The best Red Sox lineup

[CrespoBlows]

http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py?Player0=Pedroia&OBA0=+0.376&Slug0=+0.437&Player1=Youkilis&OBA1=+0.424&Slug1=+0.564&Player2=Bay&OBA2=+0.382&Slug2=+0.508&Player3=Drew&OBA3=+0.371&Slug3=+0.446&Player4=Lowell&OBA4=+0.341&Slug4=+0.495&Player5=Martinez&OBA5=+0.363&Slug5=+0.461&Player6=Ellsbury&OBA6=+0.348&Slug6=+0.406&Player7=Kotchman&OBA7=+0.354&Slug7=+0.413&Player8=Green&OBA8=+0.302&Slug8=+0.376&Model=1

 

According to this lineup simulator, an optimum Red Sox lineup can be expected to score up to 5.7 runs per game. They use OBP and SLG, which have the highest correlation with runs scored.

 

Adding Varitek and Ortiz cuts the production by .2 runs per game. Given that Tito has a fondness for batting Ortiz fifth, or even sixth, it is obvious what the Red Sox need to do if they want to score more runs to compensate for their lack of pitching.

 

Bench Papi. Bench Varitek.

[cobra24]

I cant tell you how many times i have said this.. and anyone who bats Jacoby 7th is an idiot. he is a good lead off hitter and can make alot of things happen when on the bases.

[CrespoBlows]

I cant tell you how many times i have said this.. and anyone who bats Jacoby 7th is an idiot. he is a good lead off hitter and can make alot of things happen when on the bases.

 

Yeah, getting thrown out in front of your best three hitters is an awesome thing.

[Dojji]

Yeah' date=' getting thrown out in front of your best three hitters is an awesome thing.[/quote']

 

Alright, Mr. Grumpy Von Grumpenstein, exactly why are you trying to pick a fight with the entire board, all at once?

[cobra24]

Yeah' date=' getting thrown out in front of your best three hitters is an awesome thing.[/quote']

 

oh lord... because he gets throw out so much... what is he 52/60? that sounds like close to 90% he is safe to me. all you guys need to relax. nothing perfect in baseball and thats pretty damn close.

[CrespoBlows]

Alright' date=' Mr. Grumpy Von Grumpenstein, exactly why are you trying to pick a fight with the entire board, all at once?[/quote']

 

Who was I trying to pick a fight with? Losing Ellsbury on the basepaths in front of Pedroia, Youkilis, and Martinez is very costly.

 

Ellsbury can make things happen in front of Nick Green. Maybe we can use Green to sac bunt more often, if Ellsbury can steal the bag in front of him.

[Dojji]

Your posting style usually betrays a hint of irritability. Recently it's been far more than a hint. You're fast approaching full bore curmudgeon status.

[CrespoBlows]

oh lord... because he gets throw out so much... what is he 52/60? that sounds like close to 90% he is safe to me. all you guys need to relax. nothing perfect in baseball and thats pretty damn close.

 

While he probably adds a few runs with his stealing, he gives a LOT back when he removes himself on the basepaths.

 

The run expectation table values a runner at 1st with no outs at .9116 runs. The figure raises slightly to 1.1811 when he successfully steals second. However, the expected runs total plummets to .2783 if he is caught stealing a base. The run expectation is an aggregate of runs that scored, from that base/out state, to the end of that inning. Therefore, the loss of a baserunner in front of Bay, Martinez, and Youkilis, who are all well above average hitters, is substantially worse.

 

I believe that the stolen base is a useful tactic, albeit an extremely overrated one. It is better using that tactic in front of players who don't have the ability to score runners from 1st. Losing Ellsbury in front of Green does not hurt as badly as losing him in front of Pedroia.

[Dojji]

The last time I saw the math done, it was something like an 85% success rate required for stolen bases to be more productive than the outs given back. A high standard ineed -- but Ellsbury meets it and then some.

[ManRam]

I noticed JD Drew leading off in a few of those situations

[CrespoBlows]

The last time I saw the math done' date=' it was something like an 85% success rate required for stolen bases to be more productive than the outs given back. A high standard ineed -- but Ellsbury meets it and then some.[/quote']

 

86.6% - 85.0% = 1.6%

 

Really?

[Dojji]

I can only repeat what I've read. I'm not even going to pretend I can do the math myself.

[CrespoBlows]

I can only repeat what I've read. I'm not even going to pretend I can do the math myself.

 

Would you agree that the break-even rate is directly related to how many runs the offense scores?

[Paradisecity]

Crespo- I think your theory hold merit but I have questions that perhaps you can answer for me:

 

How many bases can Ellsbury steal with Bay, Lowell, Ortiz, Youk in front of him?

 

If these men in the middle of the lineup can bat Ellbury in from first, wont that insinuate that they'll be (if not home already) on 2nd or third? IN which case they are in the same position Ellsbury would be for the men lower in the lineup to hit in?

[TedWilliams101]

I think the best question to ask is, does a random lineup simulator that only takes into account OBP and SLG really the best way to form a lineup? I think there are a lot of other factors that need serious consideration.

[CrespoBlows]

I think the best question to ask is' date=' does a random lineup simulator that only takes into account OBP and SLG really the best way to form a lineup? I think there are a lot of other factors that need serious consideration.[/quote']

 

Those are the two factors that have the highest correlation with runs scored.

[CrespoBlows]

Crespo- I think your theory hold merit but I have questions that perhaps you can answer for me:

 

How many bases can Ellsbury steal with Bay, Lowell, Ortiz, Youk in front of him?

 

Probably the same as he would steal if he was batting 6th, 7th, or 8th. There's no evidence that I've seen that would suggest that other players influence stolen base totals.

 

If these men in the middle of the lineup can bat Ellbury in from first, wont that insinuate that they'll be (if not home already) on 2nd or third? IN which case they are in the same position Ellsbury would be for the men lower in the lineup to hit in?

 

Yes, but they aren't being erased from the basepaths. Can you elaborate on this point a little further? Are you talking about something like Kotchman/Green knocking in Drew/Lowell?

[Paradisecity]

Regarding the first point, men on base ahead of someone HAVE to influence stolen base totals. If there is a man on first base 10% more often than was previous, when Ells gets on he'll be 10% (not factoring in doubles, etc) less likely to steal second. When your leadoff guy is batting after the guys who dont do much damage, he has clean basepaths to run. Thats not the case in the 7 spot. Hard to steal a base from first when Big Papi is on 2nd

 

 

Regarding the second point, yeah I am talking about a situation where Green is knocking in Bay or Drew instead of Ellsbury. They aren't being erased, I agree, but what i am saying is, why would it matter if you have guys at the bottom of the order who cant knock in guys often from first since the guys who would be batting instead of Ells in that low spot would be an XBH hitter anyway.

[redsoxrules]

I LOVE the idea but we'll never see it

[CrespoBlows]

Regarding the first point' date=' men on base ahead of someone HAVE to influence stolen base totals. If there is a man on first base 10% more often than was previous, when Ells gets on he'll be 10% (not factoring in doubles, etc) less likely to steal second. When your leadoff guy is batting after the guys who dont do much damage, he has clean basepaths to run. Thats not the case in the 7 spot. Hard to steal a base from first when Big Papi is on 2nd[/quote']

 

Well, that wouldn't be the worse thing that would happen, considering more men would be on base, and the best hitters on the team would be strung together. However, I believe that Ellsbury would have more opportunities to steal, because he doesn't have to worry about allowing Pedroia/Martinez/Youkilis to hit.

 

We might even see an improvement from Pedroia, given that he no longer has to take pitches to allow Ellsbury to steal.

 

Regarding the second point, yeah I am talking about a situation where Green is knocking in Bay or Drew instead of Ellsbury. They aren't being erased, I agree, but what i am saying is, why would it matter if you have guys at the bottom of the order who cant knock in guys often from first since the guys who would be batting instead of Ells in that low spot would be an XBH hitter anyway.

 

I would say that those XBH would be better off hitting in the players that show the best ability to get on base. Drew, Bay, and Lowell are all more valuable batting higher in the order, rather than Ellsbury.

[cobra24]

Well, that wouldn't be the worse thing that would happen, considering more men would be on base, and the best hitters on the team would be strung together. However, I believe that Ellsbury would have more opportunities to steal, because he doesn't have to worry about allowing Pedroia/Martinez/Youkilis to hit.

 

We might even see an improvement from Pedroia, given that he no longer has to take pitches to allow Ellsbury to steal.

 

 

 

I would say that those XBH would be better off hitting in the players that show the best ability to get on base. Drew, Bay, and Lowell are all more valuable batting higher in the order, rather than Ellsbury.

 

I know im new to this site, but you crack me up.. its hard to talk to you guys because you guys are just fans. being a coach at a very hi level you seen thing a different way, i guess.

 

i would love to know the numbers after jacoby has scored once he has stolen a base.. can you do the math on that for all of us??

[cobra24]

oh and one more thing... can you do the math on how the pitchers change the way they pitch because he is on the bases and they have to worry about him stealing 2nd and 3rd???

[CrespoBlows]

oh and one more thing... can you do the math on how the pitchers change the way they pitch because he is on the bases and they have to worry about him stealing 2nd and 3rd???

 

Additionally, studies show that stolen-base attempts negatively impact the performance of the batter at the plate, presumably due to hitters getting themselves into negative counts by taking pitches or swinging at bad balls to protect the runner.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2607

[cobra24]

no no... we want the math... not another ******** site...

[BoSox21]

no no... we want the math... not another ******** site...

 

your math is one click away...

[CrespoBlows]

no no... we want the math... not another ******** site...

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/base-stealer-intangibles-part-1/

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/base-stealer-intangibles-part-2/

 

Apparently, it's a grand total of 0.8 runs per season.

 

Awe-inspiring.

 

EDIT* Can't say it with that much certanity, but it's very likely that the effect is that small.

[v2freak]

It's interesting that the best Red Sox lineup includes Nick Green - a solid player I'd say who would thrive in Triple A but at the end of the day is still hitting near the Mendoza line. This line up excludes Varitek who can be frustrating to watch at the plate but makes great calls behind it.

[CrespoBlows]

It's interesting that the best Red Sox lineup includes Nick Green - a solid player I'd say who would thrive in Triple A but at the end of the day is still hitting near the Mendoza line. This line up excludes Varitek who can be frustrating to watch at the plate but makes great calls behind it.

 

There are no other bats to take his spot.

 

And no, Varitek's vaunted game calling ability does not compensate for his horrific plate appearances.

[Cocos Disciples]

no no... we want the math... not another ******** site...

 

Baseball Prospectus: Another ******** site.

 

Awesome.

[v2freak]

There are no other bats to take his spot.

 

And no, Varitek's vaunted game calling ability does not compensate for his horrific plate appearances.

 

Wouldn't Tek have to hit below .200 for his defense to be considered unjustified for his poor hitting? And he does come in and get a timely hit here and there. A guy that strikes out three times when the Sox are up by 7 doesn't bother me as long as he can get on base in a close game.