The "Unofficial Pre- Hot Stove (2010)" thread.

[BSN07]

Broxton was sucking big time. It was not just a kick in the ass. He was having some major meltdowns.

 

Ok. Well there may be incentive to move him then. He isn't the only guy that could probably use a change of scenery on that team. It's risky of course. But he is probably a better option for set up duties then most other names I have seen.

[BSN07]

Damon 0 fer 6 today on a team going nowhere. f*** him. He's dead to me.

 

[a700hitter]

Ok. Well there may be incentive to move him then. He isn't the only guy that could probably use a change of scenery on that team. It's risky of course. But he is probably a better option for set up duties then most other names I have seen.

He has that Eric Gagne look about him.

[BSN07]

He has that Eric Gagne look about him.

 

That thought did cross my mind.

[a700hitter]

That thought did cross my mind.

Torre never punishes his guy. Broxton has really been s***ing the bed.

[example1]

This season has been a bit of a slow death. Are we ready to reexamine the possibilities of the 2011 season again?

 

I wouldn't be shocked if a few of the Sox FAs prefered to stay in Boston with a shot to win a championship. If Ortiz, Martinez and/or Beltre wanted to finish the prime of their careers as an important part of a championship team, they may prefer to give it another shot with the Red Sox. I don't expect those guys to take "hometown discounts" (certainly Boras will have something to say about that) but if I were a veteran like Martinez or Beltre I would want to play on a championship team. Both are very good players, some of the best at their position for a 5-6 year period, but neither has a ring to put them in the history books. It's probably just the historical side of me that thinks they might actually care about that. This roster had the potential to win a World Series, especially with its mix of pitching and offense, veteran leadership and young talent. They didn't get the breaks they needed and consistently hasn't been able to make up the ground.

 

I would not blame the Sox if they tried to sign all 3 of those guys back one way or another. Beltre is simply the best 3B option, and it doesn't seem close. They don't have anything internally (Lowrie?) and there aren't any great 3B FAs (certainly none with a better track record than Beltre).

 

V-Mart fits in the same category. Best offensive catcher, versatile to play multiple positions and switch-hit. One of the league's best hitters when he's dialed in. He has said he likes Boston. Of course, in traditionial fashion, it sounds like there haven't really been discussions yet. This is the annual routine of the Sox refusing to negotiate with some of their best players, waiting until the off-season, not overpaying, watching their talent go elsewhere for too much money. If other teams are intersted they will be able to buy 2010's version of Jason Bay.

 

Ortiz probably has the most to lose by leaving. Like it or not, he's a bit of a cult hero to Bostonians after all this time. He wouldn't bring the same aura for most other teams. Also, Fenway suits him, as does the DH position. The Sox have an option for Ortiz, and could just assure themselves of having him with an agreement to pick it up. If they're going to sign him to an extension it really can't be longer than two years. Preferably one. The Sox can't really afford to have David Ortiz as the offensive Tim Wakefield with a rolling reasonable contract. I think there's too few roster spots and this FO really wants to be able to be versatile on the field. Ortiz is a drag on their roster if he's not a remarkably good offensive player.

[Dojji]

Beltre has options if he wants to play on a contender. There's surprisingly few established 3B out there and even many contenders are looking for a good one. I think the bidding war for Beltre will price him out of Boston. Wouldn't mind holding onto him but I don't see it as feasible.

 

As for Ortiz, cut the cord. I know he probably has a couple years of life left in him, but play it safe with the guy and certainly don't sign a 34 year old to the kind of multiyear extension he's going to want. His knees are going to play out on him sometime in the next few years and it's not going to be fun.

 

Martinez I try to keep, but if he won't stay for reasonable money, we have alternatives that don't look bad to me. Frankly I like Saltalamacchia, and I think he's still got a chance to come on strong, and if not, we do have guys like Exposito and Lavarnway coming up the pipe -- limping along with Salty and a Miguel Olivo type for a season or two in the meantime isn't the worst thing ever.

[Spudboy]

I wouldn't at all be surprised to see Tek back with Boston next year.

[Dojji]

As a coach.

[jacksonianmarch]

Beltre has options if he wants to play on a contender. There's surprisingly few established 3B out there and even many contenders are looking for a good one. I think the bidding war for Beltre will price him out of Boston. Wouldn't mind holding onto him but I don't see it as feasible.

 

As for Ortiz, cut the cord. I know he probably has a couple years of life left in him, but play it safe with the guy and certainly don't sign a 34 year old to the kind of multiyear extension he's going to want. His knees are going to play out on him sometime in the next few years and it's not going to be fun.

 

Martinez I try to keep, but if he won't stay for reasonable money, we have alternatives that don't look bad to me. Frankly I like Saltalamacchia, and I think he's still got a chance to come on strong, and if not, we do have guys like Exposito and Lavarnway coming up the pipe -- limping along with Salty and a Miguel Olivo type for a season or two in the meantime isn't the worst thing ever.

 

Dojji, you need to remember the market you are in. "Reasonable money" isnt really that feasible when you are talking about the second biggest spending team in baseball. And "limping" along at a position that you have gotten elite production out of for the last yr and a half without significantly upgrading elsewhere makes you worse in a division that has the Yankees and the Rays and now the Jays.

 

I expect the sox to lose Beltre. Teams like Anaheim, Detroit, LAD, White Sox, and a few other large market clubs need offense more than the sox and have openings at 3b. Boras is his agent, so you know emotion has nothing to do with it. And there is no other 3b on the market even close. And he would have an easier time getting to the postseason in a divison that didnt have buzzsaws like the Yanks and Rays in it. The sox do have a viable alternative to him in moving Youkilis to 3b and signing a 1b like Pena. That would still be a downgrade, but not a huge one.

 

Their DH spot could be easily filled by one of the other FAs out there. Konerko, maybe? But it is pretty easy to just take on that option and keep Papi here one more yr. It is much better than offering him a multiyr deal and probably easier to save face with him than to deny the option and sign him for something lower. He's pretty emotional and he does seem to have that "respect/diva" presence to him, so he might leave out of spite if the sox do that. Granted, his market is severely limited since he cannot play in the NL and the biggest spender has no need for him (NYY). But I am sure Anaheim or Texas would shell out some cash for him as their DH since Vlad will get paid and Matsui is gonna be out of Anaheim.

 

In terms of catcher, there are other options. You could fill it internally, but Salty has never proven that he can hit consistently at the big league level. Starting him without a solid backup would be a potential disaster. If he comes out with a .200/.250/.350 line for the first 2 months, the fans will be in despair. You could go out and sign Olivo, although he and VMart are really the only 2 starting caliber catchers who will be on the market, and he isnt going to come cheap. You could resign VMart and consider him a C/1b hybrid and not sign Pena for 1b.

 

Regardless, it will be interesting. But not resigning your own guys is a downgrade most anyway you look at it. And a downgrade from a non-playoff (granted absolutely snakebit) team is not a good PR move and probably not a good baseball move

[TheKilo]

Good thread. My ideal offseason plan has been covered in bits and pieces throughout the thread but I figured I'd put my wish list down in one place.

 

First, I'd exercise the 12.5 mil option for Ortiz. Is it an overpay? Possibly. But it's one year and he has shown that he can still be a productive player for this team. I am in no way comfortable with signing him past next season.

 

I would try to trade Ellsbury/prospects for Matt Kemp. Rumor has it he is not happy in LA and the guy is a legitimate five tool player. With the emergence of Buchholz I'd even contemplate giving up Kelly.

 

Let Victor walk and go hard after Mike Napoli. I'd be fine with a rotation of Napoli/Saltalamacchia at C, and if you can't re-sign Beltre they'd split time at first as well.

 

With regards to Beltre, I wouldn't offer him more than 4/48, I think he's due for a regression next season but I also think he can be a very valuable piece considering his defense. I'd be wary of exceeding that deal in years or dollars.

 

I'd go hard after Jayson Werth, as I think he is the RHH bat this team needs, especially if Beltre is not resigned. His defense was called subpar earlier in the thread but it's actually been very good until this year. As noted, the H/A splits are not concerning.

 

I think the rotation is set, you go to war with those five and hope that Beckett and Lackey bounce back. I keep Doubront in the pen and try to sign Downs/Thornton/Fuentes to round out the pen. As much as he's killed us in some games, I do not trade Papelbon and continue to use Bard as the relief ace.

[TheKilo]

Ideal 2011 Sox:

 

C - Napoli

1B - Youkilis

2B - Pedroia

SS - Lowrie

3B - Beltre

LF - Werth

CF - Kemp

RF - Drew

DH - Ortiz

 

Bench - Saltalamacchia. Scutaro, Nava, Hall (or FA)

 

SP1- Lester

SP2 - Buchholz

SP3 - Lackey

SP4 - Beckett

SP5 - Matsuzaka

 

Bullpen - Papelbon, Bard, Downs, Thornton, Doubront, Bowden, Atchison/Wakefield

[jacksonianmarch]

I think dealing Kelly is the only way to go. First off, he isnt ready and probably needs to repeat AA

 

Second off, if he catches fire next yr and comes out dominating AA and AAA, where does he go? You have DiceK under control through 2012. You have Lackey under control for 4 more yrs. Lester for 4 more yrs. Buchholz for 4 more yrs. Beckett for 4 more yrs. He is a top notch prospect at a position that has no openings until 2013. And you have a weak FA class and tons of other holes on your team that could be filled via trade.

 

I think Kelly gets moved this offseason. He's been hyped as the next sox ace. He was shut down at 95IP. And he doesnt have a sure spot in the organization. I think he moves for a big bat, and I think Fielder might be that guy

[jacksonianmarch]

Kilo, getting Kemp is going to cost you more than Ellsbury. Ellsbury right now is at an all time low and even though Kemp and the dodgers are fighting right now, I think the dodgers know he is their future in CF.

[TheKilo]

Which is why I said I'd include Kelly in a deal for Kemp. I'd give them Kalish and whatever other high ceiling arm they'd want as well.

[jacksonianmarch]

Ah, missed that

[Station 13]

I think dealing Kelly is the only way to go. First off, he isnt ready and probably needs to repeat AA

 

Second off, if he catches fire next yr and comes out dominating AA and AAA, where does he go? You have DiceK under control through 2012. You have Lackey under control for 4 more yrs. Lester for 4 more yrs. Buchholz for 4 more yrs. Beckett for 4 more yrs. He is a top notch prospect at a position that has no openings until 2013. And you have a weak FA class and tons of other holes on your team that could be filled via trade.

 

I think Kelly gets moved this offseason. He's been hyped as the next sox ace. He was shut down at 95IP. And he doesnt have a sure spot in the organization. I think he moves for a big bat, and I think Fielder might be that guy

 

Kelly is 20. He will not be ready till after 2013, way after Dice-K departed. Then Lackey and Beckett are near the end of their deals at the time hopefully he steps in and fill as the back end guy and developed into a mid rotation starer.

 

I don't like Fielders. Don't want to give prospects and handout a blank check for the fatso. They could wait for A-Gon to hit FA in 2012 off season. They could sign Dunn to play 1B this offseason and move Youk to 3B in the event Beltre leaves (I expect him elsewhere).

[TheKilo]

Another thing to consider is the Sox are just over a year away from potentially being able to sign Gonzalez or Pujols to play 1B, without any interference from the Yankees.

 

Maybe a Dunn deal to play 1B for next season, then DH afterwards?

[Dojji]

"No interference from NYY" doesn't mean "no interference." The Cubs are going to be after a 1B and you know there'll be a team or two that do what it take to MAKE room for a guy like Pujols in particular.

 

Put another way, when was the last time THIS front office really went out and spent the money it needed to bring in the best bats in free agency?

 

if the answer is "never" (and it is) then what makes you think that'll change next year?

[TheKilo]

I'm simply saying it's something to consider. I don't believe for a STL let's Pujols walk but it could absolutely happen and as such the FO should have a plan for it.

 

You'll notice my ideal lineup does not include Dunn, nor will there be room for a Gonzalez or Pujols.

 

Methinks you're arguing for the sake of arguing, but that's your SOP anyway. Good to see, even almost a year after I stopped posting regularly.

[a700hitter]

"No interference from NYY" doesn't mean "no interference." The Cubs are going to be after a 1B and you know there'll be a team or two that do what it take to MAKE room for a guy like Pujols in particular.

 

Put another way, when was the last time THIS front office really went out and spent the money it needed to bring in the best bats in free agency?

 

if the answer is "never" (and it is) then what makes you think that'll change next year?

What has changed is that until 2010 this FO had no need to go out and get a big bat. For their entire tenure they have had big boppers. In 2002 they had Nomar and Manny. From 2003 to 2008 they had Manny and Ortiz smack in the middle of their lineup. Most teams would be lucky to have one guy like that. In 2009, they swapped Bay for Manny and still had Ortiz and Youk had become a star. Now there is no Manny or Bay and no one replaced them. Beltre did for 2010, but he can walk. Ortiz is still productive, but aging. The difference is looking ahead to 2011 it will be the first year where the FO has a big need for a big bat. Circumstances have changed.

[Dojji]

This franchise has never been in a better position to trade for Hanley Ramirez.

 

Just saying. He's never been more expensive for the Marlins, he's never had a worse year, and we've got a lot of guys who are in the "almost but not quite MLB ready" position that FLA likes.

 

I'd like to do it without parting with Kalish, and I think that can be done if we can headline the trade with someone like Iglesias plus Ryan Lavarnway. It'd take more pieces than that of course, but you have to start with those two at least.

 

And then, with Hanley in tow, sign another bat or reinvest in Beltre and we're good.

[Dojji]

Just as an aside, Ryan Lavanrway's way underrated both here and at SP. I know he's between positions a bit, but that's because his bat is carrying him faster than his glove can keep up -- move him formally to first base instead of repeating the mistake they made with Jon Still and you have a top 5 offensive prospect easily. His bat could probably play in the bigs in a year, whether he gets the chance will come down to whether the FO still thinks he's a catcher (he did a lot of DH'ing this year, not a great sign).

[jacksonianmarch]

Top 5 offensive prospect in all of baseball? Seriously Dojji, cmon now. He's a 1b, he's 23 yrs old in AA. He's playing at league level and he is hitting well. But top 5 offensive prospect? Hardly. You'd put him on the level of Montero, Heyward, etc?

[Dojji]

Did I say "in all of baseball?"

 

Honestly, what I actually say can be ridiculous enough, there's little need to compound that by putting words in my mouth.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

I wouldn't be shocked if a few of the Sox FAs prefered to stay in Boston with a shot to win a championship. If Ortiz' date=' Martinez and/or Beltre wanted to finish the prime of their careers as an important part of a championship team, they may prefer to give it another shot with the Red Sox. I don't expect those guys to take "hometown discounts" (certainly Boras will have something to say about that) but if I were a veteran like Martinez or Beltre I would want to play on a championship team. Both are very good players, some of the best at their position for a 5-6 year period, but neither has a ring to put them in the history books. It's probably just the historical side of me that thinks they might actually care about that. This roster had the potential to win a World Series, especially with its mix of pitching and offense, veteran leadership and young talent. They didn't get the breaks they needed and consistently hasn't been able to make up the ground.[/quote']

 

Or maybe they'd want to go secure their final lucrative contracts. I don't think the players are really operating on their chances to win anymore.

 

And am I the only one looking at all the 'bring back Beltre' talk and thinking about his first season in Seattle (which has more or less been every season of his career)?

[jacksonianmarch]

Or maybe they'd want to go secure their final lucrative contracts. I don't think the players are really operating on their chances to win anymore.

 

And am I the only one looking at all the 'bring back Beltre' talk and thinking about his first season in Seattle (which has more or less been every season of his career)?

 

Why do people equate Boston with a "chance to win" right now. The Red Sox are in a division with 2 other powerhouses and another emerging powerhouse in Toronto. The sox are probably reaching 90 wins and being shut out of the playoffs. A chance to win essentially means getting to the playoffs. It would be much easier to get to the playoffs outside of the AL East. Players in their prime come to Boston and New York for one reason, and one reason only. To get paid. Very, very few players in their primes uproot their entire families for a "last shot" at a ring without much monetary compensation. You typically only see that in the cases like Berkman or Oswalt. Productive guys towards the end of their careers who are playing out the last yr or 2 yrs of a massive contract and get TRADED to the big market club. You rarely, rarely see a early 30s player taking a paycut on their last big contract to get a ring

[TheKilo]

Lol on what planet is Toronto an emerging powerhouse? Even with all of the red Sox injuries they are 7 games back, and I don't think they've got much of a chance to improve on where they already are. They're a .500 team in this division.

 

The Rays are about to be decimated, losing Crawford, Pena, and their entire bullpen. I still think they threaten 90 wins next season but I think a healthy Sox team surpasses them.

[jacksonianmarch]

Lol on what planet is Toronto an emerging powerhouse? Even with all of the red Sox injuries they are 7 games back, and I don't think they've got much of a chance to improve on where they already are. They're a .500 team in this division.

 

The Rays are about to be decimated, losing Crawford, Pena, and their entire bullpen. I still think they threaten 90 wins next season but I think a healthy Sox team surpasses them.

 

The Rays are about to replace Crawford with Crawford-II in Jennings. I think they sign Soriano, to be honest with you, since he really is the only irreplaceable guy they would be losing. And they will address Pena leaving via trade. They have incredible depth at the SP position with McGee, Moore, and Hellickson coming down the pipe. My guess is that Garza or Shields gets moved for a big bopper. Regardless, if you think the Rays are falling off the map, you have another thing coming.

 

And the Rays might be the only franchise that could deal with completely bombing on the #1 overall pick (Beckham has been horrid) and still have an incredible farm system

[Dojji]

Technically the phrase should be "if you think that _____ you have another THINK coming."

 

Just saying. It bugs me a little. The other way makes no grammatical sense whatsoever.