The best Red Sox lineup

[BoSox21]

In the Playoffs' date=' if Varitek or Kotchman break the lineup, I'll have to be held down so that I don't go into convulsions and swallow my tongue.[/quote']

 

what about for late-game, defensive purposes (Kotchman)?

[a700hitter]

what about for late-game' date=' defensive purposes (Kotchman)?[/quote']The improvement in the D is not worth the chance in a close game that we lose Lowell's bat. To me Lowell is still a damn good third baseman and Youk is a better first baseman than Kotchman, so I see no reason to make the late inning move.

[BoSox21]

Cause Lowell isn't still a damn good third baseman, at least range-wise

[TheKilo]

Lowell is a terrible defensive 3B.

[a700hitter]

Cause Lowell isn't still a damn good third baseman' date=' at least range-wise[/quote']Lowell's been moving a lot better lately, and I think his range is much better than it was early in the season. And I don't think Youk's arm is as consistent as Lowell's at third and I think Youk is the better first baseman than Kotchman. I see no compelling reason to sacrifice one of our hammers in the lineup. I'd be more apt to lift Lowell late in a close game for a pinch runner, but not for a marginal upgrade at 3rd while marginally downgrading at first. There would be a compelling reason to remove him for a runner.

[example1]

Regarding Ellsbury and the leadoff spot, Glanville has an op-ed in today's New York Times discussing leadoff hitting in general and Ellsbury and Red Sox in particular, in case anyone is interested.

 

nytimes.com/2009/09/21/opinion/21glanville-leadoff.html

 

Glanville argues that there is more to hitting first than OBP. Specifically, he suggests that Ellsbury's speed and what not induces errors, fielder's choices and poorer pitching that aren't directly credited to Ellsbury's stats.

 

Are there any attempts trying to measure this threat effect? For example, how much, if any, does the likelihood of a homerun increase when Ellsbury is on first base compared to when he isn't? Or compared to say Drew?

 

 

Whenever there is a phenomenon in baseball that can't be measured adequately, it is too easy to write it off as unimportant or as apparently beneficial, but actually evening out over time.

 

Ellsbury has a unique impact because of his speed. He adds a different element than most other players that isn't reflected in his WARP or OBP or OPS. We've spent years watching guys like Carl Crawford and Chone Figgins bring a different skillset and they always seem to be causing trouble or coming in handy.

 

Ellsbury looks much more comfortable at the plate than he did the first quarter of the season. He could definitely be a very important player in a short, closely contested playoff series

[PWNdroia]

I cant tell you how many times i have said this.. and anyone who bats Jacoby 7th is an idiot. he is a good lead off hitter and can make alot of things happen when on the bases.

 

I actually prefer Pedroia at lead-off, but if Ells is there, I can't complain.

 

Why is Nick Green in this lineup? I'd take Gonzo over him any day.

[Dipre]

I actually prefer Pedroia at lead-off, but if Ells is there, I can't complain.

 

Why is Nick Green in this lineup? I'd take Gonzo over him any day.

 

Pedroia hates hitting leadoff.

[ORS]

Whenever there is a phenomenon in baseball that can't be measured adequately' date=' it is too easy to write it off as unimportant or as [i']apparently[/i] beneficial, but actually evening out over time.

 

Ellsbury has a unique impact because of his speed. He adds a different element than most other players that isn't reflected in his WARP or OBP or OPS. We've spent years watching guys like Carl Crawford and Chone Figgins bring a different skillset and they always seem to be causing trouble or coming in handy.

 

Ellsbury looks much more comfortable at the plate than he did the first quarter of the season. He could definitely be a very important player in a short, closely contested playoff series

I'm confident saying the impact of Ellsbury's speed is accounted for in his WARP.

 

To start, WARP accounts for stolen base success and failure. Now, you might say that it doesn't account for other ways his speed impacts a game, like taking extra bases (1st to 3rd, scoring from 2nd on a single, scoring from 3rd on a double), but I'd argue that it probably gets a piece of that.

 

The reason I'd argue it does is based on how they come up with the run value of SB. Those run values are based on total team SB successes and failure over many years as components to overall team scoring. It's no stretch to suggest that teams with a high SB success rate also have higher success rates in the other areas speed impacts the game. So, in essence, the SB component of his WARP also includes some accountability for these other impacts.

[PWNdroia]

Pedroia hates hitting leadoff.

 

That's the sad part about it. But Ellsbury is still pretty good as a lead-off, and he has the speed, so it makes perfect sense. But when Pedroia was lead-off at one point in 07 and early 08, we PWNdroia'd everyone.

[example1]

I'm confident saying the impact of Ellsbury's speed is accounted for in his WARP.

 

To start, WARP accounts for stolen base success and failure. Now, you might say that it doesn't account for other ways his speed impacts a game, like taking extra bases (1st to 3rd, scoring from 2nd on a single, scoring from 3rd on a double), but I'd argue that it probably gets a piece of that.

 

The reason I'd argue it does is based on how they come up with the run value of SB. Those run values are based on total team SB successes and failure over many years as components to overall team scoring. It's no stretch to suggest that teams with a high SB success rate also have higher success rates in the other areas speed impacts the game. So, in essence, the SB component of his WARP also includes some accountability for these other impacts.

 

I almost posted a longer explanation for what I wrote above, but I didn't at the time. I think the part that is missing in the WARP measurements isn't the speed on the bases, but rather the different situations confronted by the other team with that speed on the bases. It may mean paying more attention to the man on 1B, getting into more inopportune counts against Pedroia and V-Mart, or making the defense less aggressive. I don't think it has a huge impact on overall value (and hence could be confused as having a null-value) but I'm willing to bet most managers would rather have those factors than not have those factors with a man on first base.

 

It is my perception that Red Sox pitchers have tended to pitch more visably rattled with Crawford or Figgins on base than Pena or Polanco. That's a factor that is missed and which is consistent as long as he's not hurt.

 

I belive that 1) Ellsbury's WARP is a pretty accurate reflection of his overall value and 2) that WARP does as well as any other number to provide a comprehensive look at a player's value added.

 

I'm not so sure that I trust that the defensive metrics capture everything that Ellsbury does in CF because my gut reaction tells me he is a good fielder. That may mean that he only does exceptionally well in particular areas, akin to Alex Gonzalez, and I manage to blank-out the things he doesn't do so well--this is entirely possible.

 

Gonzalez isn't the most mobile shortstop but he makes the plays that come right at him, even the very difficult ones. Ellsbury isn't the guy I want leaping at the wall for a catch, or gunning a guy down at home, but he is the guy I want diving for a sinking shot to centerfield and I do trust him to make most of the routine plays hit his way.

 

 

Ellsbury won't become a top tier player until he can get his OBP into the .365-.380 range. If he can ever get there then he will be a very good overall addition.

[ORS]

And I don't think his OBP approaches that range until he adds power to his game. Given his speed and ability to put himself into scoring position with his legs, pitchers are going to continue challenging him in the strikezone until he shows that he's a threat to consistently put himself in scoring position with his bat.

[Dojji]

And I don't think his OBP approaches that range until he adds power to his game. Given his speed and ability to put himself into scoring position with his legs' date=' pitchers are going to continue challenging him in the strikezone until he shows that he's a threat to consistently put himself in scoring position with his bat.[/quote']

 

Power isn't the problem. Denard Span has the same level -of power as Ellsbury, and gets on base about 30 points better.

[Dipre]

Power isn't the problem. Denard Span has the same level -of power as Ellsbury' date=' and gets on base about 30 points better.[/quote']

 

Span isn't even in the same universe as Ellsbury when it comes to being a threat on the bases.

[Dojji]

Granted, but if you're just talking about OBP and speedy guys, he's a good one to bring up.

[Mr Crunchy]

This is why guys like Rickey Henderson were so valuable and tortured pitchers all day

[Dipre]

Granted' date=' but if you're just talking about OBP and speedy guys, he's a good one to bring up.[/quote']

 

Span: 21 SB, 10 CS

 

Ellsbury: 64 SB, 13 CS

 

Ellsbury has more than triple the stolen bases with only 3 more caught stealing.

 

Not a valid comparison at all.

[Dojji]

Yeah but if you're talking about OBP on speedy guys, he's a good one to bring up.

[Dipre]

Yeah but if you're talking about OBP on speedy guys' date=' he's a good one to bring up.[/quote']

 

Obviously not.

 

Because you're completely disregarding the point.

 

ORS says pitchers go straight at Ellsbury because he's an absolute threat on the bases, but has no power, which his 64 SBs but .421 SLG% prove.

 

You bring up Denard Span and his 21 SBs, it's not the same type of threat.

 

Seriously, stick to apples/apples comparisons.

[Dojji]

I suppose there is that. But since Span is trying to get on ahead of Mauer and is a threat to steal, I would be willing to wager that pitchers aren't exactly lining up to put him on base either.

[Dipre]

I suppose there is that. But since Span is trying to get on ahead of Mauer and is a threat to steal' date=' I would be willing to wager that pitchers aren't exactly lining up to put him on base either.[/quote']

 

i rather doubt they're as careful of him as they are of Crawford, Ellsbury or even Michael Bourn.