It's Time to Trade Penny

[SCM33]

 

I think Kazmir for Zambrano might be Chapter 1 of the "What not to do as a GM" handbook that all GMs get when they walk through the door of their new job. It is the publication left casually in front office bathrooms and it sits in waiting rooms all around the league.

 

 

 

Not for only a few months though, IMO. That's why I'm saying they should package him. Penny's contract is simply too short for another team to give up its really good prospects, but he's valuable enough that they would probably be open to a reasonable discussion about win-now vs. win-later. I can think of a few teams that wouldn't mind adding him as their #3 or #4.

 

Right, didnt take in to consideration Pennys contract, my bad.

[617_suffolkcounty_standup]

Not interested in ever trading starting pitching. Unless i'm getting something I need in return.

[BoSox21]

Not interested in ever trading starting pitching. Unless i'm getting something I need in return.

 

I don't think this situation is as black and white as that though. There are several factors greying the entire case. Penny has been remarkably durable this season and one would think he could break down at any point now, especially considering his tendency to fall off in the second half over his career. He almost certainly has no place on this team next season and there remains a glut of starting pitching on the sidelines with Buchholz and Dice-K.

 

It's a pretty unique case of being able to help the team for the future without hurting its chances now

[ted521]

I don't think this situation is as black and white as that though. There are several factors greying the entire case. Penny has been remarkably durable this season and one would think he could break down at any point now' date=' especially considering his tendency to fall off in the second half over his career. He almost certainly has no place on this team next season and there remains a glut of starting pitching on the sidelines with Buchholz and Dice-K.[/quote']

 

So what is his value? What would you want to obtain for him? You are right he does seem to vanish in the second half and with teams knowing that, what could we really get of any worth?

 

Keeping him still seems like the best move IMO

[BoSox21]

I have no idea what his value is, I'm not a GM or a baseball insider. All I know is that he could be valuable to teams who lose out on the Halladay sweepstakes

[Dipre]

I believe in the premise that Penny is probably worth more to the Sox than to any other team.

 

However, one can never underestimate the stupidity of a desperate GM.

[617_suffolkcounty_standup]

Look guys. This team just doesn't hit on a consistant basis, ever! Here's what everyone knows about the Redsox.

 

1) They don't have a true leadoff hitter or a real run producing cleanup bat.

2) The pitching will take them as far as they go this year.

 

If your a GM, not named Theo Epstein. Why would you even call the Redsox about Penny unless your giving them a leadoff hitter or a cleanup hitter? And if your Theo Epstein, why do you make that move without a need return?

[ted521]

I have no idea what his value is' date=' I'm not a GM or a baseball insider. All I know is that he could be valuable to teams who lose out on the Halladay sweepstakes[/quote']

 

He could be...but if he has that kind of value I would think he is better off staying put.

[BoSox21]

1) They don't have a true leadoff hitter or a real run producing cleanup bat.

2) The pitching will take them as far as they go this year.

 

They haven't had a true leadoff hitter since Damon left after 2005. They have guys with the characteristics of a leadoff hitter but for whatever reason, no one has claimed that spot as theirs. Youk is about the only guy that has done well there but his bat is needed in the middle of the order.

[BSN07]

Look guys. This team just doesn't hit on a consistant basis, ever! Here's what everyone knows about the Redsox.

 

1) They don't have a true leadoff hitter or a real run producing cleanup bat.

2) The pitching will take them as far as they go this year.

 

If your a GM, not named Theo Epstein. Why would you even call the Redsox about Penny unless your giving them a leadoff hitter or a cleanup hitter? And if your Theo Epstein, why do you make that move without a need return?

Because sometimes you get Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano;)

They haven't had a true leadoff hitter since Damon left after 2005. They have guys with the characteristics of a leadoff hitter but for whatever reason' date=' no one has claimed that spot as theirs. Youk is about the only guy that has done well there but his bat is needed in the middle of the order.[/quote']

 

Drew is an adequate Lead off hitter for the time being. He's just in one of his funks.

[SoxSport]

The Sox have 2 weeks to break their logjam at SP and shore up their corner IF offense/defense. They have to make some decisions if they want to improve--which they might have to to beat NY. That means Penny gets dealt. Frankly, I'm not impressed with a pitcher who only goes 5-6 innings and gives up 3 or so runs. That's about a 4.50 ERA, and that isn't good enough to win consistently. Wakefield overall is about the same kind of pitcher, but he saved them in April-May when Beckett and Lester were pitching poorly. Smoltz has a much higher capability, and hopefully he'll show it the next couple of starts.

 

I'm hoping they will trade Penny and bring up Buchholz and maybe even Bowden. You can't count on Dice-K for this year--looks like he blew the season pushing too early in Japan. You would think the Sox would have controlled his regimen in Japan. They are so careful about that with their pitchers--but apparently let Dice-K get out of their hands. I don't think that will happen again.

[BoSox21]

Drew is an adequate Lead off hitter for the time being. He's just in one of his funks.

 

.233/.340 as a leadoff hitter over his career which he has hit .281/.390

 

its not a funk...

[BSN07]

I honestly think the pitcher to trade right now is Saito. He's probably going to be a "type A" FA. That sounds great, but it might be Juan Cruz all over again. Him knowing that he might just except arbitration. With his arm issues and with the uncertainty of knowing if they will get picks for him, I'd say move him sooner rather then later.

 

There are plenty of teams looking for RP. Sherrill is the top name out there probably. Once/if he's traded the teams that couldn't pull it off will probably be interested in Saito.

 

Smoltz could fill in the BP if he can't get going in the rotation. And who knows they might bring up Buchholz and Bowden and work them in out of the BP like they have done with other young pitchers. Getting them experience and limiting there IP. Just a thought.

[Dipre]

.233/.340 as a leadoff hitter over his career which he has hit .281/.390

 

its not a funk...

 

 

Drew has altered his approach while hitting leadoff, IMHO, he's trying too hard to get on base via walks instead of driving the ball on hitter's counts like he usually does.

[BSN07]

.233/.340 as a leadoff hitter over his career which he has hit .281/.390

 

its not a funk...

 

God that's awful. I stand corrected. I was reading something about his stats in an article about his production out of certain spots in the line up. I must have confused lead off with #3 or something.

[BSN07]

To get Lowrie going I might be inclined to go with a lineup something like this,

 

SS Lowrie

2B Pedroia

RF Drew

1B Youkillis

DH Ortiz

LF Bay

3B Lowell

C Tek

CF Ellsbury

 

Or even just put Ellsbury back on top and Lowrie 9.

[BoSox21]

Frankly' date=' I'm not impressed with a pitcher who only goes 5-6 innings and gives up 3 or so runs. That's about a 4.50 ERA, and that isn't good enough to win consistently. Wakefield overall is about the same kind of pitcher, but he saved them in April-May when Beckett and Lester were pitching poorly. Smoltz has a much higher capability, and hopefully he'll show it the next couple of starts. [/quote']

 

Right now, Penny is probably the best in-house option to be the third starter in the playoffs. Smoltz remains a big question mark in terms of health and effectiveness, who know what we'll get, if anything, from Dice-K, Buchholz is a rookie and I'm not sure anyone wants him starting in the playoffs and God knows no one wants Wakefield anywhere near a playoff mound

 

Drew has altered his approach while hitting leadoff' date=' IMHO, he's trying too hard to get on base via walks instead of driving the ball on hitter's counts like he usually does.[/quote']

 

Which is what everyone who's been put in the leadoff spot has tried to do

[Dipre]

Which is what everyone who's been put in the leadoff spot has tried to do

 

Batting leadoff in the majors is much more complicated than people think.

 

Team-first mentality can really hurt a guy's numbers in the 1 spot. Lead-off hitters need to be a bit selfish and go for the hit instead of the walk a lot of them time, and that's why guys like Drew and Pedey are not suited to bat 1st on a regular basis, Youk is a different beast because his batting eye is superior and his contact skills near Pedey level, but over the long run, it might be a better idea to try Ells or Lowrie at leadoff for the time being.

[TheKilo]

What about trading Saito and moving Smoltz to the bullpen instead?

[BoSox21]

but if Smoltz can make it back within range of what he used to be, wouldn't you want him in the playoff rotation?

[Dojji]

How about trading saito and moving Penny to the bullpen? He does have that great velocity after all

[BoSox21]

cause if the playoffs started today, Penny is the third best starter

[Dojji]

Actually if the playoffs started today, Wakefield is the third best starter.

[SoxSport]

Actually if the playoffs started today' date=' Wakefield is the third best starter.[/quote']

 

That's right. Mainly because Dice-K is out. You don't feel comfortable with your starters if Wake is no.3. He's a 4 or 5 in a good rotation. Smoltz can easily be #3 if he can come back.

Right now, he looks pretty good. We'll see tonight in Texas.

[Dutchy]

"The Red Sox have a surplus of starting pitching, and ESPN.com's Buster Olney says it's possible they'll deal Brad Penny for a Grade B prospect in the next couple weeks. We've heard very little about Penny in the last month, but he could fit on a team like the Brewers, who are short on starters.

 

Olney says the Red Sox would almost certainly not offer Penny arbitration after the season, so they could deal him now to get something in return for their investment. Penny doesn't profile as a Type A or B free agent now, so trading him now would be the surest way of obtaining talent in return. However, the Red Sox could keep him to maintain their enviable rotation depth."

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

[BSN07]

What about trading Saito and moving Smoltz to the bullpen instead?

 

I honestly think the pitcher to trade right now is Saito. He's probably going to be a "type A" FA. That sounds great, but it might be Juan Cruz all over again. Him knowing that he might just except arbitration. With his arm issues and with the uncertainty of knowing if they will get picks for him, I'd say move him sooner rather then later.

 

There are plenty of teams looking for RP. Sherrill is the top name out there probably. Once/if he's traded the teams that couldn't pull it off will probably be interested in Saito.

 

Smoltz could fill in the BP if he can't get going in the rotation. And who knows they might bring up Buchholz and Bowden and work them in out of the BP like they have done with other young pitchers. Getting them experience and limiting there IP. Just a thought.

 

Careful, your starting to think like me.

[Dutchy]

The Globe recently had a poll on what to do with Buchholz. 3% of the people who responded said we should keep him in the minors.

 

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2009/07/globe_100_what_1.html

[BSN07]

The Globe recently had a poll on what to do with Buchholz. 3% of the people who responded said we should keep him in the minors.

 

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2009/07/globe_100_what_1.html

 

And out of those polled, how many were MLB GM's?

 

 

I'd imagine Theo wouldn't mind Buchholz in the Majors. But the reason Buchholz is still in AAA is because the FO did their job well, and supplied the team with 5 quality SP. He will get his chance eventually.

[Dutchy]

And out of those polled, how many were MLB GM's?

 

 

I'd imagine Theo wouldn't mind Buchholz in the Majors. But the reason Buchholz is still in AAA is because the FO did their job well, and supplied the team with 5 quality SP. He will get his chance eventually.

 

I don't know, they didn't list names. Probably like 70 or 80?

[BSN07]

I don't know' date=' they didn't list names. Probably like 70 or 80?[/quote']