Keith Law Top 100 includes 7 Red Sox

[Dojji]

How did Kevin Youkilis crack the roster?

 

Just because a guy starts as a backup doesn't mean he can't earn his way from there. Youkilis' 3 year window would have encompassed respectable showings in 2006 and 2007 as unspectacularly solid starting 1B and met your criterion, even if he was never originally intended to do so..

 

I honestly think Kalish is going to impress some people. As for Richardson and Doubront, it comes down to what they do once they get here, since the bullpen can be a bit of a crapshoot at the best of times.

 

Wagner doesn't have a great shot with Expo coming, except that you're assuming Expo has a great year. He's got a talented bat, but it's no secret his approach is a little meh, and advanced pitching could expose him this year. Besides, both of our big league catchers have contracts that expire this year, so if we lose the Mauer sweepstakes we might wind up with 2 holes to fill there.

[Dipre]

How did Kevin Youkilis crack the roster?

 

Just because a guy starts as a backup doesn't mean he can't earn his way from there. Youkilis' 3 year window would have encompassed respectable showings in 2006 and 2007 as unspectacularly solid starting 1B and met your criterion, even if he was never originally intended to do so..

 

Kalish or Wagner might be blocked because we tend to like to fill players at their position with talented veterans if we can, but the bullpen is very flexible. We have an aging outfield, age at catcher, and holes in the bullpen, there's plenty of opportunites for any one of the four players I mentioned to establish themselves over the next 2 years.

 

Aren't we talking about cracking the roster and staying there in 2012? Youk rode the shuttle quite a bit before becoming a regular. If you keep it in context, you'll notice i'm not saying they don't have the potential (specially Kalish) but that they're unlikely to be roster fixtures by 2012, which is what the conversation revolves around. Except BP arms, which are usually the early flameouts.

[a700hitter]

How did Kevin Youkilis crack the roster?

 

Just because a guy starts as a backup doesn't mean he can't earn his way from there. Youkilis' 3 year window would have encompassed respectable showings in 2006 and 2007 as unspectacularly solid starting 1B and met your criterion, even if he was never originally intended to do so..

 

Kalish or Wagner might be blocked because we tend to like to fill players at their position with talented veterans if we can, but the bullpen is very flexible. We have an aging outfield, age at catcher, and holes in the bullpen, there's plenty of opportunites for any one of the four players I mentioned to establish themselves over the next 2 years.

Backups don't count. If someone is blocking their way at the major league level, that's too bad. Yaz kept generations of prospects from being major league starters. I established the over/under bet. I set the criteria. If you want to make a prediction based on that criteiria, fine.

[a700hitter]

Aren't we talking about cracking the roster and staying there in 2012? Youk rode the shuttle quite a bit before becoming a regular. If you keep it in context' date=' you'll notice i'm not saying they don't have the potential (specially Kalish) but that they're unlikely to be roster fixtures by 2012, which is what the conversation revolves around. Except BP arms, which are usually the early flameouts.[/quote']I'm talking about manning a position full time within the three years. Bench players and Pawtucket Shuttle guys don't count.

[Dipre]

I'm talking about manning a position full time within the three years. Bench players and Pawtucket Shuttle guys don't count.

 

I say Exposito becomes the regular catcher by 2012.

[Dojji]

Oh, I have no trouble at all believing that we'll have more than 3 big leaguers matriculate over the next 3 years. My only point is that it might not be the guys you'd instantly think about.

 

Over the next three years Cameron, Drew, and Hermida will be moving on, and the impending FA lists for outfielders are fairly underwhelming over the next 2-3 years IMHO. I have little difficulty believing that Kalish, Ellsbury and Reddick will all get ample opportunities to prove that they can be starting players. Unless we re-sign Drew or sign Carl Crawford, these guys won't even be jostling.

 

V-Mart and Tek are both leaving next year as well, unless we get something done and the list of impending FA's at the catcher's spot is VERY weak. If we wind up in the same place re: Mauer and V-Mart as we did re: Holliday and Bay, I could see us promoting two catchers and basing playing time off performance. Expo is more talented than Wags, but Wags is much more seasoned, so I'm not sure which way that would go.

[a700hitter]

I think the over/under set at 3 is very reasonable. In the period for 2006 to 2008, Ellsbury, Pedroia, Lester, Youkilis, and Papelbon all emerged to hold down regualr spots. That's five. Who will make the grade from 2010-2012? If they are stuck on the bench behind players like Youk or Ellsbury, they don't count.

[a700hitter]

I say Exposito becomes the regular catcher by 2012.

So, you are taking the over.

[Dipre]

Oh, I have no trouble at all believing that we'll have more than 3 big leaguers matriculate over the next 3 years. My only point is that it might not be the guys you'd instantly think about.

 

Over the next three years Cameron, Drew, and Hermida will be moving on, and the impending FA lists for outfielders are fairly underwhelming over the next 2-3 years IMHO. I have little difficulty believing that Kalish, Ellsbury and Reddick will all get ample opportunities to prove that they can be starting players. Unless we re-sign Drew these guys won't even be jostling.

 

I highly doubt the Sox are going to enter 2012 without a power bat in the OF besides an unproven Westmoreland.

 

One of Kalish, Reddick and Ellsbury will be a regular, but not two of them. The premise is to project 3 regulars/starting rotation members for 2012.

[Dipre]

So' date=' you are taking the over.[/quote']

 

Gimme the over.

 

I say Kelly takes over a rotation spot, Iglesias takes over SS, Westmoreland takes over RF and Exposito becomes the main catcher.

[Dojji]

One but not two? Dipre, they need to sign a guy or we'll have ALL THREE. Even if Drew plays out 2011, which is a potential optout year for the Sox depending on Drew's health, it's doubtful he'll still be here much beyond that. And the FA list for 2011 is Crawford and Nobody, so we're going to have two of those guys out there and probably the third playing 4th Outfield -- and that's if we don't get pennywise and pound foolish trying to sign Crawford.

 

But then, I suppose I'm not counting on a guy who's never put up a healthy professional season to be a fulltime big league superstar starter, and I therefore must be a fool.

[Dipre]

One but not two? Dipre' date=' they need to sign a guy or we'll have ALL THREE. Even if Drew plays out 2011, which is a potential optout year for the Sox depending on Drew's health, it's doubtful he'll still be here much beyond that. And the FA list for 2011 is Crawford and Nobody, so we're going to have two of those guys out there and probably the third playing 4th Outfield -- and that's if we don't get pennywise and pound foolish trying to sign Crawford.[/quote']

 

I'm talking about regular playing time Doiji. All three of them project to be above average CF, but none of them (with the exception of maybe Reddick) will develop enough power to be a COF. The "Ellsbury plays LF" alignment like this year is the exception, not the norm. I say they sign a big-ticket FA to cover one of the COF spots while keeping Westmoreland for RF and one of the other three for CF and maybe a bench spot. Also, for the purposes of this exercise, Ellsbury has already graduated, so he doesn't count.

[Dipre]

But then' date=' I suppose I'm not counting on a guy who's never put up a healthy professional season to be a fulltime big league superstar starter, and I therefore must be a fool.[/quote']

 

You are being smug though.

 

No one said West will be a superstar, we're expecting for him to be given a shot. If you wanna overvalue prospects like Jacko, go right ahead, but this won't earn you any favors as for your characterization of a "smug" poster.

[Dojji]

I'm talking about regular playing time Doiji. All three of them project to be above average CF' date=' but none of them (with the exception of maybe Reddick) will develop enough power to be a COF. The "Ellsbury plays LF" alignment like this year is the exception, not the norm. I say they sign a big-ticket FA to cover one of the COF spots while keeping Westmoreland for RF and one of the other three for CF and maybe a bench spot. Also, for the purposes of this exercise, Ellsbury has already graduated, so he doesn't count.[/quote']

 

 

 

Ellsbury will go back to CF after Cameron leaves. Reddick will probably play right after Drew, since he's the best guy we have there and better than most of the big league RF's. That leaves Crawford/Westmoreland/Kalish/other FA for left field.

[Dojji]

I don't know where you're getting that Reddick doesn't have corner OF power. His power potential was supposed to be one of his major selling points and his IsoP in Portland this year was actually very good.

 

Now his discipline might get in the way and stop him from getting enough contact to let him use his power effectively, but as I understand it, raw power is most definitely not Reddick's problem.

 

If Reddick plays well in Pawtucket this year, and performs solidly in a callup I could see him as our starting RF next year with Drew moved to left field to cut down on wear and tear.

[Dipre]

I don't know where you're getting that Reddick doesn't have corner OF power. His power potential was supposed to be one of his major selling points and his IsoP in Portland this year was actually very good.

 

Now his discipline might get in the way and stop him from getting enough contact to let him use his power effectively, but as I understand it, raw power is most definitely not Reddick's problem.

 

Raw power is nothing if you don't have the plate discipline and contact skills. Where is Joel Guzman now?

[Dojji]

Thing is, Reddick's discipline is only about average but his contact skills are actually very good. AVG-driven hitters can be very good offensive players. We used to have one as our starting shortstop.

 

Sure, our lasting memory of the guy was from when he jumped two levels to the big leagues and looked correspondingly lost, but I wouldn't let that erase the rest of what the guy has done in the minors.

[Dipre]

Thing is, Reddick's discipline is only about average but his contact skills are actually very good. AVG-driven hitters can be very good offensive players. We used to have one as our starting shortstop.

 

Sure, our lasting memory of the guy was from when he jumped two levels to the big leagues and looked correspondingly lost, but I wouldn't let that erase the rest of what the guy has done in the minors.

 

He can put the bat on the ball, but unless he starts putting the bat on the ball solidly in the upper minors, i'm not sold. He looked good in AA, but what happens when he starts facing veterans that feed him breaking stuff by batches?

 

He also needs to hit lefties if he wants to become a ML regular.

[Dojji]

Dipre. You know as well as I do that AA is the upper minors. It's about time to stop holding out on Reddick. He tattooed the Eastern League at age 22. He is on pace to make the majors for good by age 24. He's officially on the radar, it is time to treat him as such -- a few warts and all.

[Dipre]

Dipre. You know as well as I do that AA is the upper minors. It's about time to stop holding out on Reddick. He tattooed the Eastern League at age 22. He is on pace to make the majors for good by age 24. He's officially on the radar' date=' it is time to treat him as such -- a few warts and all.[/quote']

 

Actually, even though AA is the "Prospect showcase league" i'd refer to Pawtucket as the upper minors, but that's just me.

 

Sure, he had a very pretty .871 OPS in 256 AB's, but he also struck out 62 times, good for 24% of his AB's. I like Reddick, but i like to keep things in context. If you get all psyched looking at the pretty numbers without analyzing the underlying stats then you're prone to over-hyping prospects, like, well, you know who.

 

If he keeps a diminished K rate at Pawtucket (18% in 71 AB's last year), hits lefties, improves his discipline somewhat and keeps hitting for power, then he'll be on the map. I'm a Red Sox fan, but i'm not buying into the hype machine without making my own analysis.

[Dojji]

The only reason to use the term "the upper minors" in my opinion is to encompass both AA and AAA. Otherwise, just saying "AAA" or "Pawtucket" is clearer.

 

I'm cognizant of the strikeouts, but I'm not too worried about them because they're not the result of an inability to make contact, which is IMHO the big reason you'd worry about strikeouts. Reddick is a power hitter, strikeouts come with the territory -- even more disciplined power hitters like Ortiz, Youks or Bay sill strike out a fair bit. Hitting for power without striking out a ton is reserved for utter freaks like Pujols and Mauer.

 

I'm more concerned about the franchise's willingness to jerk him around. It strikes me as exactly the wrong approach with a guy like Reddick who needs to get consistent reps in order to gain confidence and discipline.

[Plumpamania]

KEVIN MASS WAS A GOD PROSPECT OMG OGM GOMG OGM I WNT KEVN MASS

[Dojji]

The heck?

[Dipre]

The only reason to use the term "the upper minors" in my opinion is to encompass both AA and AAA. Otherwise, just saying "AAA" or "Pawtucket" is clearer.

 

I'm cognizant of the strikeouts, but I'm not too worried about them because they're not the result of an inability to make contact, which is IMHO the big reason you'd worry about strikeouts. Reddick is a power hitter, strikeouts come with the territory -- even more disciplined power hitters like Ortiz, Youks or Bay sill strike out a fair bit. Hitting for power without striking out a ton is reserved for utter freaks like Pujols and Mauer.

 

I'm more concerned about the franchise's willingness to jerk him around. It strikes me as exactly the wrong approach with a guy like Reddick who needs to get consistent reps in order to gain confidence and discipline.

 

I think that's where you're mistaken. Reddick is not a pure power hitter, he's a contact hitter with above-average power. If you're a guy with little plate discipline who needs to put the bat on the ball, you simply can't strike out 24% of the time. I have no idea where you get this "Reddick is a power hitter" idea from though..

 

Also, you're talking like the guy has absolutely smoked AA, but in 420 PA's, he has a cumulative 257/.332/.492 (.824 OPS) that's good, but not spectacular.

 

He also regressed against LHP last year, which is a concern, since his splits in 2007 and 2008 were fairly even:

 

2007: 530 SLG vs righties, 524 vs lefties

2008: .524 SLG vs righties, 600 vs lefties (Even though he had limited exposure to lefties.)

2009: .461 SLG vs righties, .409 vs lefties.

 

That is cause for concern. If you look up his stats and game log, you'll notice that they were actually limiting his exposure against LHP.

 

I like the kid, as i said before, but he has a lot of things he needs to work on. One needs to look at prospects realistically.

[jacksonianmarch]

Reddick really got overhyped because of his part season in A+ ball in 2007 when he hit 17 homers in Lancaster. He has consistently been a .800+OPS guy with moderate patience who strikes out in bunches and will hit double digit homers. He's turning 23 in a couple weeks, so he still has a couple seasons to make a mark in the bigs. I will not rule out his chances of being a starting OFer for Boston and I definitely think he profiles as a starting CFer in the major leagues. I just dont know if the stick will be enough to play the corners in the majors. Hence why I think he gets a cup of coffee this season in the majors as a showcase, say when Drew goes down or if Cameron gets hurt. He's prime trade bait, though. Especially if Kalish has a good yr, since he fits the sox mold a bit better (higher BB rate and developing power).

[Dipre]

Reddick really got overhyped because of his part season in A+ ball in 2007 when he hit 17 homers in Lancaster. He has consistently been a .800+OPS guy with moderate patience who strikes out in bunches and will hit double digit homers. He's turning 23 in a couple weeks' date=' so he still has a couple seasons to make a mark in the bigs. I will not rule out his chances of being a starting OFer for Boston and [b']I definitely think he profiles as a starting CFer in the major leagues. I just dont know if the stick will be enough to play the corners in the majors.[/b] Hence why I think he gets a cup of coffee this season in the majors as a showcase, say when Drew goes down or if Cameron gets hurt. He's prime trade bait, though. Especially if Kalish has a good yr, since he fits the sox mold a bit better (higher BB rate and developing power).

 

Are you nuts?

 

The guy's a power hitter!

[Plumpamania]

Dipre is in jerk mode...btw Jackson you smell like cottage cheese.

[Dipre]

Dipre is in jerk mode...btw Jackson you smell like cottage cheese.

 

Awwwww i'm not being a jerk.

 

But really, the kid's a bit overhyped. He's a good athlete but he has some flaws that need fixing in his game. Agree about Jacko smelling like cottage cheese.

[jacksonianmarch]

Are you nuts?

 

The guy's a power hitter!

 

Its Dojji. Do you really want to start arguing with him about prospects. He more prospect batty than I am. Reddick will not be a power hitter, IMO. And a power hitter to me is someone with 30+HR power. But I think he could safely hover around the .800OPS mark in CF, which most any team would love to have. The problem is, Reddick is blocked by Jacoby and I doubt that he'll hit enough to start at the corners for Boston. I bet he's a starting CFer for some team come 2011.

[Dipre]

Its Dojji. Do you really want to start arguing with him about prospects. He more prospect batty than I am. Reddick will not be a power hitter' date=' IMO. And a power hitter to me is someone with 30+HR power. But I think he could safely hover around the .800OPS mark in CF, which most any team would love to have. The problem is, Reddick is blocked by Jacoby and I doubt that he'll hit enough to start at the corners for Boston. I bet he's a starting CFer for some team come 2011.[/quote']

 

Unless Jacoby gets traded, which is a possibility.