Sox/Bay talking extension

[Dutchy]

This is exactly what it boils down to.

 

You don't think there's any chance he signs with the Red Sox before free agency if they offer him a fair contract?

[Spudboy]

He could be lying, but all he ever talks about is how great the atmosphere is in Boston and how he feeds off the crowd. He doesn't sound like a guy that ever wants to go back to a team that won't be in constant contention. His agent tried to initiate talks with the Red Sox prior to the season.

 

"It’s a situation where he’s loving Boston. It’s a great club and a great organization,” said Nez Balelo of Creative Artists Agency. “He’s a quality player, and I’m sure (the Red Sox) recognize that. Whatever they want to do, I’m sure that we’re all ears.”

 

http://blogs.weei.com/alexspeier/2008/11/05/jason-bay-interested-in-remaining-a-red-sox/

 

I would never expect a player to dis his employers or fan base, especially during a contract year. Look at Vince Wilfork. He'll be gone if they don't pony up. Yet he says nothing but glowing things about it here.

[Spudboy]

You don't think there's any chance he signs with the Red Sox before free agency if they offer him a fair contract?

 

I'd love to think so. But to believe that will happen now is unrealistic. He knows there is big money at stake. And so does his agent (who gets a big cut). They'll wait it out because it's sound business strategy.

[Dutchy]

I'd love to think so. But to believe that will happen now is unrealistic. He knows there is big money at stake. And so does his agent (who gets a big cut). They'll wait it out because it's sound business strategy.

 

Not necessarily. There are quite a few big name corner outfielders who will be free agents. Bay, Holliday, Brian Giles, Vladimir Guerrero. Dye has an option for $12 million. Bay is the only one of those guys that the Yankees would have to surrender draft picks to us for.

 

If the Yankees sign any one of those guys, the market for Bay will fall out. By talking to the Red Sox now, Bay's agent can play off fears that the Yankees might target Bay as their left fielder, and outbid the Red Sox. He could get a higher payout if he waits for free agency, but he also risks making less money.

[example1]

I'd love to think so. But to believe that will happen now is unrealistic. He knows there is big money at stake. And so does his agent (who gets a big cut). They'll wait it out because it's sound business strategy.

 

I'm not sure he will wait it out. If the Red Sox are preparing to make offers there must be a reason. If Bay had stated clearly that he was going to wait then they wouldn't prepare offers. One thing we know about this FO is that they don't like to waste time... they get pissed off whenever they end up doing that.

 

I, for one, think that Bay would take the security of a longterm contract sooner than FA. I think that there ARE atheletes (despite what others here may say) who genuinely like playing in a place like Boston, who see it as an honor and who woul dlike to preserve the ability to do so. Bay seems like one of those guys, though obviously I don't know him at all.

 

Finally, while the sound business strategy is to wait it out to ensure the maximum earning potential, the competing strategy is locking up as much money as possible as quickly as possible. If the Sox come with a 5 year deal of 16, 16, 17, 18, 18 (total of 85/5) with, say, a 2 or 3m signing bonus (to compensate him for the rest of the season) he might sign it as soon as possible fearing an injury or a collapse of the economy.

 

Overall, Bay is a great player. I don't think he's ideal as the centerpiece of this offense, but I think he's a better secondary player than JD Drew has been, even though both have a similar demeanor.

[BSN07]

Not necessarily. There are quite a few big name corner outfielders who will be free agents. Bay, Holliday, Brian Giles, Vladimir Guerrero. Dye has an option for $12 million. Bay is the only one of those guys that the Yankees would have to surrender draft picks to us for.

 

If the Yankees sign any one of those guys, the market for Bay will fall out. By talking to the Red Sox now, Bay's agent can play off fears that the Yankees might target Bay as their left fielder, and outbid the Red Sox. He could get a higher payout if he waits for free agency, but he also risks making less money.

 

Bay easily tops that group. And he will be the premier bat on the market. Holliday is having a horrible season and may have to settle for a 1 year "prove myself" deal. But being he has Boras for an agent, he will get some owner to give him a long term deal. Brian Giles? He isn't even comparable to Bay. Guerrero has a comparable bat. But given the current physical health of his knees, I'd say his a fairly large risk.

 

Don't confuse this years COF market with last seasons. It's not nearly as flooded with big name veterans.

[BoSox21]

heard on TV this morning that the Sox were planning on using Dunn's 2/20 deal as a starting point for negotiations.....a big lolwut if thats true

[a700hitter]

heard on TV this morning that the Sox were planning on using Dunn's 2/20 deal as a starting point for negotiations.....a big lolwut if thats true

I agree. IMO that type of offer will not get the deal done.

[jacksonianmarch]

he'll go to free agency then

[TheKilo]

Two questions:

 

What about this season makes people concerned that Bay is only putting up numbers "in a contract year"? (I don't even buy into this phenomenon, just curious)

 

Why would you start with your best offer with negotiations?

[BoSox21]

You don't start with the best offer and the money might be a good place to start but the years are clearly an insult if that's what they plan on starting with.

[jacksonianmarch]

Two questions:

 

What about this season makes people concerned that Bay is only putting up numbers "in a contract year"? (I don't even buy into this phenomenon, just curious)

 

Why would you start with your best offer with negotiations?

 

you never start with your best offer. That being said, you dont start with an insulting offer.

[TheKilo]

you never start with your best offer. That being said' date=' you dont start with an insulting offer.[/quote']

 

Why is the offer insulting?

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

Why is the offer insulting?

2/20?

[Dojji]

Which probably means it won't be their offer.

 

I have no reason to doubt that Theo has every intention to take care of Bay before the offseason. Right now they have the guy as a captive audience. If he's receptive at all, and his counteroffer is less than $18M/year or so, then they have something to talk about and will probably get it done.

 

The thing is, we don't have that guy who can come up behind Bay and take over in left field, not even in a "let the rookie work it out in the big leagues" sense. If Carter was hitting he'd be that guy maybe, but he isn't hitting. No one else has a prayer of replacing Bay's power. So while Theo'll set a value on the guy, it'll probably be a reasonable value that will get it done with Bay's agent unless Bay really wants to test free agency (which doesn't seem to be the case)

[BoSox21]

offering two years to a 30-year old with a solid history of durability is pretty insulting, especially when they went to four years with a 31-year old Damon, a guy they knew wouldn't be able to play his position for the duration of the deal

[a700hitter]

Not necessarily. There are quite a few big name corner outfielders who will be free agents. Bay, Holliday, Brian Giles, Vladimir Guerrero. Dye has an option for $12 million. Bay is the only one of those guys that the Yankees would have to surrender draft picks to us for.

 

If the Yankees sign any one of those guys, the market for Bay will fall out. By talking to the Red Sox now, Bay's agent can play off fears that the Yankees might target Bay as their left fielder, and outbid the Red Sox. He could get a higher payout if he waits for free agency, but he also risks making less money.

You are right that a lot of things can still happen to lower Bay's FMV. If the Yankees acquire Holliday, they will not need Bay. If the Yankees win the WS, they will not have a lot of pressure to poach our guy. On the other hand if the Yankees get edged out by Toronto or Tampa, they will drive a tractor trailer full of money to Bay's house. Bay could get a little dinged up and finish hitting .265. There's not a lot of .265 hitters making more than $10 million/year. He does have to consider taking guaranteed money now as opposed to waiting, but that would not be a home town discount. That would just be an exercise of business judgment.

 

If the Yankees decide to blow away the market for Bay, I'd be fine with signing Damon to play LF for a couble of years. He still is a good offensive producer, but not with the power of Bay. You wouldn't lose anything in the field. Bay's arm is better, but he is not carrying a gun either. Damon might go for as little as $5- 6 million/year. The $ saved could be spent upgrading another position. Bay is a very very nice player, but he is no cornerstone superstar.

[TheKilo]

offering two years to a 30-year old with a solid history of durability is pretty insulting' date=' especially when they went to four years with a 31-year old Damon, a guy they knew wouldn't be able to play his position for the duration of the deal[/quote']

 

Different economic conditions, you're comparing apples to oranges.

[BoSox21]

I don't think so, not when it comes to the duration of the deal unless Bay has expressed to the FO that he's willing to accept a short-term deal so that he once again becomes a FA in better economic times

[TheKilo]

I don't think so' date=' not when it comes to the duration of the deal unless Bay has expressed to the FO that he's willing to accept a short-term deal so that he once again becomes a FA in better economic times[/quote']

 

What about Dunn's 2/20 offer is insulting?

[BoSox21]

I think the duration is a bit insulting but not so much the money. I think the money is a decent starting point

[TheKilo]

You misunderstand my question - why is Dunn's contract an insulting starting point for Jason Bay?

[BoSox21]

I understand you're trying to bait me into comparing Dunn's production to Bay's but take Raul Ibanez's deal for example, if a 36 year old gets a three-year deal, why wouldn't a logical starting point for Bay's deal be AT LEAST four years?

 

As far as comparing Dunn and Bay goes, I understand they're extremely similar in terms of offensive production over their careers but Bay gives you that production at more of a premium position and has more dimensions to his game, specifically base-running

[TheKilo]

Premium position? Last I checked Dunn and Bay both play LF.

 

Both are below average defenders (although Dunn is much worse)

Both are above average offensive players (I'd give the edge to Dunn)

 

How much is baserunning really worth?

 

A guy who hit 40 HRs the past four seasons just signed a deal for 2/20. Why is it insulting that Bay's negotiations are started there?

[Dojji]

Dunn was a victim of the market. To expect anyone else to be matching Dunn's market-depressed contract is silly.

[BoSox21]

Dunn is a LF that has absolutely no business playing LF so I'm treating him as a 1B/DH.

 

To me, it's insulting because there's no way Bay will get less than four years unless, again, he wants to become a free agent again in better economic times. I also think there's no way Jason Bay will make it to February '10 without having a deal the way Dunn did and thus, won't have to settle for a lesser deal.

 

Dunn's market didn't include baseball's big spenders. They were both covered at DH and 1B. Both Boston and New York will have a need for the guy who will be the best corner OFer on the free agent market.

[TheKilo]

Dunn was a victim of the market. To expect anyone else to be matching Dunn's market-depressed contract is silly.

 

I missed the memo where everyone said the economy was supposed to improve by November.

 

Dunn is a LF that has absolutely no business playing LF so I'm treating him as a 1B/DH.

 

Except he plays LF.

 

To me, it's insulting because there's no way Bay will get less than four years unless, again, he wants to become a free agent again in better economic times. I also think there's no way Jason Bay will make it to February '10 without having a deal the way Dunn did and thus, won't have to settle for a lesser deal.

 

How do we know this?

 

Abreu was supposed to get more than one year. Dunn more than two. But they didn't.

 

2/20 isn't where negotiations will end, but it's hardly insulting to begin there.

 

Dunn's market didn't include baseball's big spenders. They were both covered at DH and 1B. Both Boston and New York will have a need for the guy who will be the best corner OFer on the free agent market.

 

This is an excellent point and one absolutely worth considering.

 

It doesn't mean the opening offer of 2/20 is insulting.

[Dojji]

I missed the memo where everyone said the economy was supposed to improve by November.

 

I said the MARKET, not the ECONOMY, genius. None of the big market teams were looking for a LF meaning Dunn had to scramble around among the small markets for an offer. TOtally different with Bay.

 

If the Yankees had been signing left fielders when Dunn came along they would have paid him a lot more than 2/10.

[Dutchy]

For the record, the Red Sox were approached by Bay's agent prior to the season, in an attempt to get a deal done. They offered Dunn's current contract as a starting point, and the two sides got nowhere. We're going to have to start with a figure more like 4/60 if we want to have serious negotiations.

[Mr Crunchy]

This is a good argument with 2 men who have played in obscure towns over their careers.

That bandbox in cincinatti is

Dunn has hit 40 5 xs? but his rbi totals are rather low for a 40hr guy, 46hrs 102rbi? 40-101. 40-106.

Of course theyre beautiful stats but .245 avg? a lot of Ks and a lot of solo Hrs are on the sheet.

This year theyre more in line with the norm, 18-56 or something like that?

Bays hr#s are lower but after watching him here hes been f***ing deadly after the 7th inning and seems always to provide big hit after big hit here.

The Sox Cubs and the Yanks generally set the market and if you're lucky enough to be the right guy in the right place then you'll get paid...Abreu came in real low this year as the market has seen a correction with all those unsold seats behind homeplate in NY but do you want to see Jason Bay as a free agent this fall?...f***ing pay him and be done with it, they already priced me out of the ballpark and their highest paid guy makes 14M,when they climb into Bay and then Becketts new deals they'll be looking at 5-90 for Bay and God knows what they do with Beckett if he struts thru the next 4 months like a peacock and we win again....

Our owners can buy time with another ring and NY can do the same thing.