The "Unofficial Pre- Hot Stove (2010)" thread.

[a700hitter]

The price for non-fielding hitters with big performance risks is surprisingly low. Look at Guerrero-- he was around the 30 HR 100 RBI range for a decade, and one bad season and he struggled to get a 5.5 million dollar contract. Matsui came off a year with 28 HR and 90 RBI in 2009 to make 6 million this year. Ortiz is a better hitter than those guys, but not enough to warrant twice their salary. He's 35 years old-- with questions about his age-- steroid allegations, platoon numbers, early season slumps and his size are all problems. Plus, he's worthless to NL teams.

 

Not to mention Adam Dunn, who atleast played a position, was 28 years old with 40/100 numbers, and going into his last contract and still only got 2/20.

Vlad is a comparable offensive player. Masui is not. As you point out, Vlad was coming off the worst season of his career. Now, that he has rebounded to a 30/100 guy, he will probably command considerably more than 5.5 million.

[Palodios]

Over the last few years, these guys generally get around that price range. Abreu got a 2/16 with Tampa after consistently hitting around that .880 line for a few years. Giambi got a 4 million after he left New York. Jermaine Dye got shafted because he wanted too much.

[Dipre]

Over the last few years' date=' these guys generally get around that price range. Abreu got a 2/16 with Tampa after consistently hitting around that .880 line for a few years. Giambi got a 4 million after he left New York. Jermaine Dye got shafted because he wanted too much.[/quote']

 

Do you mean Abreu with the Angels or Burrell with Tampa?

 

Either way, the only way the Sox don't bring Ortiz back is if they find a similar bat with positional flexibility at around that same price. Good luck with that.

[a700hitter]

Over the last few years' date=' these guys generally get around that price range. Abreu got a 2/16 with Tampa after consistently hitting around that .880 line for a few years. Giambi got a 4 million after he left New York. Jermaine Dye got shafted because he wanted too much.[/quote']I think Abreu got 2/$20 from the Angels. The other guys you mentioned were not anywhere close to Ortiz' production when they signe those deals.

[Palodios]

You're right-- I meant Burell on the 2/16, but he was .880 to .900 the seasons prior, and several years younger. Abreu isn't a slouch either and hasn't gotten great money from the angels either. These guys arent really that far away in production from Ortiz-- sure he hits a few more home runs, but its all about risk.

[a700hitter]

You're right-- I meant Burell on the 2/16' date=' but he was .880 to .900 the seasons prior, and several years younger. Abreu isn't a slouch either and hasn't gotten great money from the angels either. These guys arent really that far away in production from Ortiz-- sure he hits a few more home runs, but his hitting has been mediocre lately.[/quote']Abreu's combined OPS for the last 3 years has been less than Ortiz and he has made $9 million per year for those three years. I think Ortiz could be talked into a 2 year $18/19 million deal.

[Palodios]

His combined OPS has been less, but by how much? I don't have exact numbers, but by the look of it, one has averaged a .850 OPS and the other has average an .820 OPS.

 

Abreu has also played 150+ games every year since 1997, which says a lot. Plus he plays right field, and thus is valuable to 30 teams instead of just 14(not to mention that he sits for so many NL games). He also has had a much higher OBP and 20+ steals every season. Is all of that worth .030 points in OPS? Considering that on two occasions in the last two years, Ortiz has played so badly that it made sense to dump his salary, I really don't see him being worth 2/18.

[a700hitter]

His combined OPS has been less, but by how much? I don't have exact numbers, but by the look of it, one has averaged a .850 OPS and the other has average an .820 OPS.

 

Abreu has also played 150+ games every year since 1997, which says a lot. Plus he plays right field, and thus is valuable to 30 teams instead of just 14. He also has had a much higher OBP and 20+ steals every season. Is all of that worth .030 points in OPS?

Abreu's fielding is is not worth more than a 50% increase in pay. His ability to play the field might be worth 30 OPS points, but that still wouldn't knock Ortiz price much below the $9 million per year that Abreu has been getting for 3 years.

[Palodios]

Err... where do you get a 50% increase in pay? There is a difference of 12.5% here. Abreu's steals, consistency, and fielding is worth .030 points in OPS and 1 million, I think that's completely reasonable. And I underline that its not necessarily fielding, but availability to both leagues that raise Abreu's market value.

[a700hitter]

Err... where do you get a 50% increase in pay? There is a difference of 28% here. Abreu's steals' date=' consistency, and fielding is worth .030 points in OPS and 1 or 2 million, I think that's completely reasonable. And I underline that its not necessarily fielding, but availability to other leagues that raise Abreu's market value.[/quote']I got 50% from your proposed figure of $6 million for Ortiz. The $9 million earned by Abreu is 50% more than that.

[a700hitter]

Considering that on two occasions in the last two years' date=' Ortiz has played so badly that it made sense to dump his salary, I really don't see him being worth 2/18.[/quote']If they didn't dump him, it didn't make sense, and his performance justified their faith in him. He is # 5 in HRs and #10 in OPS. That is pretty good.

[Palodios]

I got 50% from your proposed figure of $6 million for Ortiz. The $9 million earned by Abreu is 50% more than that.

 

I said 8 million.

[a700hitter]

I said 8 million.

My bad. $8 million is a reasonable figure. He might go for 2 years/$16 million. That's a reasonable figure.

[example1]

You really think he's going to take $8m/yr? I hope he does, but I bet he would demand 3 years at $8m.

 

If this team resigns Beltre and Ortiz for more than one year then we can virtually assure ourselves that Adrian Gonzalez, Albert Pujols, and Prince Fielder will not be coming this way as potential FAs.

 

Given that Lars and Rizzo will be ready by that time, there may not be anything wrong with that scenario. It would undoubtedly be cheaper; I just don't know if they can handle a "down" season from Ortiz during either of those years and I feel like he's on the cusp of one.

[Will617]

Picking up the one-year option, although at a higher price per year than a 2-year deal, would leave the Sox with the needed flexibility in the future.

For example, the Sox could sign Dunn long-term, and move him to DH in a year if they acquire Gonzalez/Pujols (and probably keep him at first if they acquire Fielder - but I don't know how willing he is to accept a future like that). Or, they could sign Werth and a stop-gap at 1B/3B, and then move Werth to DH, Youk to third, fill in right with one of our emerging prospects, and pick up a 1B. Or slot an outfielder at DH and keep Werth in right, idk. Or, rotate V-Mart a substantial amount between C/DH in two years. Or trade for HanRam and put his glove at DH.

[jacksonianmarch]

The sox kinda have to pick up the option. By the time that decision needs to be made, both VMart and Beltre will be unsigned (their negotiations are going well into the FA period). So you are talking about 50HRs and nearly 200RBI gone from the lineup. And if you play hardball with him, you might drop his salary to $8 million. Maybe. But it will be hard to justify giving him a paycut when he goes 30/100 for you and is your second most consistent offensive force outside of the FA Beltre. Plus, negotiating a 2 yr deal at $16 million does you no good since he has shown some warning signs of decline. Imagine the uproar if Papi signs through 2012 then goes out in 2011 and shows that 2008 and 2009 werent flukes, that 2010 was. Having him on a 1 yr deal is necessary. Chopping his pay by 1/3 while risking losing him is not.

[BSN07]

The price for non-fielding hitters with big performance risks is surprisingly low. Look at Guerrero-- he was around the 30 HR 100 RBI range for a decade, and one bad season and he struggled to get a 5.5 million dollar contract. Matsui came off a year with 28 HR and 90 RBI in 2009 to make 6 million this year. Ortiz is a better hitter than those guys, but not enough to warrant twice their salary. He's 35 years old-- with questions about his age-- steroid allegations, platoon numbers, early season slumps and his size are all problems. Plus, he's worthless to NL teams.

 

Not to mention Adam Dunn, who atleast played a position, was 28 years old with 40/100 numbers, and going into his last contract and still only got 2/20.

 

I think your spot on here.

[Palodios]

Picking up the one-year option, although at a higher price per year than a 2-year deal, would leave the Sox with the needed flexibility in the future.

 

I think I've gone to lengths to show that Ortiz is not worth the 12.5.

 

Between our pile of aging, bad defensive sluggers, Burrell, Abreu, Matsui, Guerrero, Dunn, Dye, Delgado... how many have been making significantly more than 8 million a year? The best was 28 year old Dunn for a 2/20. Hell, even Ken Griffey JR. hasn't made more than 10 million per year since 2002, and just retired this year.

 

At best they should offer Ortiz a 1/8 contract with a vesting option for 2012-- that's all he's worth right now. Yes, losing Ortiz/Beltre and VMart will hurt a lot, but odds are, they're retaining atleast one of them, and pick up one or two from Crawford/Werth/Dunn/Konerko. Even considering the guys they're losing, they still have five or six strong offensive pieces with a ton of money to spend, and remember that they made sure to hold onto their trade chips this trading deadline, so they may make a very different splash this offseason.

[BSN07]

I think I've gone to lengths to show that Ortiz is not worth the 12.5.

 

Between our pile of aging, bad defensive sluggers, Burrell, Abreu, Matsui, Guerrero, Dunn, Dye, Delgado... how many have been making significantly more than 8 million a year? The best was 28 year old Dunn for a 2/20. Hell, even Ken Griffey JR. hasn't made more than 10 million per year since 2002, and just retired this year.

 

At best they should offer Ortiz a 1/8 contract with a vesting option for 2012-- that's all he's worth right now. Yes, losing Ortiz/Beltre and VMart will hurt a lot, but odds are, they're retaining atleast one of them, and pick up one or two from Crawford/Werth/Dunn/Konerko. Even considering the guys they're losing, they still have five or six strong offensive pieces with a ton of money to spend, and remember that they made sure to hold onto their trade chips this trading deadline, so they may make a very different splash this offseason.

 

It's like your reading my mind

[mvp 78]

He might not be worth the full 12.5, but the Sox can afford it. They're done paying Lugo right?

[BSN07]

He might not be worth the full 12.5' date=' but the Sox can afford it. They're done paying Lugo right?[/quote']

 

Yes they can. Doesn't mean they should. Papi hits good against RHP and lower tier LHP. Anything average and above he struggles. Which means at this point isn't quite a platoon player, but not far off. And last time I checked(no I didn't really check) the Yankees don't even give platoon players 12M a season

[Dipre]

I think the Sox economic situation should be analyzed a bit more in-depth:

 

The Sox have 100 and a half million dollars tied up for 2011, with the luxury tax increasing threshold increasing to 178 million.

 

If you over-estimate and assume the Sox will spend $10 million on players reaching arbitration, then that leaves with roughly 67 million to fix the bullpen, keep the FA's, and bring in an OF bat.

 

Best-case scenario:

 

Ortiz option exercised: 12.5 mill.

 

V-Mart signed at: 13 million per

 

Beltre signed at: 14 million per.

 

Werth/Crawford signed at: 16 million per.

 

Scott Downs: 5 million per.

 

JJ Putz: 5 million per.

 

65.5 million out of the available 67.5.

 

The exercising of the Ortiz option brings on a two-fold problem, which is not allowing the Sox to go for a third (and sorely needed) bullpen arm, and preventing the re-signing of Bill Hall. The best way to fix this in my opinion is to try and find someone desperate enough to take Mike Cameron, which is believe is doable (emphasis on believe) , allowing the Sox to pick up a third arm (3 million) and keep Bill Hall (4 million).

 

Now i think i may have assigned at least one player a below-market value and two others above-market value, but this is just a general portrayal of what i believe to be the current situation and how it could (emphasis on could) play out.

[BSN07]

Latest Gammons, just some stuff to chew on.

 

* The Red Sox will likely pick up David Ortiz's 2011 option in part because they'd be afraid to see him playing for the Yankees or Rays if they let him go.

* Adrian Beltre was never comfortable in Seattle like he was in Los Angeles and is in Boston. Gammons thinks the third baseman could end up signing with the Tigers this winter and wonders if he'd be uncomfortable in Detroit's spacious home park.

* Although Adam Dunn insists he doesn't want to DH, he may end up having no other choice. The Nationals appear unlikely to re-sign Dunn because "they don’t know where to play him in the field," according to Gammons, who says the Yankees are a potential destination for the slugger.

* If they pursue either player, the Red Sox are more likely to go after Carl Crawford than Jayson Werth.

* Crawford signing with the Angels may not be as likely as people think, Gammons says, since owner Arte Moreno "isn’t always great with free agents."

* Daisuke Matsuzaka is a trade candidate this winter, and Gammons can envision Boston dealing him to the Mets for Carlos Beltran.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Beltre with Detroit? o.O

[soxfan74]

Stay away from Beltran. Good grief. If you think J.D. Drew is injury prone. Don't have a problem with trying to move Dice-K at all. Lets just get a better return than that.

[jacksonianmarch]

Might be a good idea. Beltran will be in a contract yr and hasnt shown a decline with the stick, just the wheels

[alphilip77]

If we did end up trading Dice-K, who would replace him? Wakefield is clearly over the hill and although Doubront shows promise, he's more effective in the bullpen until he irons out his mistakes (which were more profound when he was a SP).

[jacksonianmarch]

If you are betting on Beckett and Lackey returning to form, then a middle of the order bat would be more of a need than a 5th starter

[BSN07]

If we did end up trading Dice-K' date=' who would replace him? Wakefield is clearly over the hill and although Doubront shows promise, he's more effective in the bullpen until he irons out his mistakes (which were more profound when he was a SP).[/quote']

 

There are probably a number of SP that could be traded for this off season. Heard KC might be shopping Grienke He be a nice #3

[alphilip77]

There are probably a number of SP that could be traded for this off season. Heard KC might be shopping Grienke He be a nice #3

 

One spaz for another? No thank you.