It's Time to Trade Penny

[Rdsxmbnt]

This has nothing to do with his performance today, but really it's time to move Penny. No sense in waiting for the trade deadline, just find a team who will offer a decent prospect or bench player and make the deal.

 

Buchholz is the future of this team and there is absolutely no reason to delay this any longer. We have a once in a decade type talent and it's not wise to keep toying around. Sure it was kinda interesting how even after the no-hitter he got sent back down, but now it's two years later and his stuff and new-found poise on the mound show he looks to be a better bet right now and in the future. Even on a day where he didn't really have his best pitch working he still handled the Jays pretty easily.

[TedWilliams101]

I'd be tempted to keep him around until Dice-K comes back. We still aren't sure how he will perform when he gets back from the DL. It would nice to have him as insurance.

 

However, it's hard to argue against having Buchholz in our rotation instead of Penny or even Smoltz (though he probably will turn it around soon). Even if Dice-K doesn't get it together this season, Buchholz and Smolts should be able to hold down the 4 and 5 spots.

 

I'm sure the Sox are looking around to see what they might be able to get for Penny, I think they will likely trade him (I think its a no doubter if Dice-K is ready before the trade deadline).

[Dutchy]

This has nothing to do with his performance today, but really it's time to move Penny. No sense in waiting for the trade deadline, just find a team who will offer a decent prospect or bench player and make the deal.

 

Buchholz is the future of this team and there is absolutely no reason to delay this any longer. We have a once in a decade type talent and it's not wise to keep toying around. Sure it was kinda interesting how even after the no-hitter he got sent back down, but now it's two years later and his stuff and new-found poise on the mound show he looks to be a better bet right now and in the future. Even on a day where he didn't really have his best pitch working he still handled the Jays pretty easily.

 

I agree that we should trade Penny to make room for Buchholz, and it has nothing to do with Penny's performance today. I suggested it yesterday. Nothing against Penny's he's done an alright job. He's been more solid than his numbers suggest. But I think Buchholz has the potential to do much better. And he's at the point that he's not getting anything out of AAA anymore, so to keep him there any longer is stunting his development.

 

But I don't feel like NOW is the time to make a trade. We have plenty of time to wait and see how Smoltz does before we make a decision. And who knows, maybe Buchholz will break his toe or something in the next week.

 

Come July 31st, however, I would like to see Buchholz given a spot in the rotation. If he struggles, we still have an absurd amount of depth in Bowden, Masterson and Matsuzaka.

[CrespoBlows]

I'd like to see Penny involved in a three-way deal which would net us a bat.

[Rdsxmbnt]

I'd be tempted to keep him around until Dice-K comes back. We still aren't sure how he will perform when he gets back from the DL. It would nice to have him as insurance.

 

But when Dice-K comes back we'd have 7 seven guys looking for 5 MLB rotation spots. If the front office believes Buchholz is a potential future ace moving forward (and given their complete reluctance to talk about dealing him and the 94mph fastball + plus curve/change combo, I can't see why not) then really it's not worth waiting around and risking any hitches in his development because we want the 'B+' prospect instead of the 'B' one.

 

Doing anything with Smoltz is tricky to impossible since we basically made a commitment with him. But Penny we should feel no veteran urge to hesitate to move him. I appreciate what he's done and he's held the fort well but Buchholz clearly has far more upside.

[BSN07]

If Dice-K can return to the rotation, I see no reason the Sox shouldn't see if there is an attractive deal out there. Especially on a SP slim market.

 

Dice- K can replace Penny. And if Smoltz continues to struggle they could bring up Buchholz and put Smoltz in the BP. Where he could be very useful. And possibly making Saito available to a team in need of a late inning pitcher.

[jacksonianmarch]

Dealing Penny right now is stupid. He has been one of your most consistent starters during a playoff run. You have a rookie in Buchholz who would step in. DiceK may come back, but the guy we saw wasnt suffering from a sore shoulder, he was suffering from being a terrible pitcher and needing to revamp his pitching style (which is why he's in Fort Myers right now). You have Smoltz, who is feeling his way around after shoulder surgery and has looked more hittable than he has ever been. This is not the time to deal away a guy who goes 6IP and allows 3-4 runs per start like clockwork. If you deal him away, you take a strength and make it a concern

[TedWilliams101]

Dealing Penny right now is stupid. He has been one of your most consistent starters during a playoff run. You have a rookie in Buchholz who would step in. DiceK may come back' date=' but the guy we saw wasnt suffering from a sore shoulder, he was suffering from being a terrible pitcher and needing to revamp his pitching style (which is why he's in Fort Myers right now). You have Smoltz, who is feeling his way around after shoulder surgery and has looked more hittable than he has ever been. This is not the time to deal away a guy who goes 6IP and allows 3-4 runs per start like clockwork. If you deal him away, you take a strength and make it a concern[/quote']

 

You are so right. What was I thinking about trading him?

[ted521]

Dealing Penny right now is stupid. He has been one of your most consistent starters during a playoff run. You have a rookie in Buchholz who would step in. DiceK may come back' date=' but the guy we saw wasnt suffering from a sore shoulder, he was suffering from being a terrible pitcher and needing to revamp his pitching style (which is why he's in Fort Myers right now). You have Smoltz, who is feeling his way around after shoulder surgery and has looked more hittable than he has ever been. This is not the time to deal away a guy who goes 6IP and allows 3-4 runs per start like clockwork. If you deal him away, you take a strength and make it a concern[/quote']

 

jacksonianmarch,

 

I take it right off the bat that you are a Yankee fan but you hit the nail right on the head with this one.

[Cocos Disciples]

Agree with Jacko. And TW101, glad to see a strong rebuttal.

[BSN07]

It may not be the best time to move Penny. But they still have a couple weeks. If someone blows them away then they should consider it. I was for trading him earlier this year, but with Dice-K f***ing the dog, and Smoltz regaining his form, it's probably not the best time.

 

 

I would propose if Smoltz continues to struggle put him in the Pen. Have Dice-K(if ready) or Buchholz replace him. And maybe make Saito available to other teams in need of BP help. There's always Masterson to take a spot maybe as well.

[a700hitter]

This has nothing to do with his performance today, but really it's time to move Penny. No sense in waiting for the trade deadline, just find a team who will offer a decent prospect or bench player and make the deal.

 

Buchholz is the future of this team and there is absolutely no reason to delay this any longer. We have a once in a decade type talent and it's not wise to keep toying around. Sure it was kinda interesting how even after the no-hitter he got sent back down, but now it's two years later and his stuff and new-found poise on the mound show he looks to be a better bet right now and in the future. Even on a day where he didn't really have his best pitch working he still handled the Jays pretty easily.

 

Penny doesn't have much trade value IMO. He's more valuable in the rotation than as a trading chip. He has had a very solid season up to this point. Trading him now would be essentially dumping him for very little in return. I see no possibility that he brings back any talent that would improve this Red Six team. Buchholz is the future and that will come next season.

[Dipre]

Penny doesn't have much trade value IMO. He's more valuable in the rotation than as a trading chip. He has had a very solid season up to this point. Trading him now would be essentially dumping him for very little in return. I see no possibility that he brings back any talent that would improve this Red Six team. Buchholz is the future and that will come next season.

 

Those who advocate trading Penny for a bat don't realize that the most he could net is a bench player with very limited offensive potential right now.

 

And besides, pitching depth is a GOOD thing.

 

Remember 2006?

[BSN07]

Penny doesn't have much trade value IMO. He's more valuable in the rotation than as a trading chip. He has had a very solid season up to this point. Trading him now would be essentially dumping him for very little in return. I see no possibility that he brings back any talent that would improve this Red Six team. Buchholz is the future and that will come next season.

You never know how desperate someone might get. Teams make bad trades and over pay all the time.

Those who advocate trading Penny for a bat don't realize that the most he could net is a bench player with very limited offensive potential right now.

 

And besides, pitching depth is a GOOD thing.

 

Remember 2006?

 

This is probably what he could net on a fair market to be honest. But you never know what a desperate GM might do in a bid to maybe save his job:D

[Dutchy]

Dealing Penny right now is stupid. He has been one of your most consistent starters during a playoff run. You have a rookie in Buchholz who would step in. DiceK may come back' date=' but the guy we saw wasnt suffering from a sore shoulder, he was suffering from being a terrible pitcher and needing to revamp his pitching style (which is why he's in Fort Myers right now). [b']You have Smoltz, who is feeling his way around after shoulder surgery and has looked more hittable than he has ever been[/b]. This is not the time to deal away a guy who goes 6IP and allows 3-4 runs per start like clockwork. If you deal him away, you take a strength and make it a concern

 

He's had two bad starts coming off a year of recovery. It's nothing new for him, and he's always corrected himself in the past. I still think we should wait and see what Smoltz does before any deal for Penny. But if Smoltz is himself, then Penny is really unnecessary.

[Dipre]

He's had two bad starts coming off a year of recovery. It's nothing new for him' date=' and he's always corrected himself in the past. I still think we should wait and see what Smoltz does before any deal for Penny. But if Smoltz is himself, then Penny is really unnecessary.[/quote']

 

Pitching, sir, is never unnecessary.

 

Trade-friendly would be more accurate.

[Dutchy]

Pitching, sir, is never unnecessary.

 

Trade-friendly would be more accurate.

 

You're right. Like I said before, the deal has more to do with the need to promote Buchholz or stunt his development, than it does with how Penny has done.

[SoxSport]

Their hitting is hurting them right now--especially on the road. Ortiz is better, but he isn't the hitter of a couple of years ago--yet. Bay is in a slump. Is the contract talk a distraction? Tito continues to hit them in the middle of the order.

 

I think sending Buchholz down is a mistake. He needs another start or two before the trade deadline. AAA starts will not solve their rotation issues. Penny does not look like a top of rotation starter at this point, and is expendable for some hitting help. Buchholz has that potential, and needs the starts.

[TedWilliams101]

Agree with Jacko. And TW101' date=' glad to see a strong rebuttal.[/quote']

 

I honestly thought Jacko's post was sarcasm. How can an ERA north of 5 be "solid"? (3-4ER in 6IP is 5.25ERA). Yes, he has been consistent, but so what? Consistency doesn't mean good, just means the ability to get similar results. Has he been the most dependable pitcher? No. He is our 4th most dependable pitcher (and I'm sure that will change soon once Smoltz gets his 'feel' back). Lets face it, Penny has been alright this season, but I also think he has been fairly lucky this season. He has gotten himself into lots and lots of trouble (1.5 WHIP) and been lucky often enough (Many LOUD outs). Let's see what Buchholz can do.

 

Just trade the guy for any bat you can get and put Buchholz in the 5 spot.

[Cocos Disciples]

Lets face it' date=' Penny has been alright this season, but I also think he has been fairly lucky this season. [/quote']

 

BABIP: .334

FIP: 4.22

 

Take away April and his ERA is also 4.22. Nobody is saying he's the most dependable pitcher, but unless we can get something of value (which apparently nobody thinks we can), it's pretty stupid to trade him.

[Dutchy]

I don't think there's any clear cut answer whether we'd be better off with Penny or Buchholz in the rotation. Buchholz is obviously more of a high risk (not that Penny himself doesn't carry risk), high reward guy while Penny is more of a low risk, low reward pitcher. He's never going to be more than just solid.

[Dutchy]

BABIP: .334

FIP: 4.22

 

Take away April and his ERA is also 4.22. Nobody is saying he's the most dependable pitcher, but unless we can get something of value (which apparently nobody thinks we can), it's pretty stupid to trade him.

 

I'm not so sure that we couldn't get anything of value for Penny. Before Daisuke's injury, the Phillies were reportedly "all over" Brad Penny.

 

http://www.philly.com/inquirer/sports/20090628_On_Baseball__Who_will_be_buying_and_selling_.html?page=1&c=y

 

Whoever misses out on Roy Halladay, whether it be the Phillies, Cardinals, or some other team will probably at least kick the tires on Penny. We could possibly get an upgrade at our corner infield positions or middle infield positions on the bench.

[jacksonianmarch]

Penny doesn't have much trade value IMO. He's more valuable in the rotation than as a trading chip. He has had a very solid season up to this point. Trading him now would be essentially dumping him for very little in return. I see no possibility that he brings back any talent that would improve this Red Six team. Buchholz is the future and that will come next season.

 

I should have added this to my post. The value to the sox is WAY more than the value he will return in a trade. Penny is a back of the rotation starter, but a reliable one. Teams would be willing to give up fringe guys for that player, but for the sox he is as valuable as they come. You dont empty the farm system for a guy who might not even make your postseason rotation and who's gonna be a FA at the end of the yr

[TedWilliams101]

I don't think his 1.5 WHIP is just due to "bad luck". He has posted his highest SLG (against - .469). What is most disturbing (or telling), though, is his GB/FB ratio. His career average is 0.86, this season has been 0.69. His XBH this season are a career high 10.2%. If he was getting a lot of grounders that were finding holes, than I would agree its luck, but he's not.

 

I'm not saying Penny is a terrible pitcher. He's not, he's about average. I just think that you have to play your BEST team. Buchholz in the rotation is better than Penny in the rotation.

 

I do think we could get some decent return on Penny. We don't need to "empty" a farm for him. A solid utility player or solid prospect should be good enough. Better yet, move him to the pen or option him to AAA.

[Dutchy]

I should have added this to my post. The value to the sox is WAY more than the value he will return in a trade. Penny is a back of the rotation starter' date=' but a reliable one. Teams would be willing to give up fringe guys for that player, but for the sox he is as valuable as they come. You dont empty the farm system for a guy who might not even make your postseason rotation and who's gonna be a FA at the end of the yr[/quote']

 

He's a back of the rotation starter in the AL East. In the NL, he's a 3rd starter. And I bet there's a team or two which will trade for his past performance in prospects. He's a 2 time All-Star with a top 3 finish in the NL Cy Young Award voting only 2 years ago.

 

No one's expecting a team to "empty the farm" for him. It's a little ridiculous that you would even mention that. All the Red Sox would want would be a bench player who could play either middle infield, corner infield or both. We're not looking for a top prospect, just an improvement over Nick Green or Mark Kotsay.

 

A starter with a 5+ ERA and a 1.50+ WHIP isn't nearly as valuable to the Sox as Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden, Daisuke Matsuzaka or Justin Masterson could be.

[example1]

He's a back of the rotation starter in the AL East. In the NL, he's a 3rd starter. And I bet there's a team or two which will trade for his past performance in prospects. He's a 2 time All-Star with a top 3 finish in the NL Cy Young Award voting only 2 years ago.

 

No one's expecting a team to "empty the farm" for him. It's a little ridiculous that you would even mention that. All the Red Sox would want would be a bench player who could play either middle infield, corner infield or both. We're not looking for a top prospect, just an improvement over Nick Green or Mark Kotsay.

 

A starter with a 5+ ERA and a 1.50+ WHIP isn't nearly as valuable to the Sox as Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden, Daisuke Matsuzaka or Justin Masterson could be.

 

I think Penny is as valuable a player as they're going to get on the market. If they end up going to the playoffs it certainly isn't going to hurt to have a Brad Penny or a Clay Buchholz available for a start if there is an injury, or if a starter gets hit early in the game and you need someone to come in and shut the door.

 

D-Lowe pitched in all three series clinching games in 2004. He sucked all season. The playoffs are a different beast and the Sox will need to bring every weapon they've got. Penny can hit 95 or 96 on the gun and has games where he can be dominant for a few innings. If they need to bring a pitcher in in the 3rd inning down by 4 he wouldn't be a bad guy to throw out there.

 

I'm a fan of trying to move him, but his value will likely be in combination with other players to get something back that the team really wanted. Not this year's incarnation of Gabe Kaplar or Bobby Kielty.

[example1]

Just to put some structure to my statement above:

 

2004: D-Lowe's WARP3 -3.7

2009: B-Penny's WARP3: 1.6

 

We're lucky fans to even be having this discussion. Could you imagine another team giving away a guy like Brad Penny heading into the playoffs because they wanted a better veteran backup-outfielder? Any return on him should be geared either toward the future or should be part of a bigger deal. Even another really solid RP (perhaps if packaged) a la the Ramon Ramirez deal would be better than a guy who just sits on the bench and won't be a critical part of the team.

[SCM33]

I'm a fan of trying to move him' date=' but his value will likely be in combination with other players to get something back that the team really wanted. Not this year's incarnation of Gabe Kaplar or Bobby Kielty.[/quote']

 

 

Don't underestimate a team who is in contention around the deadline, looking to pick up a starter to take home a playoff berth. Just look at the Mets with Kazmir, not totally out of the question to get someone to bite.

 

We dont have to move him for a veteran, we have plenty of other prospects to do that, maybe Penny lands a stud prospect instead.

[example1]

Don't underestimate a team who is in contention around the deadline' date=' looking to pick up a starter to take home a playoff berth. Just look at the Mets with Kazmir, not totally out of the question to get someone to bite.[/quote']

 

 

I think Kazmir for Zambrano might be Chapter 1 of the "What not to do as a GM" handbook that all GMs get when they walk through the door of their new job. It is the publication left casually in front office bathrooms and it sits in waiting rooms all around the league.

 

We dont have to move him for a veteran, we have plenty of other prospects to do that, maybe Penny lands a stud prospect instead.

 

Not for only a few months though, IMO. That's why I'm saying they should package him. Penny's contract is simply too short for another team to give up its really good prospects, but he's valuable enough that they would probably be open to a reasonable discussion about win-now vs. win-later. I can think of a few teams that wouldn't mind adding him as their #3 or #4.

[Dipre]

Don't underestimate a team who is in contention around the deadline, looking to pick up a starter to take home a playoff berth. Just look at the Mets with Kazmir, not totally out of the question to get someone to bite.

 

We dont have to move him for a veteran, we have plenty of other prospects to do that, maybe Penny lands a stud prospect instead.

 

The Kazmir comparison is full of WIN, because the Mets were exactly the type of Major-league ready pitching hungry team that usually shits the bed and trades a quality player for a piece that won't really work out for them.