The "Unofficial Pre- Hot Stove (2010)" thread.

[Will617]

Colby Rasmus may be gone this offseason, but it depends on the price. If the Sox could swap Reddick and Bowden, or a similar package, for Rasmus, it would make this offseason a lot less complicated. Projecting for a post-Drew OF (assuming Kalish turns into an everyday major league player), the Sox would have three people that could play at least average defense in center (and likely be very good corner outfielders).

The only disadvantage is that Rasmus is left-handed and is terrible against lefties (.593 OPS career, .833 against righties). Given that the Sox have struggled to field anything resembling a major league lineup against lefties this season, I think they'd try to stay away from an Kalish-Ells-Rasmus OF if possible (although it's possible they would entertain a Kalish-Rasmus swap? Or maybe they could palm off Drew and eat some salary because La Russa would love his approach?)

[SCM33]

He's 28' date=' in 6 years he'll be 34, it's entirely possible that he'll still have all the speed he needs to be effective. SOme speedsters excel into their mid 30's some don't, it'll come down to his ability to get on base IMHO -- which is the big issue with Crawford.[/quote']

 

Base stealer's lose speed as they age. They do not lose their eye and instincts, which is why they are still referred to as base stealer's, not burners.

 

R. Henderson was a base stealer (stole 66 at the age of 39. 140 bases after the age of 40).

Vince Coleman was a burner who accumulated most of his stats before the age of 28.

 

Otis Nixon was a base stealer who aged well in the legs (stole 59 bases at the age of 38).

Kenny Lofton was a burner who was done stealing 40+ at the age of 31.

 

Juan Pierre, who many thought of as a burner....is creeping up the leader boards and minus the power has developed a nice offensive game...and going strong.

 

Tim Raines (who should be in the HOF) was a basestealer who turned in to a complete player, then was sapped of his speed because of injuries at the age of 32.

 

I think if Crawford continues his OB skills he could have a similar career to Raines.

 

The only reasons I see Crawford not coming to Boston over NY: Obviously the money....and second, Crawford could have potentially 6 years of accumulating cheap home run numbers playing in Yankee Stadium. If he plays there and hits 25-30 homers a year over the next few years, hes almost a lock for the HOF. If he chooses Boston, his personal numbers will suffer with the huge RF at Fenway.

[jacksonianmarch]

Base stealer's lose speed as they age. They do not lose their eye and instincts, which is why they are still referred to as base stealer's, not burners.

 

R. Henderson was a base stealer (stole 66 at the age of 39. 140 bases after the age of 40).

Vince Coleman was a burner who accumulated most of his stats before the age of 28.

 

Otis Nixon was a base stealer who aged well in the legs (stole 59 bases at the age of 38).

Kenny Lofton was a burner who was done stealing 40+ at the age of 31.

 

Juan Pierre, who many thought of as a burner....is creeping up the leader boards and minus the power has developed a nice offensive game...and going strong.

 

Tim Raines (who should be in the HOF) was a basestealer who turned in to a complete player, then was sapped of his speed because of injuries at the age of 32.

 

I think if Crawford continues his OB skills he could have a similar career to Raines.

 

The only reasons I see Crawford not coming to Boston over NY: Obviously the money....and second, Crawford could have potentially 6 years of accumulating cheap home run numbers playing in Yankee Stadium. If he plays there and hits 25-30 homers a year over the next few years, hes almost a lock for the HOF. If he chooses Boston, his personal numbers will suffer with the huge RF at Fenway.

 

I just dont see Crawford in NY. I know everyone is thinking he is coming to the Yanks, but where do they put him? Gardner in LF has been a revelation, and IMO is worth more to this team as a .390OBP guy out of the leadoff spot than Crawford would be as a .350OBP guy. Plus, Gardy is league minimum and has proven to be an elite defender with a very accurate arm. Granderson will be about $5-$7 mil cheaper and has shown a big jump in his hitting ability since the ASB (10HR .842OPS). You dont cut bait on that when you control him for reasonable money for 2 more yrs. Then you have Swish under contract for one more season in RF, and he's been our second most consistent hitter behind Cano. Do you get Crawford and move Swish to DH? Probably not since Montero should be in the bigs next yr effectively splitting catcher and DH down the middle with Posada AND needing a landing place for aging vets like Jeter and ARod. I just dont see it. We made our bed with big contracts to ARod, Tex and soon to be another one for Jeter (which I am opposed to, but its gonna happen). And the offense has produced as the top offense in the game. Sometimes if it aint broke, you dont fix it. I truly think this offseason is going to be spent with the Yankees adding Lee and doing some pen tweaking and trying to upgrade a bench that will be pressed into duty much more with the star veterans aging

[a700hitter]

I just dont see Crawford in NY. I know everyone is thinking he is coming to the Yanks' date=' but where do they put him? Gardner in LF has been a revelation, and IMO is worth more to this team as a .390OBP guy out of the leadoff spot than Crawford would be as a .350OBP guy. Plus, Gardy is league minimum and has proven to be an elite defender with a very accurate arm. Granderson will be about $5-$7 mil cheaper and has shown a big jump in his hitting ability since the ASB (10HR .842OPS). You dont cut bait on that when you control him for reasonable money for 2 more yrs. Then you have Swish under contract for one more season in RF, and he's been our second most consistent hitter behind Cano. Do you get Crawford and move Swish to DH? Probably not since Montero should be in the bigs next yr effectively splitting catcher and DH down the middle with Posada AND needing a landing place for aging vets like Jeter and ARod. I just dont see it. We made our bed with big contracts to ARod, Tex and soon to be another one for Jeter (which I am opposed to, but its gonna happen). And the offense has produced as the top offense in the game. Sometimes if it aint broke, you dont fix it. I truly think this offseason is going to be spent with the Yankees adding Lee and doing some pen tweaking and trying to upgrade a bench that will be pressed into duty much more with the star veterans aging[/quote']If the Yanks go back to back with a second championship, I don't see them spending a lot on new free agents. They like to make money too. They'll re-sign Jeter and Month and Pettitte will come back for another season (if God tells him to play). They'll have a top team without making any acquisitions. I don't see them getting Crawford as LF might be Jeter's future position. They have to hold something open for him as his SS days are almost over. Third and first are already taken, and Jeter is not a DH.

[example1]

If the Yanks go back to back with a second championship' date=' I don't see them spending a lot on new free agents. They like to make money too. They'll re-sign Jeter and Month and Pettitte will come back for another season (if God tells him to play). They'll have a top team without making any acquisitions. I don't see them getting Crawford as LF might be Jeter's future position. They have to hold something open for him as his SS days are almost over. Third and first are already taken, and Jeter is not a DH.[/quote']

 

Agreed. Serious question: is that a reason to hope they win the championship this year? Part of me is definitely hoping they become complacent and stick to their guns. That might be the only way the Sox have much of a chance to close the gap through FA.

[TheKilo]

The Mets said the same thing after last season. This year all of their big guns have been injured again.

 

The Mets are way way too top heavy. Their farm system sucks and when starters went down (a la Beltran) they had no capable replacements. When Pedroia goes down, the Sox have Lowrie, etc.

 

By the way, how right on was Theo about not re-signing Jason Bay?

[a700hitter]

Agreed. Serious question: is that a reason to hope they win the championship this year? Part of me is definitely hoping they become complacent and stick to their guns. That might be the only way the Sox have much of a chance to close the gap through FA.

It's a terrible position to be in, but we may be better off if the Yanks win. They will not be compelled to spend and the Sox may feel some urgency to close the gap. The Yankees winning will still make me miserable, so I will make some large bets on them to make myself feel better if they win.

[example1]

Another question: who does Crawford actually replace on this team? I think that Kalish is going to make it very difficult to keep him in th eminors or on the bench anymore. Drew won't be sitting down (though he could be a competent DH if Ortiz is released) and Ellsbury certainly has to play if healthy, both because they need to give him a chance to show what he can do and because his trade value will plummet if the Sox say he's not good enough to start for them.

 

IMO, if Crawford is going to be part of this team then Ellsbury would have to go. Given that he's entering arbitration (I believe), determined to get to FA (Boras) and simply not as consistent a leadoff hitter as they need, that seems like a very reasonable option.

 

The other question is whether he would leave TB for Boston. My initial thoughts are that he wouldn't, given that he would immediately become the Johnny Damon of the Rays. At the same time, the Rays don't have any actual fans, so the chances of him regretting that move for the rest of his life are pretty minimal. I think he'd be a good fit for the Sox, but am not sure he would want to come to Boston.

 

If he DID want to come to Boston, and they wanted him, that would really open the door for a lot of shifting that would probably benefit the Sox longterm. They could put Kalish in CF for a year until Drew leaves and then fill the CF hole later, or at least have a hole for Kalish in the roster. They could use Ellsbury + + for another big bat and either sign Beltre or not (personally, I think Beltre might like Boston).

 

If they don't get Crawford then I have a hard time seeing where this team moves forward for 2011. Werth is a good player but he wouldn't fill the void at leadoff that they have and becomes another aging middle-late order bat: a reincarnation of Drew basically.

 

I'm starting to wonder if Crawford could become 2010-2011's version of Mark Teixeira; a player the Sox covet who doesn't covet them. I have no confirmation that Theo is interested or that Crawford isn't, but given his drafts recently this is the type of player they have been picking up, speedy with some pop and OF versatility. He also hurts their closest competetor while helping the Sox.

 

It will be an interesting off season and I believe the Sox are at a real cross-roads in terms of their fans and the club overall. This ownership group has put a good team on the field and won two championships. They have been able to coast a few seasons on that success, but projecting forward it is clear that this team won't get there on its own as currently constructed. They need to make some moves aggressively or they will continue with the 2nd-3rd place finishes and 1st-2nd round exits in the playoffs.

 

It will be crunch time Theo; get'er done.

[example1]

It's a terrible position to be in' date=' but we may be better off if the Yanks win. They will not be compelled to spend and the Sox may feel some urgency to close the gap. [b']The Yankees winning will still make me miserable,[/b] so I will make some large bets on them to make myself feel better if they win.

 

Uhh, you're miserable already Clint. jk.

 

Go ahead and make your bets though, I'm pulling for you.

[Spudboy]

Crawford may end up an Angel.

[a700hitter]

Uhh, you're miserable already Clint. jk.

 

Go ahead and make your bets though, I'm pulling for you.

I honestly would not mind losing the money in the first round.

[a700hitter]

Another question: who does Crawford actually replace on this team? I think that Kalish is going to make it very difficult to keep him in th eminors or on the bench anymore. Drew won't be sitting down (though he could be a competent DH if Ortiz is released) and Ellsbury certainly has to play if healthy' date=' both because they need to give him a chance to show what he can do and because his trade value will plummet if the Sox say he's not good enough to start for them.[/quote']A year as our 4th OFer would do Kalish good. It would break him in without the tremendous pressure of having to be the next great LFer. He'll probably get 350-400 ABs in that role. Our 4th OFers always seem to get lots of PT. In 2012, maybe he takes Drews place or maybe he takes CF and Ellsbury gets traded. There's no rush with Kalish. Isn't only 22?

 

IMO' date=' if Crawford is going to be part of this team then Ellsbury would have to go. Given that he's entering arbitration (I believe), determined to get to FA (Boras) and simply not as consistent a leadoff hitter as they need, that seems like a very reasonable option.[/quote']I think that we'd have them both for a season, and I 'd be loving all that speed. It was a dimension that we didn't have this season. Crawford and Ellsbury running wild with Kalish off the bench. That's a lot of speed and that puts a lot of pressure on defenses.

 

The other question is whether he would leave TB for Boston. My initial thoughts are that he wouldn't' date=' given that he would immediately become the Johnny Damon of the Rays. At the same time, the Rays don't have any actual fans, so the chances of him regretting that move for the rest of his life are pretty minimal. I think he'd be a good fit for the Sox, but am not sure he would want to come to Boston.[/quote']He will go where the money takes him, and if the Yanks don't make a play, the Sox are one of the few options. As for the Rays fans turning on him, maybe both of them will send him hate mail.

 

I'm starting to wonder if Crawford could become 2010-2011's version of Mark Teixeira; a player the Sox covet who doesn't covet them. I have no confirmation that Theo is interested or that Crawford isn't' date=' but given his drafts recently this is the type of player they have been picking up, speedy with some pop and OF versatility. He also hurts their closest competetor while helping the Sox[/quote']You are over-thinking and projecting here. There are no indications that that might be the case.

 

 

It will be crunch time Theo; get'er done.

Agreed. Hoyer is making a name for himself in San Diego. Let's hope we didn't pick the wrong guy.

[BSN07]

Hoyer has made a couple decent trades and a couple minimal FA signings. I don't believe he had anything to do with drafting and developing most if not all of the home grown talent that is currently playing for the Padres. That credit goes to the previous regime. Not saying Hoyer hasn't helped, but it's not like he built that roster from the ground up.

 

Other then that, I agree with you guys. We might have to deal with the Yankees winning again to spur the Sox into action. I think i can deal though.

 

Crawford would be a great pick up. Weakens the Rays(although Jennings looks to be a good replacement) and strengthens the Sox. He would be great to add to the top of the lineup.

 

At first I didn't like the idea of Kalish being the 4th OF. But he would get a good amount of AB's. And I think he replaces JD after next season.

[a700hitter]

Other then that, I agree with you guys. We might have to deal with the Yankees winning again to spur the Sox into action. I think i can deal though.

That's easy for you to say since you don't live among the evil Yankee fans in NY and you don't live in the US.

[Station 13]

ESPN reporting the FO is considering picking up Ortiz's option. I would rather they do that than sign an extension that they will be responsible for additional year(s).

[Meh]

If the Yanks go back to back with a second championship' date=' I don't see them spending a lot on new free agents. They like to make money too. They'll re-sign Jeter and Month and Pettitte will come back for another season (if God tells him to play). They'll have a top team without making any acquisitions. I don't see them getting Crawford as LF might be Jeter's future position. They have to hold something open for him as his SS days are almost over. Third and first are already taken, and Jeter is not a DH.[/quote']

 

Well I could, winning = money... haha, they made massive amounts last year and will make even more this year as they are outselling last years ticket numbers. They are also making YES go national, they could probably house a $400 million payroll in three years and make the same type of money they are now(close to $250 million in profit)

 

One thing is for certain the Red Sox off season should be very interesting.

[BSN07]

That's easy for you to say since you don't live among the evil Yankee fans in NY and you don't live in the US.

 

Yes not living in the "belly of the beast" has it's advantages I still hate the thought of the Yankees winning again. But if it "forces the FO hand" so to speak, then so be it. As hard as that is to say. Of course thinking of the Sox possibly blocking a Yankee 3-peat be nice

[example1]

ESPN reporting the FO is considering picking up Ortiz's option. I would rather they do that than sign an extension that they will be responsible for additional year(s).

 

I like it. One more year and that's it. No negotiations, no having to worry about it all offseason. The big bats (Gonzalez, Fielder, Pujols maybe) become available after next year. He will probably cost more than he's worth and perhaps be a bit pissed off, but he signed the contract with the option in it and they included it for a reason--namely so they would have this flexability when it matters.

[jacksonianmarch]

It's a good move

[jacksonianmarch]

whaddya think the chances are DiceK gets moved and Doubront enters the rotation?

[WhiskeyBreath]

Extremely unlikely.

[WhiskeyBreath]

Ellsbury and Lowrie for Rasmus please.

[a700hitter]

Ellsbury and Lowrie for Rasmus please.

I don't want any part of LaRussa's part time players.

[jacksonianmarch]

Rasmus is a star on the rise. But you wont have to worry about that. LaRussa is getting shitcanned this offseason

[WhiskeyBreath]

I don't want any part of LaRussa's part time players.

 

Rasmus is going to be a damn good player.

[a700hitter]

Rasmus is a star on the rise. But you wont have to worry about that. LaRussa is getting shitcanned this offseason

I thought Ludwick was on his way to stardom. No thanks.

[WhiskeyBreath]

Ludwick? rofl

[jacksonianmarch]

Ludwick was a career AAAA player until he found LaRussa. Rasmus is a 5 star prospect

[a700hitter]

Ludwick was a career AAAA player until he found LaRussa. Rasmus is a 5 star prospect

I've seen him against the Mets. Small sample size, yes, but I'm not bowled over by him enough to trade two young major leaguers for him.

[Dojji]

Rasmus is solid and would help us. Legitimate 5-tool potential there. I would gladly swap them Reddick and Ellsbury if they're sick of Rasmus.