Beltre's Suspect Defense

[TheMino007]

Coming into this year, he was being packaged as a defensive wizard, a guy with great range and a cannon arm. Not to knock him, he played great defense in the past, but this year he has not been as advertised. The team has a whole, has not played defense first baseball, I believe we have the 2nd most errors in baseball. Surprisingly the team has no problem hitting home runs, the Red Sox score over half their runs via the long ball. Anyway, Beltre has 7 errors, and there have been another handful of balls he could have misplayed, like today, which could have been errors. It just doesn't seem like he gets himself in the right position, he doesn't get his body in front of the ball to at least knock it down. His arm has been inaccurate and wild. I would hope Lowell would get some starts at 3B. His range is limited and not nearly as good as Beltre's, but he fields all the balls that are hit to him and he doesn't throw the ball away. If Beltre wasn't hitting well right now, more people would be calling for this. But, Lowell and Beltre are a wash offensively, so your not losing anything by playing Lowell.

[Lester82]

You're losing mobility by playing Lowell.

 

But no argument that Beltre has been less solid than advertised at times on defense. The man that many consider near the best of the game's third basemen. The man that Joe Maddon said he regarded as the best defensive third basemen he's ever seen.

 

But hey, what does Joe Maddon care. He's got Evan Longoria and perhaps the best team in baseball.

[TheMino007]

You lose mobility, but you gain a guy who can actually handle a ball that is hit to him and who can throw accurately.

[Rdsxmbnt]

GIAZ, Beltre has an 11.4 UZR/150 this year. You need to stop "watching the games"

[TheMino007]

UZR/150 is a meaningless stats, all defensive sabermetrics are.

[Emmz]

God, you just never let up on Beltre. You don't lose your glove overnight unless its a physical problem, and that's not the case. Stop trying to make every issue you possibly can about Beltre. He's been pretty awesome thus far.

[Emmz]

UZR/150 is a meaningless stats' date=' all defensive sabermetrics are.[/quote']

 

LOL

 

You probably don't even know how it works yet you question its integrity.

[example1]

We got this guy understanding that he was unlikely to contribute much offensively and be great defensively. I agree that his defense has not been as advertised because he's made a few key misplays, but he's made some good plays defensively too which are all too easily forgotten. You can dislike defensive metrics, but none of them are saying he's been great, merely that he's been okay. That seems about right to me.

 

Whatever the case with his defense he's got a 0.9 WAR (fangraphs) and a 1.0 WARP (BP). Fangraphs has him as the 8th most valuable 3B in baseball so far in 2010, ahead of players like Pablo Sandoval, Miguel Tejada, Placido Polanco, A-Rod, Casey Blake, Chipper Jones, Michael Young and Aramis Ramirez. By the same measure he's been the 3rd most valueable non-pitcher on the Sox in 2010.

 

The team has been pretty bad, but I don't think Beltre deserves a lot of the blame. I expect his defense will improve and his offense will diminish; in the end he'll the player most thought he would be.

[TheMino007]

LOL

 

You probably don't even know how it works yet you question its integrity.

 

when the formula for UZR changes and suddenly makes Jason Bay go from a terrible defender to a mediocre defender, you question what the hell is going and why people should use it as a tool if it just keeps changing

[Emmz]

when the formula for UZR changes and suddenly makes Jason Bay go from a terrible defender to a mediocre defender' date=' you question what the hell is going and why people should use it as a tool if it just keeps changing[/quote']

You just admitted you don't know how it works. You should research it, and until then its hard for anyone to take your argument seriously.

[TheMino007]

I know what it is, I know how it works.

[example1]

I know what it is' date=' I know how it works.[/quote']

 

Do you think it is possible to accurately measure defensive contribution? How would you go about doing it?

[Jasonbay44]

Beltre has made errors on some balls that Lowell doesn't even get too. Most of his errors have been poor judgment. For example, today when the runner took off for 2nd, he fielded a ground ball and still tried throwing the runner out at 2nd. Beltre is a much better fielder then he has shown, Lowell looks like he is disabled sometimes when he is trying to field and is not an upgrade defensively.

 

Also, UZR is not a meaningless stat., you just need to understand it.

[Keeper]

You just admitted you don't know how it works. You should research it' date=' and until then its hard for anyone to take your argument seriously.[/quote']

 

Ever the echo of Dipre... For the record, I take his argument seriously. He's seen Beltre in action a lot more than you have.

 

I also don't think UZR is the be-all and end-all defensive stat. If you want to look at a stat that could be telling, look at his range factor; it's way down from previous years. Will it normalize over the course of 162 games? We'll see.

 

He's a lot more mobile than Lowell, but that's not saying much. I don't think Beltre has been terrible at third, just not as he was advertised.

[Emmz]

Ever the echo of Dipre... For the record, I take his argument seriously. He's seen Beltre in action a lot more than you have.

 

I also don't think UZR is the be-all and end-all defensive stat. If you want to look at a stat that could be telling, look at his range factor; it's way down from previous years. Will it normalize over the course of 162 games? We'll see.

 

He's a lot more mobile than Lowell, but that's not saying much. I don't think Beltre has been terrible at third, just not as he was advertised.

 

God, I post in baseball discussion once in a long time and I'm the echo of Dipre. Let your sack drop and argue with logic instead of bashing me. You really need to knock it off. I've told you this several times, you are harassing me. Grow up and act like you're in your mid-20s instead of mid-teens.

 

I said that if you don't know what it is you can't argue really that its useless. Stop trying to blow this up. The game-watching thing is so stupid. Anyways, this is why I don't talk baseball because of you. You're the only person who won't stop calling me Dipres echo, even when several other well respected members have said the same thing. I don't see you calling ORS "dipres echo". Or even calling me ORS' echo. Just shut up already, and argue logically instead of attacking me.

[Keeper]

Massive overreaction.

[Dipre]

Beltre has made errors on some balls that Lowell doesn't even get too. Most of his errors have been poor judgment. For example, today when the runner took off for 2nd, he fielded a ground ball and still tried throwing the runner out at 2nd. Beltre is a much better fielder then he has shown, Lowell looks like he is disabled sometimes when he is trying to field and is not an upgrade defensively.

 

Also, UZR is not a meaningless stat., you just need to understand it.

 

I want to marry this post.

 

And Keeper, the sentiment stated by Emmz has also been stated by several other members. I like you and all, but you're being a douchebag. She barely posts anymore, so leave her alone.

[Emmz]

Massive overreaction.

 

No, I'm tired of being bullied by the same person whenever I enter baseball discussion. You like picking on girls or what?

 

I barely even post here anymore but I'm still incapable of having my own ideas.

[Keeper]

wtf get over yourselves.

[Dipre]

wtf get over yourselves.

 

Again, i'm not trying to insult you, but the comment was unnecessary, and the reaction understandable. I'm not entering a pissing contest over this, but you had no reason to make the comment and start the shitstorm.

 

Last thing i'll say about it.

[Emmz]

wtf get over yourselves.

 

I'll stop when you stop jumping me every time I talk about baseball. Its insulting when you supposedly are incapable of having your own baseball opinion. You need to knock it off, there is no yourselves. I am one person with her own voice. Stop trying to stir s*** up, or at least you could man up and admit it.

 

I'm sorry to the mods about this, I lost it but I'm just sick of being bullied by this guy. I can't even talk baseball anymore, so i'll just go back to general discussion.

[rhet]

Beltre has made errors on some balls that Lowell doesn't even get too. Most of his errors have been poor judgment. For example, today when the runner took off for 2nd, he fielded a ground ball and still tried throwing the runner out at 2nd. Beltre is a much better fielder then he has shown, Lowell looks like he is disabled sometimes when he is trying to field and is not an upgrade defensively.

 

Also, UZR is not a meaningless stat., you just need to understand it.

 

Most of Beltre's errors and non-called errors have been on routine plays.

 

And UZR doesn't work as a reliable stat.

[Dipre]

Most of Beltre's errors and non-called errors have been on routine plays.

 

And UZR doesn't work as a reliable stat.

 

Shouldn't you be watching the game on t.v so you can give us a reliable scouting report?

 

Also, can you explain to me how UZR works and why it doesn't work? If you can, i'll believe you.

[rhet]

Shouldn't you be watching the game on t.v so you can give us a reliable scouting report?

 

Also, can you explain to me how UZR works and why it doesn't work? If you can, i'll believe you.

 

What are you watching it on? Do they have t.v's down there?

[Dipre]

What are you watching it on? Do they have t.v's down there?

 

No, i'm watching on a trash can, but that doesn't answer my question, which you're dodging with an extremely douchebag comment which makes me quesiton your actual knowledge of the topic at hand. I'll be waiting.

[rhet]

No' date=' i'm watching on a trash can, but that doesn't answer my question, which you're dodging with an extremely douchebag comment which makes me quesiton your actual knowledge of the topic at hand. I'll be waiting.[/quote']

 

What question? You don't know how UZR works? Then why the f*** are you defending it?

[Dipre]

What question? You don't know how UZR works? Then why the f*** are you defending it?

 

Don't play stupid. I know perfectly well how UZR works. I'm questioning if you know how it works, and given your advanced attempts at dodging the question, i'm assuming you have no idea, which is quite humorous. Please answer the question.

[rhet]

Don't play stupid. I know perfectly well how UZR works. I'm questioning if you know how it works' date=' and given your advanced attempts at dodging the question, i'm assuming you have no idea, which is quite humorous. Please answer the question.[/quote']

 

No you don't.

[Dipre]

No you don't.

 

I've already explained, together with ORS, the way UZR works on-site. I'm not going to explain it to you. I've also explained the reason why it's innacurate in the cases of SS and 1B, so your attempts of deflecting the question are ill-advised. Everyone here knows i understand how it works, do you?

 

I'll make it simpler: Why is it innefective, in your opinion, in the case of 3B?

[Jasonbay44]

Most of Beltre's errors and non-called errors have been on routine plays.

 

And UZR doesn't work as a reliable stat.

Obviously every player makes errors, but numerous of them have been Beltre just making stupid mistakes once he gets the ball. Anyway, my point is: Beltre is going to make more errors then most third basemen due the fact that he gets to more balls then most 3rd basemen. Lowell is not an upgrade defensively, if you want Beltre gone at least say for a good defensive 3rd basemen. (Note not directed at anyone particular with that comment but I have seen numerous people begging for Lowell to start over Beltre).

 

Since you watch the games, you honestly cant see how much more range Beltre has then Lowell? Wether you believe UZR is a reliable stat or not, you can tell just by watching the games that Beltre's range is 10x better then Lowell. Beltre is the better defender and it will show as the season progresses. Lowell has no hope of getting better defensively because he is old and never really was very mobile, those hip surgeries have killed his mobility, therefore limiting his range.

 

If UZR is not a reliable stat, then why is Fielding%? Fielding% can be even more misleading then UZR. According to fielding%, Mike Lowell is best fielding third basemen of all time. You know why? It doesn't factor in range. Just in the past few years Lowell has look absolutely terrible defensively, while Beltre has looked fantastic, but you cant tell that by fielding%. However, with UZR you can.

 

UZR is a reliable stat, you just don't understand it.