Runs Scored, 58 SB

Pedroia hits .305/.378/.470, 18 HR, 86 RBI, 108 Runs Scored

Crawford hits .301/.347/.463, 22 HR, 97 RBI, 114 Runs Scored, 49 SB.

Gonzo hits .338/.418/.612, 46 HR, 138 RBI, 112 Runs Scored

Youk hits .317/.410/.568, 31 HR, 118 RBI, 98 Runs Scored

Ortiz hits .263/.368/.531, 32 HR, 104 RBI, 84 Runs Scored

Drew hits .276/.388/.518, 18 HR, 68 RBI, 79 Runs Scored

Salty hits .267/.338/.468, 13 HR, 47 RBI, 52 Runs Scored

Lowrie hits .282/.361/.498, 19 HR, 63 RBI, 72 Runs Scored.

 

Lester - 20-8, 3.24 ERA

Buchholz - 17-10, 3.42 ERA

Beckett - 16-9, 3.85 ERA

Lackey - 15-7, 3.96 ERA

DiceK - 14-6, 4.14 ERA

 

Maybe greedy but all of these numbers seem attainable. I'm slightly more optimistic than you for Beckett and Buchholz and slightly more pessimistic than you on Youk, Papi and Lowrie (I think Scutaro gets the SS job. I'm considerably more pessimistic than you on Salty.

[Ravenous916]

Pitching:

 

Starters:

 

Jon Lester: 3.53 ERA, 204.0 IP, 195 K, 1.27 WHIP, 32 GS.

 

Clay Bucholz: 3.54 ERA, 193 IP, 168 K, 1.28 WHIP, 29 GS.

 

Josh Beckett: 3.80 ERA, 168 IP, 155 K, 1.27 WHIP, 26 GS.

 

John Lackey: 3.89 ERA, 227.0 IP, 179 K, 1.31 WHIP, 33 GS.

 

Daisuke Matsuzaka: 3.85 ERA, 173 IP, 158 K, 1.34 WHIP, 27 GS.

 

Bullpen:

 

Tim Wakefield: 115 IP, 4.07 ERA, 1.31 WHIP.

 

Scott Atchison: 64 IP, 3.52 ERA, 1.28 WHIP.

 

Felix Doubront: (Not available)

 

Dan Wheeler: 47 IP, 2.87 ERA, 1.11 WHIP.

 

Bobby Jenks: 49 IP, 3.12 ERA, 1.24 WHIP.

 

Dan Bard: 76 IP, 2.72 ERA, 1.16 WHIP.

 

Jon Papelbon: 69 IP, 2.61 ERA, 1.09 WHIP.

 

Those are some generous ERAs, hope its right:thumbsup:

[Station 13]

Those are some generous ERAs' date=' hope its right:thumbsup:[/quote']

 

Better defense and bullpen, yup our starters will love it.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I'll put the Over/Under on wins from our Starters at 76.

 

I'll put the Over/Under on wins from our Bullpen at 25.

 

Let's see how it turns out.

[diony]

Agon- .300/.400/.570-.600, 35 HR, 125 RBI, 40 2B

Pedroia- .310/.375/.470, 20 HR,85 RBI, 50 2B

Scutaro- .265/.335/.400, 10 HR, 55 RBI, 35 2B

Youkilis- .290/.390/.560, 25 HR, 100 RBI, 40 2B

Crawford .285/.360/.500 20 HR, 90 RBI, 40 2B, 40 steals

Ellsbury- .295/.360/ 12 HR, 70 RBI, 35 2B, 50 steals

Drew- .275/.390/.520 18 HR, 80 RBI, 30 2B

Ortiz- .260/.360/.540 35 HR, 95 RBI, 32 2B

Salty- .260/.330/.400 10 HR, 60 RBI, 20 2B(100-110 games)

Tek- .250/.330/.410 10 HR, 40 RBI, 15 2B

Lowrie- .280/.375/.520 12 HR, 40 RBI, 20 2B

Cameron- .250/.330/.460 15 HR, 20 2B

 

Lester- 20-9 2.95 ERA 210 IP 230 K 75 BB

Buccholz- 17-6 3.15 ERA 190 IP 140 K 60 BB

Beckett- 16-8 3.75 ERA 210 IP 200K 60 BB

Lackey- 15-10 4.50 ERA 200 IP 145K 50 BB

Dice-K 15-7 4.70 ERA 180 IP 140 K 85 BB

 

Limited playing time in August and September, and he suddenly became Tulo.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Limited playing time in August and September' date=' and he suddenly became Tulo.[/quote']

 

Let's be real here. Tulo slugged .570 last year, and Lowrie slugged .526 in 170 AB's. It's not like he just slugged .530 in 47 AB's. 170 AB's is a pretty solid sample size.

 

In fact, if you wanted to project his output at 550 AB's, with a confidence level of 95% and a confidence interval of 5, you would only need a sample size of 180 AB's.

[Dipre]

180 AB's is enough to project a trend a statistical trend over 550 AB's? News to me.

 

And i only mention this for the sake of factual accuracy. If it was a Yankees player you'd be singing a whole different tune.

 

There are only three players on the Red Sox realistically capable of a SLG% of .520 or greater during a full season: Youk, Gonzales and Ortiz.

 

Come on now, let's live in reality here.

[SoxFanForsyth]

So, basically what that is saying, is that, given his 2010 stats in 171 AB's, you can be 95% confident that over the course of 550 AB's, he would hit anywhere from:

 

BA - .277 to .296

Doubles - 40 to 50

HR - 24 to 34

RBI's - 72 to 82

SLG% - .482 to .573

[SoxFanForsyth]

That's fine if you don't believe me. I'm not trying to convince anyone. You can go do the research yourself. Go see what sample size you would need to project 95% accuracy with an interval of 5 and a population of 550.

 

If you think I'm making this up, I'm sorry but I'm not.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I did make a mistake on the stats. It's a 6% acceptable margin of error. So there is a 95% confidence rate that his stats would look like this at 550 AB's:

 

BA: .271 to .304

Doubles - 42 to 48

Homeruns - 27 to 31

RBI's - 72 to 82

SLG% - .495 to .560

[Dipre]

Haha ok buddy. Let's sit on those 42 doubles and 27 Hr's.

[Keeper]

I did make a mistake on the stats. It's a 6% acceptable margin of error. So there is a 95% confidence rate that his stats would look like this at 550 AB's:

 

BA: .271 to .304

Doubles - 42 to 48

Homeruns - 27 to 31

RBI's - 72 to 82

SLG% - .495 to .560

 

You can't make that kind of extrapolatory leap based on what he did in such a SSS. There is optimistic and then there is unrealistic.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I mean what do you want me to say?

 

Was I surprised at the results? Sure.

 

Does this take into account a potential drop off of production? Nope.

 

All it's doing is using statistical analysis to project a 95% confidence rate if he produced consistent with 2010.

 

I would personally put him in the 20-25 HR, 35-40 Doubles category, and I'm not sure that's too far off at all.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Bill James has him hitting 17 HR and 38 doubles in 482 AB's. Is it really that crazy that, given 70 more AB's, he could come up with 5 HR's and 4 or 5 doubles??