Catch-All Papelbon Thread

[TheKilo]

Considering his BB/9 this season is precisely twice his career average' date=' minors and majors, I see his 4.8 BB/9 this season to be nothing more than a statistical anomaly and that being said, I'm impressed that he's found a way to maintain an exceptional save conversion % and ERA while he's weathering this storm.[/quote']

 

Anomaly, or regression? Ask CMW

[BoSox21]

Papelbon doesn't have an injury excuse to fall back on. And honestly, do you really believe Papelbon is suffering a drastic regression in control or do you believe it's an anomaly that will rectify itself?

[jacksonianmarch]

Top-of the line stuff and ice watered is a rare combination indeed.

 

You're 100% right, the excellent closer is indeed a difficult-to-find breed, however, it would not be impossible for the Sox to find another one of those if Papelbon were to depart.

 

They can find another closer. Thats my point. See, part of Billy Beane's moneyball theory is to find value where others arent looking. And one of his theories was to nix the idea of a true closer and instead go with a good reliever in that spot. That reliever would then get saves about 75-80% of the time and magically their value would climb. The basis behind his theory is that very few truly dominant closers exist and so many teams are dying for relief help come the break. So, when he takes this good reliever and backs him with the amt of saves he now has, he has improved the players value and has a chance to get much more in return for said player. Both the yankees and the sox have that truly elite closer.

 

Lets put it this way...

 

In 2006, Papelbon was good for a 85% Sv conversion rate

In 2007, Papelbon was good for a 93% Sv conversion rate

In 2008, Papelbon was good for a 89% Sv conversion rate

In 2009, Papelbon is good for a 94% Sv conversion rate

 

Since taking the closer's role, he has saved 129 games and blown only 15 of them for a total rate of 90%. League average in terms of Sv % is 64%. Now that includes middle relievers who give up the lead in the 7th and 8th, but you get my drift. But lets take a tally of the Sv % of the top 10 closers from 2008 not including Paps...

 

1. KRod- 89% in 2008, career 86%

2. Valverde- 86% in 2008, career 85%

3. Soria- 93% in 2008, career 89%

4. Lidge- 100% in 2008, career 84%

5. Wilson- 87% in 2008, career 85%

6. Rivera- 98% in 2008, career 91% (blown save stat started getting recorded in 2002)

7. Nathan- 87% in 2008, career 90%

8. Wood- 85% in 2008, career 85%

9. Cordero- 85% in 2008, career 82%

10. Ryan- 89% in 2008, career 84%

 

So look at this list. These are the top third in baseball in terms of closers. Only Rivera has a higher career save conversion rate and only Nathan can claim to be in the 90 percent range. If one assumes that a closer on the red sox will get 60 save opps a season, then the difference between 85% and 90% is 3 games. A 3 game swing in the standings is big. The sox lost the division by 2 games last yr, they won the division by 2 games in 2007 and the yankees had the division by 2 games in 2004. 3 games in the grand scheme of things is huge, and that is a per season difference.

[jacksonianmarch]

Anomaly' date=' or regression? Ask CMW[/quote']

 

I think he can attribute it to a few things. Most of the times he got beat, he was throwing the splitter. I think the inconsistency of the splitty and the fact that he is working in a couple other pitches makes me think this will eventually pass. I honestly think that he is trying to increase his marketability and long term performance by adding on a good slider. If he can add on a closer's slider, he'll age better as the heat starts to cool down. The one thing that tells me Paps is still in that elite category is what he does when he does get against the wall. He goes to the ched and nobody can hit it when he elevates it, but everyone swings because it looks like a strike coming out of his hand. As long as he has that, you dont need to worry

[Mr Crunchy]

Ya but MJ some guys close with 3 run leads say in Sandiego vs Sanfran with little pressure and then others are trying to get thru the sox or ny lineups with a 1 run lead..

A statistical problem to analyze for sure, Krod is great but he pitched in the AL West, not the AL East.

Paps is the man here. with a 1 run lead hes the man I want out there for us but what will he be commanding in the future, whats his health like and who do we have to replace him?

John Wettland closed out the 96 season for Ny and won the MVP I believe but due to riveras rise Wettland was expendable...Randy Meyers closed for the 90 reds but they had 100MPH guy rob dibble and norm charlton behind him, Myers went on and Dibble didnt fare nearly as well inspite of this gas being hotter...Its a mental game more than any other spot on the roster, some got it,some dont.

[Spudboy]

I think he can attribute it to a few things. Most of the times he got beat' date=' he was throwing the splitter. I think the inconsistency of the splitty and the fact that he is working in a couple other pitches makes me think this will eventually pass. I honestly think that he is trying to increase his marketability and long term performance by adding on a good slider. If he can add on a closer's slider, he'll age better as the heat starts to cool down. The one thing that tells me Paps is still in that elite category is what he does when he does get against the wall. He goes to the ched and[b'] nobody can hit it when he elevates it, but everyone swings because it looks like a strike coming out of his hand. As long as he has that, you dont need to worry

[/b]

 

I've wondered why batters swing at elevated fast balls.

 

Thanks.

[jacksonianmarch]

[/b]

 

I've wondered why batters swing at elevated fast balls.

 

Thanks.

 

I hated them. I was a righty hitter, but I was much more like a lefty in that I loved the ball low and in. I could turn on that just as well as anyone out there. There was a pitcher from U Hartford that I grew up with. He was a 5'6" lefty who threw high 80s, but every one of his fastballs seemed to rise as he was throwing them. They didnt actually rise though, it was just that his spin and motion caused the ball to not drop as much as a standard pitch would. So while it looks like its rising, it is an optical illusion because your mind is assuming the ball will drop with gravity like everything else. So when it is dropping at a slightly slower rate it looked like it was rising right out of his hand. It was amazing. Every ball he threw looked like a cockshot and every time I swung, the ball ended up at chin level. If paps has that pitch at 96mph and from batter reactions it looks like he does, then I dont know how people lay off it or hit it

[example1]

They can find another closer. Thats my point. See, part of Billy Beane's moneyball theory is to find value where others arent looking. And one of his theories was to nix the idea of a true closer and instead go with a good reliever in that spot. That reliever would then get saves about 75-80% of the time and magically their value would climb. The basis behind his theory is that very few truly dominant closers exist and so many teams are dying for relief help come the break. So, when he takes this good reliever and backs him with the amt of saves he now has, he has improved the players value and has a chance to get much more in return for said player. Both the yankees and the sox have that truly elite closer.

 

Lets put it this way...

 

In 2006, Papelbon was good for a 85% Sv conversion rate

In 2007, Papelbon was good for a 93% Sv conversion rate

In 2008, Papelbon was good for a 89% Sv conversion rate

In 2009, Papelbon is good for a 94% Sv conversion rate

 

Since taking the closer's role, he has saved 129 games and blown only 15 of them for a total rate of 90%. League average in terms of Sv % is 64%. Now that includes middle relievers who give up the lead in the 7th and 8th, but you get my drift. But lets take a tally of the Sv % of the top 10 closers from 2008 not including Paps...

 

1. KRod- 89% in 2008, career 86%

2. Valverde- 86% in 2008, career 85%

3. Soria- 93% in 2008, career 89%

4. Lidge- 100% in 2008, career 84%

5. Wilson- 87% in 2008, career 85%

6. Rivera- 98% in 2008, career 91% (blown save stat started getting recorded in 2002)

7. Nathan- 87% in 2008, career 90%

8. Wood- 85% in 2008, career 85%

9. Cordero- 85% in 2008, career 82%

10. Ryan- 89% in 2008, career 84%

 

So look at this list. These are the top third in baseball in terms of closers. Only Rivera has a higher career save conversion rate and only Nathan can claim to be in the 90 percent range. If one assumes that a closer on the red sox will get 60 save opps a season, then the difference between 85% and 90% is 3 games. A 3 game swing in the standings is big. The sox lost the division by 2 games last yr, they won the division by 2 games in 2007 and the yankees had the division by 2 games in 2004. 3 games in the grand scheme of things is huge, and that is a per season difference.

 

 

Good post Jacksonian. I agree that Papelbon is elite, I think everyone else does too. The problem is that he may demand a king's ransom and the Sox aren't likely to pay it. They would much prefer to do a longer, more reasonable deal a la Lester, Pedroia, Youkilis and they would have prefered to start that yesterday, or the day before. Papelbon is clearly taking a risk and in the process he's initially saving the Sox money, but will get his payday at the end if he stays healthy and productive.

 

I won't be one of the people jumping off a cliff if Papelbon leaves BOS for NYY, because I can see that scenario coming years in advance and am prepared for it already. I understand and support the Sox not paying over value for FAs (especially when they offer those FAs lots of money years before they would make it otherwise and offer them some very well paid job security). Until they get completely burned by the strategy of not paying above all other team's FA prices I just won't worry about it.

 

I could also see a team like the Cubs paying a lot of money for a guy like Papelbon if they still haven't won their WS. They have lacked that consistency at the back of their pen, they have the money...

[a700hitter]

Good post Jacksonian. I agree that Papelbon is elite' date=' I think everyone else does too. The problem is that he may demand a king's ransom and the Sox aren't likely to pay it. They would much prefer to do a longer, more reasonable deal a la Lester, Pedroia, Youkilis and they would have prefered to start that yesterday, or the day before. Papelbon is clearly taking a risk and in the process he's initially saving the Sox money, but will get his payday at the end if he stays healthy and productive. [/quote']He can demand a King's Ransom, but this is a business and he is only get the market price for an elite closer. Look at jacko's list. The salaries of those guys is the market. He may get a little more than most of them, because he has done better. There's only one team that has disregard for market values--the Yankees. The rest of the teams have no interest in reseting the market, because it would have a detrimental downstream effect of increasing the market values of their other players. Unless the Yankees blow away the market, Papelbon will get a market value contract. The Sox are in a better position than most teams to pay market value.

[example1]

He can demand a King's Ransom' date=' but this is a business and he is only get the market price for an elite closer. Look at jacko's list. The salaries of those guys is the market. He may get a little more than most of them, because he has done better. There's only one team that has disregard for market values--the Yankees. The rest of the teams have no interest in reseting the market, because it would have a detrimental downstream effect of increasing the market values of their other players. Unless the Yankees blow away the market, Papelbon will get a market value contract. The Sox are in a better position than most teams to pay market value.[/quote']

 

For the most part I agree with you (wow, shocker!! ) I guess I should have said "Sox Value" instead of "Market Value", because:

1) the Sox set a value for their players and tend to stick to it. I would argue that plenty of teams exceed market value all the time in order to convince a player to sign with them, even if only by $1-2m a year, and

 

2) Value is relative to the current quality of the team. As we've discussed so many times before, a team that is likely to make the playoffs doesn't have as much to gain financially from a big-ticket player as a team that is on the cusp of making the playoffs (playoffs is like gold, financially). The Sox may see Papelbon's wins as the difference between winning the division/cementing the WC, or they may think they can replace it elsewhere. Long story short, Papelbon's value to the Red Sox is higher than to a team like the Royals, and could be lower than to a team like, say, the Angels, Cardinals or Cubs, where his 3-6 extra wins could mean multiple years of playoff appearances.

 

It might therefore be in the Cubs interest to pay above whatever other teams are willing to offer to get the guy that they want. Similarily, I would argue that the Mets saw K-Rod not as a FA in a vacuum, but as a final piece to their bullpen troubles which have haunted them and kept them from reaching their potential.

 

The Sox are likely to see Papelbon similarily to what Jacko presented him: about 3 wins above the "average-good" closer, maybe 1-2 wins above a guy like Bobby Jenks, maybe 6-8 Wins above Replacement Closer, maybe more, maybe less.

 

Then they will look at those wins and see what they should spend for those wins above the cost of the average FA closer and offer that amount. Anything above that amount and, IMO, they will believe they are just throwing money down the FA toilet.

[a700hitter]

I look at it from a different perspective. I think you have to look at the total invested in team payroll. If the payroll is between $125-140 million annually and it is likely that a division or playoff spot could be decided by 3-4 games, spending an additional $2-3 million annually on a closer that is most likely to get you those wins would seem like a prudent investment. You would be increasing payroll by around 2.5% to give the team a great chance of going to the playoffs and competing for the championship.

[Dipre]

I hated them. I was a righty hitter' date=' but I was much more like a lefty in that I loved the ball low and in. I could turn on that just as well as anyone out there. There was a pitcher from U Hartford that I grew up with. He was a 5'6" lefty who threw high 80s, but every one of his fastballs seemed to rise as he was throwing them. They didnt actually rise though, it was just that his spin and motion caused the ball to not drop as much as a standard pitch would. So while it looks like its rising, it is an optical illusion because your mind is assuming the ball will drop with gravity like everything else. So when it is dropping at a slightly slower rate it looked like it was rising right out of his hand. It was amazing. Every ball he threw looked like a cockshot and every time I swung, the ball ended up at chin level. If paps has that pitch at 96mph and from batter reactions it looks like he does, then I dont know how people lay off it or hit it[/quote']

 

I feel you, i'm a lefty, but i like high inside fastballs, and there's this old timer who lives around my house and he throws 102 MPH in underhand softball and it always looks like it's rising, i have never once been able to make contact with that rising fastball.

 

In all honesty you could say he's my "daddy", in 10 ABs, he's K'ed me 9 times lol.

[a700hitter]

For the most part I agree with you (wow, shocker!! ) I guess I should have said "Sox Value" instead of "Market Value", because:

1) the Sox set a value for their players and tend to stick to it. I would argue that plenty of teams exceed market value all the time in order to convince a player to sign with them, even if only by $1-2m a year,

I don't disagree, but what happened to this process when they signed Lugo (who had been benched in LA) or even when they signed Drew? They do at times spend a little foolishly.

[Rdsxmbnt]

I don't disagree' date=' but what happened to this process when they signed Lugo (who had been benched in LA) or even when they signed Drew? They do at times spend a little foolishly.[/quote']

 

I don't think they left the process with either of those guys. People have to remember that while Lugo had a horrible ~150 AB for the Dodgers, he also had a .870 OPS in ~270 AB for the Rays. And before that he was a pretty consistent .760 OPS SS who had already proved himself in the AL East. For all intents and purposes 9mil was not that bad for what we were expecting. The team guessed that the previous 1500 AB before his stint in LA were what we were going to get. They guessed wrong, it happens, but I dont see a breakdown in philosophy here.

 

Same with Drew, who has actually been pretty good when he's played. We knew he was a risk to miss some time, and he has, but that was a calculated risk as with every move this organization makes.

[example1]

Same with Drew, who has actually been pretty good when he's played. We knew he was a risk to miss some time, and he has, but that was a calculated risk as with every move this organization makes.

 

I think Drew flies under the radar, but I have to say that I'm really glad the Sox have him. He has produced steadily over the time that he's been with the Sox, he comes up with big hits (because he's consistent, not clutch necessarily), he plays a solid and difficult RF in Fenway, he can hit anywhere in the top 5 spots in the order, he has been able to manage a .388 OBP in BOS (in a tough league), and although his OPS of .857 is somewhat below his career averages, it is pretty good. Furthermore, in 2007 (nearly half of his BOS ABs) he had a pretty weak .796 OPS, and he managed to salvage his season with post-season performance. His 2008 (.927) and 2009 (.871) are both very good seasons.

 

Overall, Drew has been steady and is the type of player who doesn't seem phased by pressure, good pitchers, playoffs, etc., He's a bit injured/not tough for my tastes, but overall I wouldn't call his contract an albatross the way I would have in 2007.

[BoSox21]

I think people for the most part made up their minds about Drew the day the contract was signed and the pitiful .423 SLG he had in 2007. Boston fans above all like guys to appear to go all out and wear their hearts on their sleeve and if fans stepped back and looked at Drew's numbers during his tenure here without putting a face or name on the numbers, they'd see a pretty damn solid RFer.

[Cocos Disciples]

I think people for the most part made up their minds about Drew the day the contract was signed and the pitiful .423 SLG he had in 2007. Boston fans above all like guys to appear to go all out and wear their hearts on their sleeve and if fans stepped back and looked at Drew's numbers during his tenure here without putting a face or name on the numbers' date=' they'd see a pretty damn solid RFer.[/quote']

 

Unfortunately this is true for a lot of people. Others, myself included, realize that JD Drew is the man. And he most certainly is.

[schillingouttheks]

Long live JD Drew. I haven't changed my avatar in awhile.

[Dojji]

In my mind, Drew earned his entire contract with the 14 Million Dollar Grand Slam. The game was a blowout, but if Drew fails in that spot I'm not sure it is one, and Carmona was great that year. The grannie made forcing a Game 7 a snap and ultimately was a big factor in getting us to the Series.

 

If he keeps killing the ball in the postseason like he did in 2007 and 2008 I see no reason why Drew's tenure in Boston won't be considered at least a mixed success.

[Mr Crunchy]

As long as hes on the field hes very helpful, better than helpful.

hes allstar material but for 14M shouldnt he be allstar material?

The problem with this guy has never really been his production, its been his inability to stay on the field.

This year hes been steady on his feet but every time he runs something down you can hear the suction of an entire region holding their breath....anticipating a calamity and the strained back, neck,quad or hammy that follows...135 games is all Im asking for, if he plays that many games he will put up great #s,score a ton of runs and work pitchers deep into counts..

He is a legit #2 hitter with his big OBP#s

[YAZMAN]

He is a legit #2 hitter with his big OBP#s

 

And with the number of pitches he sees as well. I like him in the #2 hole although I think it's a tad bit of a waste power wise.

[BoSox21]

hes allstar material but for 14M shouldnt he be allstar material?

 

His production in Boston has just about been right in line with what he's done over his career. Is it Drew's fault that his salary is what it is or is it the FO's fault? They paid all-star money for a guy who isn't an all-star.

[Dipre]

JD Drew is God.

 

Carry on.

[Dojji]

all time Red Sox saves leader

[BSN07]

I love Papelbon. But he isn't pitching that good this year. I mentioned this earlier but I'm starting to feel more confident about it. I think there is a good chance Papelbon gets dealt this off season. And Bard assumes the Closers role.

 

 

Papelbon is an elite closer. But is getting very expensive. And the way he has pitched this year doesn't help either. He has 25 saves, but it seems he fills up the bases and then most times finds some way to get out of it. Last night was one of the nights he couldn't recover.

 

I say sell high on him. You could get a very good player or package for Papelbon right now. I bet there would be a few teams the Sox could get to overpay. Just a thought.

[BoSox21]

and they say Boston fans arent reactionary...

[BSN07]

and they say Boston fans arent reactionary...

 

Well to be fair. I mentioned him as a future trade candidate early this off season.

 

He wants huge money and won't sign an extension. His numbers have gone down this year. Why no try and trade him before he jumps ship and cashes in his lotto ticket in NY?

[SoxSport]

I heard some talk he isn't throwing his splitter. That could make a difference. Last night, the fielder's indifference hurt. That should not be in a save situation. It shows too much hubris. And then the defensive breakdown at SS. Where was Lowrie?-- in the late innings? And why wasn't LaRoche, a hot hitter, playing against the RHP? That's why they traded for him! Tito's response was he wanted to see Lowell play 3 straight games. Wonder what the FO thought about that. I've never thought game managing was Tito's strong suit--for all his other qualities.

 

Pap may be showing some wear and tear--natural for any top closer. He needs some help--from Bard. If you are going to throw 4 relievers out there every game for 1 inning each, you need at least 12 pitchers. Maybe 13.

[Mr Crunchy]

Nick Green says hello, what a f***ing abortion last night, just plain bad baseball from the pitcher to the shortstop, does paplebon feel compelled to give us all s*** pains every time he gets the ball?

This aint nessesary and Nick Green really needs to find some other place to f*** up other than in the 9th inning with men on base.

[Mr Crunchy]

Saito closed well in LA for a couple of years and Bard has been great but this is paplebons team and last night was a blown chance and a classic f***bag of an inning.