Harden to Red Sox?

[example1]

Again' date=' no other hitter on this team is as good a #2 hitter as Pedroia, his approach is the best, since he plays to the score and respects the fundamentals.[/quote']

 

I agree with this.

[Dipre]

45 or 46 XBH vs 61 XBH (their 162 G averages) is not almost twice as many. Interstingly, this type of measurement is reflected nicely in SLG.

 

I acknowledged early on that Reyes has better power, nobody doubts that, but the difference between a .435 and a .414 SLG isn't some universal gap that dwarfs one over the other.

 

Shea vs Fenway.

 

You're also using this year alone to benchmark Ellsbury's production.

[BSN07]

That's fine' date=' but they're not going to land Fielder without giving up Buchholz (the Brewers are desperate for pitching). So if they go that route, getting Lackey or Felix would become a necessity.[/quote']

Not quite .

 

One could argue the Sox could make an attractive package "without" Buchholz.

 

Say a Tazawa(Bowden,MDC)/Kelly/Anderson/Reddick.

 

 

I think you're probably right about Reyes. He has a year (2010) and an option, both getting closer to that FA salary (9 and 11m respectively). Have we all agreed that a .350 OBP and 60-70 steal potential makes you best leadoff hitter in the league material? If so, we've got that already.

 

That said, having another offensive presence like Ellsbury at SS would be a nice upgrade to the Lowrie and Gonzalez offensive hole they've had there for awhile. Reyes has some tools that Ellsbury doesn't (a bit more power specifically--gap and HR), but they're remarkably similar offensive weapons. I wonder if the Mets would be willing to trade Reyes for a package like Bowden and Lowrie. It isn't a great return, but between cost, injury history and low OBP Reyes isn't a god and shouldn't be traded for like one. If they wanted absolutely top dollar they should have traded him two years ago when he was untouchable. Bowden and Lowrie sounds a little low to me, but not by much, and if I were the Sox I wouldn't want to throw a whole lot more cost controlled talent NY's way.

I like the idea of Reyes. But with his recent leg injuries, he may not be the stealing threat he once was. Even if he is 100%, he may choose to steal less often just to save his legs.

Ellsbury is not in the same universe as Reyes in the power department.

 

Reyes has 20-40-10 potential.

 

At which stadium? YS? Coors? Philly?

 

At Fenway and his current home park I would bet he's more of a 10-50-15.

 

Just my initial thought on the matter

 

Reyes is probably at least as good a #2 hitter as Pedroia. Better, since his performance isn't tied quite so much into batting average.

 

Ellsbury singles, Reyes doubles or triples. that's probably at least 4 or 5 instant 1-0 leads over the course of a season.

 

IMHO that would turn Pedroia into one heck of a #7 hitter.

 

I don't see Pedroia hitting # 7 to be honest. I think the best thing would be running 9-1-2. Whether it be Ellsbury or Reyes leading off.

[Dipre]

At which stadium? YS? Coors? Philly?

 

At Fenway and his current home park I would bet he's more of a 10-50-15.

 

Just my initial thought on the matter

 

 

Shea is a tougher park on both lefties and righties than Fenway.

 

Not to mention Reyes is a switch-hitter, not a lefty.

[Dojji]

Switchies still bat left in about 2/3 of their plate appearances.

[Dipre]

Switchies still bat left in about 2/3 of their plate appearances.

 

Reyes has averaged over 700 hundred plate appearances per season since coming to the bigs..

 

So we're talking 230+ RH ABs, not to mention the fact that i specifically stated that Shea was a worse hitters park for both lefties and righties than Fenway.

 

But thanks for enlightening me, because i had no idea that the vast majority of pitchers in MLB pitch from the right side. No clue. At all./endsarcasm

[Dojji]

BSN07 was talking about Fenway mostly.

 

I'd be interested in hearing why you consider him a 20HR guy when he's never actually hit 20 HR's.

[Dipre]

BSN07 was talking about Fenway mostly.

 

I'd be interested in hearing why you consider him a 20HR guy when he's never actually hit 20 HR's.

 

He's hit 19 and 17 twice in a much worse park for hitters.

 

But you are right, i mean 19 and 17 are such a far cry from 20 my idea is just plain ridiculous.

[italstallianion]

Are we in math class? Because I see a tangent...

[ORS]

So we're talking 230+ RH ABs' date=' not to mention the fact that i [b']specifically stated[/b] that Shea was a worse hitters park for both lefties and righties than Fenway.

You made this up.

 

Fenway has had a HR Factor

 

That's evidence that Fenway is harder on LHH. Then there's just good old fashioned common sense. Fenway is one of the deepest parks to RF in the league.

[Gom]

Let me get this straight....

 

You're saying that Fenway is not as good a homerun park as Shea?

[ORS]

Not to RF it isn't.

[BSN07]

Shea is a tougher park on both lefties and righties than Fenway.

 

Not to mention Reyes is a switch-hitter, not a lefty.

Ok I wasn't sure if he was a switchie or not.

Then there's just good old fashioned common sense. Fenway is one of the deepest parks to RF in the league.

 

^ This.

 

I didn't need to look at any stat to tell me that RF at Fenway is where HR go to die. But I'm glad you found one to prove me right

[Dipre]

You made this up.

 

Fenway has had a HR Factor

 

That's evidence that Fenway is harder on LHH. Then there's just good old fashioned common sense. Fenway is one of the deepest parks to RF in the league.

 

Fenway Park has 380 feet to deep right field but 302 down the line, for one.

 

Shea Stadium had 371 feet to deep right field but 339 down the line.

 

So we're talking a 9-foot difference in the power alley, yet a 37-foot difference down the line.

 

Let's go ahead and make the argument that more homers were hit in Shea in a year-to-year basis than Fenway, but you could also argue that it has a lot to do with the inferior pitching of the Mets themselves and the rest of the NL East during Shea's final years of existence.

 

You, ORS, my friend, seem to think that Fenway is the bane of power hitters, but i digress, even though straightway RF is murder for LHH's, it's a 9-ft difference between Fenway and old Shea, however, the difference down the line was much more pronounced in Shea's favor, destroying the potential for "cheap homers" and early pull shots, but hey, i'll admit my take on Shea, unlike AT&T was very subjective.

[italstallianion]

How in bloody hell did we get from talking about Rich Harden in Boston to talking about Jose Reyes? Shouldn't we either change the title of this thread to be more ambiguous or move the discussion of this topic?

[Dipre]

How in bloody hell did we get from talking about Rich Harden in Boston to talking about Jose Reyes? Shouldn't we either change the title of this thread to be more ambiguous or move the discussion of this topic?

 

No.

 

Because it's interesting discussion.

 

Besides, it correlates, Harden is a possible off-season acquisition, and so is Jose Reyes.

[example1]

Shea vs Fenway.

 

You're also using this year alone to benchmark Ellsbury's production.

 

You're assuming that. I actually used his career per-162 numbers.

 

Shea vs. Fenway/ AL vs NL

[Dipre]

You're assuming that. I actually used his career per-162 numbers.

 

Shea vs. Fenway/ AL vs NL

 

This, however, i will consider valid.

[ORS]

How in bloody hell did we get from talking about Rich Harden in Boston to talking about Jose Reyes? Shouldn't we either change the title of this thread to be more ambiguous or move the discussion of this topic?

Dojji's whimsy of the week. He and BSN07 infect every thread they enter with their Christmas wish list.

[example1]

This' date=' however, i will consider valid.[/quote']

 

I'm not sure what argument you are considering things valid or invalid for... my original point included a definite claim that Reyes has more power than Ellsbury. I just don't think they are in different universes as offensive players.

[Dipre]

Dojji's whimsy of the week. He and BSN07 infect every thread they enter with their Christmas wish list.

 

Awwwwwwwwwww come on, it made for interesting discussion.

[Dipre]

I'm not sure what argument you are considering things valid or invalid for... my original point included a definite claim that Reyes has more power than Ellsbury.

 

I thought you were referring to the 20 homers part of the argument, my apologies.

[example1]

I'd say Reyes would be a better option than JJ Hardy, if he's reasonably healthy. That salary (20m over the next two years) isn't too bad compared to 7m or so for Gonzalez. I think there's reason to believe that if he's healthy enough to play he will still be fast. Some people are just fast. He'll still be faster than Gonzalez or Lowrie for what that's worth.

 

I think they're still going to put their hopes on Lowrie and I still have faith that he can be another .365ish OBP guy who could be pretty valuable for so cheap. He hasn't shown that yet (other than in college and the minors) but he has shown flashes when healthy of being a valuable SS for this club.

[Dipre]

I'd say Reyes would be a better option than JJ Hardy, if he's reasonably healthy. That salary (20m over the next two years) isn't too bad compared to 7m or so for Gonzalez. I think there's reason to believe that if he's healthy enough to play he will still be fast. Some people are just fast. He'll still be faster than Gonzalez or Lowrie for what that's worth.

 

I think they're still going to put their hopes on Lowrie and I still have faith that he can be another .365ish OBP guy who could be pretty valuable for so cheap. He hasn't shown that yet (other than in college and the minors) but he has shown flashes when healthy of being a valuable SS for this club.

 

His health is the problem.

[BSN07]

Dojji's whimsy of the week. He and BSN07 infect every thread they enter with their Christmas wish list.

Aww come on, I have so been better about it. All my wish list stuff I have really kept in the off season thread. I only commented on certain available players after they were already mentioned here.

Awwwwwwwwwww come on' date=' it made for interesting discussion.[/quote']

This is usually my line, doesn't tend to work with ORS

 

I think they're still going to put their hopes on Lowrie and I still have faith that he can be another .365ish OBP guy who could be pretty valuable for so cheap. He hasn't shown that yet (other than in college and the minors) but he has shown flashes when healthy of being a valuable SS for this club.

I'll be really surprised if they bring in Lowrie as the starting SS next season.

His health is the problem.

 

^ This

[Dojji]

I'll be really surprised if they bring in Lowrie as the starting SS next season.

 

Throw "without at least investing in a veteran Plan B" in at the end of that sentence and I'm right there with you.

 

Anyone think the Sox might go for a 1 year rental of Miguel Tejada? He can certainly hit, and he'd be able to cover for Lowrie at least adequately if that wrist injury is still bugging him next year.

[Dipre]

Throw "without at least investing in a veteran Plan B" in at the end of that sentence and I'm right there with you.

 

Anyone think the Sox might go for a 1 year rental of Miguel Tejada? He can certainly hit, and he'd be able to cover for Lowrie at least adequately if that wrist injury is still bugging him next year.

 

I doubt Tejada would settle for being a backup.

 

He can still hit enough to look for a starter job.

[BSN07]

I doubt Tejada would settle for being a backup.

 

He can still hit enough to look for a starter job.

 

^ This

 

 

If it's a one year stop gap/plan B, just bring Agon back IMO.

[Cocos Disciples]

To take it back to the original topic, I posed this question to BP's Eric Seidman when we were discussing it, and he answered it in a chat today:

 

David (Boston): Harden or Bedard?

 

Eric Seidman: Three words but a very intricate question. I'm not going to add in the generic "When healthy, X is dominating" because we know that. The issue to me here is money. With a relatively full season under his belt in 2009, and his past record of success, Harden is probably going to get a fairly lucrative deal. Sure, incentives will be tossed in to safeguard against his health history, but he isn't going to get a 2-yr, $8 mil deal with incentives. Bedard might be able to be had for less money given the injury struggles over the past two years. I would take the chance on Harden, personally, because I just think he's a better pitcher than Bedard, but the latter may come cheaper and, with injury potential, provide equal production.

 

http://baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=655

[Dojji]

In all reality we probably aren't going after either of them and our rental will turn out to be someone like Justin Duchscherer who offers a bit more flexibility and could go to the pen if other plans (Bowden, Tazawa) work out as advertized