Can we talk about Dice-k?

[Palodios]

Also Dice-k continues his streak, with yet another QS. 6 innings, 1 run-- hard to argue with that.

 

His ERA for the game is 1.50. His Whip for the game is 1.50. Hey, atleast he's entertaining.

[jacksonianmarch]

The announcers kinda bagged on him a bit with good reason. 5 walks vs this lineup is pretty bad and even though he was very effective, his lack of longevity is ultimately what cost the sox the game. With their pen in tatters, the sox need 7 innings almost nightly from their starters so they can hand leads directly to Bard for 1 inning and Paps for 1 inning. Anything short of that is a failed job

[Rdsxmbnt]

That's ridiculous, 6 IP and one ER is a very good start and should have been plenty to beat the Mariners.

[jacksonianmarch]

It should have been. Just relaying the content from the announcers on EEI and the current state of the sox club. If DiceK went 7 innings, then you're all happy tonight

[Station 13]

last three Dice-K starts they score: 3, 2, 2

 

pitiful.

[ericlin]

Lester

Buchholz

Daisuke

Lackey

Wakefield

[Will617]

I wonder what would happen if Dice-K just pitched from the stretch all game long.

 

But on Dice-K - his numbers do not look good, compared to his career numbers. Strikeouts are down, walks are still high, his FB/GB ratio has spiked, and he is benefitting from a ridiculously low HR/FB ratio (4.5%! His career HR/FB ratio is around 8%, and that includes the ridiculous 6% ratio he posted in 2008).

 

There are a few positive signs - he is getting a higher amount of swings on pitches outside the strike zone, and his strand rate is (ironically) below his career average. But going forward, it looks like he's essentially an 8 K/9, 5 BB/9, fly ball pitcher with an ERA north of 4.

[Palodios]

I wonder what would happen if Dice-K just pitched from the stretch all game long.

[/Quote]

 

I was wondering about that myself, but I think its more about his approach, that he will go after batters more when he's backed himself into a corner.

 

 

But on Dice-K - his numbers do not look good, compared to his career numbers. Strikeouts are down, walks are still high, his FB/GB ratio has spiked, and he is benefitting from a ridiculously low HR/FB ratio (4.5%! His career HR/FB ratio is around 8%, and that includes the ridiculous 6% ratio he posted in 2008).

 

There are a few positive signs - he is getting a higher amount of swings on pitches outside the strike zone, and his strand rate is (ironically) below his career average. But going forward, it looks like he's essentially an 8 K/9, 5 BB/9, fly ball pitcher with an ERA north of 4.

 

You need to give up talking advanced stats with Dice-k. They're completely, utterly irrelevant. Seriously, I know advanced stats are usually great indicators for how a player will perform in the future, but Dice-k is immune to them.

 

Yesterday he had the bases loaded after giving up that one run, and he looked like he was going to explode, but somehow he got through the game with a QS despite not having his best stuff.

[Will617]

If anything, advanced metrics are more relevant to Dice-K. He had a mediocre first season, had that incredible MVP-like season (propped up by a ridiculous BABIP and HR/FB ratio, as well as his career-high LOB mark), and then had a poor season last year (where he suffered from a high BABIP).

It seems to me that Dice-K will, in fact, defy sabermetrics and strand a high number of batters. But, I think, this will at best turn him from a 4.5 ERA pitcher to a 4.0 ERA pitcher. Until something changes with his approach, he won't be much more than a lucky fly ball pitcher that has a sexy K rate, marred by inefficiency. Maybe good enough for the #3 spot on some teams, but definitely not better than a healthy Beckett, a performing Lackey, and a developing Buchholz.

[Palodios]

His 2009 sucked because of his conditioning. That has nothing to do with sabermetrics-- at the end of the year he got back to his usual self when he was finally in shape.

[Will617]

Yeah, I forgot that part. I'm trying to forget a lot of things from last year's season.

[Yaz Sideburn]

here's his line for the season

 

3.96 era, 1.32 whip, 3.94 fip, 6+ innings per start

 

the biggest difference between this year and previous years is that he's keeping the ball in the park

[WhiskeyBreath]

He's actually done that every year.

[WhiskeyBreath]

Well, his first year was a good amount but rookie year in MLB can be forgiven a bit.

[Yaz Sideburn]

He's actually done that every year.

 

he gave up more than a home run every 9 innings in 2007 and 2009. this year, he's given up 0.6 home runs per 9, that's a pretty big difference

[Dojji]

here's his line for the season

 

3.96 era, 1.32 whip, 3.94 fip, 6+ innings per start

 

the biggest difference between this year and previous years is that he's keeping the ball in the park

 

No -- the big difference between this year and the previous year is that Matsuzaka's stuff is significantly better -- he went from being shelled to being a guy who's hard to square up properly again, like he was in 2008.

 

I still think that the lion's share of Daisuke's problems trace back to the shoulder injury he's been documentably struggling with since late 2007. For his entire time here, as Daisuke's shoulder goes, so goes Daisuke. He took that time off earlier this season, rested and rehabbed it and as a result he's got his fastball back and he's able to set up his offspeed pitches this year. I think that's the clincher in an argument beyond a reasonable doubt.

 

If, and I can't stress how big an if this is, but if Daisuke commits to fully following the shoulder strengthening regimen prescribed by the Sox, the one that's kept the shoulders of every pitcher but Daisuke healthy for the entire time he's been here, the one he did everything short of declare war on Boston to avoid following last offseason, if he follows that regimen and gets his shoulder healthy, I predict a very good year next year

[WhiskeyBreath]

He had like 10 starts last year. Lost season.

[Palodios]

The problems between Dice-k, and this organization's training problems probably aren't going to end. I think its going to continue to be an issue for the next two years. But the fact of the matter is that he has incredible stuff. He showed that in 2008, the end of 2009, and this year too. Considering that he didn't really have a season last year, I think his adjustment period was reasonable, and after that, he's been pitching around a 3.00 ERA since.

 

And fortunately for this team, the next WBC is in 2013.

[Spudboy]

So much for the 3.0 ERA.

 

Over his last seven starts, Dice has allowed 4 or more runs in each game, has a 6.91 ERA, and is 1-3.

 

How many excuses and opportunities will this lump be afforded before everyone concludes he is not only the pitcher that we expected, and he is not what the Sox need.

 

Anyway you look at it, this guy is FAIL. The Sox should look to move him to an Asian market friendly west coast team and try to get something of use in return.

 

I'd rather see Doubront and Wakefield as the 5th starter next year.

[a700hitter]

So much for the 3.0 ERA.

 

Over his last seven starts, Dice has allowed 4 or more runs in each game, has a 6.91 ERA, and is 1-3.

 

How many excuses and opportunities will this lump be afforded before everyone concludes he is not only the pitcher that we expected, and he is not what the Sox need.

 

Anyway you look at it, this guy is FAIL. The Sox should look to move him to an Asian market friendly west coast team and try to get something of use in return.

 

I'd rather see Doubront and Wakefield as the 5th starter next year.

A colossal wast of money. He is one of the biggest bust acquisitions in team history. They spent superstar money to get an erratic number 5 starter with training and health issues. I'd rather have kept Bronson Arroyo.

[Palodios]

Anyway you look at it, this guy is FAIL. The Sox should look to move him to an Asian market friendly west coast team and try to get something of use in return.

 

Like it or not, he's worth more on this team than would be paid to pitch for another team, plus the no-trade clause doesn't help things any. When he's healthy he dominates, but unfortunately he's had a lot of health issues since his incredible 2008.

 

There are definitely serious issues in the pitching/training programs on this team, because we've seen a lot of elite pitchers completely bust here over the last few years, and its about time we stop blaming individual players and start looking at faults in the organization. Just look at the list of pitchers on the roster over the last two years, and consider how few of them actually performed well.

[Station 13]

A colossal wast of money. He is one of the biggest bust acquisitions in team history. They spent superstar money to get an erratic number 5 starter with training and health issues. I'd rather have kept Bronson Arroyo.

 

A bust would be getting absolutely nothing. He's nearing 50 wins. Not a total bust. But far from what was expected.

 

Lugo was a bust. Got absolutely nothing from him.

[a700hitter]

A bust would be getting absolutely nothing. He's nearing 50 wins. Not a total bust. But far from what was expected.

 

Lugo was a bust. Got absolutely nothing from him.

We spent more than 250% more on Dice K than on Lugo. We got 1 year of a full time shortstop on a championship team from Lugo. We got 2 years of #4, #5 starter performance from Dice K. He's a colossal bust, which is not a complete bust. That is different. A huge or colossal bust is not a complete bust, but that's my terminology and it is admittedly confusing to those who don't know me.

[Station 13]

We spent more than 250% more on Dice K than on Lugo. We got 1 year of a full time shortstop on a championship team from Lugo. We got 2 years of #4' date=' #5 starter performance from Dice K. He's a colossal bust, which is not a complete bust. That is different. A huge or colossal bust is not a complete bust, but that's my terminology and it is admittedly confusing to those who don't know me.[/quote']

 

 

 

Lugo was worth 0.4 WAR in 2007, so his impact on the championship is minimal. Dice-K was worth 3.9 WAR in 2007 and plays a significant run that year. Lugo was replacement level having a $40 million contract. This team would still won regardless if Lugo was there or not.

 

Lugo gave the Sox 1.2 WAR in his tenure here and they're paying him still to play elsewhere. He's a bigger waste in recent year, not Dice-K. IMO.

 

Dice-K has given them 9.9 WAR.and could finished up his contract with 70 wins and 15WAR. That to me isn't a bust.

 

I don't care if you label him as 4-5 starter.

[a700hitter]

Lugo was worth 0.4 WAR in 2007, so his impact on the championship is minimal. Dice-K was worth 3.9 WAR in 2007 and plays a significant run that year. Lugo was replacement level having a $40 million contract. This team would still won regardless if Lugo was there or not.

 

Lugo gave the Sox 1.2 WAR in his tenure here and they're paying him still to play elsewhere. He's a bigger waste in recent year, not Dice-K. IMO.

 

Dice-K has given them 9.9 WAR.and could finished up his contract with 70 wins and 15WAR.

 

I don't care if you label him as 4-5 starter.

The return he is giving for $102 million sucks. We got a lemon. I thought he would have a big comeback season in 2010. He did not. I think he has nowhere to go but down from here. We got 2 decent #4, #5 seasons from a guy that cost $102 million. IMO, that stinks. It goes into bust territory.

[Palodios]

We got 2 years of #4' date=' #5 starter performance from Dice K. [/quote']

 

That's a bit of an exaggeration. In 2007, he was a #3 quality pitcher while adjusting to real competition. In 2008, he came in 4th for Cy Young--3rd among starters-- so I think its fair to say he would be a #1 in one of the 14 AL teams. This year, he's been the team's #3/4 pitcher, despite missing almost all of 2009, and three injuries.

 

There have been road blocks, team conflicts, training issues, injuries, but he's far better than people give him credit for.

[a700hitter]

That's a bit of an exaggeration. In 2007, he was a #3 quality pitcher while adjusting to real competition. In 2008, he came in 4th for Cy Young--3rd among starters-- so I think its fair to say he would be a #1 in one of the 14 AL teams. This year, he's been the team's #3/4 pitcher, despite missing almost all of 2009, and three injuries.

 

There have been road blocks, team conflicts, training issues, injuries, but he's far better than people give him credit for.

In his best season, he set a record for the fewest innings by a pitcher with 18 wins. That was his high point, and I would sign on for two more years of that in a heart beat, and that would be far from being a bust. However, that season was his one high spot. It's been downhill since then, and I don't think he is going to return to that form. He has been an inconsistent performer with injury issues. Like I said in an earlier post, I thought 2010 would be a big year for him. I felt that he was at a crossroads and that he would emerge as a top pitcher. He did not. I have no reason to think that he will come up big in his final two seasons. In fact, I expect his performance will continue to deteriorate. If his last two years are more of the same performance as 2010 or worse, I think his signing would have to be viewed as a mistake.

[Palodios]

Even I'm not arguing that Dice-k has been worth his contract. But because of his injuries, he really hasn't gotten a chance to prove himself. 2007 was an adjustment for him, 2009 he was a little bitch, 2010 he was coming off of a missed season, plus three injuries. 2008 was the only season he really was in full form, and I think he did admirably, despite his inning count.

[Yaz Sideburn]

to answer the thread title, i'd rather not

[Station 13]

Even I'm not arguing that Dice-k has been worth his contract. But because of his injuries' date=' he really hasn't gotten a chance to prove himself. 2007 was an adjustment for him, 2009 he was a little bitch, 2010 he was coming off of a missed season, plus three injuries. 2008 was the only season he really was in full form, and I think he did admirably, despite his inning count.[/quote']

 

I don't like Dice-K but you are right, can't write off nearly 50 wins he has with the team and could finished out his contract around 70 win.