CLAY will be our ACE by years and as long as he continues to...

[Yaz Sideburn]

Okay' date=' he's barely above league average. Regardless, his peripherals are not as good as Lester's were last yr and his BABIP is way down. This likely means he isnt as good as his ERA suggests, which I dont think many people would doubt.[/quote']

 

he's in the top 10 in the american league. how is that barely above league average?

 

babip is basically what your era should be based on your strikeouts, who cares what it says about buchholz?

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

No matter how much you explain to Jacko he still won't listen. Your wasting your time.

[jacksonianmarch]

You're essentially fighting against yourself here.

 

1. Based on GO/AO, he is below average. Based on ORS's numbers, he's barely above average. Regardless, if you dont consider him a major groundball pitcher, then his BABIP is pretty relevant.

 

2. If he is a major groundball pitcher, THEN, you would expect his BAA to be much higher since a groundball has a better chance of being a hit than a flyball.

 

Regardless, they all point to two things...

 

1. Buchholz has been incredibly lucky

 

2. Lester's peripherals are essentially the same when you look at WHIP and since Buch has been incredibly lucky this yr, then you have to take Lester's numbers.

 

Regardless, we're arguing semantics right now. I think Lester is a better pitcher and his season from last yr was fantastic. I would take a guy with a 1.20 WHIP, 200IP and 225K over a guy who isnt going to reach 200IP, is a contact pitcher, and is lucky

[Yaz Sideburn]

No matter how much you explain to Jacko he still won't listen. Your wasting your time.

 

you called that one. anyone who's actually watched buchholz pitch this year can tell that he hasn't been incredibly lucky, he's been dominant. i don't care what the yankees fanboy thinks

[jacksonianmarch]

I've watched almost all of his starts. It isnt about "dominance", it's about numbers.

[Yaz Sideburn]

I've watched almost all of his starts. It isnt about "dominance"' date=' it's about numbers.[/quote']

 

so on days when buchholz pitches you watch the red sox instead of the yankees? whatever you say...

[example1]

I don't doubt that jacko watches the Sox games. I also don't think he's wrong about Buchholz not being dominant. He's been very good and is showing all the signs of being a potentially dominant starter for many years to come. He's not getting the K's or innings he needs to be considered among the games elite, but that wasn't the plan for 2010. It is great that he's been a more-than-effective starter, but nobody was expecting him to be a Cy Young winner. That may be for the next few years.

[jacksonianmarch]

I don't doubt that jacko watches the Sox games. I also don't think he's wrong about Buchholz not being dominant. He's been very good and is showing all the signs of being a potentially dominant starter for many years to come. He's not getting the K's or innings he needs to be considered among the games elite' date=' but that wasn't the plan for 2010. It is great that he's been a more-than-effective starter, but nobody was expecting him to be a Cy Young winner. That may be for the next few years.[/quote']

 

Levity.

 

I said that Buchholz' ceiling is what Lester did last yr. A true, ace performance. IE, I think Buch can be an ace. Somehow it is being taken as a slight

[Yaz Sideburn]

I said that Buchholz' ceiling is what Lester did last yr. A true' date=' ace performance. IE, I think Buch can be an ace. Somehow it is being taken as a slight[/quote']

 

buchholz has pitched better this year than lester ever has. i don't care what the sabermetrics say, not every pitcher fits that cookie cutter mold. if you believe sabermetrics, then javier vazquez has been a dominant pitcher in the american league most of his career

[jacksonianmarch]

You know, I said the same thing a few yrs back. I have found that a few players outperform their sabermetric projections, but most of the time, a player who outperforms it one yr regresses the next. I am telling you that I think Buchholz will be better than he has been this yr in the future. Maybe not ERA, but definitely K/9IP and BB/9IP

[Yaz Sideburn]

You know' date=' I said the same thing a few yrs back. I have found that a few players outperform their sabermetric projections, but most of the time, a player who outperforms it one yr regresses the next. I am telling you that I think Buchholz will be better than he has been this yr in the future. Maybe not ERA, but definitely K/9IP and BB/9IP[/quote']

 

even you acknowledge that sabermetrics clearly don't work for every pitcher. they suggest that javier vazquez is really an ace even though he always gets lit up in the american league and they always suggest that roy halladay isn't as good as he actually is because his low k rates and high ground ball rates don't fit the strikeout formula that babip, fip and all those other stats are based on

[jacksonianmarch]

It doesnt fit every player. But most guys who break that mold either have quite a track record (like Halladay) or have some gimmick, a la Chien Ming Wang a few yrs back and the power sinker. I know Buch has a good 2 seamer, but he isnt a true sinkerballer as he is more of a complete pitcher and he isnt anywhere near what I would consider an extreme GB pitcher (see Masterson). What I am saying is that he hasnt been as good as his ERA suggests this yr. But I expect that over the next 3 yrs, his K/9IP will creep above 8 and his BB/9IP will slip below 3, making him a better pitcher overall.

[RWTP24]

GROW in confidence. This is the only thing preventing him from being our ace IMO. No disrespect to Lester..or Beckett.. but Clay's arsenal is more diverse than even theirs. His 12 to 6 curve is a plus pitch. His fastball has been getting clocked at 97...so he is throwing as hard or harder than either pitcher... His changeup is Hoffman-esque....and he now has a nasty little cutter (87-89 MPH)... He has been burying that cutter in on lefties and throwing it high and in to righties who swing early thinking it is his curve...

 

The one problem Clay has is confidence. I noticed him looking over at the dugout after the Beltre error...wondering if Tito was going to pull him. He kept looking into the dugout..and Tito was just standing there... In the post-game press conference Clay admitted to looking over and not wanting Tito to come out and yank him. The guy was absolutely terrific and worked around Beltre's gaffe. I told my father last year..a game vs. the Yankees where he constantly worked out of trouble created by his infielders and held the Yankees to 2 over 6 IP that he has changed.. he has become the pitcher we all thought he could be..and it is really fun to watch him grow with each outing. mark it down..you are watching a future All-Star.

 

That is funny; I said this a month ago and get my ass ripped for it.

 

As of right now, Clay is the Red Sox best pitcher.

 

I also said it was a dumb decision to give Beckett a extension so fast. Right now I am looking pretty right about that. I really hope Beckett can turn it around and quick.

[Keeper]

I would still take Lester over Buchholz. Just like I would still take Brett Anderson over Trevor Cahill on Oakland's staff. Buchholz and Cahill are good, but not as good as their ERAs would suggest.

[RWTP24]

I would still take Lester over Buchholz. Just like I would still take Brett Anderson over Trevor Cahill on Oakland's staff. Buchholz and Cahill are good' date=' but not as good as their ERAs would suggest.[/quote']

 

What?

 

What do you mean by this? Buchholz ERA is a lie?

[Keeper]

What?

 

What do you mean by this? Buchholz ERA is a lie?

 

Peripherals.

[jacksonianmarch]

What?

 

What do you mean by this? Buchholz ERA is a lie?

 

I think he's been lucky to be as low as he has it. See his BABIP

[Dipre]

Clay Bucholz has clearly outpitched his peripherals. There's no way around that. They're transitioning him with exactly the same approach they transitioned Lester a couple years ago "Pitch to contact, the Strikeout pitch will take care of itself".

 

Bucholz has not pitched to the tune of a 2.20 ERA (quite frankly, no one in the AL is a 2.20 ERA pitcher) but this aberration of a season has clearly helped a number of pitchers attain some completely out-of-line numbers, and Bucholz is one of them. In fact, his peripherals show him to be much more of Mid-three's pitcher, but when you factor in BABIP, he may be even a bit higher than that.

 

He hasn't been absolutely dominant, but he hasn't shown his best stuff yet either, he'll have better peripherals next year, but that ERA will very much regress. Count on it.

 

Also, it's funny how the one time Jacko has an argument that is unbiased, logically sound, statistically solid, and is actually full of praise for a Sox player, people jump on his throat and none of the people who usually defend him really do.

 

Irony.