Vmart/Beltre/Ortiz --who do you keep?

[Palodios]

So, looking at the production of the Red Sox 4, 5, and 6 hitters, it makes me wonder, what should this team do with them. There seem to be a lot of people here that think all of them will be gone by the end of the season, but I have been looking at the stats and the numbers, and it might make sense to keep atleast two of them.

 

Beltre .335 BA, .940 OPS, 19 HR

 

Ortiz .261 BA, .909 OPS, 23 HR

 

Let's compare them to the biggest three names suggested for corner infield.

 

A-gon .289, .890 OPS, 21 HR

 

Fielder .267, .892 OPS, 24 HR

 

Dunn .277, .943 OPS, 28 HR

 

It was a bit of a revelation to me that all these big names were performing at the same level as two guys the team already has.

 

Adrian Gonzalez plays solid 1B, but any of those other guys are significant defensive dropoffs from Youkilis. Even so, moving Youk to 3B hurts the defense at 3rd. Beltre's stats won't stay that high for long, but his defense will be better, and he'll be cheaper. If they can get him for the right price, they need to bring him back. The difference of money between Beltre and A-gon will go a long way towards a new outfielder.

 

 

Vmart .285 BA, .809 OPS, 9 HR

We saw what happened to this offense without a high caliber bat from C. Any other catcher would hurt the team.

 

 

Keep- Vmart

Trade- Beltre

Keep- Ortiz, short term only.

[Dojji]

None of them. V-Mart and Beltre won't stay and Ortiz won't stay for the deal I'd offer him.

[redsoxrules]

None of them. V-Mart and Beltre won't stay and Ortiz won't stay for the deal I'd offer him.

 

no , its because you want Lowrie to play SS, scutaro 3rd , move JD to DH and have Kalish start in RF and have Lars the back up at 1B

[redsoxrules]

on a serious note... I'd keep Beltre and V-mart and let go Ortiz

[italstallianion]

It depends, will V-mart and Beltre be type A free agents?

[jacksonianmarch]

Yes, they both are.

 

I'd go with percentages here.

 

10% chance Beltre stays. Multiple reasons why. Boras is the agent, Beltre has no true connection to Boston and came to Boston, IMO, to recoup his value, which he did. He's early 30s, meaning he has 1 big contract left and I know the sox wont be giving it to him

 

50% chance VMart stays. I think the sox would like to offer him a 4 yr deal in the $50 mil range with the overall intent of him transitioning from a full time catcher role to a part time C role with 1B and DH as options. VMart will get bigger offers, but will he be true to his word and stay in Boston if a fair deal is offered?

 

75% chance Ortiz stays. The sox will decline his option. The sox will offer him a deal a la Vlad Guerrero. Ortiz will initially be pissed off, thinking that Boston is lowballing him, until he sees the deals on the table are less than what the sox are offering him. My speculation is that he will return to Boston, but the 25% chance he leaves is if some team is stupid enough to pay him like it's 2005 again

[Will617]

Beltre apparently likes playing in Boston and is a good presence in the clubhouse. I don't think that'll get him to take a lower offer from Boston, though.

I think both V-Mart and Ortiz stay. Ortiz will get a 2 year deal worth less than his option per year, but gives him financial security. V-Mart will get a slightly lower offer (given that the Sox view him as a catcher, then a 1B/DH of the future) and takes it.

More like 15%/65%/90% IMO.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Damn, I really don't know on this one.

[Spudboy]

Ortiz will be back. 2/14 -2/18 should go it.

 

V-Mart should be back. 4/48-4-54, hopefully.

 

Beltre is likely gone. He won't take what the Sox will likely offer him.

[soxfan74]

Beltre should be first on that list. Then V-Mart. Let Ortiz walk. V-Mart makes more sense as A DH /1st base / Catcher. Ortiz is A DH only. Youk is gone for the season, and it doesn't even appear to be an option for Ortiz to play First base. Thats Ridiculous.

[WhiskeyBreath]

Beltre should be first on that list. Then V-Mart. Let Ortiz walk. V-Mart makes more sense as A DH /1st base / Catcher. Ortiz is A DH only. Youk is gone for the season' date=' and it doesn't even appear to be an option for Ortiz to play First base. Thats Ridiculous.[/quote']

 

There's a problem with that. Martinez will want to be paid like a catcher.

[Dojji]

I hadn't realized Victor was only going into his age 32 season -- I had it in my head that he was older than that.

 

I wouldn't mind keeping him around for 3-4 years if the price is right. I don't think we have any options that are a better all around package than than Martinez, and if that ever changes, V-Mart has a bit of versatility to him because he has experience at 1B, so it's relatively low risk for an over-30 catcher.

[Will617]

Beltre has been the best Sox player this season (excepting maybe Lester and Buchholz, but that'd be comparing apples and oranges). The problem is that he will be drastically overpaid based solely upon this year, and the Sox already have a Gold Glove 3B (Youkilis), meaning they can fill 1B with a crap fielder (i.e. Fielder).

Ortiz has been having a terrific year. It'd make sense for the Sox to give him a low-risk extension, as they don't have a pressing need to move anyone else into the DH spot on a regular basis (since everyone else plays decent defense except maybe VMart, but most of his value is tied into the fact that he plays the most defensively demanding position).

[Palodios]

There's a problem with that. Martinez will want to be paid like a catcher.

 

1B/DH types with .800 OPS get one year deals from 4-7 million. As a catcher, he's worth substantially more than that, and I see no problem giving him a 4/50 type deal.

[WhiskeyBreath]

I'm very leery of signing Beltre to a deal this off season. It's not a coincidence he's putting up huge numbers in a contract year.

[Dojji]

The only way I'd sign him long term is to a perpetual $12M/year Wakefield-style option. That way he has some security and every year is like a contract year.

[example1]

It was a bit of a revelation to me that all these big names were performing at the same level as two guys the team already has.

 

Okay, I'm a fair person and someone who does not say these things lightly.

 

I think Beltre and Ortiz are juicing. There. I said it.

 

The financial payoff for these guys is worth the potential embarassment of being caught. Both are FAs, both had miraculous turn arounds when it mattered the most. I don't like thinking that and I hope I'm wrong, but it is simply too suspicious.

[WhiskeyBreath]

The only way I'd sign him long term is to a perpetual $12M/year Wakefield-style option. That way he has some security and every year is like a contract year.

 

0% chance that ever happens.

[Palodios]

I'm not entirely convinced. Ortiz has looked substantially smaller at the plate (although supposedly he's the same weight). In 2008, Ortiz was underperforming because of his wrist injury, in 2009, he slumped the first half of the year, and then exploded. This year, he looked outmatched at the beginning of the year and exploded again. I also think Ortiz values his reputation in Boston. What they did in 2004 meant so much, and the steroid allegations against him are bad, but not Clemmons/Bonds bad. If he's caught again, he'll be the shame of the city.

 

I'm not necessarily saying he isn't juicing, I just think that whatever his steroid use has been--yes or no-- its been consistent, and that you can't necessarily blame good or bad years on varied usage.

[Dojji]

0% chance that ever happens.

 

 

 

No kidding. Just take the picks on Beltre. He's useful, but he's trouble on a longterm deal, and not just for opposing pitchers.

[WhiskeyBreath]

Agreed. You read that fangraphs article where they think he's going to get a 3 year deal between 36 and 45MM?

[Dojji]

Don't do much with Fangraphs, but I have a fair read on Beltre's character and it surprises me not at all.

 

With premium 3B so darn hard to find he'll get it too.

[italstallianion]

Here's my take.

 

Beltre - 5% likely to return. I'd put it was 0%, but I felt optimistic. In any event, Beltre has played way too good to want what Boston wants to give him, and with Boras as his agent, he's definitely going to want to test the market. He's a type A, so Boston won't mind getting the draft picks, and I think that Boston would be concerned to sign Beltre to a long term deal because of potential inconsistencies between contract years. I think that this is another chapter in the "sign a veteran looking for a chance to redeem himself" phase.

 

V-mart - 75% likely to return. I really think the Sox are going to give V-mart close to what he wants. The Red Sox really do need a catcher, and even if he might better be served as a 1B/DH, I think that the Sox will give into his demands in order to ensure his production behind the plate and fit more powerful options at 1B/DH/3B etc. I think that signing him would be more beneficial than letting him go for 2 draft picks and starting Salty.

 

Ortiz - 85% likely to return. At the beginning of the season, I was going to say 5-10% since there'd be no shot at him getting the $12 million option, but now, he's played well enough that the Sox may either take the option and then end the Ortiz chapter in Boston history, or they may decline the option and sign him to a longer year/smaller AAV type contract. In any event, I definitely see him in Boston for at least one more year.

[TedWilliams101]

I love Beltre, but I too worry that he's as extreme a "contract year player" as it gets. The 2 major outlier seasons in his career have both been major contract years and the difference in performance is drastic. On the other hand, his line isn't THAT far off from his career line away from SafeCo and he didn't perform well before getting injured last year, so maybe its just BS. Perhaps things will be different if he were to sign a multi-year deal with the Sox, but the concern is certainly real. It's decisions like this that make me glad I'm not in Theo's shoes.

[example1]

Beltre and Martinez both seem like the more difficult players to replace. A switch-hitting catcher who can also play 1B, and a power-hitting, gold glove 3B. I don't see any obvious C or 3B candidates over the next 2 years, either through development or in FA. Projecting 3 years ahead I can imagine a few prospects who could fill those positions, but over the short-term it is hazy.

 

Ortiz is a different story. His bat is valuable but he locks up a roster spot. This is a franchise that likes to maxamize its resources and their roster flexability has been hindered by having one of the only pure DH's in the league. They have some important aging veterans (Youkilis and Drew) who would benefit from having regular rests at DH. Having Ortiz makes that more difficult.

 

I bet Ortiz gets offered what they want to pay him (2 yrs/$14m total?) If he leaves they open a spot and are assured of not getting into a bad contract.

 

The Sox could offer Victor Martinez 4 years, $40m and he might be happy with that. It would make him the third highest paid catcher in baseball behind Mauer and Posada and give him some security for a few years. Between C, 1B and DH they could afford to move him around and could even end his role as catcher altogether if they are able to upgrade at that position. Martinez has a .842 OPS since 2005. He's clearly a good MLB hitter and would be valuable as a DH and 1B if he got a lot worse defensively. He would only be 35 when the contract ended.

 

Beltre's spike in offensive production concerns me, but he's a 3-5 WAR player every year because of his defense. He could command $10m per-year too.

 

All in all (chance of resigning):

 

Martinez (50%)

Beltre (20%)

Ortiz (20%)

[SoxSport]

None of them. V-Mart and Beltre won't stay and Ortiz won't stay for the deal I'd offer him.

 

worst case scenario.

 

Beltre has these monster contract years, then declines. Boras is a negative. But you never know.Maybe he likes Fenway. Fenway likes him.

 

VMart would be a good sign--as DH, catcher and 1B. Switch hitter. Depends on the money.

He's worth $12-14mil, 3 years? He'll want 4.

 

Papi is gone. Can't hit LHP. Overrated at this point. Big ego. Will want too much money.

Starting him against CC was a joke, and they knew it.

 

Aside from these guys, they'll never beat the Yankees without some more LHP. Lackey was a waste of money. To beat NY in Yankee Stadium, you need LHd starters. Doubront is a better start there than Lackey or Beckett--the way he is pitching. Imagine, their most expensive starters have been their worst.I would trade Lackey off-season, if I could.

Start Doubront next year. Dice-K has actually been pretty good lately. Surprise.Wake is done. Cut the cord. Lester and Buchholz are the aces now.

 

Another trade possibility is Ellsbury. Boras, again. Kalish is ready to take over CF.Maybe Ellsbury for Werth or another power hitting outfielder. Maybe Kalish and Ellsbury in the same OF?

 

Big changes coming next year. Lowrie, Kalish, Doubront and Bowden figure to be part of the team. That SS kid will eventually get to Fenway next year the way he is playing.

[SoxSport]

Okay, I'm a fair person and someone who does not say these things lightly.

 

I think Beltre and Ortiz are juicing. There. I said it.

 

 

Heck, they're all juicing. Probably. There are holes in the testing you can drive a truck through. When somebody is caught, it's for taking aspirin or it's a screw-up.The HGH market is wide open.

 

There is corruption wherever there is big money. Accept it.

[flasoxfan]

Beltre will parlay this year into a big contract....but not here! Sox will be careful after shelling out big money to Beckett...they are probably a year away from an infield of Rizzo, Padrioa, Igleseis and Youk..Catcher will be a problem next year but Martinez will be gone also!

[Dojji]

I disagree that Martinez will be gone. I overestimated his age when I said what I said on page 1. I think a 3-4 year deal is justifiable and I think the Sox can get a discount.

[Will617]

It seems like, barring any ridiculous offers, Beltre will probably get an offer of 3 years at about $12-15 million a year. Originally, I didn't think that keeping Beltre would be a smart move for the Sox, but now I'm reconsidering that.

The primary concerns are that 1. Beltre performs much better in a contract year, 2. that the numbers he has this year are unsustainable, and 3. that a team will overpay for him.

1. I don't think that players perform any better in a contract year, IMO there are few people in baseball that would work a lot harder just because it was a contract year. Beltre had that monster year in 2004, but looking at his batted ball statistics, his LD, GB, and FB rates were all relatively similar to his career averages (19%, 41%, and 40% respectively; his averages are 19%, 42%, and 39%). So how did he hit 48 home runs? His HR/FB rate was 23.3%, which is just absurd. Basically, it doesn't seem like he performed any better, he just had a ridiculous amount of luck.

2. Beltre's power numbers are probably sustainable, but his average is probably not. His BABIP is .353, a lot higher than his career mark of .294; you could probably expect his BABIP to rise, given that he pulls to the Monster and will get more fly balls to go for homers in Fenway. I would imagine that his average would be at about the .290-.310 mark. His ISO is .233 this season, which is a touch above 06-08 numbers (which were about .200), but his HR/FB rate has been close to what he's done in past years (minus 2009, in which he was injured), meaning that his power has risen due to hitting stuff off the wall, and not a sudden rash of homers.

3. Will a team overpay for Beltre? I can't imagine many teams will, given the current economic situation and the reluctance to take on additional salary. Paying him $12M a year for three years doesn't seem unreasonable, although $15M is a bit high; but consider that the Mariners paid Beltre about $13M a year for 5 years. I doubt that the numbers will go much higher than $12M, and I think that Beltre would be worth that amount to the Sox given their need at the position.