What is Jed Lowrie?

[Dojji]

And a shoulder is any less of a concern? Shoulder injuries have ended as many careers as back injuries, and if he has both...

[a700hitter]

And a shoulder is any less of a concern? Shoulder injuries have ended as many careers as back injuries' date=' and if he has both...[/quote']I didn't say that. I was just stating the fact.

[Palodios]

Wasn't the dislocated disc in his neck? Either way, he's a fighter, and I have a hard time seeing them benching him after how hard he played this year regardless of his injuries-- unless ofcourse those injuries are what do the benching.

[Dojji]

It does come hard, but you need to put the best lineup in the field. I like Scutaro, if Jed's hurt or terrible I have no problem having him on the field, but Jed has every chance of being the better ballplayer next year if both are healthy.

[Dipre]

@ Doiji: You're making things up again. Lowrie has never proved in a large sample size that he's a superior player offensively and defensively than Scutaro. If he wants to be the starting shortstop, he'll have to earn it, and no amount of campaigning for him is going to change that.

 

@Palodios: They have the money, and i think they're going to spend it specifically because of the reasons you mentioned. They need to stay competitive to keep their sellout streak and keep bringing in the money. They'll at least have a similar payroll to this year.

[Dojji]

Dipre: No, I'm not. The aggregate of samples and each individual sample are better than Scutaro's sample both offensively and defensively. What exactly is wrong with finding out whether the kid can sustain it or not? I'm just asking for a chance to DEVELOP a decent sample size and I have no idea why you think that's such a wierd thing to suggest.

[Dipre]

The "aggregate sample" consists of 164 games. Never more than 81 games in a season. If he wants the position, he needs to earn it and show he's healthy. Marco Scutaro demonstrated this year that he can be productive even while dealing with major injuries. Lowrie hasn't demonstrated that he can produce consistently or stay healthy. Liking a player doesn't make him the better option. I stand by the opinion that Lowrie's best deployed in a super-sub role until he proves he deserves to be the starter at SS. Feel free to think otherwise.

[SCM33]

I think Lowrie has a career that parallels Tim Naehring. Both have the talent to be very good players but cant stay on the field.

 

I think they are eerily similar.

[Dojji]

The "aggregate sample" consists of 164 games. Never more than 81 games in a season. If he wants the position' date=' he needs to earn it and show he's healthy. Marco Scutaro demonstrated this year that he can be productive even while dealing with major injuries. Lowrie hasn't demonstrated that he can produce consistently or stay healthy. Liking a player doesn't make him the better option. I stand by the opinion that Lowrie's best deployed in a super-sub role until he proves he deserves to be the starter at SS. Feel free to think otherwise.[/quote']

 

That's a self-defeating proposition. Lowrie's playing well enough in a sub position to justify a look as a starter as things are right now. the condition that you claim would cause you to believe he should be trusted with the role is extant at the moment and you're still for putting him in a substitute role. By that measurement, he'll always play the sub role because he'll never get a full sample at SS.

 

How the hell can he prove he can prove whether he can be consistent and healthy for a full year as a starter unless the FO and Tito have the balls to actually start him and see what happens? If it doesn't work, Scutaro is right there and while his career line is worse than Lowrie's even with all the injuries thrown in, Scutaro is one of the best backup infielders in the league today. It's what he's there to be.

 

This is not a guy who ever pulled a mystery injury from just playing the game. He got hit in the hand with a pitch and it damaged his wrist, he had surgery, and reinjured it because he tried to come back and play before it had fully recovered. Around the lingering wrist issue, which Lowrie is FAR from the only player to ever run into and now seems to be behind him, we have a pulled muscle and mono, the sorts of things that can literally happen to anyone and have no real bearing on a player's health rating. Nor is he like Naehring in terms of playing style which was a big part of Tim's injury history. Naehring was a much more reckless defender, he did a lot of diving after the ball as I recall it and that was a contributing factor to his troubles. Lowrie has better natural range and doesn't have to make the spectacular play as often to get the job done so his style isn't as hard on his body.

 

Basically I just don't see the injury troubles as likely to be ongoing. Yeah if he takes an HBP on the wrist again we may have a problem but that doesn't happen to a player in a given year.

[Palodios]

That's a self-defeating proposition. Lowrie's playing well enough in a sub position to justify a look as a starter as things are right now. the condition that you claim would cause you to believe he should be trusted with the role is extant at the moment and you're still for putting him in a substitute role. By that measurement' date=' he'll always play the sub role because he'll never get a full sample at SS. [/quote']

 

I'm sort of split on the opinions of Dojji and Dipre here. I think that because he's a switch hitter who can play any of four positions, he's going to get at bats to prove himself all of next season-- and him as a utility guy is the best thing for the team, even if he may play better than scutaro. But on the other hand, I think he can definitely hit very very well.

 

Dipre, you seem to be overlooking how well he plays when healthy-- he's hit .740 for his career despite his crummy end of 2008 and 2009. That's over 160 games half of which while injured and adjusting to major league pitching.--do you actually think he's going to get worse if he gets a full season? Maybe he's not upper tier as a 3B, but if he stays healthy he will definitely be an upper tier SS-- besides Troy and Hanley who is out there who is significantly better right now?

[Dipre]

I don't think Lowrie's getting worse. What i think is that, as a regular, a .740 OPS guy is what he is, while he could be much more productive and useful (while staying healthy) in the super-sub role.

 

I don't look at players on an "I-like-you" basis, which is what usually clouds Doiji's objectivity. I see them while evaluating their importance to overall team construction. Scutaro has proved he can endure the rigors of a full season playing through injuries and being productive, and unfortunately, the Red Sox don't have the luxury of throwing Lowrie out there as a project for starting SS or 3B when he could be best deployed as a super-sub, maximizing his actual value to the club. If there's something the 2010 season should have taught us, it's that a strong bench is a really important but overlooked aspect of a ballclub, and Lowrie's ability to play multiple positions could be golden in the event something happens (and something probably will happen).

[Dojji]

If you think the most he will be is .740 OPS, fine, but I'd like to hear from you what factors you think will limit him from producing at his current level as a starter, especially since he's gone stretches of starting 6 out of 7 games and hasn't shown much signs of damage.

 

This is not a guy with a huge situational gap in his approach. He's a switch hitter and while he's having a little trouble batting lefty, it's not a fatal flaw -- he's hitting on his weak hand at the level you seem to believe he'll never hit any better than overall. Moreover, his BABIP as a lefty suggests that that number will go up -- if he gets it up into the ~.750 range, which is a rather modest improvement, then we revert to the .800 OPS standard even if his numbers against lefties (who he murders this year) do fall back a little as well. If that's the issue then you're majorly exaggerating the extent of the problem. His discipline is more than good, he's got at least strong doubles power, so if you want to project him as just a. 740 guy you're pretty much predicting that he'll be nursing a wrist injury every year like he was in 08 and 09.

 

you seem to be laboring under the misapprehension that I've given this no thought and that I'm reacting just because I like Jed. I do like Jed, and I'll defend him until he gives me a reason not to, but the fact is that you're way underselling the guy if you project him as just a .740 OPS player at the moment, because you're taking a rookie campaign and an injured year and assuming those, and not the numbers he's putting up now while healthy, are going to be the norm, which is frankly just a little ridiculous. Not that protecting a career of absolutely smooth sailing is any less ridiculous, but there's a middle ground here.

 

Besides, to be perfectly honest? .740 OPS still beats out Scutaro's .721, so even assuming everything you say is exactly true, you should still start Lowrie over Scutaro.

[Dipre]

I'm just working with what you're giving me. You're prone to overvaluing the abilities and production of prospects you like: Hunter Jones, Yamaico Navarro, Daniel Nava, and the list goes on and on and on.

 

Bottom line, it's a gamble, and if the guy can produce as a super-sub and you already have a regular SS, it's a no-brainer to keep him in the super-sub role where you can keep him healthy and productive. He hasn't proven he can be a ML regular, and Scutaro has. And don't get me wrong, i don't like Scutaro, and despised the signing, but the guy's a gamer, and his production was marred by injuries, so until Lowrie proves he can effectively relieve him of his duties, then let him be a Jack-Of-All-Trades until he does. I'm not down on Jed, i simply have realistic expectations.

[Dojji]

If the supersub outproduces the regular, even if that production is less than he would do as a sub, you still put the best guy in the lineup whenever possible.

[Dipre]

Which is the crux of the argument. I believe that, over a full season, a healthy Scutaro outproduces a healthy Lowrie.

 

Scutaro put up a .716 OPS on basically one arm this year.

[Palodios]

Dipre, normally you give a very good argument, so I'm just a little surprised at your opinion on this one. From what you're saying, it seems like you don't see any room for improvement in a player who is essentially just finishing his rookie season, and has seen clear decline in his stats due to injury.

[Dipre]

Exactly because he's never been through the rigors of an entire MLB season and hasn't even managed to stay healthy for an entire MLB season is why i don't think he should just be "handed" the position.

 

There's nothing to be surprised about, since you stated yourself you don't think he's going to stay healthy for a whole season as a regular.

 

So, logically:

 

By having him man a regular spot you risk injury or getting exposed.

 

By having him man a bench spot you keep him fresh, healthy and productive while getting him the necessary AB's to constitute himself as a regular if that is indeed his ceiling.

[jacksonianmarch]

I agree with Dipre on this one. Lowrie has potential, but handing him a job out of spring training is a poor decision. His fragility and inconsistency has yet to be tested over 162 games. Until he shows something on the big league level outside of 6 weeks of production in a truly non-playoff atmosphere, then you can talk.

[Dojji]

Which is the crux of the argument. I believe that, over a full season, a healthy Scutaro outproduces a healthy Lowrie.

 

Scutaro put up a .716 OPS on basically one arm this year.

 

But he's also put up only about a .720 OPS for his career, and he's going into his age 36 year. This guy doesn't have far to decline before he becomes useless offensively and he himself is hurt. The upside there is nonexistent other than one fluke year with the Jays. Lowrie on the other hand has solid upside, even you've got to admit that. Since they're already both on the 25-man, starting Lowrie doesn't involve cutting Scutaro, he'll be there if the experiment fails. There is literally nothing to lose.

[Palodios]

But he's also put up only about a .720 OPS for his career' date=' and he's going into his age 36 year. This guy doesn't have far to decline before he becomes useless offensively and he himself is hurt. The upside there is nonexistent other than one fluke year with the Jays. Lowrie on the other hand has solid upside, even you've got to admit that. Since they're already both on the 25-man, starting Lowrie doesn't involve cutting Scutaro, he'll be there if the experiment fails. There is literally nothing to lose.[/quote']

 

In all reality, I see Francona going into 2011 with the player who is less likely to break down. Both have firmly proven that they both are fine in a utility role, but Scutaro's body took a beating this year, and Lowrie is who he is. There is literally nothing to lose with Scutaro starting the season and getting frequent breaks from Lowrie either.

[Dojji]

I could actually see a kind of platoon at short, especially if Scoot has to have surgery. The idea will be twofold. On paper it's to ease Scutaro in, but in all likelihood it's going to be more like the Cora-Pedroia situation at second back in '07. You know, let 'em both play and then give the job to the guy who's producing.

[a700hitter]

With 9 HRs in 170 ABs, he could hit his way to a starting spot next season.

[Yaz Sideburn]

lowrie had one wrist injury, that's hardly enough to call him fragile. i think he's a very exciting young player and shortstop could be a great source of strength for us next year

 

if lowrie hits anything like he did this year, he'd easily be the best hitting shortstop in the american league

[NateGrey]

when healthy he's stephen drew with a higher obp.

 

 

 

[mvp 78]

"Jed Lowrie, INF, Red Sox — Teams needing a second baseman are very interested in Lowrie. The feeling is his arm strength is perfectly suited for second base, but an American League scout said he would take him as a shortstop. “He could be like Cal Ripken and just learn to position hitters so well he reduces the throw with good positioning,’’ said the scout."

 

What, no mention of 3b? I thought he had an above average arm?

[Dojji]

no mention of 3B largely because he just doesn't play there very often and a team wouldn't be likely to acquire him to play there for that reason.

 

A lot of guys who have been called "really a 2B" have gone on to have decent careers at shortstop. I can point to Michael Young and David Eckstein as examples. Arm at shortstop is important but it can be overrated if a player does everything else wrong.

 

Of course there is a risk to it too. Mike Aviles of the Royals was "really a 2B" and they stuck him at short for a year and he overexerted his arm and wound up needing TJS. Now he's having real trouble getting back to his original performance level. That or he's just an older rookie who isn't that good.

[Palodios]

"Jed Lowrie, INF, Red Sox — Teams needing a second baseman are very interested in Lowrie. The feeling is his arm strength is perfectly suited for second base, but an American League scout said he would take him as a shortstop. “He could be like Cal Ripken and just learn to position hitters so well he reduces the throw with good positioning,’’ said the scout."

 

What, no mention of 3b? I thought he had an above average arm?

 

Offensively, he will have more value at SS or 2B. There are not many middle infielders who hit at his potential.

[SCM33]

Arm at shortstop is important but it can be overrated if a player does everything else wrong..

 

Like Shawon Dunston and Jose Offerman.

[Dojji]

Did I really say "wrong?" I meant to say the exact opposite. *facepalm* Oh well, at least this time my Freudian slip wasn't sufficient to change the meaning of what I was saying and the gist of what I'm trying to communicate still comes through.

 

But yeah, a SS with a great arm that does nothing else is worthless, like say Yuniesky Betancourt. Meanwhile a guy like Lowrie with range, hands, and an average to below average arm can still get by very well at short. After all, a below average SS arm doesn't necessarilymean a guy can't get by, since simple logic tells you that everyone cannot possibly be above average -- it just means he needs to make enough plays with range and hands to make up for the odd infield hit, and hit well enough himself to make up for any other deficiencies..

[a700hitter]

Did I really say "wrong?" I meant to say the exact opposite. *facepalm* Oh well, at least this time my Freudian slip wasn't sufficient to change the meaning of what I was saying and the gist of what I'm trying to communicate still comes through.

 

But yeah, a SS with a great arm that does nothing else is worthless, like say Yuniesky Betancourt. Meanwhile a guy like Lowrie with range, hands, and an average to below average arm can still get by very well at short. After all, a below average SS arm doesn't necessarilymean a guy can't get by, since simple logic tells you that everyone cannot possibly be above average -- it just means he needs to make enough plays with range and hands to make up for the odd infield hit, and hit well enough himself to make up for any other deficiencies..

I think Lowrie has a good SS arm. His arm strength is good and his accuracy is above average IMO.