The "Unofficial Pre- Hot Stove (2010)" thread.

[Palodios]

A few comments

 

How often do the #1-5 pitchers stay healthy all season? Between Atchison, Doubront, and Wakefield, that's 23 starts this season. We all loved a certain World Series run a few years back, but face it, having depth at starter is never a bad thing.

 

Papelbon needs to go. When a player leads the league in blown saves for a closer and still expects to make 12 million the following year, its not a difficult decision. There aren't many big market teams looking for elite closers, so Soriono should end up cheaper than Papelbon would have.

 

Jacko--The bold move by the Yankees is getting Cliff Lee. Its going to happen, and I think most of us have accepted it by now. That rotation cannot survive another season like this one. But Buchholz/Lester versus Sabathia/Lee is a wash. They will likely pick up another big bat, but they do that every season so its not much of a surprise.

 

If Lowell got a 3/45 deal, I see no reason why Beltre wouldn't get something better-- although they'll probably make a 4th year incentive-based. We talk about the potential of getting an elite 1B, but hell, we already have one, and getting an elite 3B instead couldn't hurt. Plus, he's playing just as well as A-gon is right now, and will take significantly less money/years without either waiting or prospects.

[example1]

I take umbrage with this thinking though. Sox fans seem to act like the sox are a small market club. You have essentially 1.5 times the salary of the Pirates coming off the books and had a team that most sox fans think could have competed for a playoff spot if they stayed healthy. Why' date=' then, is it a requirement that these players take hometown discounts when the sox coffers are overflowing? If Theo and the brass thought that this team could have competed for a playoff spot with them as is, then he should resign that team regardless of cost.[/quote']

 

Not if it ends up tying their hands 2-4 years down the road. No need to take umbrage, nobody is saying they shouldn't spend the money. My thought is that if they are going to spend the money they should spend it on the players they want to have long-term, not feeling coerced into signing Ortiz to fill the DH spot when they really want Adrian Gonzalez or Prince Fielder.

 

It isn't about being a "small market" team, it is about spending all of the vast $$ they have coming off the books wisely. You get that, right?

[jacksonianmarch]

I get that. But I dont get why sox fans as well as the FO feel that they need to be paying less than or right at value. You can afford to overpay when that need is absolutely essential to team success. I agree with you that flexibility is important. But flexibility in terms of years and not AAV. If the sox agreed that Beltre for 3 yrs is a good option, then why not overpay in terms of AAV to get the player for the term you want? The funny thing is, the sox seem to be contradicting themselves on a daily basis. They go out and sign JD Drew for a 5 yr deal, when it would have been absolutely better for the franchise to go 4 or less at a higher AAV. Then they are unwilling to go to 4 yrs for Jason Bay, a guy who in Boston would have given them the middle of the order bat that they needed. Then, they go out and sign a guy like Cameron for 2 yrs, when he wasnt going to get the yrs or the AAV from anyone else on the open market. The sox arent losing money, they are making money hand over fist. If the goal is to maintain roster flexibility and financial flexibility, then they should be willing to pay more to secure fewer yrs. They seem to do that with certain guys, then go past that on others. It's interesting

[Dipre]

Lol Jason Bay.

 

They offered Bay four years, then took the offer back due to concerns about his knee/shoulder, which given his power outage last year, may have been legit. And please don't tell me you don't think shoulder issues can sap a player's power, since you used that argument criticizing Beltre.

[a700hitter]

Lol Jason Bay.

 

They offered Bay four years, then took the offer back due to concerns about his knee/shoulder, which given his power outage last year, may have been legit. And please don't tell me you don't think shoulder issues can sap a player's power, since you used that argument criticizing Beltre.

He had a concussion issue, and a CitiField issue. It took David Wright a full season to adjust to that place. He has had no shoulder issues whatsoever. The shoulder issue is a total joke. At least he had some knee problems a few seasons ago in Pittsburgh. For the season, he was hitting doubles at a higher rate than he did in 2009, and he was hitting triples (6) at three times the rate than he did in 2009. His HR output was atrocious compared to last season. I don't know how many of you have been to CitiField, but the playing field is enormous. When his brains get unscrambled, he'll return to form next season.

[Station 13]

I'm liking Victor more and more with him playing better defense. He can absolutely hit and is always good at it. As a contact hitter he fits this team perfectly with Pedey and Youk.

 

4/45 will be in the neighborhood for his market. SIGN Victor.

[BSN07]

* Instead of the typical 15-day free agent filing period following the World Series, it will be five days.

* Typically the deadline for a team to offer arbitration to its own free agents has been December 1st; it's now November 23rd.

* December 7th has been the deadline for free agents to accept or decline arbitration offers from their old teams; it's now November 30th.

* December 12th has been the non-tender deadline; it's now December 2nd.

* The above dates are confirmed. On the unconfirmed side, there is word that the Rule 5 draft may be moved to November 20th. The Rule 5 draft typically marks the end of the Winter Meetings, but that gathering takes place from December 6-9 this year in Lake Buena Vista, Florida.

* The goal here, according to Stark, is to lengthen the offseason free agent negotiating period, resulting in fewer unsigned players in February and March.

 

Glad we won't have to wait as long for the action to start this off season

[example1]

I get that. But I dont get why sox fans as well as the FO feel that they need to be paying less than or right at value.

 

I don't know if it is a matter of "needing" to pay less than, or right-at, value. Doesn't that just seem like what most people would aim for? To me it seems like the sensible thing to do, any extra money is paying more than the player is worth. What kind of investment is that?

 

 

 

You can afford to overpay when that need is absolutely essential to team success.

 

I agree, but I don't think Adrian Beltre is absolutely essential to team success. It's the wins, not the particular player. It might be possible that for roughly the same amount of money they can get the same production from someone else or from some combination of improvements on the team. They have 3 spots to replace and a fair chunk of money to spend.

 

 

I agree with you that flexibility is important. But flexibility in terms of years and not AAV. If the sox agreed that Beltre for 3 yrs is a good option, then why not overpay in terms of AAV to get the player for the term you want? The funny thing is, the sox seem to be contradicting themselves on a daily basis. They go out and sign JD Drew for a 5 yr deal, when it would have been absolutely better for the franchise to go 4 or less at a higher AAV. Then they are unwilling to go to 4 yrs for Jason Bay, a guy who in Boston would have given them the middle of the order bat that they needed. Then, they go out and sign a guy like Cameron for 2 yrs, when he wasnt going to get the yrs or the AAV from anyone else on the open market. The sox arent losing money, they are making money hand over fist. If the goal is to maintain roster flexibility and financial flexibility, then they should be willing to pay more to secure fewer yrs. They seem to do that with certain guys, then go past that on others. It's interesting

 

They clearly think they can get 'X' wins from 'Y' dollars and that they can do this in many different ways. Why would they spend more than that? If they determine that most of the time they can get a win-above-replacement for $2m, why would they spend $4m? I don't think it is that easy, but a lot of times their approach seems to be adding a pinch of talent here, and a dash of talent there and the results have been decent.

[Will617]

He had a concussion issue' date=' and a CitiField issue. It took David Wright a full season to adjust to that place. He has had no shoulder issues whatsoever. The shoulder issue is a total joke. At least he had some knee problems a few seasons ago in Pittsburgh. For the season, he was hitting doubles at a higher rate than he did in 2009, and he was hitting triples (6) at three times the rate than he did in 2009. His HR output was atrocious compared to last season. I don't know how many of you have been to CitiField, but the playing field is enormous. When his brains get unscrambled, he'll return to form next season.[/quote']

 

I don't remember where I read the article, but given the distance and location of the home runs Jason Bay hit last year, had he hit those balls at Citi Field he would have a lot more HRs than he does now.

 

Mark Reynolds could be an interesting trade target: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/taking-a-swing-at-a-mark-reynolds-trade/

Reynolds would be like Ortiz in his prime, with a lot more strikeouts. But he's cost-controlled for quite a few years, and we may need a 3B (though he isn't very good defensively, which I've heard Theo values at the corner spots).

[Keeper]

If it's a choice between Reynolds and Beltre, I'll take Beltre.

[Dipre]

If it's a choice between Reynolds and Beltre' date=' I'll take Beltre.[/quote']

 

You mean Theo's worst signing of the off-season and the worst Red Sox 3B since Hobson?

 

Why would you take him over anybody?

[Keeper]

Just to be clear, I never said those things.

[Dipre]

Just to be clear' date=' I never said those things.[/quote']

 

I'm referencing the many, many people that labeled Beltre an inmediate bust after his rough April. Not anyone in particular.

[Keeper]

Yeah, I figured. Just wanted to clear up any confusion there might be, since you quoted me.

[example1]

What would it take to get Prince Fielder this offseason? Would he help this team?

 

Well, he led the NL in walks and had a really good OBP (.400+ for the past two seasons). He's also only 26 and is an established major league slugger. There's the weight thing, and obvious concerns about future injuries, but I saw this man's father and Prince is definitely a better hitter.

 

Through their Age 26 seasons:

[table] PLAYER | G | HR | RBI | BB | .BA | .OBP | .SLG | .OPS |

Father | 379 | 82 | 216 | 136 | .261 | .346 | .536 | .882 |

Son | 829 | 192 | 533 | 451 | .281 | .385 | .538 | .923 | [/table]

 

 

Prince has a remarkable skill set. If they think he's going to stay healthy for 5 years or so then they could invest a lot of resources in getting and keeping him.

 

His .385 career OBP is comparable to these current patient hitters:

 

10. Bobby Abreu .3998

11. Kevin Youkilis .3937

12. J.D. Drew .3878

13. Miguel Cabrera .387

14. Matt Holliday .387

15. Alex Rodriguez .387

16. Prince Fielder .385

17. Hanley Ramirez .3849

18. Travis Hafner .3845

19. Derek Jeter .3844

20. David Wright .3843

 

and his SLG is comparable to these current sluggers:

 

10. Lance Berkman .5457

11. Matt Holliday .5434

12. David Ortiz .5428

13. Prince Fielder .5382

14. Ken Griffey .5378

15. Mark Teixeira .5370

16. Chipper Jones .5361

17. Jim Edmonds .5271

18. Jason Giambi .5239

19. Adam Dunn .5223

20. Hanley Ramirez .5205

 

He's 14th in overall active OPS and ahead of Ortiz, Teixeira, Hanley, Dunn, Wright, Utley, Youkilis, Mauer, Adrian Gonzalez, and on and on.

 

This team has a gold-glove caliber 1B, so he would simply need to DH. If he's available I think the Sox have to make an aggressive run at him.

 

If they got Fielder I would be thrilled if they also signed Martinez and Beltre, plus a reliever or two.

 

Ellsbury

Pedroia

Fielder

Youkilis

Martinez

Beltre

Drew

Kalish

Scutaro

 

good lineup

[SCM33]

You mean Theo's worst signing of the off-season and the worst Red Sox 3B since Hobson?

 

Why would you take him over anybody?

 

I specifically made a thread about 4-5 months ago apologizing and admitting my defeats so screw you *******!!!!!!

 

JK, I really was truly wrong though.

 

One thing I wont be wrong about, he is not coming back.....and if I had a choice between him and Vmart, I take Vmart.

[a700hitter]

I don't remember where I read the article' date=' but given the distance and location of the home runs Jason Bay hit last year, had he hit those balls at Citi Field he would have a lot more HRs than he does now. [/quote']The problem with CitiField goes beyond it's mere dimensions. Hitters change their style when they get to that place. In 2009, the Mets hitting coach told Wright to forget about hitting the ball to RF just try to hit singles to RF. Wright has always had tremendous opposite field power. This change of approach ruined him in 2009. Bay was affected by the huge RF as he obvious was trying to jerk everything to LF. This screwed him up, and he didn't he the ball hard consistently. He didn't hit the balls that he hit for the Sox in 2009. The place was clearly in his head.

[a700hitter]

Mark Reynolds could be an interesting trade target: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/taking-a-swing-at-a-mark-reynolds-trade/

Reynolds would be like Ortiz in his prime, with a lot more strikeouts. But he's cost-controlled for quite a few years, and we may need a 3B (though he isn't very good defensively, which I've heard Theo values at the corner spots).

I like the idea of Reynolds if Beltre is too expensive. He Kks a ton, but he does walk a fair bit, and he can hit the ball out of Yellowstone Park.

[Palodios]

What would it take to get Prince Fielder this offseason? Would he help this team?

 

I don't think Fielder is the best option. I think that for value, Adam Dunn does a lot of the same things-- either a bad defensive 1B or DH type, who hits for power-- but costs a lot more in money and in prospects. Sure Dunn is five years older and his OBP is a bit lower, but he will only take a 2-3 year contract instead of Fielder's 5-7 $100-150 year contract. On top of that question-- Is it worth trading away can't-miss prospects for him? My answer is a definite no.

[a700hitter]

I don't think Fielder is the best option. I think that for value' date=' Adam Dunn does a lot of the same things-- either a bad defensive 1B or DH type, who hits for power-- but costs a lot more in money and in prospects. Sure Dunn is five years older and his OBP is a bit lower, but he will only take a 2-3 year contract instead of Fielder's 5-7 $100-150 year contract. On top of that question-- Is it worth trading away can't-miss prospects for him? My answer is a definite no.[/quote']

I am not big on Fielder. His father's body gave out early. Prince has the same body type. I would not be surprised if he is washed up shortly after Ortiz is done. I see no point in making a big investment in him.

[Palodios]

That too. Plus, you have to put into consideration that if they get him now for a 5-7 year extension, that means he'll be here for 6-8 years at high cost. If this team is planning to spend that much money they'll go for A-gon--or in a beautiful, ideal world, Pujols.

[Dipre]

The problem with CitiField goes beyond it's mere dimensions. Hitters change their style when they get to that place. In 2009' date=' the Mets hitting coach told Wright to forget about hitting the ball to RF just try to hit singles to RF. Wright has always had tremendous opposite field power. This change of approach ruined him in 2009. Bay was affected by the huge RF as he obvious was trying to jerk everything to LF. This screwed him up, and he didn't he the ball hard consistently. He didn't hit the balls that he hit for the Sox in 2009. The place was clearly in his head.[/quote']

 

Bay's pre-concussion home OPS was .880, right around his career mark, but he was miserable on the road with an OPS in the high .600's, how was Citi Field getting on his head in the road? In fact, we discussed this very issue once in a GT. Stop making excuses for him, you hate excuses.

[a700hitter]

Bay's pre-concussion home OPS was .880' date=' right around his career mark, but he was miserable on the road with an OPS in the high .600's, how was Citi Field getting on his head in the road? In fact, we discussed this very issue once in a GT. Stop making excuses for him, you hate excuses.[/quote']I'm not making excuses for him. He had a terrible year. I am making one point about Jason Bay-- his poor year had nothing to do with his knees and shoulders. The ballpark messed him up and his approach. That would not be limited to poor performance at home. The higher OPS at home is due mainly to his highher OBP and BA at home. His power game was completely screwed up on the road and at home. He had 3 HRs at home and 3 on the road. He stunk this year. There are no excuses. I do expect that he will be adjusted to the league and the park next season and he will rebound. Ascribing his poor performance to bad knees and shoulders would be making an excuse for him, because players have no control over injuries. You like that excuse, because it would make the Red Sox FO look prescient. His knees were good. He ran very well. He had no shoulder problems either. He did have a big headache at the end of the season. He sucked because he did not adjust to a new ballpark and a new league. That's his fault. It's not an excuse.

[Dojji]

Is this, or is it not, the same Jason Bay that was dominant for the Pirates before he came to Boston?

 

For the record, I think bringing back Beltre is, at this point, more important than bringing back Victor Martinez. If only because Beltre is more likely to still be playing third base regularly in 4 years, which is the likely minimum length of either player's new contract. I have no problem with letting VMart go for a pick and "figuring something out" at catcher, if you start with the presumption that VMart may not catch for much longer. Beltre on the other hand is elite at his position, at least this year, and if his price isn't a killer I'd like to see if he can do it again a few more times. He's had no real issues with his health and while I don't think he'll be as good as he was this year, he should still be more than serviceable. Vmart is much less likely to still retain his value by year 3.

 

Theo deciding to bring Salty in rather than a similar young 3B suggests to me that he's made the same call. He's putting himself in position to replace at catcher. And it's entirely possible that Lavarnway will force his hand in the next couple years too, he's looking fantastic, especially offensively.

[Yaz Sideburn]

Bay's pre-concussion home OPS was .880' date=' right around his career mark, but he was miserable on the road with an OPS in the high .600's, how was Citi Field getting on his head in the road? In fact, we discussed this very issue once in a GT. Stop making excuses for him, you hate excuses.[/quote']

 

yup. hard to blame city field for his issues when it was his hitting on the road that was the problem

[Dipre]

For the record, I think bringing back Beltre is, at this point, more important than bringing back Victor Martinez. If only because Beltre is more likely to still be playing third base regularly in 4 years, which is the likely minimum length of either player's new contract. I have no problem with letting VMart go for a pick and "figuring something out" at catcher, if you start with the presumption that VMart may not catch for much longer. Beltre on the other hand is elite at his position, at least this year, and if his price isn't a killer I'd like to see if he can do it again a few more times. He's had no real issues with his health and while I don't think he'll be as good as he was this year, he should still be more than serviceable. Vmart is much less likely to still retain his value by year 3.

 

Now everybody loves Beltre. I LOVE IT!

 

No more concerns abut the mileage in his body? :thumbsup:

[a700hitter]

Now everybody loves Beltre. I LOVE IT!

 

No more concerns abut the mileage in his body? :thumbsup:

Mileage on his body?

[Dipre]

Mileage on his body?

 

One of Doiji's big knocks against Beltre in the offseason was that because he has played so many games (he reached the league at a young age) with his body type and prior injuries, he was liable to break down at any moment.

[BSN07]

One of Doiji's big knocks against Beltre in the offseason was that because he has played so many games (he reached the league at a young age) with his body type and prior injuries' date=' he was liable to break down at any moment.[/quote']

 

I'd be lying if I didn't say I wasn't concerned a little abut his injury history. But really you have to have some mount of worry for any player. So I guess it wasn't anymore then usual.

 

As far as Beltre is concerned going forward. I believe if he stays with the Sox he will come back to Earth in some capacity. But I wouldn't be shocked if he gave "Lowell" type numbers. Possibly with a bit more power. I think the FO probably pictures the same and that's why I have said I expect them to offer him something like they did with Lowell after the 2007 season. But I don't expect them to go a lot higher. And I hope they don't. Beltre doesn't concern me for the next 1-2 seasons as much as he does 3-4 seasons from now. If he really is looking for a 5 year deal I really think they have to let him walk. 4 is even a stretch IMO. I hate for them to get into a Lowell/Damon type situation where the player can't play at the position he was signed for by the end of the contract.

[Dojji]

Now everybody loves Beltre. I LOVE IT!

 

No more concerns abut the mileage in his body? :thumbsup:

 

Those concerns are a lot easier to suppress when a player is playing well than when he's coming off the kind of year he had in 2009.