V-Mart hopes to avoid FA Market

[riverside sluggers]

You always make comments like that. They just arent right. He has a point, which you can counter, but both of you are right at this point

 

A bust depends on the type of expectations set forth. If he thought that Beltre circa 2004 was the expectation, then he's a major bust. But Beltre 2005-2008 wasnt that bad. Beltre 2009 was horrid and that leaves a lot of people with concern over his play coming into the season.

 

Also, look at Beltre's body of work. It might surprise you to see how consistent he is. Consistently average from the offensive perspective. His career line is .270/.325/.453 for an OPS of .778. He has eclipsed an .800OPS 3 times in his 11 yr career. He's been between .710 and .804 8 times in his 11 seasons. So, while you tout park adjusted stats, there is a long body of work showing Beltre's consistency. He's a mid to high .700s OPS third baseman. He has above average power for the position, but not spectacular. He is very aggressive leaving his IsoPatience pretty low. Offensively, he won't kill you, but he isnt a guy to lean on either. Exactly why the Mariners failed with him. He was expected to be a middle of the order bat. He isnt. But as an isolated commodity, an average OPS guy with above average power and a great glove at 3b is valuable. So, he's worth the money to the sox. Doesnt mean everyone is thrilled with him. Now, I do expect his offense to improve in the sox lineup and in Fenway, but by how much? That's the question. And, he's coming off an injury filled, terrible season, which clouds the predictions even further. He has a right to be concerned.

 

Now, you try to make the comparison to Lowell, which is off base IMO. Lowell and Beltre have been playing full time for 11 seasons. In that time, Lowell has a 30 point advantage on Beltre in OPS over their careers, and Lowell has surpassed .800 6 times in his career. Plus, by removing one completely abnormal season from Lowell where he has a .650OPS over 500ABs, you see that he's been .788 or higher in all seasons after his rookie campaign. That OPS is higher than Beltre's career OPS. So, Lowell is more of a threat IMO. And, dont use the park effects for that either since Lowell is only helped by his first yr in Boston and not helped by his last 2.

 

Regardless, Beltre is an upgrade defensively from Lowell regardless of health since Lowell couldnt move. Offensively, if he's healthy, he's a mild downgrade. If he isnt healthy, then he'll be a burden for 2010, but just a 1 yr burden

 

Him tearing a testicle could happen again?? Perish the thought

 

Lowell basically is good for 17 HRs/75 RBIs. Beltre will have a season of at least those numbers

[Dipre]

You always make comments like that. They just arent right. He has a point, which you can counter, but both of you are right at this point

 

A bust depends on the type of expectations set forth. If he thought that Beltre circa 2004 was the expectation, then he's a major bust. But Beltre 2005-2008 wasnt that bad. Beltre 2009 was horrid and that leaves a lot of people with concern over his play coming into the season.

 

Also, look at Beltre's body of work. It might surprise you to see how consistent he is. Consistently average from the offensive perspective. His career line is .270/.325/.453 for an OPS of .778. He has eclipsed an .800OPS 3 times in his 11 yr career. He's been between .710 and .804 8 times in his 11 seasons. So, while you tout park adjusted stats, there is a long body of work showing Beltre's consistency. He's a mid to high .700s OPS third baseman. He has above average power for the position, but not spectacular. He is very aggressive leaving his IsoPatience pretty low. Offensively, he won't kill you, but he isnt a guy to lean on either. Exactly why the Mariners failed with him. He was expected to be a middle of the order bat. He isnt. But as an isolated commodity, an average OPS guy with above average power and a great glove at 3b is valuable. So, he's worth the money to the sox. Doesnt mean everyone is thrilled with him. Now, I do expect his offense to improve in the sox lineup and in Fenway, but by how much? That's the question. And, he's coming off an injury filled, terrible season, which clouds the predictions even further. He has a right to be concerned.

 

Now, you try to make the comparison to Lowell, which is off base IMO. Lowell and Beltre have been playing full time for 11 seasons. In that time, Lowell has a 30 point advantage on Beltre in OPS over their careers, and Lowell has surpassed .800 6 times in his career. Plus, by removing one completely abnormal season from Lowell where he has a .650OPS over 500ABs, you see that he's been .788 or higher in all seasons after his rookie campaign. That OPS is higher than Beltre's career OPS. So, Lowell is more of a threat IMO. And, dont use the park effects for that either since Lowell is only helped by his first yr in Boston and not helped by his last 2.

 

Regardless, Beltre is an upgrade defensively from Lowell regardless of health since Lowell couldnt move. Offensively, if he's healthy, he's a mild downgrade. If he isnt healthy, then he'll be a burden for 2010, but just a 1 yr burden

 

Whenever someone makes an argument bashing something about the Red Sox "he has a point". The fact that you agree further raises questions about his thought process.

 

I always make comments like that with a reason, and when made towards they are usually right. Bias much?. Unlike me, you simply cannot acknowledge anything good about the other team, which makes you calling me out an act of hypocrisy, so i suggest you stop typing.

 

Him tearing a testicle could happen again?? Perish the thought

 

Lowell basically is good for 17 HRs/75 RBIs. Beltre will have a season of at least those numbers

 

This.

[Dipre]

That's a fair take from Jacko. Frankly, I wouldn't mind throwing both of them over and going for the original plan I wanted, a mid 20's HR hitting 1B and let Youkilis take third.

 

The Sox FO though seems to think Youkilis is more "a 1B who can manage adequately as a long-term 3B backup" than "a 3B." That being the case, and given our total lack of young 3B prospects that have any chance of cracking the roster, id probably makes sense to take a look over this season and next offseason at young 3B's we could acquire in trade.

 

WARNING: TRADE SPECULATION TO FOLLOW.

 

All the vibes I've heard in Kansas City suggests that there's kind of an odd relationship there with Alberto Callaspo. Trey Hillman put up a preliminary "first draft lineup" that had Chris Getz at second, not sure what that was, maybe they don't think he can hack it at second, maybe they were just trying to motivate him, but there's some definite friction between Callaspo and KC right now when you'd think the last thing they'd want to do is alienate their second-best hitter. Seattle's already picked up the phone a couple times if the rumors are to be believed but so far Callaspo isn't for sale.

 

If Callaspo shoots his way out of KC somehow, I wouldn't mind at all taking a chance on him at third, where he's looked good over a SSS. His bat played like Bill Mueller's last year (as did his glove at second lol), but I think he could carry himself at 3B offensively and I think Callaspo is a natural 3B.

 

Of course it's a fair take in your opinion. Beltre obviously used to steal your lunch money back when you were in high school. He deserves to not be a Red Sox for such a travesty. Lol Adam LaRoche.

[jacksonianmarch]

wait, so no retort at all to my post, just to my allegiance. Then, instead of rebutting Dojji, you make fun of him. I thought you were working on becoming a better poster since your triumphant return?

[Dojji]

Of course it's a fair take in your opinion. Beltre obviously used to steal your lunch money back when you were in high school. He deserves to not be a Red Sox for such a travesty. Lol Adam LaRoche.

 

What is this even, Dipre? You've been foaming at the mouth every time everyone anyone suggests that a guy who hit .265/.305/.379/.684 last year might not light up the league.

 

He had a rotten year, he's coming off a surgery, he's got more miles on him as a professional ballplayer than Mike Lowell has, if this guy had been a Red Sox last year we'd have been all for moving the guy along, why does he get a pass?

[Dipre]

So is your thought process not inconsistent because of your allegiance?

 

You claim Curtis Granderson, coming from a pitcher's park into a Lefty-friendly park will boost his overall numbers. But Adrian Beltre, coming from a pitcher's park into a Righty-friendly park will not boost his numbers enough to at least be a wash in production compared to Lowell?

 

It'd be harder if the inconsistencies caused by bias weren't so obvious.

[jacksonianmarch]

You know what, it's time you put your money where your mouth is, Dipre. You have been licking Beltre's balls ever since he signed with Boston, and while others have brought up Beltre's concerns you have continued to tell people how stupid they are. Time for you to man up and put a prediction out there, so that if he fails to live up to it, then you're the idiot. Go for it, I'm waiting.

[Dipre]

What is this even, Dipre? You've been foaming at the mouth every time everyone anyone suggests that a guy who hit .265/.305/.379/.684 last year might not light up the league.

 

He had a rotten year, he's coming off a surgery, he's got more miles on him as a professional ballplayer than Mike Lowell has, if this guy had been a Red Sox last year we'd have been all for moving the guy along, why does he get a pass?

 

You're claiming it's easier for Lowell to regain his mobility than for Beltre to regain his power stroke at Fenway. That is ridiculous. And please don't talk about foaming mouths, after displaying a massive hard-on and blind rage defending the epic awesomenes of Adam Laroche.

 

A Doiji-Jacko alliance. Now i just know i'm right. I'm going out and buying "Adrian Beltre AL MVP" t-shirt right now. Brb.

[jacksonianmarch]

So is your thought process not inconsistent because of your allegiance?

 

You claim Curtis Granderson, coming from a pitcher's park into a Lefty-friendly park will boost his overall numbers. But Adrian Beltre, coming from a pitcher's park into a Righty-friendly park will not boost his numbers enough to at least be a wash in production compared to Lowell?

 

It'd be harder if the inconsistencies caused by bias weren't so obvious.

 

Granderson is coming off a career worst yr, which is still a pretty good season. His two prior seasons in 2007 and 2008 were phenomenal. Park effect will have something to do with it, but I think more a return to his prior performance could be the reason for his return to significant success. Beltre had one season of stellar performance 6 seasons ago. Thats the difference. Also, Beltre is coming off a terrible season in which he had two injuries, one to his shoulder.

[Dipre]

Granderson is coming off a career worst yr' date=' which is still a pretty good season. His two prior seasons in 2007 and 2008 were phenomenal. Park effect will have something to do with it, but I think more a return to his prior performance could be the reason for his return to significant success. Beltre had one season of stellar performance 6 seasons ago. Thats the difference. Also, Beltre is coming off a terrible season in which he had two injuries, one to his shoulder.[/quote']

 

Obviously shoulder injuries are extremely damaging to hitters, even more so than pitchers. Who's that guy putting up .900 OPS seasons in-spite of built-on shoulder protection on his contract?

 

Comerica to NYS works wonders.

 

Safeco to Fenway doesn't.

 

Got the memo.

[riverside sluggers]

Jacko Ive said countless times I wouldnt be surprised if he puts up at least 20 HRs and 80 RBIs. Its not me praising him like he's a HOF or anything. This past season was a fluke year that involved having a freak injury

 

What is this even, Dipre? You've been foaming at the mouth every time everyone anyone suggests that a guy who hit .265/.305/.379/.684 last year might not light up the league.

 

He had a rotten year, he's coming off a surgery, he's got more miles on him as a professional ballplayer than Mike Lowell has, if this guy had been a Red Sox last year we'd have been all for moving the guy along, why does he get a pass?

 

And if Mike Lowell was a Red Sox in 2005, we'd have been all for moving on from him

[Dipre]

Jacko Ive said countless times I wouldnt be surprised if he puts up at least 20 HRs and 80 RBIs. Its not me praising him like he's a HOF or anything. This past season was a fluke year that involved having a freak injury

 

 

You mean it's actually possible for a hitter to recover from shoulder surgery and a freak nut injury while playing in one of the worst ballparks for hitters in the Majors?

 

Wow, you learn something new every day.

 

And if Mike Lowell was a Red Sox in 2005, we'd have been all for moving on from him

 

 

How dare you use logic!

[jacksonianmarch]

Dipre is just being a moron now.

 

Lowell was a return to prior success. Park effect, IMO, had little to do with it. He had an awful season the yr prior to coming to Boston. They happen.

 

I agree that park effect is there, but I dont think it has as much to do with it as Dipre is touting. Maybe, at most, 30 points to an OPS. Some guys are more, some are less, especially when you talk about a guy like Johnny Damon, but that's a special case. My point is that Beltre has been incredibly consistent throughout his career. He had one career yr and otherwise has been in the mid to high .700 range throughout his career. To expect him to be significantly better than that is ridiculous, IMO.

[jacksonianmarch]

waiting on that prediction Dipre

[Dipre]

Jorge Posada.

 

I'm just being a moron right?

 

Maybe if Beltre was a Yankee, pinstripe power could help him heal with little to no damage?

 

At least i'm just a moron. You're a biased, inconsistent moron.

[jacksonianmarch]

I said last yr that Posada was a questionmark, and he came back and proved he was healthy. Beltre needs to do that to shed his questions.

 

Or maybe every time you have surgery, you shouldnt have any sort of concern about a player. None actually.

[jacksonianmarch]

So let me get this straight...

 

A guy with a .778 career OPS who is coming off a sub .700OPS season and shoulder surgery should not be considered a questionmark and anyone who thinks otherwise is an idiot? Solid reasoning Dipre. Still waiting on the prediction btw. Time to put your money where your mouth is

[Dojji]

J

And if Mike Lowell was a Red Sox in 2005, we'd have been all for moving on from him

 

 

 

Sure, and that's why Lowell was a definite "question mark" when he was brought in as a salary dump from the Beckett deal. At the time we had depth lined up in case he couldn't hack it, and Lowell had to PROVE in 2006 that he could return to health and effectiveness. why not apply the same standard to Beltre?

[Dipre]

[table]Topic|Player Leaves|Team|Content

Prospect|Yankees|The player in question is made of 150% pure awesomeness. Fear us.

Prospect|Sox|He could be good, but this is why he won't be.

Signing|Yankees|This is the missing piece. We'll win 160 games, and the umps will screw us out of 2.

Signing|Sox|Risky move, overpaid here, they'll regret this.

Injury|Yankees|They don't get hurt. Hypothetically, if they did, the recovery will be speedy with no impact to ability.

Injury|Sox|Everyone is a ticking time bomb. Once hurt, they'll never heal right.

Player Leaves|Yankees|They are better off without him, he was hurt/too old/sucked

Player Leaves|Redsox|They are really gunna regret it, he wasnt all that hurt/hes still young/He has a lot left in the tank.[/table]

 

A two-for-one!.

 

So let me get this straight:

 

1) Since he's on the Red Sox, he won't heal right. Ever.

 

2 ) Since he's on the Red Sox, the park adjustment won't have an effect on him. So his career OPS is brought into the argument without accounting for park effects. The only year he didn't have an OPS+ above 105 since 2006 last year. Curtis Granderson will be awesome in NYS though. Oh well, such is life. :dunno:

[jacksonianmarch]

mind putting up a prediction or are you gonna keep dancing around it?

[Dipre]

I've put my prediction up like 27,000 times.

 

And for the record, i don't have to "dance around it". Who are you to tell me what i should or shouldn't post?

 

Prediction:

 

.268/.340/.490 .810 OPS. 30 HR's, 35 2B's, 85 RBI.

[Dojji]

You just lost your license to call anything I say about anyone, ever, "overoptimistic."

 

The HR's and doubles aren't COMPLETELY insane, but no way he manages a .340 OBP.

[Cocos Disciples]

Stop being dicks, everybody.

 

And just for reference, PECOTA projects .274/.328/.446; 17 HR, 27 2B, 62 RBI.

[jacksonianmarch]

That is optimistic, but not out of reach. Regardless, to put other people down when they question his contributions, then predict something not too far away from his career numbers is ridiculous. You had been touting him like he's some sort of savior

[Dipre]

You feel called out because you're a victim of inconsistency to the point where a table had to be created to save other posters time when answering your dribble. It's ok, i understand.

[jacksonianmarch]

Once again, that is not what I said. I said that you have been calling people out who have been concerned about Beltre, concerned that he won't produce enough in Boston. All valid concerns. Then, you make a prediction that isnt too far forward from his baseline.

 

Listen man, you have done nothing but be in the middle of every fight on this forum since you arrived. Maybe, just maybe, if you think about it, the problem isnt everyone else.

[Dipre]

You don't have moral grounds to call me out on such a manner, you hypocrite.

 

An inconsistent thought process is exactly that. If someone's going to start an argument by saying "I don't care what your "X" stat says" when he has used stats in the past to defend denotes inconsistency.

 

Just like saying "X player can benefit from moving to a new park" when said park is noticeable for benefitting said player's skillset then turning back and brushing aside the same situation for another because it suits your argument denotes inconsistency as well. I will call people out on it again and again and again and 9 times out of 10 you'll be in the front line.

 

You fully expected Jorge Posada to come back from his shoulder issues with little to no impact to offense, but of course, Beltre's going to absolutely suck, not to mention, Fenway park will have absolutely no bearing on his numbers when comparing it to Safeco Field. I fully expect Curtis Granderson to benefit from NYS just like i fully expect Beltre to benefit from Fenway. I also know that the shoulder procedure was not as big a deal as some are making it out to be and that the testicle injury was a completely freak occurence.

[jacksonianmarch]

I never once said that Beltre is due to suck. Only that he's a questinmark. Reading is fundamental. I actually gave you my predictions for him awhile back and they are very similar to yours. I just am less sure about them as I am about others due to his injury. I predicted Jorge would come back strong but never argued that he was a question. You need to understand that. You obviously don't. Just because I raise concerns about a player doesn't mean that I am predicting their demise. Just that they have a conditon attached to my prediction, that's all

[Dipre]

[table]Topic|Player Leaves|Team|Content

Prospect|Yankees|The player in question is made of 150% pure awesomeness. Fear us.

Prospect|Sox|He could be good, but this is why he won't be.

Signing|Yankees|This is the missing piece. We'll win 160 games, and the umps will screw us out of 2.

Signing|Sox|Risky move, overpaid here, they'll regret this.

Injury|Yankees|They don't get hurt. Hypothetically, if they did, the recovery will be speedy with no impact to ability.

Injury|Sox|Everyone is a ticking time bomb. Once hurt, they'll never heal right.

Player Leaves|Yankees|They are better off without him, he was hurt/too old/sucked

Player Leaves|Redsox|They are really gunna regret it, he wasnt all that hurt/hes still young/He has a lot left in the tank.[/table]

 

 

^Greatest contribution in TS history.

[YAZMAN]

^Greatest contribution in TS history.

 

The way you posted it makes it look like you wrote it.