Bay vs. Holliday

[jacksonianmarch]

Actually, name the players on this yrs team who were signed to too many yrs? As it turns out, the guys we gave big contracts to, on the whole, produced in their final seasons. Giambroids had his issues in the middle of the contract, but at the end, he was still good. Mussina was so good he was resigned. Matsui had trouble last yr with the knee, but this yr he is good enough to consider resigning. Damon was productive as well in what could be his best offensive season. Posada has proven halfway through his contract that he still has it. And Mo still has it for his. Jeter's contract was solid as he is finishing yr 9 of 10 in the MVP conversation. ARod is showing that he is worth the money at the beginning of his 10 yr deal even after hip surgery. Example, twist the truth if you want, but the yankees signings over the recent yrs have been solid. You can harken back to the deals given to RJ, Brown, and some others, but the guys on this team, on the whole, have earned their money.

[jacksonianmarch]

Per usual, they're screwed if they do and screwed if they don't.

 

Do: end up overpaying by probably at LEAST 1 year, possibly more, limit future flexibility and competitiveness. See: Lowell, Mike; Ortiz, David.

 

Don't: have huge hole in lineup, don't have adequate offensive production now.

 

Only one team can stomach having players on their roster for too many years who shouldn't be there...

 

Lets broaden this conversation a little bit. Lets say the sox lowball Bay and only go to 3yrs with a club option and then lose out on Holliday to the Yankees, where do they go? And if that is the case, how long will it take for them to recover?

[rhet]

Lets broaden this conversation a little bit. Lets say the sox lowball Bay and only go to 3yrs with a club option and then lose out on Holliday to the Yankees' date=' where do they go? And if that is the case, how long will it take for them to recover?[/quote']

 

Damon?

Abreu?

[jacksonianmarch]

Would you want Johnny Damon back? Especially seeing his home/away splits with NY? Abreu would be an interesting choice, but even though his numbers look good, check his trends. His OPS has dropped for 3 yrs in a row.

[BSN07]

Damon was signed to be the CF.

 

Posada had one good year, and one full of injury.

 

And let's not forget, all of these players have failed to bring back the one thing they were all signed to those big $ deals to achieve, a Championship(although I will admit, I don't see anyone beating them this season).

[rhet]

Would you want Johnny Damon back? Especially seeing his home/away splits with NY? Abreu would be an interesting choice' date=' but even though his numbers look good, check his trends. His OPS has dropped for 3 yrs in a row.[/quote']

 

It's slim pickens after Bay/Holiday. But a two year commitment to either Damon or Abreu isn't going to break the bank.

[jacksonianmarch]

He was signed to be the CF, you are right. Doesnt mean he hasnt lived up to his contract. And Posada had an injury in 2008, it was surgically repaired, and now he looks better than ever. Posada had his 4th best OPS of his career in 2009. And his arm looks like its back.

[example1]

Lets broaden this conversation a little bit. Lets say the sox lowball Bay and only go to 3yrs with a club option and then lose out on Holliday to the Yankees' date=' where do they go? And if that is the case, how long will it take for them to recover?[/quote']

 

Honestly, I wouldn't be shocked if they just went with Reddick if they aren't able to get someone on 2-3 years. It would probably take them awhile to recover, though I still think they could make the playoffs next year, given the additions of VMart, Buchholz and (basically) Dice-K.

 

It's amazing they won 95 this year without those guys for most of the season.

 

I don't think that offering someone what is probably fair market value is "lowballing". They don't like paying over value. I can understand that.

 

Do you like paying over value Jacko?

[jacksonianmarch]

It's slim pickens after Bay/Holiday. But a two year commitment to either Damon or Abreu isn't going to break the bank.

 

It shouldnt. Damon could be signed for a 2 yr deal, as I do think he gets offered a 1 yr deal to stay in NY. Abreu may want something more. He already rejected a 2yr 16 mil deal from LAA. We'll see how much he will want.

[BSN07]

No to Damon.

 

Abreu would work for a season.

 

Crawford, Dunn, Dejesus, Hawpe and Werth are all FA possibilities the following season in FA. There's always trade possibilities as well. So I don't see it setting them back to rebuilding mode if they miss out on Bay/Holliday this off season.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

Abreu over Damon, easily. Abreu gets on base much more, Damon's been playing in NYS, and neither one of them would be a big bat in the lineup, meaning we'd have to acquire a middle-of-the-order bat anyways.

[rhet]

3 yrs for Bay is low balling. The guy just turned 31.

[jacksonianmarch]

Honestly, I wouldn't be shocked if they just went with Reddick if they aren't able to get someone on 2-3 years. It would probably take them awhile to recover, though I still think they could make the playoffs next year, given the additions of VMart, Buchholz and (basically) Dice-K.

 

It's amazing they won 95 this year without those guys for most of the season.

 

I don't think that offering someone what is probably fair market value is "lowballing". They don't like paying over value. I can understand that.

 

Do you like paying over value Jacko?

 

Fair market value? For a guy like Bay when you consider the deals given to players at his age and production? I have already gone over this. Bay should be able to get a deal for 5yrs and should likely collect $15-17 million per season. Compared to other big time corner OF deals, that is "fair market value." Now those contracts always include paying a player for his production after he starts to decline. But I would argue that on a standard dollar for dollar basis, that Bay's 2009 season was worth more than 15 million dollars. And the hope is that you have a player who is worth more than his AAV for the beginning of the deal so you can negate his worth late in the contract when its likely below the AAV.

 

Also, if the sox "just go with Reddick" then they are flat out done as a top contender in the majors unless they make a MAJOR upgrade elsewhere. Losing 36 homers and 115RBI for a slower clone of Ellsbury will be a MAJOR downgrade.

[jacksonianmarch]

No to Damon.

 

Abreu would work for a season.

 

Crawford, Dunn, Dejesus, Hawpe and Werth are all FA possibilities the following season in FA. Ther's always trade possibilities as well. So I don't see it setting them back to rebuilding mode if they miss out on Bay/Holliday this off season.

 

With what they have commited and with Beckett being in his last season in Boston, a rebuild wouldnt be prudent. If the sox strike out on getting Felix and then Beckett walks after 2010, then a rebuild would be in order. I think Theo might be biding his time thinking 2010 and 2011 might be two of those 3 out of 10 yrs. Remember the initial speech?

 

He said that his goal is to be competitive at the highest level for 7 out of 10 yrs and then need to retool in the other 3. If he doesnt go out and get one of either Bay or Holliday, then I think he will go to war with what he has (with minor tweaking) for 2010 and potentially shed a lot of dead weight after 2010 with a leaner yr in 2011 and finally come out with another playoff contender in 2012.

[Dojji]

I gotta say this BSN07. I agree with most of the guys on your list but do you really think David Dejesus is anywhere on our radar as a possible LF? He just doesn't have the bat to play there and nis power is pretty marginal, especially as an LHH.

[jacksonianmarch]

If the sox went into the season with Josh Reddick as their LFer, would you be pissed?

[Dojji]

If the sox went into the season with Josh Reddick as their LFer' date=' would you be pissed?[/quote']

 

Went into the season? Very much yes. There's no reason not to at least bring in a guy like David Dellucci to give us an alternative to a guy who's barely played at the AAA level.

[BSN07]

Fair market value? For a guy like Bay when you consider the deals given to players at his age and production? I have already gone over this. Bay should be able to get a deal for 5yrs and should likely collect $15-17 million per season. Compared to other big time corner OF deals, that is "fair market value." Now those contracts always include paying a player for his production after he starts to decline. But I would argue that on a standard dollar for dollar basis, that Bay's 2009 season was worth more than 15 million dollars. And the hope is that you have a player who is worth more than his AAV for the beginning of the deal so you can negate his worth late in the contract when its likely below the AAV.

 

Also, if the sox "just go with Reddick" then they are flat out done as a top contender in the majors unless they make a MAJOR upgrade elsewhere. Losing 36 homers and 115RBI for a slower clone of Ellsbury will be a MAJOR downgrade.

When will you learn the market has changed? The only team offering those insane type deals right now are the Yanks. It doesn't seem like there are a lot of teams out there willing to offer up that kind of dough.

I gotta say this BSN07. I agree with most of the guys on your list but do you really think David Dejesus is anywhere on our radar as a possible LF? He just doesn't have the bat to play there and nis power is pretty marginal' date=' especially as an LHH.[/quote']

I don't think so. I just put him up there because he was one of the better players available.

[jacksonianmarch]

The market has changed. For the guys in the middle. The top FAs are still getting top dollar. And Bay is a top FA

[Dojji]

I don't think so. I just put him up there because he was one of the better players available.

 

Alright then. I might look at him as a CF replacement if we do something crazy like trade Ellsbury for Beltran, or might look at him as one heck of a 4th OF, but he's not starting LF material in Boston.

 

Speaking of Ellsbury, am I the only one that thinks he might be an interesting player to the Twins in a potential Joe Mauer deal?

 

We know Span plays RF, we know they can sort Kubel and Cuddyer out using LF and DH. We know they love super-speedy contact hitters. We know we want Mauer, especially if we can extend him. Mauer would make me forget pretty quickly how much I loved Ellsbury's speed, and a Reddick-Baldelli platoon is a price worth paying for having Mauer catching games for us.

[jacksonianmarch]

Ellsbury would be one piece in a massive package

[Dojji]

It would be a lot less massive if Ellsbury was in it. He's just about the perfect Minnesota player.

[jacksonianmarch]

Ellsbury+Bard+ about 3 other guys.

[Dojji]

oh, it'll be pricey, but when you put Ellsbury and Bard into the package those 3 other guys probably aren't going to be prime prospects.

 

Besides, the Twins have/had an odd system and tend to find a way to win these trades without forcing a team's absolute top prospects out of them. Like a former mediocre starter named Joe Nathan for example...

[jacksonianmarch]

They got assraped for Santana though

[Dojji]

That's another reason to be hopeful for a relatively gentle Mauer deal.

 

Honestly, the Yankees should be after Mauer too. Montero, Gardner and Hughes would make a powerful case for them.

[jacksonianmarch]

That's another reason to be hopeful for a relatively gentle Mauer deal.

 

Honestly, the Yankees should be after Mauer too. Montero, Gardner and Hughes would make a powerful case for them.

 

I would not deal for Mauer at all. We have the best catching depth in the minor leagues (per BA) and dealing for a catcher would seem a bit rash. That being said, if he were a FA, then its fair game.

 

Cervelli

Montero (who knows if he stays at C)

Romine (FSL MVP)

Higashioka

Murphy

Sanchez

 

The catcher position is loaded.

[Dojji]

You know as well as I do that none of those guys has any realistic chance to be as good as Mauer. That's why I'm not talking about Exposito, Wagner, Federowicz and Lavarnway.

[jacksonianmarch]

Dojji, there arent too many positions in the yankee minors that are strong outside of the pitching staff. Catcher is the strongest, much stronger than the sox. Now, you are right that neither of these guys will be Mauer. But it takes away the urgency in dealing for him. Now, if he hits the FA market, then we'll talk

[Dojji]

Dojji' date=' there arent too many positions in the yankee minors that are strong outside of the pitching staff. Catcher is the strongest, much stronger than the sox. Now, you are right that neither of these guys will be Mauer. But it takes away the urgency in dealing for him. Now, if he hits the FA market, then we'll talk[/quote']

 

If you think that having a lot of a certain type of player in the minors means that you shouldn't deal for a premium guy when the opportunity rises, you're a fool. I learned that lesson last year. NEVER count on a prospect as a definite go-to-option.

 

I don't care how many young shortstops we have in the minors, if we can upgrade the position in the majors for years to come with a deal for Hanley, we deal for Hanley.