White Sox in on Gonzalez.

[BSN07]

If I do' date=' Dipre will go Angry Latino on me again.[/quote']

 

 

I really don't get the Beltre hate at all either though. He should at least be league average at 3B. Is that such a horrible atrocity?

[MDF3530]

So you are telling me that offensively' date=' Beckham is set to be worth more than AdGon?[/quote']As a long term investment, yes. He's going to real cheap for the next 5-6 years.

[example1]

What happens if Ortiz hits 35 HRs' date=' 115 RBI with .900+ OPS?[/quote']

 

They will exercise his 2011 option and have a middle of the order bat named David Ortiz, IMO. Then they will take the draft picks.

 

In other news, I'm sick of all this Carlos Pena talk. It is overthinking the problem. He's a dangerous hitter, but he's 31 and his numbers are skewed by one season with a 1.000+ OPS. In fact, despite a good OBP he's had an OPS over .900 once. It's not that he's a bad player (he's not) it's just that he's not the middle of the order bat they need. The grass is always greener and Carlos Pena is that grass at this point. He's a good play B, but not a plan A.

 

I will take the 26 year old Fielder over the 31 year old Pena. I realize that Fielder probably isn't the best 1B option, but he's played in the NL in 157, 158, 159 and 162 G the past 4 seasons progressively.

 

Finally, although Fielder would cost a lot to acquire I don't think he would cost anything near what Teixeira cost the Yankees $$-wise. The Yankees shouldn't be in the bidding.

 

 

All things being equal, I think the Sox would prefer Adrian Gonzalez because of his glove. However, Fielder is a masher, he's young enough to build around, and he would allow them to move away from the myopic view so many have re: Adrian Gonzalez.

[jacksonianmarch]

Example and everyone else....

 

THEY ARE NOT OFFERING ARBITRATION TO DAVID ORTIZ!!!

 

It isnt happening. Why the hell would the sox commit to at least $13 million in 1 season when they could easily resign him for something in the $6-$8 million range. Lets put it this way, if the sox wanted Ortiz to return, they'd work something out. It's pretty obvious that Ortiz wants to stay in Boston and would probably accept any arbitration offer.

 

Case in point, Hideki Matsui. Came off one injury filled season and has had 2 solid yrs in the last 3. He's relegated to only DH duty by injury and he significantly outplayed Ortiz in 2009. He got $6 million from the Halos. Do you really think that Ortiz is worth more than double that?

 

Here's the deal, the sox are going to buyout Ortiz after the season no matter what and if they liked what they saw, they might negotiate a 2yr $15mil deal or so to keep the big man around, or maybe one of their famous 1yr deals with separate team and player options like they did with Varitek. It makes absolutely no fiscal sense to pick up a $12 million option for a player whose market worth is half that

[Dojji]

his numbers are skewed by one season with a 1.000+ OPS. In fact' date=' despite a good OBP he's had an OPS over .900 [i']once[/i].

 

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/G/Adrian-Gonzalez.shtml

[jacksonianmarch]

He was talking about Pena

[Dojji]

Yeah, but the fact remains that you could say exactly the same thing about Adrian Gonzalez.

[jacksonianmarch]

Agree completely. The big difference is that Adgon had his big yr last season while Pena's was a few seasons ago

[Dojji]

Fact remains though, that Pena costs just money.

 

Adgon won't. Fielder won't.

 

Both Pena and Dunn are cost-effective ways to add 30-40 or so HR's to your lineup without killing your other offensive numbers or draining your talent pool. I don't care if you hit them seventh, they'll be big helps to your lineup.

 

And if you really want to spend the money on an elite producer at 1B (assuming Pena somehow isn't one, but nevermind)

 

Dunn: LF

Pena: DH/1B

Fielder/Adgon: 1B/DH

[Gom]

Adrian Gonzalez will not be a Red Sox. It just doesn't make sense.

 

First of all, they have Beltre at third. Secondly, they have Youkilis at first.

 

Where would you put him? Now, if Gonzalez was going to be traded at next year's deadline, fine. As of now, the Red Sox are carrying one bad contract with Lowell. If they got AGon, it would be two. Who sits? Ortiz? Beltre? You'd have 20 million on your bench in two players.

 

I was very happy as a Yankee fan when you got Beltre. That basically put you out of the running for AGon. Now that the rumor is that Beckham may be included, I think it's safe to say that AGon looks headed for the Sox, just the White ones.

[example1]

Example and everyone else....

 

THEY ARE NOT OFFERING ARBITRATION TO DAVID ORTIZ!!!

 

It isnt happening. Why the hell would the sox commit to at least $13 million in 1 season when they could easily resign him for something in the $6-$8 million range. Lets put it this way, if the sox wanted Ortiz to return, they'd work something out. It's pretty obvious that Ortiz wants to stay in Boston and would probably accept any arbitration offer.

 

Case in point, Hideki Matsui. Came off one injury filled season and has had 2 solid yrs in the last 3. He's relegated to only DH duty by injury and he significantly outplayed Ortiz in 2009. He got $6 million from the Halos. Do you really think that Ortiz is worth more than double that?

 

Here's the deal, the sox are going to buyout Ortiz after the season no matter what and if they liked what they saw, they might negotiate a 2yr $15mil deal or so to keep the big man around, or maybe one of their famous 1yr deals with separate team and player options like they did with Varitek. It makes absolutely no fiscal sense to pick up a $12 million option for a player whose market worth is half that

 

Jacko you're absolutely right. Except for the "arbitration" thing (it's an option, as you pointed out later). My point was more that because they have an option for him, they would work it so they can keep him longer (like you say, probably under a better contract) and the option is one way they can do that. If he hits .310/.405/.610 with 35 HR/135 RBI then I anticipate the option may be picked up, or they will offer him something close to that. But you are right about them having real negotiating power over him given the economic climate in baseball.

[Red Foreman]

Example and everyone else....

 

THEY ARE NOT OFFERING ARBITRATION TO DAVID ORTIZ!!!

 

It isnt happening. Why the hell would the sox commit to at least $13 million in 1 season when they could easily resign him for something in the $6-$8 million range. Lets put it this way, if the sox wanted Ortiz to return, they'd work something out. It's pretty obvious that Ortiz wants to stay in Boston and would probably accept any arbitration offer.

 

Case in point, Hideki Matsui. Came off one injury filled season and has had 2 solid yrs in the last 3. He's relegated to only DH duty by injury and he significantly outplayed Ortiz in 2009. He got $6 million from the Halos. Do you really think that Ortiz is worth more than double that?

 

Here's the deal, the sox are going to buyout Ortiz after the season no matter what and if they liked what they saw, they might negotiate a 2yr $15mil deal or so to keep the big man around, or maybe one of their famous 1yr deals with separate team and player options like they did with Varitek. It makes absolutely no fiscal sense to pick up a $12 million option for a player whose market worth is half that

 

You are basing this whole argument on one year of Matsui being better. If Papi returns to anywhere near his former self in 2010 you'll need to away your Matsui comparison and if he puts up the line mentioned above he is worth MUCH more than a guy with no knees.

[Keeper]

Adrian Gonzalez will not be a Red Sox. It just doesn't make sense.

 

First of all, they have Beltre at third. Secondly, they have Youkilis at first.

 

Where would you put him? Now, if Gonzalez was going to be traded at next year's deadline, fine. As of now, the Red Sox are carrying one bad contract with Lowell. If they got AGon, it would be two. Who sits? Ortiz? Beltre? You'd have 20 million on your bench in two players.

 

I was very happy as a Yankee fan when you got Beltre. That basically put you out of the running for AGon. Now that the rumor is that Beckham may be included, I think it's safe to say that AGon looks headed for the Sox, just the White ones.

 

It makes all the sense in the world under the right circumstances. If Ortiz and/or Beltre shits the bed in the first half of the season, you'd better believe Gonzalez will be on their radar.

 

If Beltre is replaced, Youk moves over to third, Gonzalez goes to first, and Ortiz remains the DH (with Lowell possibly spelling him against LHP).

 

If Ortiz is replaced, Beltre remains at third. And Youk or Gonzalez could play first or DH (take your pick).

 

They only signed Beltre to a one-year deal. At present, they're not married to him or Ortiz.

[SoxSport]

I think if Beltre has a decent season offensively, they will extend him. They'll probably see how things are in 6 months. Time is on their side.

[Dipre]

Adam Dunn would be a great fit. Its kinda funny how people fawn over Adrian Gonzalez' date=' but Dunn has proven to be the more consistent hitter. He strikes out a MASSIVE amount. He also walks over 100 times every single season. He will hit close to 40 homers in any stadium since his power is ridiculous. And he's pretty durable, having played 150+ games 7 of the last 8 seasons. If its all about defense, then I think he can make up for it with the bat. Pena is like a Dunn-lite. A bit less power, a bit less walks, similar BA. He's also be a good fit, but I think Dunn is better. Granted, Pena makes up for that small dropoff with better D. Dunn is a frickin butcher in the field[/quote']

 

It's not funny.

 

Dunn can't field any position, strikes out more and is more slump-prone. It's common sense. It's a better fit cost-wise, not talent wise.

[Dipre]

Fact remains though, that Pena costs just money.

 

Adgon won't. Fielder won't.

 

Both Pena and Dunn are cost-effective ways to add 30-40 or so HR's to your lineup without killing your other offensive numbers or draining your talent pool. I don't care if you hit them seventh, they'll be big helps to your lineup.

 

And if you really want to spend the money on an elite producer at 1B (assuming Pena somehow isn't one, but nevermind)

 

Dunn: LF

Pena: DH/1B

Fielder/Adgon: 1B/DH

 

Fielder, Gonzales and Dunn are all better hitters than Pena, with Pena being a better defender than Fielder and Dunn, however, with Youk at first, you can afford to go for the better hitter, and Pena's not the better hitter.

[Dipre]

It makes all the sense in the world under the right circumstances. If Ortiz and/or Beltre shits the bed in the first half of the season, you'd better believe Gonzalez will be on their radar.

 

If Beltre is replaced, Youk moves over to third, Gonzalez goes to first, and Ortiz remains the DH (with Lowell possibly spelling him against LHP).

 

If Ortiz is replaced, Beltre remains at third. And Youk or Gonzalez could play first or DH (take your pick).

 

They only signed Beltre to a one-year deal. At present, they're not married to him or Ortiz.

 

Excellent post.

[Dojji]

Fielder' date=' Gonzales and Dunn are all better hitters than Pena, with Pena being a better defender than Fielder and Dunn, however, with Youk at first, you can afford to go for the better hitter, and Pena's not the better hitter.[/quote']

 

I don't think, and I've gone out of my way to say this, that this is really an either-or proposition. We have potential holes at LF, DH, and 1B/3B. Dunn is a DH/LF, Pena's bat carries him at either DH or first, as does Fielder's or Adgon's. All we'd lose for 2 of the 3 is draft picks (and some defense in a position where we're accustomed to poor defense).

 

LF Dunn

1B Adgon

DH Pena

 

LF Dunn

1B Pena

DH Fielder

[Dipre]

I don't think, and I've gone out of my way to say this, that this is really an either-or proposition. We have potential holes at LF, DH, and 1B/3B. Dunn is a DH/LF, Pena's bat carries him at either DH or first, as does Fielder's or Adgon's. All we'd lose for 2 of the 3 is draft picks (and some defense in a position where we're accustomed to poor defense).

 

LF Dunn

1B Adgon

DH Pena

 

LF Dunn

1B Pena

DH Fielder

 

Fair enough.

[jacksonianmarch]

Wait, so Theo is going to change the mantra of the 2009 offseason and not care about defense in LF? No way!!

[Dipre]

LF: Ellsbury CF: Cameron RF: Drew

 

Beltre: FA

 

Options: 1B

 

Something i'm missing here, Einstein? Even though Dunn's a "LF" he'd be signed to play 1B or DH, because the OF is set.

[Dojji]

I'm not counting on Cameron to be a starting CF in the second year of his deal. He's in his late 30's and has already avoided a move to the corners longer than all but the most elite defensive CF.

 

On the flipside, if we do sign Dunn or another LHH power outfielder, Cameron could be very valuable as a 3 position platoon OF behind three lefthanded starting outfielders which while not a starting gig could be very valuable indeed -- he could also enhance his value off the bench by coming in late at LF, or at CF moving Ellsbury to LF, to help lock down the game when we have the lead.

[Dipre]

They signed him for two years to play the OF, regardless of position but you're not counting on him to play every day but be a 7.5 million backup if they sign someone like Dunn?

 

Ok then.

[Keeper]

Dunn would be perfect to replace Ortiz as the DH, but he should never, ever pick up a glove again if he goes to the AL.

[Dipre]

Dunn would be perfect to replace Ortiz as the DH' date=' but he should never, ever pick up a glove again if he goes to the AL.[/quote']

 

Common sense right here folks.