Breakout year?

[Dojji]

I disagree on Pena. He's not a candidate to break out in any meaningful sense of the word. He's a great candidate to produce excellently and maybe even improve on prior years, but I don't see where he can really go from here, especially since he's nearing the far end of his prime.

 

I actually have Pena as a collapse candidate if he can't improve his contact rates a bit. The guy is an Adam Dunn among Adam Dunns.

[Dipre]

Except he can actually play Defense.

[Dojji]

Well yeah, and he's definitely a very good player as long as he keeps hitting for elite power and taking plenty of walks. That .220 AVG is a definite weakness though.

[Dipre]

.247 lifetime batting average, last year was the first time he ever hit under .230, and he had a .250 BABIP. That is due for a correction.

[Dojji]

I certainly wouldn't mind bringing in Pena next year to replace Beltre. I'd guess you'd be in favor of that as well. I just think that that kind of hitter can be very volatile. Kinda a personal prejudice on my part I guess.

[Dipre]

I certainly wouldn't mind bringing in Pena next year to replace Beltre. I'd guess you'd be in favor of that as well. I just think that that kind of hitter can be very volatile. Kinda a personal prejudice on my part I guess.

 

Being prejudiced leads to being ignorant. This is not an insult, but a way for you to see why others, mainly me, are so adamant about fighting this matter to the death with you.

[Dojji]

Well sure, but we all have our little prejudices anyway. I know I like to make a judgement call on a guy and then stick with it until I have a reason to change it. I honestly don't think there's anything wrong with that. Since I'm always open to the possibility of my being wrong, even when I don't think I am, I have to say no harm, no foul.

[riverside sluggers]

http://d.yimg.com/eur.yimg.com/ng/sp/ap_photo/20090628/all/l3885255.jpg

 

Carlos Gonzalez

 

I think he could be a 30/30 guy

[Jasonbay44]

Red Sox - Buchholz

 

MLB - Andrew McCutchen

[Dipre]

Well sure' date=' but we all have our little prejudices anyway. I know I like to make a judgement call on a guy and then stick with it until I have a reason to change it. I honestly don't think there's anything wrong with that. Since I'm always open to the possibility of my being wrong, even when I don't think I am, I have to say no harm, no foul.[/quote']

 

If the guy rakes, i'll hold you to that.

[Dojji]

If he hits .270 or better, I'll post a mea culpa.

[Dipre]

If he hits .270 or better' date=' I'll post a mea culpa.[/quote']

 

I'll make it easier for you. OBP over .338. That would be an accomplishment.

[Dojji]

The guy has a career .355 OBP. I'm not going to post a mea culpa if he has a below average season.

[Dipre]

The guy has a career .355 OBP. I'm not going to post a mea culpa if he has a below average season.

 

I'm talking about Beltre. .355 OBP? No

[Imperial59]

He doesn't really apply to the break out candidate thing, but I invision Varitek being a tremendous offensive backup catcher and getting re-signed as the backup after this year. I think he could post an .850 OPS with routine rest. He's always done well at the beginning of the year before he wears down in the second half.

[Dipre]

.850 is a bit optimistic IMO, but above .810 should be doable, specially if his penchant for hammering lefties is thoroughly exploited.

[Imperial59]

.850 is a bit optimistic IMO' date=' but above .810 should be doable, specially if his penchant for hammering lefties is thoroughly exploited.[/quote']

 

He had an .849 OPS through the first 2 months of last year, he had an .829 OPS through the first 2 months of 2008 and an .827 OPS through the first two months of 2007. As a backup player, the Sox will be able to pick his spots starting him against lefties and at Fenway. Perhaps .810 is a little more realistic, but anything over an .800 OPS as a backup catcher is tremendous.

[Keeper]

An .850 OPS from Varitek isn't happening. He'll get a lot more rest while mostly facing lefties, but I would still be surprised if goes above .760. He had nothing left in the 2nd half of the season last year. He's old and starting to show it.

[Imperial59]

An .850 OPS from Varitek isn't happening. He'll get a lot more rest while mostly facing lefties' date=' but I would still be surprised if goes above .760. He had nothing left in the 2nd half of the season last year. He's old and starting to show it.[/quote']

 

He had nothing left in the second half AS THE REGULAR STARTING CATCHER. Starting every 4-5 days, I see no reason why he wouldn't be the great offensive catcher he's capable of.

[Dojji]

I'm talking about Beltre. .355 OBP? No

 

Dude, for like the last page we've been talking about Pena. Don't talk to me about keeping up with you when you change directions faster than a whitetail deer.

 

If Adrian Beltre puts up a higher OBP than Mike Lowell's 2009 next year, which is I guess the standard you put out, and puts up his usual half decent power numbers, then I'll be happy to admit I'm wrong.

[Dojji]

He doesn't really apply to the break out candidate thing' date=' but I invision Varitek being a tremendous offensive backup catcher and getting re-signed as the backup after this year. I think he could post an .850 OPS with routine rest. He's always done well at the beginning of the year before he wears down in the second half.[/quote']

 

So you're predicting he'll produce at his prime-years level at the tender age of 38,

 

I very strongly doubt it. On the other hand Gregg Zaun did it last year so who knows.

 

Personally I think Tek's done for good. He can still provide some intangibles but that's not enough to cover for his very tangible weaknesses. We're going to wish we got Max Ramirez for Lowell at some point this season IMHO.

 

This team needs to work with Tek on seguing him into the coaching staff somehow. I don't want to lose the leadership this guy can provide this team, and I want him in the wings if Tito's health gets to be a problem.

[Dipre]

Dude, for like the last page we've been talking about Pena. Don't talk to me about keeping up with you when you change directions faster than a whitetail deer.

 

If Adrian Beltre puts up a higher OBP than Mike Lowell's 2009 next year, which is I guess the standard you put out, and puts up his usual half decent power numbers, then I'll be happy to admit I'm wrong.

 

In all fairness, you bash Beltre so much that as soon as the word "Prejudice" came into play i stopped right there and thought you changed subject to him.

[Dipre]

So you're predicting he'll produce at his prime-years level at the tender age of 38,

 

I very strongly doubt it. On the other hand Gregg Zaun did it last year so who knows.

 

Personally I think Tek's done for good. He can still provide some intangibles but that's not enough to cover for his very tangible weaknesses. We're going to wish we got Max Ramirez for Lowell at some point this season IMHO.

 

He mashed lefties last year. Why can't he do it this year on a reduced role? It doesn't really make sense.

[Dojji]

He mashed lefties last year. Why can't he do it this year on a reduced role? It doesn't really make sense.

 

Mostly 'cuz he's not going to get the reps he's used to IMHO. That and he's 38 and declining fast.

[Dipre]

Mostly 'cuz he's not going to get the reps he's used to IMHO. That and he's 38 and declining fast.

 

Yeah but then there's the adjustment of having to prepare his swing only right-handed instead of switchie.

 

The "Declining fast" statement doesn't apply to his RHH production. He posted an OPS above, and had a .231 BA, but with a .228 BABIP. His production against lefties last year was no fluke, he actually underperformed.

[BSN07]

http://d.yimg.com/eur.yimg.com/ng/sp/ap_photo/20090628/all/l3885255.jpg

 

Carlos Gonzalez

 

I think he could be a 30/30 guy

 

Nice one.

 

I got racked over the coals for drafting him in our "anti-fantasy league". It's looking like a really solid pick now.

[BSN07]

As far as the "Tek back up" discussion goes I think Varitek will perform nicely as a back up.

 

But I'm going to pine for Max Ramirez/future C until they get one regardless of what Tek does. So I guess I agree with both camps on that discussion

[Imperial59]

So you're predicting he'll produce at his prime-years level at the tender age of 38' date='[/quote']

 

No, he's had a better OPS over four years of his career.

[Dojji]

Not that much better. His best years are around .860 OPS, well within any reasonable margin of error.

[Imperial59]

Not that much better. His best years are around .860 OPS' date=' well within any reasonable margin of error.[/quote']

 

I have said that .850 was a bit too optimistic and .810 is probably more realistic. But we're really just arguing semantics at this point. Any OPS over .800 is really good for a backup catcher. Only seven catchers in all of baseball had an OPS over .800 last year.