Dice K or Clay in Game 3

[a700hitter]

Because Daisuke is the hot hand?

All of his starts have been good since he returned. He's had 3 quality starts out of 4 starts with a 2.22 ERA. In his last 4 starts Buchholz has had 2 quality starts with a 6.10 ERA. Who's hot?

[a700hitter]

Lowe sucked the whole season.

He was very spotty that year. He had a good June and a pretty good August that carried through to his first 3 starts in September. He was going deep into games. It looked like he had turned a corner, and then the wheeels came off. Anyway, you seized on the wrong point. It's not relevant whether Lowe sucked for the whole year or only part of the year. It is relevant that he sucked at the end and he got dropped from the rotation and almost didn't make the post-season roster. He played that post season only because of injury and then he got hot.

[Dojji]

He was very spotty that year. He had a good June and a pretty good August that carried through to his first 3 starts in September. He was going deep into games. It looked like he had turned a corner' date=' and then the wheeels came off. Anyway, you seized on the wrong point. It's not relevant whether Lowe sucked for the whole year or only part of the year. It is relevant that he sucked at the end and he got dropped from the rotation and almost didn't make the post-season roster. He played that post season only because of injury and then he got hot.[/quote']

 

And Jeff Weaver had one postseason in 2006 that made him look like a pitching god. Anyone can get hot -- ANYONE.

[a700hitter]

And Jeff Weaver had one postseason in 2006 that made him look like a pitching god. Anyone can get hot -- ANYONE.

You go with the hot hand, not the cold hand, especially when the cold hand has no big game experience. Buchholz's final two starts merit him getting dropped to the 4th slot. Lowe got dropped from the rotation altogether and he had more experience than Buchholz. You don't put the cold hand out there hoping that he gets hot in a huge game. That's called a hunch. You don't manage the post season based on hunches.

[a700hitter]

And Jeff Weaver had one postseason in 2006 that made him look like a pitching god. Anyone can get hot -- ANYONE.

How the hell is this relevant? Should the pitch Bowden, because ANYONE can get hot?

[BSN07]

I think it's Dice-K at this point.

[Dojji]

How the hell is this relevant? Should the pitch Bowden' date=' because ANYONE can get hot?[/quote']

 

No. You pitch the guy you can most count on even if he isn't hot. right now, that's Buchholz.

 

Derek Lowe getting hot in the postseason is absolutely irrelevant.

[a700hitter]

No. You pitch the guy you can most count on even if he isn't hot. right now, that's Buchholz.

 

Derek Lowe getting hot in the postseason is absolutely irrelevant.

... And Buchholz has a long record of coming up big when the team has counted on him. Are you mixing him up with Josh Beckett?

[Dojji]

... And Buchholz has a long record of coming up big when the team has counted on him. Are you mixing him up with Josh Beckett?

 

Daisuke has a nice record of coming up pretty small. He averages almost exactly 5 innings in his 7 postseason starts.

[redsoxrules]

Daisuke has a nice record of coming up pretty small. He averages almost exactly 5 innings in his 7 postseason starts.

 

I'm not taking side but its not how much IP you can pitch its how effective you can be

 

If he can throw 5 SO innings with throwing 120 pitches its all good to me

I'd rather take that than 7IP with 2 ER

 

and FYI Buchholz has averaged 5.75 IP per starts this year

[a700hitter]

Daisuke has a nice record of coming up pretty small. He averages almost exactly 5 innings in his 7 postseason starts.

His post season record shows that he almost always keeps his team in the game and gives them a chance to win and they have won all but one of his post season starts.

[BSN07]

They both could be great, they both could stink. Just flip a coin. It will probably be Dice-k. You might not see Buchholz until the ALCS if they make it. I have to imagine Buchholz must be getting close to his innings cap.

[yankees228]

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/recap;_ylt=AmS_v..1g4te.BgfcyVJV08RvLYF?gid=291004102&prov=ap

 

It looks like it'll be Buchholz.

[BSN07]

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/recap;_ylt=AmS_v..1g4te.BgfcyVJV08RvLYF?gid=291004102&prov=ap

 

It looks like it'll be Buchholz.

 

Should have stuck with my initial thoughts lol

[Dipre]

Should have stuck with my initial thoughts lol

 

Reverse lock.

[Emmz]

Since Dice-K's return he's lowered his ERA form 8.23 to 5.76 (6 runs in his 4 starts). Clay's been rocked in his past two starts completely. His inconsistency makes him suspect, and as stated before, you can't just give the ball to someone who's given up 13 earned runs in his past two starts and just hope he snaps back to where he was before

[a700hitter]

Since Dice-K's return he's lowered his ERA form 8.23 to 5.76 (6 runs in his 4 starts). Clay's been rocked in his past two starts completely. His inconsistency makes him suspect' date=' and as stated before, you can't just give the ball to someone who's given up 13 earned runs in his past two starts and just hope he snaps back to where he was before[/quote']

Exactly. In a short series, if you give away 1 game, you will lose. There is no room to let this guy work out his problem during a play off game. It's not like we don't have another option. Dice K has been pitching well and he has experience. Score: Dice K 2 Clay 0.

[Dojji]

Since Dice-K's return he's lowered his ERA form 8.23 to 5.76 (6 runs in his 4 starts). Clay's been rocked in his past two starts completely. His inconsistency makes him suspect' date=' and as stated before, you can't just give the ball to someone who's given up 13 earned runs in his past two starts and just hope he snaps back to where he was before[/quote']

 

Why can't you?

 

Bear in mind that over the course of the regular season, all of Beckett, Lester and Buchholz struggled for two-start stretches or more over the course of the season. The tonic for those pitchers was a lack of panic and simply getting the reps in to correct the problem.

 

I believe that same recipe can apply here.

[a700hitter]

Why can't you?

 

Bear in mind that over the course of the regular season, all of Beckett, Lester and Buchholz struggled for two-start stretches or more over the course of the season. The tonic for those pitchers was a lack of panic and simply getting the reps in to correct the problem.

 

I believe that same recipe can apply here.

Buccholz does not yet belong in the class of Beckett and Lester who are proven aces and big game play off pitchers. You live and die with Beckett and Lester. If they hit a rough patch for the play offs, you're done. It's as simple as that. There are no alternatives to pitching your aces--- none. Buchholz is a 3rd, 4th or 5th starter. He is not an ace. You go with the hot hand. There are alternatives. IMO, Dice K is the best option among the alternatives.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

Why do we sacrifice Buchholz's ability to pitch big games in the future (since that's apparently very very crucial) in favor of this postseason, then?

 

If experience is that important and game 3 is an elimination game (for either side), why not throw Buchholz out there in the first of what will hopefully be numerous like situations for him?

[Dojji]

Why do we sacrifice Buchholz's ability to pitch big games in the future (since that's apparently very very crucial) in favor of this postseason, then?

 

If experience is that important and game 3 is an elimination game (for either side), why not throw Buchholz out there in the first of what will hopefully be numerous like situations for him?

 

Superb point. Especially if you bear in mind that the Sox plan to contend indefinitely and will very likely make the postseason next year.

[RWTP24]

Dice-K has looked really good sense being back in the rotation. I am quite shocked the Tito is starting Clay, but I do understand it. Clay is a big part of the Sox future and he needs to start somewhere.

 

Now with all this said, I really, really want to win this year. I hope this move does not bite us in the ass in the long run.

 

I know this is a WS team if our pitchers pitch like they have been as of late (minus a couple of starts at the end) and IMO, we need Clay big time because Beckett looks like s***.

[a700hitter]

Why do we sacrifice Buchholz's ability to pitch big games in the future (since that's apparently very very crucial) in favor of this postseason, then?

 

If experience is that important and game 3 is an elimination game (for either side), why not throw Buchholz out there in the first of what will hopefully be numerous like situations for him?

Why not throw him out there to get experience when the Sox are up 2 games to none. They used Lester in 2007 when they were up 3-0 in the WS. It's still big game experience. If he stinks out the joint, you have another shot with Beckett and Lester or both. I don't think you let the kid take the hill with the team facing elimination. Lackey is the only rookie to be put in that situation that I can think of in more than 20 years. Buchholz can have a nice career, but he did not dominate the league this year. It would not be a good idea to put him in that position.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

Why not throw him out there to get experience when the Sox are up 2 games to none. They used Lester in 2007 when they were up 3-0 in the WS. It's still big game experience. If he stinks out the joint' date=' you have another shot with Beckett and Lester or both. I don't think you let the kid take the hill with the team facing elimination.[/quote']

 

Sure you do. Give him pressure to perform under. There are more seasons after this, in which we'll likely be relying on Buchholz from time to time.

 

Lackey is the only rookie to be put in that situation that I can think of in more than 20 years. Buchholz can have a nice career, but he did not dominate the league this year. It would not be a good idea to put him in that position.

 

He's never going to get the experience if you never give him the opportunity. The Red Sox have to take away his training wheels at some point. The sooner they do, the sooner they see if they truly have a keeper.

[a700hitter]

Sure you do. Give him pressure to perform under. There are more seasons after this' date=' in which we'll likely be relying on Buchholz from time to time.[/quote']Pitching game 3 with a 2 games to 0 lead to close out a series is not enough pressure? It's far from a spring training game. He would certainly have butterflies before that start.

 

He's never going to get the experience if you never give him the opportunity. The Red Sox have to take away his training wheels at some point. The sooner they do' date=' the sooner they see if they truly have a keeper.[/quote']I think letting him pitch in a non-elimination game in the play offs is great experience. I'd pitch him if were up 2-0, but not down 0-2. If it is 1-1 or 0-2, I'd start Dice K and give him a short leash.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

Pitching game 3 with a 2 games to 0 lead to close out a series is not enough pressure? It's far from a spring training game. He would certainly have butterflies before that start.

 

If he loses the close-out game, the team still has two more chances to get one win. If he loses the elimination game, the season is over.

 

I don't know, you tell me what the higher pressure situation is.

 

I think letting him pitch in a non-elimination game in the play offs is great experience. I'd pitch him if were up 2-0, but not down 0-2. If it is 1-1 or 0-2, I'd start Dice K and give him a short leash.

 

Why do you keep preaching experience and swearing that that is what Buchholz will need to ever be successful, and then are loathe to every single chance to give him this experience? If he pitches the 0-2 game and fails, oh well. There's many, many more chances after this season, and its probably good that Buchholz experiences playoff failure. Has to happen at some point.

[a700hitter]

If he loses the close-out game, the team still has two more chances to get one win. If he loses the elimination game, the season is over.

 

I don't know, you tell me what the higher pressure situation is.

I didn't say that the elimination game didn't have more pressure. I am saying that any playoff game has a lot of pressure for a young pitcher. I am also saying that the team shouldn't put itself in a situation where if a young pitcher shits himself that the season is over. I expect Bard will also get some meaningful innings which will be high pressure because it is the play offs, but I wouldn't expect that he should be protecting a 1- run lead in game 5. That would not be very smart. You can get a kid big game experience and acclimated to the pressure of those games without rolling the dice by putting the whole season on the line for one bad start or appearance by a rookie.

 

 

 

Why do you keep preaching experience and swearing that that is what Buchholz will need to ever be successful' date=' and then are loathe to every single chance to give him this experience? If he pitches the 0-2 game and fails, oh well. There's many, many more chances after this season, and its probably good that Buchholz experiences playoff failure. Has to happen at some point.[/quote']The opportunity to pitch in an elimination game should be earned (unless there are no other options). You can earn that opportunity by pitching well in big regular season game, by pitching well in other post season (non-elimination) games, or by being dominant. Buchholz has not earned the opportunity. Let him close out a sweep in game 3 of the ALDS first, then maybe pitch well in game 3 of the ALCS. Maybe then you trust him with the ball in his hand in ALCS game 7.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

I didn't say that the elimination game didn't have more pressure. I am saying that any playoff game has a lot of pressure for a young pitcher. I am also saying that the team shouldn't put itself in a situation where if a young pitcher shits himself that the season is over. I expect Bard will also get some meaningful innings which will be high pressure because it is the play offs' date=' but I wouldn't expect that he should be protecting a 1- run lead in game 5. That would not be very smart. You can get a kid big game experience and acclimated to the pressure of those games without rolling the dice by putting the whole season on the line for one bad start or appearance by a rookie.[/quote']

 

Bard shouldn't be the guy unless other relievers are tired. Because there are better options than him. Dice-K is a better option than Clay because why? This season's numbers certainly don't back that idea up.

 

I ask again, what is so special about this season that makes it worth hindering future seasons? If Clay doesn't learn how to deal with that kind of pressure this year, he'll have to next year, one year later. I'd rather have a better idea of what we can get from Clay in October 2010 even if it means pitching him and getting burned this year.

 

The opportunity to pitch in an elimination game should be earned (unless there are no other options). You can earn that opportunity by pitching well in big regular season game, by pitching well in other post season (non-elimination) games, or by being dominant. Buchholz has not earned the opportunity. Let him close out a sweep in game 3 of the ALDS first, then maybe pitch well in game 3 of the ALCS. Maybe then you trust him with the ball in his hand in ALCS game 7.

 

What the hell did Clay not earn? HE PITCHED BAD IN TWO MEANINGLESS GAMES. Focus and pressure have a direct correlation. If the meaningless games he's pitching in are... meaningless, and he knows it, why would he waste bullets by giving his 200% in a meaningless game, and not try some new things, perhaps?

 

How the hell has Dice-K earned to pitch game 3 but Clay hasn't? Seniority? Please. He's been injured a huge chunk of the year, and most of when he hasn't been injured he's pitched very poorly. But four non-bed-s***ing starts at the end of the season, one of which in a completely meaningless game (read: unimportant. the results are not at all telling or indicative of players' true selves), and another largely unimportant since the division race was over but not formally finished.

[a700hitter]

I ask again' date=' what is so special about this season that makes it worth hindering future seasons? If Clay doesn't learn how to deal with that kind of pressure this year, he'll have to next year, one year later. I'd rather have a better idea of what we can get from Clay in October 2010 even if it means pitching him and getting burned this year.[/quote']In the playoffs, you take your shot to win. I don't think Clay gives them the best chance to win an elimination game. You don't turn your back on the best chance to win in order to get someone some experience for future seasons.

 

How the hell has Dice-K earned to pitch game 3 but Clay hasn't? Seniority? Please. He's been injured a huge chunk of the year' date=' and most of when he hasn't been injured he's pitched very poorly. But four non-bed-s***ing starts at the end of the season, one of which in a completely meaningless game (read: unimportant. the results are not at all telling or indicative of players' true selves), and another largely unimportant since the division race was over but not formally finished.[/quote']Seniority is not the factor. Big game experience and success in big games is a factor. Plus, he had the hot hand in the final month with a 2.22 ERA. He's got the experience and he's in the grove. Clay is inexperienced and in a rough patch. Not a tough decision. Doji agrees with you.

[Cocos Disciples]

I don't buy Matsuzaka's success in big games. The team is 6-1 when he pitches in the playoffs, but for most of those you can point to the bullpen or offense as a bigger reason for the victory than Matsuzaka. He's had one great postseason start (Game 1 of the 2008 ALCS).

 

4.79 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 1.94 K/BB. That's his postseason record.

 

You can make a case for both guys, but I don't think postseason success is a good reason.