Will Beckett be in Boston past 2010?

[TheMino007]

e have had 4 full seasons of Beckett and one has to wonder if next season will be his last in Boston. He will be 30 next season and probably will be looking for one final 4-5 year contract. While the durability issues have mostly gone away (at least arm wise), one has to wonder if we are looking at Beckett morphing into a #2 versus a #1. I know he can dominate any lineup and still has #1 stuff over stretches but 3 out of his 4 years in the AL has seen ERAs of 5.01, 4.03 and 3.86. I will willing to throw out 2006 as the AL learning curve. But he was basically average in 2008 and he was much better in 2009 but fell off the cliff late summer. I realize all pitchers go through slumps but when Beckett is bad, he is real bad seems to struggle for 3 or 4 games. The guy always seems to get hurt down the stretch run of the season and into the playoffs. We talk about how great a playoff pitcher he is, but he hasn't looked that great in the past two postseasons. I personally love the guy and would love seeing him in Boston for the next 5+ years but I am not sure he is worth anything more than $60M for 4 years. I think the Sox will offer him an attractive contract extension but at the end of the day he gets an offer he can't refuse from someone like the Mets. A lot of this hinges on the development on Buchholz. If he can develop into a solid 2, the I don't see the return of Beckett. The Sox will still have a good nucleus of Lester, Buchholz, (King Felix, one can dream), Throw in Dice-K and maybe Kelly or Tazawa and that is a pretty good rotation.

[Spudboy]

Lol.

 

Sign him.

[BigPapiEnFuego]

Come back November 3, 2010 and ask. Now is too early.

[a700hitter]

Lester, Buchholz, Dice K and Tazawa is not a good rotation. Unless Beckett can be replaced with a top tier pitcher, he should be re-signed.

[example1]

Lester' date=' Buchholz, Dice K and Tazawa is not a good rotation. Unless Beckett can be replaced with a top tier pitcher, he should be re-signed.[/quote']

 

I have no reason to suspect that the Sox will go with the above shitstorm.

 

I agree with you completely, thought I think exploring a deal for Roy Halladay would be worth it and they could attempt to resign him instead of Beckett. He's a better pitcher than Beckett and would probably be a better way to spend the money.

 

It was interesting, Schilling was on The Big Show on WEEI last week. When given the choice of Cliff Lee, Felix Hernandez and Roy Halladay (as maybe the Sox had at last year's deadline) to add to the rotation he didn't even hesitate. Roy Halladay. Dude is a complete horse, eats innings, throws strikes early, shuts teams down and doesn't rely on K's to dominate.

 

It was a provokative interview. Schilling certainly knows his stuff.

 

He talked about the myth of first pitch strikes, and noted that rather than looking at first pitch strikes, people should look at 3rd pitch strikes. In other words, we all know from Moneyball that the pitch that makes the biggest difference in terms of leverage in an AB is the 1-1 pitch. A pitcher who can get to 1-2 rather than 2-1, or 3-0 will be markedly more dominant and will keep pitch counts down.

 

So it isn't about first pitch strikes, its about first or second pitch strikes to get at the very least to 1-1, the moneyball.

[jacksonianmarch]

Halladay is not a good play for Boston IMO, especially if they have any care to resign Beckett. If the hope is to get Halladay and sign him long term while letting Beckett go, then so be it. I think Beckett is gone after 2010. He's going to look for top dollar. Some team will pay him top dollar. I just dont think it will be Boston

[Dipre]

Table.

[BSN07]

If the Sox get a young ace I could see them letting him walk after 2010. I love the guy to and he's one of my all time favorites(I had the oppurtunity to get him pitch a lot in the minors), but the above mentioned concerns have some merit. If he will sign for AJ(who he compares a little more too, Beckett having more playoff experience) money instead of CC/Santana money then maybe he's back. But I would imagine someone from his home state of Texas will make a very big push for him. I can honestly see Texas giving him 5 yrs 100M at least. Especially since they are competitive now and Millwood is gone after next season.

[Dipre]

If the Sox get a young ace I could see them letting him walk after 2010. I love the guy to and he's one of my all time favorites(I had the oppurtunity to get him pitch a lot in the minors)' date=' but the above mentioned concerns have some merit. If he will sign for AJ(who he compares a little more too, Beckett having more playoff experience) money instead of CC/Santana money then maybe he's back. But I would imagine someone from his home state of Texas will make a very big push for him. I can honestly see Texas giving him 5 yrs 100M at least. Especially since they are competitive now and Millwood is gone after next season.[/quote']

 

That's an if the size of Texas. Young aces don't grow on trees.

[BSN07]

That's an if the size of Texas. Young aces don't grow on trees.

 

Well yes of course it's a big if.

 

I wasn't trying to suggest they do grow on trees. That would be ridiculous. The branches would never hold the wait

 

I know Young Aces aren't readily available, but you never know who could be available for the right package.

 

The whole Beckett topic is an interesting one. The Sox could extend him this off season, they could trade him possibly in a block buster, or they could just ride him out until the end of the year, offer him a deal and if it's not enough let him walk. Should make for an interesting storyline.

[Mr Crunchy]

He'll be elsewhere in 2010, the guys got a 4 era including the playoffs while pitching here.

3 of his 4 years he hasnt carried us, the year he did carry us we won it all.

His next season will be fabulous then he will walk away a hero and we will have someone from Portland cued in to replace him.

[Dojji]

The only reason Beckett moves on is if his demands are unreasonable, and I don't see that happening.

 

There is no reason whatsoever to "move on" from Beckett.

[TheMino007]

If he accepts a home town discount of sorts and is willing to sign an extension, which I believe the Sox are talking to him about right now, I would love to have him back. But is Josh Beckett worth 20 mill a year? For a guy who when healthy is a top 5 pitcher in the AL? Yes. But that is not always the case, Beckett always seems to be hurt at the worst times and over the last two years we haven't really been able to rely on our ace in the playoffs. IF we trade for a Halladay or a Felix Hernandez and have them locked up for years to go along with the others guys in the rotation, I could see Beckett leaving. He could go out and find top dollar else where.

[jacksonianmarch]

WEEI is already reporting that Beckett isnt likely to take a home town discount.

[Dipre]

WEEI is already reporting that Beckett isnt likely to take a home town discount.

 

He doesn't need to take one.

 

The Sox have the money, and if he pitches well next year, it's a no-brainer.

[BSN07]

WEEI is already reporting that Beckett isnt likely to take a home town discount.

 

What?!?! You mean he didn't come out and give all his leverage away by saying " I would be willing to take a home town discount to stay in Boston? That's insanity...

 

WTF Jacko really? What the hell do you expect him/his agent to say? <_>

 

I'll throw this out there, depending on how negotiations go, and who else is brought in, if the Sox can't get a deal done we might see Beckett shopped for the right deal. I figure it's only fair to bring up this point because most of us bring up certain players as trade bait when they are in the final year(s) of their deal and haven't reached an extension yet.

[jacksonianmarch]

I would find it INCREDIBLY tough for the sox to part with Beckett for 2010. The sox are still a team that is likely to make the playoffs assuming they fill their holes adequately this offseason. Dealing away Beckett in what would amount to a prospect grab would be incredibly disheartening for sox fans in general. And in this market, that would be construed as forfeiting a season, which would do a lot to alienate the FO.

[Dipre]

What?!?! You mean he didn't come out and give all his leverage away by saying " I would be willing to take a home town discount to stay in Boston? That's insanity...

 

WTF Jacko really? What the hell do you expect him/his agent to say? <_>

 

I'll throw this out there, depending on how negotiations go, and who else is brought in, if the Sox can't get a deal done we might see Beckett shopped for the right deal. I figure it's only fair to bring up this point because most of us bring up certain players as trade bait when they are in the final year(s) of their deal and haven't reached an extension yet.

 

Why in the blue hell would the Sox shop Beckett?

 

We're not the Royals. Stop that.

[jacksonianmarch]

exactly

[BSN07]

What?!?! You mean he didn't come out and give all his leverage away by saying " I would be willing to take a home town discount to stay in Boston? That's insanity...

 

WTF Jacko really? What the hell do you expect him/his agent to say? <_>

 

I'll throw this out there, depending on how negotiations go, and who else is brought in, if the Sox can't get a deal done we might see Beckett shopped for the right deal. I figure it's only fair to bring up this point because most of us bring up certain players as trade bait when they are in the final year(s) of their deal and haven't reached an extension yet.

 

I would find it INCREDIBLY tough for the sox to part with Beckett for 2010. The sox are still a team that is likely to make the playoffs assuming they fill their holes adequately this offseason. Dealing away Beckett in what would amount to a prospect grab would be incredibly disheartening for sox fans in general. And in this market' date=' that would be construed as forfeiting a season, which would do a lot to alienate the FO.[/quote']

 

<_ i was really hoping wouldn have to spell it out for you but that what get be able put and together. didn say just trade beckett whatever or dump him a bunch of prospects. if the right player is brought hmmm like young sp replace haren felix whomever then could made available return.>

 

But obviously I just meant the Sox should mail it in next season and trade Beckett for a bucket of balls <_>

[example1]

Josh Beckett is probably a 5-6 WAR pitcher. Last year he ranked 15th among pitchers with 5.3 WAR. In 2008 he was 13th at 5.0. In 2007 he was 3rd with 6.5. He's has undoubtedly been one of the best 15 pitchers in baseball for the past 3 years.

 

Only 4 pitchers were among the MLB's top 15 pitchers in WAR each season for the past 3 years: Sabathia, Beckett, Halladay and Haren. Those other guys are probably the three most dominant in-prime starters in baseball right now. All four are big durable aces. All will probably last well into their mid-30s.

 

Beckett is a special pitcher who has the frame to age well IMO. It is always easy to see greener grass, but any team with Beckett on it will stand a good chance in any given game. He's got a team that can take care of him. I see no reason Beckett can't continue commanding his pitches and adapting as he ages like Schilling did. I have little doubt that Beckett will be hitting 95mph 4-5 years from now whether he's on the Red Sox or not. 35 year old Beckett will still be one of the hardest throwers around. He's just got that gift.

 

At his age it would be a huge risk to let him go, even at $20m to stay. Beckett has been a great team member and competitor. He will be a very nice veteran to have in the rotation, especially if he's able to slide back to #2 because there are better arms. In 3 years I imagine still being confident about Beckett pitching against just about every other team.

 

Fangraphs estimates that Beckett has been worth $73m over the last 3 years. $24m/yr.

 

Even if he regresses, his value will be close to $20m. I would think that a reasonable deal given the biggest AAV's in baseball for pitchers:

 

CC Sabathia, $23,000,000 (2009-15)

Johan Santana, $22,916,667 (2008-13)

Carlos Zambrano, $18,300,000 (2008-12)

Barry Zito, $18,000,000 (2007-13)

Jake Peavy, $17,333,333 (2010-12)

A.J. Burnett, $16,500,000 (2009-13)

Jason Schmidt, $15,666,667 (2007-09)

Derek Lowe, $15,000,000 (2009-12)

Roy Oswalt, $14,600,000 (2007-11)

Mark Buehrle, $14,000,000 (2008-11)

Roy Halladay, $13,333,333 (2008-10)

 

I think I would put Beckett as a 2010 FA (assuming they're thinking about resiging him now) near the top of that list, probably worthy of a better contract offer from Boston than Burnett got from NY, or Zambrano got from the Cubs. $19-20m/yr seems about right. Beckett's deal won't be as much about profit for the Sox as most FA's are. He'll be paid because it will immediately add elite depth to the rotation and can go a long way toward securing success for the Red Sox over that time.

[BSN07]

Josh Beckett is probably a 5-6 WAR pitcher. Last year he ranked 15th among pitchers with 5.3 WAR. In 2008 he was 13th at 5.0. In 2007 he was 3rd with 6.5. He's has undoubtedly been one of the best 15 pitchers in baseball for the past 3 years.

 

Only 4 pitchers were among the MLB's top 15 pitchers in WAR each season for the past 3 years: Sabathia, Beckett, Halladay and Haren. Those other guys are probably the three most dominant in-prime starters in baseball right now. All four are big durable aces. All will probably last well into their mid-30s.

 

Beckett is a special pitcher who has the frame to age well IMO. It is always easy to see greener grass, but any team with Beckett on it will stand a good chance in any given game. He's got a team that can take care of him. I see no reason Beckett can't continue commanding his pitches and adapting as he ages like Schilling did. I have little doubt that Beckett will be hitting 95mph 4-5 years from now whether he's on the Red Sox or not. 35 year old Beckett will still be one of the hardest throwers around. He's just got that gift.

 

At his age it would be a huge risk to let him go, even at $20m to stay. Beckett has been a great team member and competitor. He will be a very nice veteran to have in the rotation, especially if he's able to slide back to #2 because there are better arms. In 3 years I imagine still being confident about Beckett pitching against just about every other team.

 

Fangraphs estimates that Beckett has been worth $73m over the last 3 years. $24m/yr.

 

Even if he regresses, his value will be close to $20m. I would think that a reasonable deal given the biggest AAV's in baseball for pitchers:

 

CC Sabathia, $23,000,000 (2009-15)

Johan Santana, $22,916,667 (2008-13)

Carlos Zambrano, $18,300,000 (2008-12)

Barry Zito, $18,000,000 (2007-13)

Jake Peavy, $17,333,333 (2010-12)

A.J. Burnett, $16,500,000 (2009-13)

Jason Schmidt, $15,666,667 (2007-09)

Derek Lowe, $15,000,000 (2009-12)

Roy Oswalt, $14,600,000 (2007-11)

Mark Buehrle, $14,000,000 (2008-11)

Roy Halladay, $13,333,333 (2008-10)

 

I think I would put Beckett as a 2010 FA (assuming they're thinking about resiging him now) near the top of that list, probably worthy of a better contract offer from Boston than Burnett got from NY, or Zambrano got from the Cubs. $19-20m/yr seems about right. Beckett's deal won't be as much about profit for the Sox as most FA's are. He'll be paid because it will immediately add elite depth to the rotation and can go a long way toward securing success for the Red Sox over that time.

 

Listen if it's my personal choice the re-sign him. But if it's going to take a CC type contract to do it, I can see why some would be hesitant.

 

So let's play the "Comparable contract" game,

 

Player A(NL&AL)

(2001-2009)

106-68 3.79 ERA 228 games 1401.1 IP 1280 hits 641/590 R/ER 426 BB 1330 K 1.22 WHIP

 

Player B(NL&AL)

1999-2009)

100-85 3.84 ERA 244 Games 1583.1 IP 1392 Hits 744/676 R/ER 665 BB 1473 K 1.30 WHIP

 

Player C(NL)

2001-2009

105-68 3.51 ERA 259 games 1551.1 IP 1313 Hits 669/605 R/ER 698 BB 1324 K 1.30 WHIP

 

I would say those players are comparable. This would lead me to believe Becketts next contract will probably fall between 15-18M. Which I could get on board for.

 

 

Here's what I would offer,

 

2010- 11M,2011- 13M, 2012- 15.5M, 2013- 16.5M, 2014- 18.5M, Vesting option for 19.5M for 2015.

 

So it comes out to a 1M more on top of his original raise for 2010. Then 4 yrs 74.5M in extension money, with an obtainable option(or just guarantee it) of 19.5M, making the whole deal 5 years 94M, which is a fair deal IMO.

[TheMino007]

I like the deal in the above post. Until Beckett can pitch like a top pitcher in the league again and avoid stretches of injuries and 3 game stretches where he is absolutely terrible, he doesn't deserve to 20 mill/per year. If he goes out and has a monster year this year, like he did in 07, signing him to 4/74 won't seem that expensive.

[Mr Crunchy]

They'll keep him thru next October as we can expect the sox to be in the hunt and then he'll be off somewhere else. Y'all seem to forget that JD Drew is the highest paid player on this team at 14m and with 2 titles and playoff appearances in 6 of 7 years this team is in now into the money making phase of their operation. They're not paying a pitcher 20M with all the young arms they have, i dont see it happening anyway.

There are 19 different owners of this club I believe? And theyve sold out how many? 550xs in a row.

As business people why would they ever spend that kind of money when the Pink Hat contigent of sox nation is still paying 500.00 for 2 box seats and the park is jammed pack every night?

This team will be in the hunt for a long time as is due to the ton of young arms we possess.

The thought of them dropping 20M on a starter for 5 years isnt happening, they'll make a run at somebody to inspire cooler talk but they are not going to compete in a pissing contest with the desperate teams like the Cubs the Mets and ya, even Tom f***ing Hicks Texas Rangers.

Last year was the 1st time I didnt go to a game since I can remember and I wont be going again unless being held at gun point. I really didnt miss it as much as I thought I would either.

With 0 superstars, no real stud pitchers like Petey in his day and the highest prices for bleacher seats in America I'll watch them on tv until they give me a reason to go in.

The prices are already peaked, I couldve gotten RF grandstand seats for 80.00 a piece for game 3 vs Anaheim, in 2007 I paid 150.00 a piece to sit in the bleachers against Anaheim, the World Series game I attended went for 750.00 a yo...I took my son in a couple times in 08 but I felt used and abused without Manny being on the field and thats the last time I overpaid for tickets.

They'll be able to keep up the competetive edge due to the young pitching locked into contracts but dont expect these guys to go balls out and break the bank, theyre selling out win lose or draw for the next 3 years anyway.

[Lester82]

With 0 superstars, no real stud pitchers like Petey in his day and the highest prices for bleacher seats in America I'll watch them on tv until they give me a reason to go in.

 

Oh, brother...

 

 

 

*and by the way, outside of a Felix Hernandez or Roy Halladay, there's almost no one in baseball that is close to "a stud like Petey". In his prime, he was the ultimate showman and ace.

[TedWilliams101]

If the Sox FO cares more about winning than money, they will do what is necessary to sign him. If money is more important to them, well, we will continue to see the Yankees win the division and WS.

[Lester82]

* "Red Sox are cheap" ALERT

 

I wish the Red Sox could win the world series every year, so we don't have to hear these mysterious tales of them pocketing the money and not caring about winning.

[redsoxrules]

I know this isn't the right thread to post this but...

 

what date does free agency starts? is it 10 days after the WS ?

[Lester82]

15 days

 

(but players can officialy file for their free agency the day after the world series concludes.)

[Dojji]

There is no need to panic about Beckett. If this team doesn't tender him a very generous offer to stay in Boston I would be very much surprised. He hasn't been Pedro, but he's a legitimate franchise rotation leader and #1 pitcher.