The Yankees 2009 lineup vs. the 2010 lineup

[yankees228]

While a thread exists about an expected Yankees' offensive regression, it hasn't been posted in for awhile, and to spark some discussion in the middle of January, I figured I would start a separate thread. I hope none of the moderators have an issue with this, and if it's a big deal, feel free to merge it.

 

Now that I have a bit of time, lets take a look at how the 2010 lineup compares to the 2009 lineup, going spot by spot. While it's an impossibility, I'll assume that everyone stays relatively healthy, because we simply aren't able to accurately predict injuries. For example, one might say that you cannot expect Nick Johnson to stay healthy, but someone else could say that by he's prone to the freak injury, and only playing DH will dramatically decrease the odds of that occurring. Both are valid arguments, and we just don't know, so we'll look at the lineup from a healthy perspective...

 

1)

 

2009 - Derek Jeter

2010 - Derek Jeter

 

I think a regression here is quite likely. He's coming off an unexpected career year, and while he's likely to remain productive in 2010, I don't see him replicating a .334/.406/.465 slash line.

 

2)

 

2009 - Johnny Damon

2010 - Nick Johnson

 

If Johnson can stay healthy, I don't think they'll see a drop off from the number two spot in the lineup. NYS is likely to improve Johnson's power numbers, and even if they don't reach Damon's (which is likely), he'll make up for it by getting on base more often than Damon did. I think the production will be relatively similar, and I think Johnson has a shot to be even better than Damon was. Also, it should be noted that Johnson, unlike Damon, won't be able to play the nine games in NL ballparks.

 

3)

 

2009 - Mark Teixeira

2010 - Mark Teixeira

 

Anything is possible, but more than likely (and especially if he benefits from a full season of A-Rod behind him) we'll see similar production from out of the three spot.

 

4)

 

2009 - Alex Rodriguez (with a little Cody Ransom/Ramiro Pena thrown in)

2010 - Alex Rodriguez

 

If A-Rod stays healthy, the Yankees should get more production out of the cleanup spot in 2010 than they did in 2009, considering A-Rod missed the first 28 games last year and clearly wasn't healthy for awhile after coming back.

 

5)

 

2009 - Hideki Matsui

2010 - Curtis Granderson

 

The fifth spot in this lineup is really a mystery. Granderson will likely match Matsui's home run total from last year, but how much he gets on base is a mystery. It will probably be a bit worse, but if Granderson can rebound from last year, which isn't unrealistic, he could come fairly close. Granderson will also be able to play the nine games in NL ballparks and will never have to be removed for a pinch runner late in the game. Granderson will also be able to do much more once he gets on base than Matsui was able to do.

 

6)

 

2009 - Jorge Posada

2010 - Jorge Posada

 

Posada had one of the better years of his career last year, and he's getting up in age, which probably puts him in a similar boat as Jeter. He might regress some, but if he stays healthy, and the Yankees give him the appropriate amount of rest, I don't expect the drop off to be too severe.

 

7)

 

2009 - Robinson Cano

2010 - Robinson Cano

 

Like Granderson, Cano is a mystery. Coming off a bad 2008 season, he was very good last year, and his ridiculous splits with RISP should even out a bit this year. I don't expect him to regress much, and an improvement is possible. It wouldn't shock me if Cano is hitting fifth at some point in 2010.

 

8)

 

2009 - Nick Swisher

2010 - Nick Swisher

 

Coming off a career year, Swisher's overall numbers are likely to drop a bit, but while his road numbers are unsustainable, he should see a significant improvement in his home numbers. Again, a regression is probable, but with his splits evening out, it shouldn't be too severe.

 

9)

 

2009 - Melky Cabrera/Brett Gardner

2010 - Brett Gardner/possible a RHH

 

I think they should see a slight improvement here. Gardner's numbers weren't that far behind Cabrera's last year, and with more playing time, he might be able to work his way closer to a 100 OPS+. Also, when you consider what Gardner does on the base paths, and the possibility that they'll have a lefty/righty platoon out of this spot, an improvement is probably likely. At the very least, the production should be similar.

 

So to recap...

 

1) Probably a regression.

2) Similar.

3) Similar.

4) Improvement.

5) Probably a regression in the on base department, but when you consider the difference between the two players on the bases, and Granderson's potential, similar production (or even an increase in production) is possible.

6) If used correctly, probably only a slight regression.

7) Anything is possible out of this spot, but a slight improvement wouldn't shock me.

8) Probably a regression.

9) Probably a slight improvement.

 

Overall, I would say this lineup is built to produce in a similar fashion as last year's lineup.

 

It should be noted that there are obvious factors that could change this. Among those are injuries and the return of Johnny Damon.

[Keeper]

Unbiased analysis and sound logic. Good breakdown.

[Dipre]

Only gripe i have with it is that i like Posada hitting 5th.

 

He's much more of a certainty than Granderson and has no real platoon weakness.

[yankees228]

Only gripe i have with it is that i like Posada hitting 5th.

 

He's much more of a certainty than Granderson and has no real platoon weakness.

 

That's fair, but I wasn't really suggesting a lineup, just laying out what I think the Yankees will do.

 

And Keeper, thanks, I appreciate it.

[Spudboy]

@Y228 Why are Swisher's road numbers unsustainable? I've seen this discussed before. I'd really like a better understanding of this. Also, why is there reason to expect an improvement at home?

[Spudboy]

Unbiased analysis and sound logic. Good breakdown.

 

Sorry for the double post. But I meant to say something like Keeper said!

[Dipre]

@Y228 Why are Swisher's road numbers unsustainable? I've seen this discussed before. I'd really like a better understanding of this. Also' date=' why is there reason to expect an improvement at home?[/quote']

 

Nick Swisher 2009 splits:

 

Home: .776 OPS.

 

Road: .945 OPS

 

When you take into context that:

 

A) A home-road split so defined is usually a fluke in itself.

 

B ) Unless the stadium is extremely hostile to hitters, home-road splits usually benefit home production.

 

C) Swisher was a Switchie who had the majority of his AB's lefty at Coors Field East.

 

D) His career home/road splits are basically even (.818/.817).

 

You can safely assume it's a fluke that will correct itself next year.

[Spudboy]

Nick Swisher 2009 splits:

 

Home: .776 OPS.

 

Road: .945 OPS

 

When you take into context that:

 

A) A home-road split so defined is usually a fluke in itself.

 

B ) Unless the stadium is extremely hostile to hitters, home-road splits usually benefit home production.

 

C) Swisher was a Switchie who had the majority of his AB's lefty at Coors Field East.

 

D) His career home/road splits are basically even (.818/.817).

 

You can safely assume it's a fluke that will correct itself next year.

 

Oh. Thank you.

[Emmz]

I think Nick Johnson's a downgrade personally, and he's played 140 games ones, and never broken the 150 barrier, while Johnny Damon has, essentially, never gone under 150 games in his career.

 

Johnson averages about 100, to Damon's 150, not to mention OPS+ says Damon's an upgrade even without health factors.

 

Matsui is substantially better in OPS+ than Granderson. Matsui's OPS+ has been around 130, while Granderson has been declining in each of the past few seasons. I don't expect him to continue to decline, but it's a trend nonetheless. I'd say he probably improves on last season, but will he improve to what Matsui did? Doubtful. He plays better defense though, and overall, I guess I'd say it's pretty even.

[Keeper]

Granderson has played 4 full seasons. In 2 of those seasons, he's had a better OPS+ than Matsui. He's also been more durable the last 4 seasons. Like I said before, hard to say he's an upgrade or a downgrade offensively. We'll have to see how it plays out.

[Imperial59]

Granderson has played 4 full seasons. In 2 of those seasons' date=' he's had a better OPS+ than Matsui. He's also been more durable the last 4 seasons. Like I said before, hard to say he's an upgrade or a downgrade offensively. We'll have to see how it plays out.[/quote']

 

This isn't a debate about which one is the better player. It's a debate about how Granderson's offense next year will compare to Matsui's last year. And the chances of Granderson, a career 113 OPS+ hitter, replacing Matsui's 131 OPS+ last year aren't very good. Granderson's only had one year of his career in which he produced at a 130+ OPS+ and I think it's safe to say that it was somewhat of a fluke considering he had a .362 BABIP and he's never had a similar season.

[Imperial59]

There's really only a major dropoff at the 5th spot, where the Yankees will lose 15-20 points of OPS+. But they'll gain some offense if A-Rod is healthier next year as well. They'll probably see some minor regression from a handful of other players (Jeter, Posada, Swisher) as well. Overall, they'll still be a great offense but probably not as good as they were last year.

[yankees228]

There's really only a major dropoff at the 5th spot' date=' where the Yankees will lose 15-20 points of OPS+. But they'll gain some offense if A-Rod is healthier next year as well. They'll probably see some minor regression from a handful of other players (Jeter, Posada, Swisher) as well. Overall, they'll still be a great offense but probably not as good as they were last year.[/quote']

 

They'll likely lose those OPS+ points, but Granderson will also be able to do more than Matsui on the base paths, and will never need to be taken out of the game late. Granted, as I mentioned in the initial post, I expect a regression out of that spot, but not a huge one.

 

Now, while they'll likely see minor regressions from the three players you listed, I think it's possible that we'll see minor improvements from the seven and nine spots in the lineup.

[yankees228]

I think Nick Johnson's a downgrade personally, and he's played 140 games ones, and never broken the 150 barrier, while Johnny Damon has, essentially, never gone under 150 games in his career.

 

Johnson averages about 100, to Damon's 150, not to mention OPS+ says Damon's an upgrade even without health factors.

 

Matsui is substantially better in OPS+ than Granderson. Matsui's OPS+ has been around 130, while Granderson has been declining in each of the past few seasons. I don't expect him to continue to decline, but it's a trend nonetheless. I'd say he probably improves on last season, but will he improve to what Matsui did? Doubtful. He plays better defense though, and overall, I guess I'd say it's pretty even.

 

Well, again, I mentioned that I'm not taking injuries into account, because they're impossible to predict. While Johnson has suffered an injury plagued career, you would have to admit that many of them are of a freakish nature, and the chances of that are significantly less when you consider the fact that he's not going to be playing the field this year.

 

As for their overall production, Johnson will probably have a better OBP in 2010 than Damon did in 2009, and while I don't expect Johnson's power numbers to be the same as Damon's, they should increase at NYS.

[Imperial59]

I think it's possible that we'll see minor improvements from the seven and nine spots in the lineup.

 

Anything's possible. It's possible they could score 2,000 runs next year. But I think it's highly improbable that they see improvement from 7 spots in the lineup.

[yankees228]

Anything's possible. It's possible they could score 2' date='000 runs next year. But I think it's highly improbable that they see improvement from 7 spots in the lineup.[/quote']

 

I think you misinterpreted what I was saying. I think there's a decent chance they see improvement from the number seven spot and the number nine spot in the lineup, not seven of the spots in the lineup.

[a700hitter]

I still think the Yanks will sign Damon. They are looking to get him on the cheap, and they might get him at a very reasonable rate.

[jacksonianmarch]

Adding Damon back to this lineup would make this one of the best lineups ever IMO

[Imperial59]

I think you misinterpreted what I was saying. I think there's a decent chance they see improvement from the number seven spot and the number nine spot in the lineup' date=' not seven of the spots in the lineup.[/quote']

 

You had Cano in the 7th spot. You think there's a decent chance he improves on last year, even though it was a career best OPS+ for him?

[Imperial59]

Adding Damon back to this lineup would make this one of the best lineups ever IMO

 

I just don't know how the Yankees will overcome such a "massive dropoff" in offense going from Matsui to Granderson

[yankees228]

You had Cano in the 7th spot. You think there's a decent chance he improves on last year' date=' even though it was a career best OPS+ for him?[/quote']

 

Certainly a better chance than them scoring 2,000 runs.

 

In all seriousness, yes, I do think there's a decent chance. There are a couple things to consider. Cano has a ton of potential talent, and he's entering his prime, so it's not unrealistic to think that his numbers will improve. Also, if his RISP splits just even out, he will help the Yankees more in 2010 than he did in 2009.

[Imperial59]

Certainly a better chance than them scoring 2,000 runs.

 

In all seriousness, yes, I do think there's a decent chance. There are a couple things to consider. Cano has a ton of potential talent, and he's entering his prime, so it's not unrealistic to think that his numbers will improve. Also, if his RISP splits just even out, he will help the Yankees more in 2010 than he did in 2009.

 

Certainly a better chance than scoring 2,000 runs, I'll give you that

 

Cano will be 27 next year, which is the typical prime of a player's career. But most players don't put up back-to-back career years. Statistically, whenever someone has a career year, they're a pretty safe bet for regression. Cano had a .326 BABIP last year as well. Correct me if I'm wrong but I don't see any statistical reason to expect improvement next year.

 

As for his RISP splits evening out, it's probably more likely that his .376/.407/.609 line without runners on base evens out, considering that's a much larger outlier from his career averages. I don't buy the "their splits will even out" arguments about Cano and Swisher. A full season is the greatest sample size possible and it's not like these guys were hitting in an extreme pitcher's park. Maybe the splits won't be so dramatic, or they'll reverse. But just because a guy hit really badly with RISP or at home, doesn't mean their overall batting performance is going to improve the next year.

[yankees228]

Certainly a better chance than scoring 2,000 runs, I'll give you that

 

Cano will be 27 next year, which is the typical prime of a player's career. But most players don't put up back-to-back career years. Statistically, whenever someone has a career year, they're a pretty safe bet for regression. Cano had a .326 BABIP last year, I don't see any statistical reason to expect improvement next year.

 

As for his RISP splits evening out, it's probably more likely that his .376/.407/.609 line without runners on base evens out, considering that's a much larger outlier from his career averages. I don't buy the "their splits will even out" arguments about Cano and Swisher. A full season is the greatest sample size possible and it's not like these guys were hitting in an extreme pitcher's park. Maybe the splits won't be so dramatic, or they'll reverse. But just because a guy hit really badly with RISP or at home, doesn't mean their overall batting performance is going to improve the next year.

 

It would simply be Cano's natural progression as a hitter. If he learns to be more patience, I believe his overall numbers (especially his power numbers) can improve. From a statistical, I would agree, there isn't reason to expect an improvement.

 

As for splits evening out I think his fantastic numbers without runners on base will regress, while his awful numbers with RISP will improve (especially if he develops that patience I alluded to).

 

In Swisher's case, for all the reasons Dipre mentioned on the first page, I believe his splits will normalize. However, I admitted that we'll likely see an overall regression from Swisher offensively.

[Imperial59]

It would simply be Cano's natural progression as a hitter. If he learns to be more patience' date=' I believe his overall numbers (especially his power numbers) can improve. From a statistical, I would agree, there isn't reason to expect an improvement.[/quote']

 

There's no prototype for a natural progression for a hitter. Typically, they go up and down but their average effectiveness improves from ages 27-33. Can is coming off a career year though so the two probably average out. And Cano also broke into the majors earlier than most position players so I don't think added experience is as much as a factor as it is for most player.

[yankees228]

There's no prototype for a natural progression for a hitter. Typically' date=' they go up and down but their average effectiveness improves from ages 27-33. Can is coming off a career year though so the two probably average out. And Cano also broke into the majors earlier than most position players so I don't think added experience is as much as a factor as it is for most player.[/quote']

 

I realize that him improving due to natural progression isn't a statistically supported argument, and it's based in nothing more than theory.

 

When I look at Cano, I see an extremely talented hitter, who is already effective, yet still struggles at various important things. With an increased work ethic and some maturity (both of which I'm just hoping for), his patience might increase, possibly making him into an even more effective hitter. We'll see how it goes.

[yankees228]

Also, as I noted in the initial post, with Cano, anything is possible (meaning he could also regress).

[Imperial59]

I realize that him improving due to natural progression isn't a statistically supported argument, and it's based in nothing more than theory.

 

When I look at Cano, I see an extremely talented hitter, who is already effective, yet still struggles at various important things. With an increased work ethic and some maturity (both of which I'm just hoping for), his patience might increase, possibly making him into an even more effective hitter. We'll see how it goes.

 

Yeah, but couldn't the same thing be said about any young, talented player? Ellsbury had a .389 OBP in the minors which he's never lived up to in the majors. He's even younger than Cano and he isn't coming off a career year. Wouldn't be a better bet to improve?

 

Pedroia will be nearing his prime years and he's coming off a down year by his standards, Would you say that he's a likely candidate to improve offensively?

 

I try to keep it objective. If I wouldn't say one thing about a Red Sox player (notice I've never said that Ellsbury or Pedroia have a good chance of improving) then I wouldn't say it about a similar Yankees player like Cano. What's fair is fair.

[yankees228]

Yeah, but couldn't the same thing be said about any young, talented player? Ellsbury had a .389 OBP in the minors which he's never lived up to in the majors. He's even younger than Cano and he isn't coming off a career year. Wouldn't be a better bet to improve?

 

Pedroia will be nearing his prime years and he's coming off a down year by his standards, Would you say that he's a likely candidate to improve offensively?

 

I try to keep it objective. If I wouldn't say one thing about a Red Sox player (notice I've never said that Ellsbury or Pedroia have a good chance of improving) then I wouldn't say it about a similar Yankees player like Cano. What's fair is fair.

 

Maybe I overstated the possibility when I said, "decent chance". I'll go back to what I said in my initial post, that his production should be relatively similar, but if he begins to hit with RISP, he might be elevated to the fifth spot in the lineup.

[Keeper]

Cano has unrealized potential. He is definitely capable of having a better season, especially now that he's entering his prime.

[Dipre]

Cano has unrealized potential. He is definitely capable of having a better season' date=' especially now that he's entering his prime.[/quote']

 

The problem is that he's also capable of getting distracted by nearby butterflies and sucking ass. You never know what to expect of him. Million-dollar body, ten-cent head.