Thoughts on Adrian Beltre?

[Imperial59]

I know that ERA isn't the most valid stat to compare pitchers' date=' but in the end, it's what really matters, and Vasquez will have an ERA around 4.50 this season. Jacko, any others, you can quote this.[/quote']

 

That's a pretty safe bet. His career ERA in the AL is over 4.50.

[Imperial59]

The sox do have some players coming off the books, but it isnt like they're gonna stay under the cap. Look at this...

 

Victor Martinez- 7 million. This frees up the catcher spot. Even if they maintain status quo and resign Victor, they are looking at 3-5 million more in AAV to keep him. Then there's the possibility that they sign Mauer, and that might be a 13 million or more AAV increase from this spot.

 

Jason Varitek- 3 million. This money is likely dead weight. But it might not be. If they sign Mauer, then they probably go with a backup who is cheap, but if they resign Martinez, then they might need to spend a couple mil to have a quality backup since Martinez is on the wrong side of thirty.

 

Julio Lugo- 9 million. This is truly dead weight and will be off the books.

 

Mike Lowell- 12 million. This really is a question anyways since Lowell may be gone and Beltre may be coming in.

 

David Ortiz- 12 million. He does have an option and depending on his season, they might pick it up. But I do find that hard to believe.

 

Josh Beckett- 10 million. This opens up the #2 spot in the rotation and the sox are said to be actively trying to resign him.

 

That's a total of....

53 million dollars. And right now, the sox are set at 168 million, which is 10 million below the 2011 predicted cap of 178 million. But, lets look at the holes opened with such a deal.

 

Catcher spot

Backup catcher spot

Third base

Designated hitter

#2 starter

 

Lets say that the sox resign Victor Martinez for an AAV of $12 million. That seems pretty reasonable. Then they sign a Jose Molina clone for 2 yrs and 4 million total. Between Varitek and Martinez and the new backup catcher, the overall cost is $14 million AAV.

 

Then, lets say the sox sign Beltre this offseason for $9 million AAV.

 

Lets say the sox renegotiate with Papi since he is such a Boston staple and get him on the cheap at $8 million for 2011.

 

Lets say the sox pony up the big bucks and re-sign Beckett to a deal surpassing Lackey's. Lets say 5yrs 90 million.

 

That brings the total AAV to $51 million, which is about $12 million below the projected cap. Then consider arbitration increases to Jacoby Ellsbury, Ramon Ramirez, Hideki Okajima, and the possibility that Buchholz qualifies as a super 2. You might be talking about $10 million or so right there. So, even if the sox do nothing but stay internal aside from Beltre, you are talking about being right on the borderline. If they go out and sign Mauer, which they very well might do, then all of this goes out the window.

 

You're right, there's no way the Sox could remain competitive without adding over $50 million in salary next year

 

But then again, you're always right Jacko. We respect your opinions so much and wait in anticipation of your next post on how Brett Gardner is better than Jacoby Ellsbury.

[Dipre]

You're right, there's no way the Sox could remain competitive without adding over $50 million in salary next year

 

But then again, you're always right Jacko. We respect your opinions so much and wait in anticipation of your next post on how Brett Gardner is better than Jacoby Ellsbury.

 

I really doubt the Sox are as dead-set to stay below the cap as he says. I also doubt their inability to do all of that while remaining under the cap.

[drock]

This guy had his best year on ROIDS . Has been complete bust in Seattle . never would make it in Boston . Warrning stay away .

[Dipre]

This guy had his best year on ROIDS . Has been complete bust in Seattle . never would make it in Boston . Warrning stay away .

 

Stadium,stats,defense. All in Beltre's favor.

[jacksonianmarch]

You're right, there's no way the Sox could remain competitive without adding over $50 million in salary next year

 

But then again, you're always right Jacko. We respect your opinions so much and wait in anticipation of your next post on how Brett Gardner is better than Jacoby Ellsbury.

 

Solid work not answering the question. Mostly because I am right. The sox may be shedding 50 million in payroll, but they are clearing out their #2 spot in the rotation, their DH, their 3B, and their catcher's position. And, there arent any internal candidates waiting to take the reins at either position

[BSN07]

Solid work not answering the question. Mostly because I am right. The sox may be shedding 50 million in payroll' date=' but they are clearing out their #2 spot in the rotation, their DH, their 3B, and their catcher's position. And, there arent any internal candidates waiting to take the reins at either position[/quote']

 

It all depends on if they re-sign Beckett and Martinez.

 

By my count the Sox have 67.5M of ML roster money coming off the books next off season.

 

Beckett 12M

V-Mart 7M

Ortiz 12.5M

Lowell 12M

Lugo 9M

Papelbon 10M(assuming he gets 3M raise in arb)

Varitek 3M

 

and they save 2M on Wakefield's deal as it goes from 3.5 to 1.5.

 

Beckett 15-16M AAV(Lackey/AJ type deal)

V-Mart 12M AAV (per Jacko, which is a reasonable figure to throw out there for this discussion).

 

That leaves roughly 40M to find a 3B(1B,C)/DH/CL/Back up catcher and arb cases.

 

I think they will be ok. The Sox could stay in house for a CL and back up catcher if there wasn't anyone worth it out there. DH's come pretty cheap on one year deals these days.

 

3B(1B,C) will probably be their biggest expenditure next off season. But most likely be the only really big one they will have to make. If Beckett and V-Mart are re-signed.

[jacksonianmarch]

You really think they deal Papelbon away?

[BSN07]

His entering his six year. He's a FA I believe at the end of the year. I could be wrong though.

[Dipre]

You really think they deal Papelbon away?

 

They don't deal him, he gets 13 million through arb, and that leaves round 27 million to fill the rest of the needs.

[Dipre]

His entering his six year. He's a FA I believe at the end of the year.

 

Nope.

[BSN07]

Nope.

 

Oh ok. Thanks. Well like you said Papelbon gets 13M and the Sox have 27M to play with. Or they trade him and have 40M to play with.

 

And yes Jacko I wouldn't be surprised if the Sox shopped Papelbon. Especially if Bard has a break out season.

[Dipre]

Oh ok. Thanks. Well like you said Papelbon gets 13M and the Sox have 27M to play with. Or they trade him and have 40M to play with.

 

And yes Jacko I wouldn't be surprised if the Sox shopped Papelbon. Especially if Bard has a break out season.

 

They might shop him, but at his price, he wouldn't fetch much. Papelbon is more valuable to the Red Sox than any other club unless the Sox were to deal him to a desperate club mid-season a la Heathcliff Slocumb.

[jacksonianmarch]

Regardless, the rumor mill for next yr seems to center on the sox and yankees spending big. I can tell you right now that there is a strong likelihood that the sox spend more than is coming off their payroll next yr. Especially is NY decides to pass on Mauer and the sox go for the 20 mil AAV pricetag

[Dipre]

Regardless' date=' the rumor mill for next yr seems to center on the sox and yankees spending big. I can tell you right now that there is a strong likelihood that the sox spend more than is coming off their payroll next yr. Especially is NY decides to pass on Mauer and the sox go for the 20 mil AAV pricetag[/quote']

 

Well if they do, they did. You're the one saying they're reluctant to go over the luxury tax. The same "rumor mill" you're quoting contradicts your initial premise.

[BSN07]

Regardless' date=' the rumor mill for next yr seems to center on the sox and yankees spending big. I can tell you right now that there is a strong likelihood that the sox spend more than is coming off their payroll next yr. Especially is NY decides to pass on Mauer and the sox go for the 20 mil AAV pricetag[/quote']

 

Well if they do' date=' they did. You're the one saying they're reluctant to go over the luxury tax. The same "rumor mill" you're quoting contradicts your initial premise.[/quote']

 

Actually I think they are trying at all costs to stay under this season because they know there is a likelihood they will be going over next season. And the penalty for the 2nd year of being over is like 40% or something. I think that is the number they are trying to avoid.

[Dipre]

Actually I think they are trying at all costs to stay under this season because they know there is a likelihood they will be going over next season. And the penalty for the 2nd year of being over is like 40% or something. I think that is the number they are trying to avoid.

 

"Trying" doesn't mean "absolutely reluctant".

 

Remember, they were contemplating going way over tax threshold to sign Bay.

[jacksonianmarch]

http://www.overthemonster.com/2009/12/22/1212797/lets-talk-about-luxury-tax

[BSN07]

"Trying" doesn't mean "absolutely reluctant".

 

Remember, they were contemplating going way over tax threshold to sign Bay.

 

No I know they could go over the threshold for the right deal. I don't think and obviously they didn't either that Bay was a player in which they should do this for. Mauer on the other hand probably is.

[Dipre]

http://www.overthemonster.com/2009/12/22/1212797/lets-talk-about-luxury-tax

 

*Sigh*.

 

Dude, no one is saying they're not trying to stay under the luxury tax, but they were contemplating going above it for Bay, and will probably go above it if the right deal comes along.

 

Jesus Christ.

[Dipre]

No I know they could go over the threshold for the right deal. I don't think and obviously they didn't either that Bay was a player in which they should do this for. Mauer on the other hand probably is.

 

I firmly believe they called it right on Bay.

[Imperial59]

Solid work not answering the question. Mostly because I am right. The sox may be shedding 50 million in payroll' date=' but they are clearing out their #2 spot in the rotation, their DH, their 3B, and their catcher's position. And, there arent any internal candidates waiting to take the reins at either position[/quote']

 

Yes, I must have avoided the "question" because I know you're right, not at all because nowhere in your post did you ask a question. Solid reasoning, as always, Jacko.

 

We're talking next year's offseason and you're acting like everything is set in stone already. It's certainly possible that the Sox remain competitive without spending over $50 million next year. Even if your simulation where you overpaid for many players, you said yourself that the Sox were still under the cap. The Sox could easily get a DH for less than $8 million, or they could trade many of their arb eligible players and they're well under the cap. Now that wasn't so hard, was it?

[BSN07]

I firmly believe they called it right on Bay.

 

As do I.

 

Que the "Dipre and BSN" boyfriend comments...

[Tyler Durden]

 

Source: Red Sox not a front-runner and not currently in mix at all for free agent 3B Adrian Beltre

[Dojji]

Woo!

 

Sorry. Just don't want the guy.

[Tyler Durden]

 

Adrian Beltre's choosing between 3 teams. 1 is Boston, another may be Oakland. The 3rd? Minnesota? St. Louis? Not positive.

[rhet]

I vote for Michael Silverman.

[Dipre]

Woo!

 

Sorry. Just don't want the guy.

 

You'd rather have Adam LaRoche.

 

Give me Beltre every day of the week and twice on Sundays.

 

Give me LaRoche only if the other option is Kotchman.

[SoxSport]

The conflicting media reports make it impossible to tell how serious the Red Sox' interest in Beltre is.

 

You just don't know whether they value Beltre's defense enough to offset his hitting--which should rebound some in 2010. And how much they are willing to pay. You also don't know if they will deal with Boras.

 

As for this luxury tax talk, I don't know if Beltre would impact that, and they have so much money coming off the books next year that it isn't a problem long term. Rosenthal at Foxsports has a column today where he lumps the Red Sox and the Yankees as the big spenders. And then has a couple of more free agents going to the Mets. Just an effort, maybe, to take the heat off the Yankees.

 

The Yankees are in a class by themselves when it comes to spending. Money simply isn't a factor--any semblence of fiscal restraint is pure window dressing. They spend when they feel they have to. And they can outbid any team for any player.

 

If there is any other team close, it would be the Mets. They have to compete for fans in NY, and they also have their own cable channel. Wilpon still isn't out of the legal woods with the Madoff scandal, but that doesn't seem to have stopped their spending. No other market can compete with NY.

 

The Red Sox? They have the highest ticket prices in baseball just to stay competitive in the AL East. If it weren't for having to compete with the Yankees, their budget and their ticket prices might be closer to half what it is. Big spending plus good management keeps them competitive--but it is tough.

[Dipre]

I vote for Michael Silverman.

 

Dude, you're like the Trix rabbit......