Anti Fantasy Semifinals: Y228 v TheKilo

[TheKilo]

Vote for the winner of this matchup starting at 8 am Tuesday

[yankees228]

My roster:

 

Offense:

 

QB: Aaron Rodgers

RB: Ahmad Bradshaw

RB: Reggie Bush

WR: Santonio Holmes

WR: Hakeem Nicks

WR: Eddie Royal

WR: Demaryius Thomas

TE: Chris Cooley

LT: Marcus McNeill

LG: Justin Smiley

C: Jason Brown

RG: Chris Kuper

RT: Ryan Harris

 

Defense (3-4):

 

DE: Marcus Spears

NT: Jay Ratliff

DE: Mike Wright

OLB: DeMarcus Ware

ILB: Curtis Lofton

ILB: Bradie James

OLB: James Harrison

CB: Johnathan Joseph

FS: Antrel Rolle

SS: Roman Harper

CB: Leon Hall

 

BU: Matt Cassel, QB

BU: Kenny Phillips, SS

 

KR/PR: Leon Washington

 

K: Neil Rackers

P: Thomas Morestead

 

Coach: Tom Coughlin

 

I'll post my game-plan/rationale for victory in the next post, but I want to quickly hit on a couple key points here. TK's team is number two in the power rankings, and it deserves to be high, he put together a very good squad. His offense is phenomenal top to bottom, and he should be able to move the ball against most opponents. But there are two main components to a football team, and TK has some serious flaws on the defensive side of the ball, ones that apparently have been overlooked based on the voting in his previous match-ups.

 

His linebackers are solid, but he has some legitimate problems on the defensive line and in the secondary.

 

Defensive Line:

 

Haloti Ngata is excellent, but both of his defensive ends are way out of position. Cameron Wake, while he's having a great year, is a 250 pound 3-4 scheme pass rushing linebacker, playing DE in the 3-4. The average weight at this position is over 290 pounds, and Wake's great pass rushing abilities will be completely ineffective in this role. On the other side is Chris Long, who's a 4-3 pass rushing defensive end, also playing DE in the 3-4. He's undersized for this position, and once again, his pass rushing abilities will be wasted in this scheme. Additionally, having these two players out of position will severely limit TK's ability to defend off tackle running plays.

 

Secondary

 

Again, TK has one good player in this unit. Nick Collins is an excellent ball-hawking safety, but it's downhill from there. Corey Webster is a decent number one corner, but he's going to struggle to consistently defend any of the number one wide receivers in this league. At the other corner, while he has been decent this year, Nate Clements has been on an overall decline since he left Buffalo, and will be 33 years old for this league. Considering where he's at right now, I'd be very surprised if he was an adequate number two corner in three years. At the other safety is Jim Leonhard. Leonhard is decent against the run, but is undersized for a low-playing safety. He's also atrocious in pass coverage, whether it be zone or corners coverage, routinely giving up big plays. Against teams that can stretch the field at both wideout positions, TK is going to really struggle with those two corners and only one safety who can defend the pass.

 

I don't mean to harp on the deficiencies of TK's team, but based on what has been said in his match-ups, I felt like people were completely overlooking these items, and that they needed to be clearly addressed.

 

At some point later tonight I'll post my entire game-plan (and explain how I'll take advantage of the above weaknesses), but I wanted to stress the importance of these individual items.

[italstallianion]

Don't worry Y228, I did notice. I just didn't mention it because his team would blow up his previous round opponents that it didn't really matter.

[yankees228]

Don't worry Y228' date=' I did notice. I just didn't mention it because his team would blow up his previous round opponents that it didn't really matter.[/quote']

 

Fair enough. I realize he has an excellent team, but in such a close match-up I felt like I needed to gain some sort of advantage, and highlighting those key flaws (separate from main post) was the best way to do it.

[italstallianion]

Don't forget to bring them up in your matchup strategy. Some people need it refreshed.

[yankees228]

Don't forget to bring them up in your matchup strategy. Some people need it refreshed.

 

My game-plan and such? Absolutely, just don't have time to do it just this minute, but I'll get it in before the deadline.

[italstallianion]

Me too, I'm taking a breather after my last write up.

[TheKilo]

Y228, I'm surprised you think so little of Webster. He won't intercept passes, but I think he's a more than adequate cover corner. I also think that Wake is a criminally underrated player but I also have Chris Canty on my bench to spell either him or Long. Both are also young and can adapt to playing Caper's style of defense, often times where he has less than three down linemen.

[TheKilo]

Theres some weaknesses I see in Y228's lineup as well, but to name a few:

 

I question whether his RBs can shoulder the load for a full season, whether it be from injury or ineffectiveness (Bush)

 

 

to being turnover prone (Bradshaw). I also think his defensive line can be attacked because of Ratliff's tendency to disappear in big games.

 

And then there's the QB...I'll get into it in more detail

but it's one area where I'll have the clear advantage.

[italstallianion]

Don't worry guys, you'll both have plenty of time to share your explanations before voting starts.

[yankees228]

Y228' date=' I'm surprised you think so little of Webster. He won't intercept passes, but I think he's a more than adequate cover corner. I also think that Wake is a criminally underrated player but I also have Chris Canty on my bench to spell either him or Long. Both are also young and can adapt to playing Caper's style of defense, often times where he has less than three down linemen.[/quote']

 

I like Webster, but he isn't a legitimate number one corner in this league. He never plays bump and run coverage, and consistently gives up yards on short and intermediate routes.

 

As for the DEs, they're good players, but it just doesn't change the fact that they're out of position. And with the Capers thing, this just shows why the coaches were a bad idea, drafting players with the crutch of a great coordinator. By the same logic, your offense should struggle without a coach to implement an offensive scheme.

[yankees228]

Theres some weaknesses I see in Y228's lineup as well, but to name a few:

 

I question whether his RBs can shoulder the load for a full season, whether it be from injury or ineffectiveness (Bush)

 

 

to being turnover prone (Bradshaw). I also think his defensive line can be attacked because of Ratliff's tendency to disappear in big games.

 

And then there's the QB...I'll get into it in more detail

but it's one area where I'll have the clear advantage.

 

Why does it matter what they would do over the course of an entire season? Based on the way the voting is conducted, these teams are being built, essentially, for a playoff run three years from now.

 

As for Ratliff, how many big games has he played in? First off, he was really good in their 2007 playoff game vs the Giants, and he was also decent in the playoffs last year. Additionally, the sample size for him in big games is so small that it's pretty much irrelevant.

[yankees228]

My Offense vs. TK's Defense

 

I think this is an area where I can have a lot of success, and what I will do will be based entirely off of how TK adjusts his personnel. Unlike in past match-ups, I plan on going with bigger sets early, and establishing the run. As I mentioned above, TK's line is going to really struggle on off-tackle runs because his DEs are undersized and out of position. I think Bush and Bradshaw, with their speed, will be able to turn the corner and reach the second level.

 

If TK adjusts to this by committing more linebackers to the run, it will open up my passing attack, against what I view as an average secondary. Holmes and Nicks match-up very well with Webster and Clements, and should be able to have success in both the short passing game and on the deep ball. I'll also be able to take advantage based on what TK does with his safeties. If he brings Leonhard down to play the run, and goes with a single high safety, that should help me with big plays. If he keeps both of his safeties back, Cooley should have a field day working on linebackers. If he assigns Collins to Cooley, that should open up the deep parts of the field even more for my wideouts.

 

My Defense vs. TK's Offense

 

TK's offense is fantastic, and my defense will have to really show up here. I plan to go with a mixed bag on defense. I'll go with some traditionally 3-4, hoping for pressure off the edges to disrupt the passing attack. I also think this formation gives me the best opportunity to defend the run, as Ratliff should be able to disrupt plays between the tackle, and Ware and Harrison should be able to control the edges. If TK's backs get through the line between the tackles, James and Lofton are solid tacklers up the middle.

 

On passing downs I'll show Brady a ton of different looks. He'll see the base package, but he'll also see the pass rushers blitzing the A and B gaps, similarly to what I did against YH. Rolle and Harper will come down into the box frequently and blitz the C gap, which should provide pass rushing speed off the edge with the power and speed of Harrison and Ware. I'll go with some zone blitzes where a combination of Harrison, Lofton, James, Wright, and Spears drop into coverage, helping with the underneath routes. I'll also play some 3-3-5, with Phillips subbing in for James, and playing some single high safety. This will allow more maneuverability for Rolle and Harper, and should also help against the deep ball.

 

Special Teams

 

As in my other match-ups, I see the special teams as relatively even. Rackers and Morestead will be careful with McCluster, and I hope that the combination of Bush, Royal, and Washington can get a big play in the return game. Both of our kickers should do a solid job.

 

I think this is a very close match-up, but I like my team's chances better simply because I think my offense will be able to move the ball with ease against TK's defense, while my defense should be able to make just enough plays to win the game.

 

Very interested to see how the voting goes, and best of luck to you TK.

[TheKilo]

Here goes nothing:

 

When Y228 has the ball: As expected, Y228 will try to establish the run against my front seven. I'm fine with that for a few reasons - I think Ngata is the best player on my defense and I have three linebackers who do nothing but tackle people. I don't view Bush as a between the tackles runner, he's more of a pass catching RB who could presen some matchup problems for my team. I'll probably have Collins shadow him when he comes out of the backfield. As for Bradshaw, he's a great runner but he is undersized and very turnover prone. With Ngata clogging the middle (he commands at least a double team), it will allow Vilma and Dansby to shut down any run between the tackles. I'm confident in Wake/Long's ability to set the edge and allow my defense to close on the running backs. Make no mistake, Y228 could have some success here with the run, but does he have the patience to grind out 15 play drives?

 

When he throws the ball, I am pretty confident my gameplan will allow mento succeed against his wideouts. Holmes is great, but Nicks is still largely unproven in this league IMO. my strategy will be to line up Webster (a very underrated corner) against Holmes and make sure I have safety help for Nicks. I am not getting burned over the top by this offense, because big plays are the only way Y228 is going to be able to match my offense. Besides, do any of you think a guy who was on MTV's True Life is going to be able to slow down Lamarr Woodley?

 

(tongue firmly in cheek)

[TheKilo]

When I have the ball: Y228 thinks the best way to beat my defense is to establish the run and pass off of that. My view is exactly the opposite. When I go four wide, five wide (with McCluster or Hernandez) and spread out this defense horizontally, I don't see any way his defense will be able to slow me down. With regards to Ratliff, he's a physical freak but he can be controlled by Koppen, who in my opinion is the 2nd best center in the game behind Mangold. If I can single Ratliff and contain him, then I can limit his pass rush with Harrison and Ware with my other linemen and backs if need be. The fact is if he can't get pressure with four, Brady will carve his secondary up. Colston and Cotchery will have no problems finding the soft zones in his defense and Roddy White is a mismatch against any corner not named Darelle Revis. If I jump out to an early lead, it's going to be tough for Y228 to come back.

[TheKilo]

One final thing to consider - the quarterbacks. As a Packers fan, I have a vested interest in seeing Rodgers do well, and while there are few in the league better at executing the home run play, I have my doubts he can be a successful quarterback when you make him go on prolonged drives. It seems to me that Rodgers is currently following a path of Matt Schaub, where he compiles unbelievable numbers but it doesn't translate into team wins rather than Brady/Manning/Brees/Big Ben, where their success is part of a bigger picture. I hate to use the phrase "big game quarterback"( but Rodgers has maybe won one or two games he wasn't "supposed" to win. Brady has made his living doing that.

[yrtb]

A couple things on this thread I disagree with. I don't think Brady will be better than Rodgers in 3 years...Rodgers hasn't won as many big games because he hasn't played in close to as many big games

 

And Dan Koppen as the 2nd best center in the league? I don't think he's stopping Ratliff

 

That aside, I think that y228 has the only secondary with the real ability to stop Kilo's dirty 1-2 of White/Colston, and that he can still contend with 5 spread, especially because he has an excellent pass rush and Kilo's O-line really isn't all that impressive

 

On offense, y228 has no stars but a lot of talented players, and Kilo's pass rush will be pretty weak other than Ngata in the middle. I don't think he will put up a ton of points, but enough to win

 

I like y228 17-14

[yankees228]

Thanks for voting yrtb. Hopefully others do the same.

[italstallianion]

Crap, I forgot to vote. I'll get mine in tomorrow if that's ok, I'd probably need a reminder though.

[yankees228]

Fair enough, I'll bump the thread tomorrow in one last ditch effort.

[YanksHater213]

Same with me, I'm too tired right now, but I'll put my thoughts up tomorrow morning.

[TheKilo]

WRT Rodgers, I can count on one hand games he "shouldn't have won" but did. You went over that in one season with Brady.

Just sayin'

[YanksHater213]

I like Kilo here by a field goal. Tough one to decide here because these are the two best teams left. I think his front seven is good enough to stop Y228's running attack, and his 3-4 is versatile enough to where he can stop the run, rush the passer, and cover the underneath routes. I love Y228's defense as well, but Brady has a ton of weapons here. Colston, Cotchery, Nelson, and Hernandez are all great possession/under targets and that's what Brady thrives off of.

[italstallianion]

When comparing the teams, I like Kilo's offense better, but I like Y228's defense better. Unlike the other semifinal, I see this being a lower scoring game. I think that Kilo has the better QB, and WRs, while Y228 has the better RB tandem, TE, and I consider the offensive lines to be pretty even. I think that Kilo got lucky when he decided to take a RB late because I think it's generally a poor strategy, but it worked out in the end. However, I don't like McGahee as a backup back because he lacks an explosive in space back. I think that Y228 did the better job of pairing backs with a grinder up the middle and an explosive screen back. So I think that Kilo has the best back of the 4, but that Y228 would get the rushing advantage for the pair.

 

I think that little needs to be said about Brady vs. Rodgers. I think that Brady is better overall, and Rodgers can run the ball better, but isn't as accurate and pinpoint a passer as Brady. I think Kilo has very good WR's, we'll disagree all day about who's WR set is better, but I like his over most other teams. I think it was too early to pick Hernandez and I like Cooley as a better all around TE.

 

The defense in my opinion is what's going to decide this. Kilo committed a cardinal sin of putting a 4-3 DE into a 3-4 spot. Never, should you EVER do that. I think that Cameron Wake is very underrated (although Yahoo lists him as a linebacker for some reason) and although he isn't as big as a typical 3-4 DE, I don't see that being a huge problem because of his speed. Haloti Ngata is also one of the best DT's, so Kilo has a decent Dline overall, although he f***** himself by choosing Long.

 

In addition, 2 of Kilo's linebackers (Greenway and Vilma) are out of position. Granted, both of them are 4-3 linebackers being put into a 3-4, so their jobs should be easier, however, one specific example of this backfiring is with Vilma himself, who did much better in a 4-3 MLB role than a 3-4. He's even stated that he hated the 3-4 in New York. To make sure, I had a few Jets friends confirm it.

 

Anyway, as for Y228's defense, the only front 7 player out of position is Lofton, and he's also a 4-3 MLB being put into a 3-4 defense. I think he has a better front 7 overall, and Kilo's positional sins ice it up. I also like Y228's secondary better than Kilo's as well. I think that Corey Webster is an ok CB, not bad, but not good enough to be a #1 corner in this league. The only member of Kilo's secondary that's really good is Nick Collins. I'd take Y228 at the other spots.

 

The kickers are close, Neil Rackers career percentage is .6% better, but I won't hold that against Kilo. Granted, Rackers past 3 years have been much higher than Janikowski's, but I'm not going to let it decide the match.

 

Y228's punter has a little better numbers than Kilo's as well, which I consider to be a small detail, in addition, I like Y228's kick returner (Leon Washington) better, but Mccluster has a better role in Kilo's offense.

 

For coaching sake, I wasn't a fan of Kilo's choice. I think Capers is a good guy and he's knowledgable, but it seemed like a showboating and unnecessary move. I'd take Coughlin over him at the moment.

 

Anyway, no secret here, I like Kilo's offense and Y228's defense. This is one of the few times where I think that Tom Brady can be beaten. He's going to have a hard time keeping up with how many points his defense will give up to Y228's offense. I see Brady having to drop back a lot, due to Y228's better front 7, and the fact that I think Kilo's team will be trailing and running uphill. I think that Y228 has the running backs to ice the game better than Kilo's, and in a neutral field, I'd take Y228's team by 4-7 points.

 

I'd predict Y228: 24 Kilo: 20

[yankees228]

Thanks for voting YH and ital.

 

YH, I obviously have no issue with someone picking against my team, but I have a question about your analysis. What gives you confidence that TK's front seven is going to play well, with so many players out of position (especially to the point where it seems like his front seven is one of the main reasons you picked his team)?

[italstallianion]

For the record, when I had sent my friend the rosters and asked him to do his power rankings, he had put my team first and Kilo's team 2nd. For the record, I didn't tell him which team was mine.

 

Anyway, the reason why I'm bringing this up is that I told him the rosters and I didn't tell him the defensive schemes because at the time, I didn't know what scheme each person was doing. Anyway, I told him about the past few matchups and he said (and I'm editing it a bit) that he would have "knocked Kilo's team down a bunch of rankings for doing a 3-4 and that he should be shot for putting Chris Long as a 3-4 DE and then tie his family up in the basement and light his house on fire." He even said "how many of these team owners are that retarded that they can't set up a proper 4-3 or 3-4?

[YanksHater213]

Ngata is unbelievable in the middle, and Cameron Wake is establishing himself as an elite pass rusher this year. Woodley is one of the best linebackers in the league, I planned on taking him until Kilo did, and both Greenway and Dansby are very underrated linebackers. Vilma is nothing special, but I like his speed in this matchup and I think that really helps him a lot.

[yankees228]

Ngata is unbelievable in the middle' date=' and Cameron Wake is establishing himself as an elite pass rusher this year. Woodley is one of the best linebackers in the league, I planned on taking him until Kilo did, and both Greenway and Dansby are very underrated linebackers. Vilma is nothing special, but I like his speed in this matchup and I think that really helps him a lot.[/quote']

 

The talent is all well and good, but it doesn't work schematically, with so many players out of position. The idea is to project how this team would play, and while we can't do this in any exact fashion, we have to go with highest probability. And more often than not, when players are out of position, it does not end up working. A defense with so many players out of position should be penalized, but not only aren't you doing that, you're treating his front seven as a big plus. That makes absolutely no sense.

[YanksHater213]

Just curious...who do you guys see as playing out of position aside from Long?

[italstallianion]

Greenway and Vilma as well. I gave Greenway a pass, but Vilma couldn't handle the 3-4, and significantly improved when he went to the 4-3 in New Orleans. He's more the exception to the rule, so I didn't deduct Kilo on Greenway.