Jason Bay, Redsox ready to talk

[VA Sox Fan]

We will still have an exclusive window of negotiation after the World Series. And it's not like we're in a horrible position should he leave. We have a bunch of leftover salary to sign another guy like Matt Holliday or Brian Giles (Crawford and Dye both have options which will likely be picked up). Or we could trade for someone, we have plenty of trade chips.

 

But I really like Jason Bay. I hope he stays.

 

Me too.

[617_suffolkcounty_standup]

If he can hit higher then 260 he will get his money. Not too bothered over this news.

[jacksonianmarch]

The sox will still have exclusive negotiating right for 15 days after the WS. That being said, if Bay waited for an entire season, dont you think he'd wait another 15 days to see what he can get on the open market. As possibly the best hitter on a slim FA market, Bay would be foolish to sign right now.

[Dutchy]

The sox will still have exclusive negotiating right for 15 days after the WS. That being said' date=' if Bay waited for an entire season, dont you think he'd wait another 15 days to see what he can get on the open market. As possibly the best hitter on a slim FA market, Bay would be foolish to sign right now.[/quote']

 

Nobody knows what he'll do after the season's over. It's certainly not anything to worry about right now.

 

BTW Jacko, is this the part of the Red Sox conspiracy where they don't want to pay for Bay so they start releasing unsavory information about him to the press, fake an incident where he pushes over a team secretary and force him to hit his own teammates in the dugout during games?

[ms_sox]

I love Bay, and I want him to stay too.

But I wish everyone (everywhere, not just baseball) was less obsessed with money. 10 million, 15 million, 20 million...how many millions does one need? Stupid macho money 'fairness' competition. Me, I'd sign with a team I wanted to play with. If Bay wanted to play w/another team for reasons of his own beyond cash, I'd be fine with it. Oh well, whatever, guess I'm old fashioned about fortunes.

 

It makes me wonder if the lauded low-budget handling of Tampa will last very long. If they keep winning well enough, I kind of doubt it.

[YAZMAN]

The sox will still have exclusive negotiating right for 15 days after the WS. That being said' date=' if Bay waited for an entire season, dont you think he'd wait another 15 days to see what he can get on the open market. As possibly the best hitter on a slim FA market, Bay would be foolish to sign right now.[/quote']

 

 

Which one is this on the chart?

[Dipre]

My little addendum comes in handy.

 

 

[table]Topic|Team|Content

Prospect|Yankees|The player in question is made of 150% pure awesomeness. Fear us.

Prospect|Sox|He could be good, but this is why he won't be.

Signing|Yankees|This is the missing piece. We'll win 160 games, and the umps will screw us out of 2.

Signing|Sox|Risky move, overpaid here, they'll regret this.

Injury|Yankees|They don't get hurt. Hypothetically, if they did, the recovery will be speedy with no impact to ability.

Injury|Sox|Everyone is a ticking time bomb. Once hurt, they'll never heal right.

Pending FA|Yankees|He will surely sign with the Yankees, or if not, good riddance to bad rubbish

Pending FA|Sox|He will reject any deal with Boston and sign with New York[/table]

 

Doiji deserves all the credit.

[YAZMAN]

Doiji deserves all the credit.

 

Excellent.

[SCM33]

Bay is not worth the money he wants.

 

Holliday cannot possibly be as bad as the season he is having in Oakland. Holliday will cost maybe half of what Bay will.

 

Holliday runs better, fields better, and will most certainly hit better in our lineup, remember Oakland is the WORST offensive team in the majors, there is no reason to pitch to him.

 

Some will argue that Holliday put up those numbers in the inflated coors field, but coors field's offensive numbers have been much closer to normal with the humidifier they use, and Boston is as close to the American League version of Coors field (favorable to offense).

 

If we sign Holliday, and he returns to his old form, then he is the best offensive signing FA possible.

[BoSox21]

The sox will still have exclusive negotiating right for 15 days after the WS. That being said' date=' if Bay waited for an entire season, dont you think he'd wait another 15 days to see what he can get on the open market. As possibly the best hitter on a slim FA market, Bay would be foolish to sign right now.[/quote']

 

is it entirely possible in your slanted, biased mind that Bay just doesnt wanna negotiate while he's trying to break out of his s*****, s***** slump?

[pedroia_the_destroyah53]

Bay is not worth the money he wants.

 

Holliday cannot possibly be as bad as the season he is having in Oakland. Holliday will cost maybe half of what Bay will.

 

Holliday runs better, fields better, and will most certainly hit better in our lineup, remember Oakland is the WORST offensive team in the majors, there is no reason to pitch to him.

 

Some will argue that Holliday put up those numbers in the inflated coors field, but coors field's offensive numbers have been much closer to normal with the humidifier they use, and Boston is as close to the American League version of Coors field (favorable to offense).

 

If we sign Holliday, and he returns to his old form, then he is the best offensive signing FA possible.

 

 

Good point, Holliday may come at a semi-reduced price with his numbers this year. I like Bay alot but it might be a cheaper route to sign Holliday provided he can actually hit again. Still, I hope Bay comes back at a good deal for all involved.

[SCM33]

Good point' date=' Holliday may come at a semi-reduced price with his numbers this year. I like Bay alot but it might be a cheaper route to sign Holliday provided he can actually hit again. Still, I hope Bay comes back at a good deal for all involved.[/quote']

 

If Holliday can even provide 75% of what Bay is doing this year, its a better deal for Boston. Holliday is the better player overall, hes just had a bad offensive year on a team that can barely hit .240 as a team. Why pitch to Holliday when everyone else are so horrible?

[Dutchy]

If Holliday can even provide 75% of what Bay is doing this year' date=' its a better deal for Boston. Holliday is the better player overall, hes just had a bad offensive year on a team that can barely hit .240 as a team. Why pitch to Holliday when everyone else are so horrible?[/quote']

 

Holliday's swing was made for Boston, and he'll likely be the cheaper player even though he's the cheaper baserunner and fielder by far. But I still like Bay.

[msubulldogs21]

even though he's the cheaper baserunner and fielder by far

 

Interesting.

[Dutchy]

Interesting.

 

I'd be happy to show you the stats to back them up when I get sober tomorrow.

[617_suffolkcounty_standup]

I see Bay struck out like 3 times again. He wants more then we are offering him?? Give him ugats that greedy bastard.

[example1]

is it entirely possible in your slanted' date=' biased mind that Bay just doesnt wanna negotiate while he's trying to break out of his s*****, s***** slump?[/quote']

 

Do you really think the current slump plays into it? I think the contract would be discussed on both sides with reference to his career body of work, not some short-term slump. The Red Sox will focus on his career because they can't bank on 2009 production for the rest of his contract; the Bay team will focus on his career numbers because they know this too, and because his career has been a pretty good one.

 

The numbers don't lie, this guy's an All-Star and a very good player. At the same time, both the Sox FO and Bay's camp must know he's not quite as good as the beginning of the season would have us believe.

[TedWilliams101]

Could we ship JD Drew out of town and make his stupid contract disappear and sign both, Holliday and Bay? (I can dream, right?)

 

His home/away splits do scare the hell out of me, though:

Home: 400 G 89 HR 331 RBI 254 SO .348 AVG .417 OBP .626 SLG 1.043 OPS

Away : 384 G 48 HR 197 RBI 307 SO .281 AVG .351 OBP .450 SLG .801 OPS

[example1]

Could we ship JD Drew out of town and make his stupid contract disappear and sign both, Holliday and Bay? (I can dream, right?)

 

His home/away splits do scare the hell out of me, though:

Home: 400 G 89 HR 331 RBI 254 SO .348 AVG .417 OBP .626 SLG 1.043 OPS

Away : 384 G 48 HR 197 RBI 307 SO .281 AVG .351 OBP .450 SLG .801 OPS

 

No, but my guess is that they can get one or the other depending on how hard they push. Holliday's home and away numbers may be a bit concerning, but Fenway isn't a bad hitters park or homefield for hitters. If he puts up numbers anywhere near his career home field average then his production will be very, very good. Especially on a team with the OBP skills of the Red Sox, where he will be encouraged to be patient and accentuate his patience. He should project as a more productive JD Drew.

 

I would probably offer Holliday a 5 year deal around 15 m a year, hoping to have him as part of the lineup until age 35.

[TedWilliams101]

See, I'm not sure Holliday is worth the risk of a 5 year/$75 million deal. I went and compared Holliday's home/away splits to a bunch of similar hitters (Bay, Hawpe, Wright, Matsui, Miguel Cabrera, Abreu) as wells as a ton of others (most of the elite) and found that the ALL posted close stats at home vs away. It seems that most good/great hitters will perform roughly the same on the road as at home.

 

Now, I also looked up the stats of a bunch of Rockies hitters and the majority had HUGE differences in the home/away split. Todd Helton, Garrett Atkins, Tulowitski, Vinny Castilla, etc. I found that they had ridiculous numbers at home and very average to below average on the road. The average difference in OPS is pretty astounding. Helton: 1.106/.890, Atkins:.901/.738, Tulowitski: .863/.724, Castilla: .989/.797 (actually, that .797 INCLUDES Coors field. Its his 490 games at Coors compared to his career total). That's a combined difference of 0.178 (not including Holliday).

 

The full team splits of the Rockies reflect this, although I'm not sure that is all that telling (plenty of Sox teams were also terrible on the road). However, I don't think you can ignore the fact that every good hitter (except Hawpe, he's the only Rockie's power hitter with similar home/away splits) has been significantly worse on the road.

 

Although Holliday could just be going through a funk or adjusting to the league, his stats this season just about match his career road stats. Maybe Fenway could make him mash like at Coors, maybe not. I certainly don't think it's worth risking more than $8-$10 million a year.

[Cocos Disciples]

Could we ship JD Drew out of town and make his stupid contract disappear and sign both, Holliday and Bay? (I can dream, right?)

 

His home/away splits do scare the hell out of me, though:

Home: 400 G 89 HR 331 RBI 254 SO .348 AVG .417 OBP .626 SLG 1.043 OPS

Away : 384 G 48 HR 197 RBI 307 SO .281 AVG .351 OBP .450 SLG .801 OPS

 

That would be pretty stupid. No way we wouldn't have to eat some of Drew's salary.

[example1]

Now, I also looked up the stats of a bunch of Rockies hitters and the majority had HUGE differences in the home/away split. Todd Helton, Garrett Atkins, Tulowitski, Vinny Castilla, etc. I found that they had ridiculous numbers at home and very average to below average on the road. The average difference in OPS is pretty astounding. Helton: 1.106/.890, Atkins:.901/.738, Tulowitski: .863/.724, Castilla: .989/.797 (actually, that .797 INCLUDES Coors field. Its his 490 games at Coors compared to his career total). That's a combined difference of 0.178 (not including Holliday).

 

The full team splits of the Rockies reflect this, although I'm not sure that is all that telling (plenty of Sox teams were also terrible on the road). However, I don't think you can ignore the fact that every good hitter (except Hawpe, he's the only Rockie's power hitter with similar home/away splits) has been significantly worse on the road.

 

Although Holliday could just be going through a funk or adjusting to the league, his stats this season just about match his career road stats. Maybe Fenway could make him mash like at Coors, maybe not. I certainly don't think it's worth risking more than $8-$10 million a year.

 

I look at Holliday's OBP and his consistent ability to get on base despite his AVG fluctuations and see a hitter who has good plate control. These days I think the power numbers fluctuate wildly with PED concerns, and adding Coors Field to the mix only complicates it more. Your statistics and home/road splits say that either players have a hard time hitting on the road when they are Rockies, or that the Rockies have never really had a good hitter. I'm willing to bet that Holliday and Helton and a few others are actually good hitters.

 

As much as Colorado inflates some offensive numbers, Oakland inflates pitchers numbers and is a hard place for him to prove that he can hit outside of Colorado.

 

My larger point is that this set up--going from hitters mecca to hitters hell--and having some power struggles means that Holliday may be undervalued. A year ago people had he and Bay neck-and-neck in terms of what they were likely to make as FAs. Now that isn't the case, but Holliday is younger and a better fielder and runner.

[TedWilliams101]

Exactly. If we could sign Holliday to a cheap contract, I'd be all for it. I just don't like the risk factor. If its a matter of Bay at $15 million a year vs Holliday at $8-$10 million, I'd have to go with Bay. If we can get Holliday for under $8 million, than I wouldn't be too sad to see Bay walk, especially if we added some power to the corner infield as well.

 

Also, the splits I looked at were ONLY for the top hitters (or good+) for Colorado. I ignored the average to below-average hitters because it is normal for them to be worse on the road than at home. I don't think Helton, Atkins, Tulowitski, and Castilla to be bad hitters, I just think that they aren't as good as their numbers suggest. It could just be that those guys don't hit well on the road, but it makes more sense that it is the ballpark, not the players.

 

Compare the Rockies top hitters splits to the Red Sox good hitters (of the last 8 years) and it becomes more apparent. While the team hitting DOES perform notably worse on the road, the good hitters don't. Manny Ramirez, Ortiz, Damon, Bill Mueller, Nomar, Nixon, Youkilis, and Bay all have very similar numbers on the road as at home (some have a slight drop, but it is slight, nowhere near as dramatic as the Rockies). The only guy that has a more drastic drop on the road is, funny enough, Pedroia. The Monster REALLY helps him (also Nomar, but to a lesser degree).

 

It's definitely a worry, but only when you talk about signing the guy to big money. If he comes cheap, it won't matter. If he is really just a .281, .351, .450, .801 hitter than $6 or $7 million wouldn't be a bad contract, especially considering he is pretty good defensively.

[example1]

Exactly. If we could sign Holliday to a cheap contract' date=' I'd be all for it. I just don't like the risk factor. If its a matter of Bay at $15 million a year vs Holliday at $8-$10 million, I'd have to go with Bay. If we can get Holliday for under $8 million, than I would be too sad to see Bay walk, especially if we added some power to the corner infield as well.[/quote']

 

I think Bay is likely to be more like 16-18m and Holliday may be more like 12-14m. What would you do then?

 

My guess is that if Bay would only cost 1m more than Drew then the deal would be done by now.

[SoxSport]

My view is they will have to pay Bay closer to Drew money than Youkilis money. It hasn't helped them with Bay that they were willing to pay Texeira how much? before the season. Bay has turned out to be the power hitter he was in Pittsburgh and more in Boston, though he has slumped a bit lately. Clearly, they need him in the middle of their lineup. Right now, Youks looks like his equal, but he wasn't the established power hitter he is now when they extended him at $10 mil per--what is now a bargain. As for Drew, he received the Boras bonus--every Boras client costs more.

 

I think they'll have to be in the 5/70 range to get Bay. Why? Because he can easily get that on the open market. Nickle and diming one of your top hitters doesn't make much sense to me. Theo has wasted more than that signing FA busts at SS in recent years.

[TedWilliams101]

I think Bay is likely to be more like 16-18m and Holliday may be more like 12-14m. What would you do then?

 

My guess is that if Bay would only cost 1m more than Drew then the deal would be done by now.

 

It's tough. If I were Theo (which, thankfully, I'm not) I would sign him now if it was for $16 million a season or less. If he wants more money, than I wait until later into the season or after the season. If he is producing through August or finishes the season well, I'd probably give him the $18 million. I doubt I go more than that (unless, of course the Yankees were the other bidders, then its a problem. I don't think you can let Bay and Tex go to the Yankees without adding some serious power ourselves, ie Holliday + corner infield power).

 

I think the only way I would give Holliday $10+ million a season if A. he finishes the season strong or B. Theo REALLY thinks Fenway would be ideal for his swing.

[BSN07]

My view is they will have to pay Bay closer to Drew money than Youkilis money. It hasn't helped them with Bay that they were willing to pay Texeira how much? before the season. Bay has turned out to be the power hitter he was in Pittsburgh and more in Boston, though he has slumped a bit lately. Clearly, they need him in the middle of their lineup. Right now, Youks looks like his equal, but he wasn't the established power hitter he is now when they extended him at $10 mil per--what is now a bargain. As for Drew, he received the Boras bonus--every Boras client costs more.

 

I think they'll have to be in the 5/70 range to get Bay. Why? Because he can easily get that on the open market. Nickle and diming one of your top hitters doesn't make much sense to me. Theo has wasted more than that signing FA busts at SS in recent years.

 

Why pay him that much? The only other team that will be able to challenge the Sox are the Yankees. IMO I don't see any other team in the league(maybe NYM) giving him more the Dunn type money. If the Sox are offering more and he won't take it, thanks, see ya. The Yankees may pay him 16M +, but I don't see the Sox matching that anyways. And if Bay goes to the Yankees, the Sox will be first in line for Holliday. Which I don't see as being a bad "plan B" really.

[TedWilliams101]

My view is they will have to pay Bay closer to Drew money than Youkilis money. It hasn't helped them with Bay that they were willing to pay Texeira how much? before the season. Bay has turned out to be the power hitter he was in Pittsburgh and more in Boston, though he has slumped a bit lately. Clearly, they need him in the middle of their lineup. Right now, Youks looks like his equal, but he wasn't the established power hitter he is now when they extended him at $10 mil per--what is now a bargain. As for Drew, he received the Boras bonus--every Boras client costs more.

 

I think they'll have to be in the 5/70 range to get Bay. Why? Because he can easily get that on the open market. Nickle and diming one of your top hitters doesn't make much sense to me. Theo has wasted more than that signing FA busts at SS in recent years.

 

The problem with comparing the $18-$20 million a season the Sox were offering Tex to the money Bay should get is that Tex is a better overall player. He has gold glove caliber defense and is a better hitter (and almost 2 years younger). I will admit though, he might also have the benefit of ballpark-inflated numbers (playing TEX and Coors East), as his road splits (OPS in general) are .107 points lower than at home.

 

$14 million is probably just too cheap right now. It would be a good hometown discount, but that's only if Bay is willing. $16-$18 million would probably be about his market price, although when the Yankees get involved, it could always get much higher.

[jacksonianmarch]

You dont see any other team offering more than 2yrs 20 mil for Bay? Put the crackpipe down

[TedWilliams101]

Why pay him that much? The only other team that will be able to challenge the Sox are the Yankees. IMO I don't see any other team in the league(maybe NYM) giving him more the Dunn type money. If the Sox are offering more and he won't take it' date=' thanks, see ya. The Yankees may pay him 16M +, but I don't see the Sox matching that anyways. And if Bay goes to the Yankees, the Sox will be first in line for Holliday. Which I don't see as being a bad "plan B" really.[/quote']

 

I don't think $14 million is "too" much for Bay. That would be cheaper than a lot of similar hitters who got their 2nd or 3rd contract. Tex, Torii Hunter, Arod, Jeter, Beltran, Soriano, Aramis Ramirez, Manny Ramirez, Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Lee, Ichiro, and Helton ALL make more than $16 million a year (most make $18+ million).

 

How on Earth can someone think Bay wouldn't get more than $8 million (from teams other than Yankees/Red Sox) on the open market? That's just absurd. Almost every single one of the top 30 or so hitters in baseball make more than $10 million a year (not including rookie contracts/ renegotiations).