Theo's Forecast...

[JimEdHOF2009]

we should have listened to him instead of hoping Beltre and Papi reverted back to their steroid enhanced slugging...

 

“We talked about this a lot at the end of the year, that we’re kind of in a bridge period,’’ he said. “We still think that if we push some of the right buttons, we can be competitive at the very highest levels for the next two years. But we don’t want to compromise too much of the future for that competitiveness during the bridge period, but we all don’t want to sacrifice our competitiveness during the bridge just for the future. So we’re just trying to balance both those issues.’’

 

Theo Epstein

 

 

Translation..."The Yankees and Rays are going to kick the s*** out of us for the next year or two...We will try to bring in some pieces that may or may not work out...but if not, oh well...Fenway still sells out and we still have Casey Kelley in the minors. For those of you thinking I am going to gut our system for a chance to win in the next 2 years...hang on 1 second(hearty belly laugh that lasts 5 minutes)"

[jacksonianmarch]

That's the interesting thing. He goes out and says that the team is in a bridge period, then signs a starter with injury questions for 5 yrs during the bridge? That makes no sense.

[JimEdHOF2009]

That's the interesting thing. He goes out and says that the team is in a bridge period' date=' then signs a starter with injury questions for 5 yrs during the bridge? That makes no sense.[/quote']

 

Lackey never had MAJOR surgery like a cuff or TJ.. I believe signing Lackey was one of the BUTTONS he spoke of... that must have been the "cash" button. The trade button will not be pushed if his offseason buttons are not panning out.. He will not do anything major now that this season is imploding unless the Sox make a HUGE turnaround. I don't blame him. San Diego would be asking for Ellsbury, Bard, and Clay for Gonzo.. I would do it for Clay, Bard, and Lars ...but I am not sure Theo would if his "metrics" or common sense tells him we will still fall woefully short of Yankees and Rays.. Sucks to be conceding in May though.. early May at that.

[jacksonianmarch]

SD isnt dealing right now anyway. They are winning

[a700hitter]

A bridge to what? Their best prospect became a permanent casualty of surgery. Who are the stars from our system that will be manning positions on the big club in 2012. By 2012, more piece will need to be replace. Drew will be gone. So will Lowell and Beltre, so we'll need a third baseman to. We'll need a couple of outfielders and a SS and a catcher. The Sox system is ready to produce 5 stars to hold down positions in 2012? It sounds like a bride to nowhere. It also looks like the $160 million invested in the 2010 roster has a good chance of being a complete waste of resources, because if this team doesn't turn it around fast, they will be out of the race by the end of May and their fanbase will become disengaged. Since a "bridge year" is code for doing just enough to keep the sucker fans happy and engaged and spending their money without really trying to win a Championship (that would have required Bay or Holliday), their 2010-2011 plan might be an early complete bust. They might be forced to really try to compete in 2011

[rhet]

As we all know, there is a temptation in this town to exaggerate the skills of trade targets. While the Sox could use the thump of Adrian Gonzalez, he's not exactly Pujols or Howard or Ortiz (03-08). His career OPS sits at .872.

 

Not only would it take Buccholz and high prospects to get him, it would send a 1B gold glover to 3B and bench Beltre, another guy Theo and his minions are so high on.

[Keeper]

As we all know, there is a temptation in this town to exaggerate the skills of trade targets. While the Sox could use the thump of Adrian Gonzalez, he's not exactly Pujols or Howard or Ortiz (03-08). His career OPS sits at .872.

 

Not only would it take Buccholz and high prospects to get him, it would send a 1B gold glover to 3B and bench Beltre, another guy Theo and his minions are so high on.

 

Gonzalez is better than Howard right now, IMO. And more valuable than Ortiz was since he can actually field - and field well.

 

They're not that high on Beltre. If they had really been so high on him, don't you think they would have signed him to more than a one-year deal?

[ORS]

As we all know, there is a temptation in this town to exaggerate the skills of trade targets. While the Sox could use the thump of Adrian Gonzalez, he's not exactly Pujols or Howard or Ortiz (03-08). His career OPS sits at .872.

 

Not only would it take Buccholz and high prospects to get him, it would send a 1B gold glover to 3B and bench Beltre, another guy Theo and his minions are so high on.

I don't get any sense that anyone is "high" on Beltre relative to all baseball players. The appeal is relative to Mike Lowell and other candidates to play 3B in 2010. Context is important.

[JimEdHOF2009]

As we all know' date=' there is a temptation in this town to exaggerate the skills of trade targets. While the Sox could use the thump of Adrian Gonzalez, he's not exactly Pujols or Howard or Ortiz (03-08). [b']His career OPS sits at .872.[/b]

 

Not only would it take Buccholz and high prospects to get him, it would send a 1B gold glover to 3B and bench Beltre, another guy Theo and his minions are so high on.

 

 

Wow..this is a stupid post. Hey genius.. peep these numbers..

 

Adrian Gonzalez ROAD OPS:

 

2007 .928

2008 .946

2009 1.045

 

Though no Pujols...I would say he is better than Howard...he certainly was in 2009. I cannot believe a baseball fan, in this day and age would not take into account Park Factors. Petco is a HORRENDOUS hitters park..an EXTREME pitchers park.. You put Gonzo in Fenway...judging by his spray charts and propensity to go to left..you are looking at Manny-Like numbers...with good defense... He is worth every prospect the Sox would have to give up.

[rhet]

Wow..this is a stupid post. Hey genius.. peep these numbers..

 

Adrian Gonzalez ROAD OPS:

 

2007 .928

2008 .946

2009 1.045

 

Though no Pujols...I would say he is better than Howard...he certainly was in 2009. I cannot believe a baseball fan, in this day and age would not take into account Park Factors. Petco is a HORRENDOUS hitters park..an EXTREME pitchers park.. You put Gonzo in Fenway...judging by his spray charts and propensity to go to left..you are looking at Manny-Like numbers...with good defense... He is worth every prospect the Sox would have to give up.

 

Sorry, Ryan Howard is twice the hitter Gonzalez is. This road/home excuse is just a load of BS.

Ryan Howard loves to hit at Petco.

[das11209]

Sorry' date=' Ryan Howard is twice the hitter Gonzalez is. This road/home excuse is just a load of BS.[/quote']

 

I am not arguing with you on the split - but A Gon is a gold glove first baseman - and Howard should be AL DH. If they are the same hitter Gonzalez - is a much better overall player.

[jacksonianmarch]

Gonzalez is a GG caliber 1b as well. Moving Youk over to 3b actually INCREASES his value since he is an average defender but a plus offensive player from that position. And, Gonzo is a better offensive player at this point in his career than Youk is, so you upgrade offensively on 2 fronts and you keep the same defense (well since Beltre has been horrd at 3b thus far, Youk cant be any worse, right?).

 

The sox have enough chips in their minor leagues to make it happen without it affecting the big league squad all that much. Now that Buchholz has inserted himself into the rotation long term, Kelly isnt as integral. Put Kelly, Anderson, Reddick, and Kalish into the conversation and I am sure a team like SD would have to think about it. Granted, it would be in the offseason since SD looks pretty tough right now and might have enough chutzpah to keep it close by the ASB. Close enough to try and contend

[rhet]

I am not arguing with you on the split - but A Gon is a gold glove first baseman - and Howard should be AL DH. If they are the same hitter Gonzalez - is a much better overall player.

 

We already have a gold glove first baseman. And a gold glove third baseman. So Gonzales's defensive abilities are not exactly priority one around here.

 

My posts dealt solely with the Sox need for a slugger.

[rhet]

Gonzalez is better than Howard right now, IMO. And more valuable than Ortiz was since he can actually field - and field well.

 

They're not that high on Beltre. If they had really been so high on him, don't you think they would have signed him to more than a one-year deal?

 

Does anyone know the specifics of the Beltre deal? I thought it was two years... or one year plus a large player option (which is essentially two).

[yankees228]

Does anyone know the specifics of the Beltre deal? I thought it was two years... or one year plus a large player option (which is essentially two).

 

From Cots...

 

1 year/$10M (2010)

-signed by Boston as a free agent 1/5/10

-10:$9M, 11:$5M player option

-$1M buyout for 2011 option if Beltre has 575 PAs in 2010

-2011 option increases to $10M with 640 PAs in 2010

[jacksonianmarch]

He's well on his way to 640PA's. There is no way he turns down a 10 mil option in 2011

[TheKilo]

theo saw and still sees the writing on the wall for this season. his team is old and cannot compete with the more dynamic teams in his division.

 

too bad, too...this is going to be a long summer once the Celtics and Beuins are done.

[JimEdHOF2009]

theo saw and still sees the writing on the wall for this season. his team is old and cannot compete with the more dynamic teams in his division.

 

too bad, too...this is going to be a long summer once the Celtics and Beuins are done.

 

after watching the Celts meltdown the other night... I think you are correct.. I know the Sox are finished.

[Palodios]

He's well on his way to 640PA's. There is no way he turns down a 10 mil option in 2011

 

Two more games and we're at 1/6th of the way through the season. He's at 88 now-- do the math. With the options of Vmart and Lowell, they will keep him on the bench just enough to save 5 mill. Unless the team makes the playoffs AND he doesn't get DLed at all this season, he's making 5 million next year.

[rhet]

Two more games and we're at 1/6th of the way through the season. He's at 88 now-- do the math. With the options of Vmart and Lowell' date=' they will keep him on the bench just enough to save 5 mill. Unless the team makes the playoffs AND he doesn't get DLed at all this season, he's making 5 million next year.[/quote']

 

Boras schooled Theo. Again.

[jacksonianmarch]

Two more games and we're at 1/6th of the way through the season. He's at 88 now-- do the math. With the options of Vmart and Lowell' date=' they will keep him on the bench just enough to save 5 mill. Unless the team makes the playoffs AND he doesn't get DLed at all this season, he's making 5 million next year.[/quote']

 

He's actually at 94. It is plate appearances, not at bats. He is on pace for 609 plate appearances, and that is with Boston having a lineup full of slumping players and scrubs. Once the O picks up, so will his PAs

[Palodios]

He's actually at 94. It is plate appearances' date=' not at bats. He is on pace for 609 plate appearances, and that is with Boston having a lineup full of slumping players and scrubs. Once the O picks up, so will his PAs[/quote']

 

Ah, my bad. But considering right now, they actually are 5th in the AL for OBP, I don't see him reaching those numbers even if the offense does pick up. If they let him have that many plate appearances its because he'll be worth the money, but otherwise having 4 guys who can play 3rd really will make a difference, and that's not including Lowrie.

[JimEdHOF2009]

Brewers struggling..their pitching is absolutely terrible other than Gallardo and Wolf(who is a bit long in the tooth).. Fielder has been rumored to be the guy they would trade to improve the team..probably because he is fat and can barely field his position... He would play DH for the Sox. I would think a package of Kelley, Bard, and Lars Anderson would be of great interest to the Brew Crew.

 

Fielder would give our lineup instant credibility. He is the type of impact hitter who makes everyone better and he can hit the ball a long way to the opposite field. He is the guy we have the best shot at IMO.

 

As for Ortiz...cut him and have an Ortiz Day next year... I am sure he would welcome the chance to start for another team if there is one that would give him a chance.

[Dipre]

Adrian Gonzales is a much better player than Howard right now. Saying that park factors is BS because Howard has had moderate succes over a SSS is borderline retarded.

[JimEdHOF2009]

Adrian Gonzales is a much better player than Howard right now. Saying that park factors is BS because Howard has had moderate succes over a SSS is borderline retarded.

 

bingo!

[Chamomile]

That's the interesting thing. He goes out and says that the team is in a bridge period' date=' then signs a starter with injury questions for 5 yrs during the bridge? That makes no sense.[/quote']

 

Since when did Lackey become injury prone? He's been incredibly durable for most of his career.

[jacksonianmarch]

He started the season on the DL 2 seasons in a row.

[Chamomile]

He started the season on the DL 2 seasons in a row.

 

Seems like a fluke considering the rest of his career. He looks fine this year :dunno:

[jacksonianmarch]

Yes he does. The thing is, though, at the time the injury was a concern especially since it involved the elbow. The sox did protect themselves well, though. If that elbow lets go, they get a free season out of him

[rhet]

Adrian Gonzales is a much better player than Howard right now. Saying that park factors is BS because Howard has had moderate succes over a SSS is borderline retarded.

 

A better fielder of course.

 

But I was specifically commenting on their hitting. Howard is a much better hitter than Adrian Gonzalez.