Smoltz update

[schillingouttheks]

The problem with moving Penny to the bullpen is that you have to demote either Bard or Masterson.

 

If I had my way, I would DL the s*** out of Dice K and leave Penny. Especially after today, again.

[BoSox21]

seems like every week, people wanna jettison a different person to make room for Smoltz. I'd still like to see Wakefield rested until a spot opens up

[Mr Crunchy]

With Becks and Lester coming into form and the putrid effort of Matsusaka Im not adverse to seeing them send Dice to Pawtucket for an extended visit and maybe he can find some of the courage thats been lost, the guy is an instant sedative every time he takes the mound.

Hes an interesting candidate to be sent packing, i believe his real salary is 9-10M per and in the right place he could be a marketing bonanza for a team looking for a revenue boost.

I dont hate him I just think he was tremendously overrated and patient teams crucify him.

[jacksonianmarch]

he is an enigma IMO. He is capable of throwing low to mid 90s with some sick offspeed offerings. His location that was so impeccable in Japan, has been awful here. He refuses to give in, which lends to high walk totals, and when he does, he throws a cookie rather than a good hard fastball. I think he needs to be broken down and rebuilt. His mentality just doesnt fly here. In Japan, they didnt keep pitch counts as religiously as they do here and he only pitched once a week. So he could throw 150 pitches per game and get through 7 or 8 innings. Here, he gets through 5 on 100 pitches and he kills the pen. Then he gets dead arm.

[Mr Crunchy]

Whats sick is the fact that he went 18-3 with a sub 3 era last year which makes it even a bigger enigma cause i dont know how he did it in this league.Its a nice spot to be in if your Epstein but Im not sure that Theo has the stones to trade a guy that we spent 50M on just to negotiate...

I just dont know, I do know John Smoltz is one of the best money guys ever and along with Beckett makes our post season staff very scary if hes still got his velocity .

What would a losing team offer for a pitcher who went 18-3 last year,is still young but is struggling?

[BoSox21]

he has the stones to trade Nomar and Manny but not Dice-K? ok....

[a700hitter]

he has the stones to trade Nomar and Manny but not Dice-K? ok....

Financially that move would be difficult to explain. $52 million is out the window for the signing rights plus they'd probably have to eat a portion of his salary. They've already invested $73 million in him between the signing fee and three years of salary. That's a steep price for what he has produced on the field. I think they are doing everything in their power to help Dice K be successful, so they are not totally embarrassed.

[BoSox21]

if you're gonna look at it strictly from a financial standpoint, you have to take into account the revenue generated by the signing in the first place. obviously I don't have access to the books but I'm sure the Red Sox brand has gotten pretty damn popular in the Far East since the signing.

[Mr Crunchy]

When this crew took over their 1st act of business was waiving Manny so they werent in love with him from the begining.Neither Nomar or Manny were Epstein guys and both were so f***ing sullen and cancerous at the end that he essentially had no choice but to move them, this is different. This is Theos prize acquisition and what was supposed to be the best pitcher on the market in the 06 offseason.

The cost is around 20m per when you factor in salary and negotiations costs.

So I ask again, will he expose himself for ridicule by trading Matsusaka and is there a home for him on a losing team or is he destined to play out his next 2.5 years in Boston...

After paying 19m for 1 year of Renteria, the Matt Clement disastorous experiment,36M to Julio Lugo and 75M for JD Drew will Theo pay what will amount to be 28M for 2.5 yrs of Dice K and thats if we dont eat any of his current salary.I think theyve pimped out every dime possible on this thing in Boston and the Dice K jerseys arent exactly flying off the shelf these days. A move to say Seattle or even out to SanFran or LA would help both the pitcher,the marketing oppurtunities and possibly even the RedSox if they can get a lefthanded bat out of the deal...Would we trade him straight up for Nick Johnson and would DC agree to the deal?

[Spudboy]

I'm not sure there is a market for Dice-K. But from a marketing perspective, Seattle would seem the best fit with it's large Asian population and a Big Japanese star. San Fransisco is similar.

[Mr Crunchy]

The move would be a quick fiscal boost for either team,SanFran has a 40% asian population,Seattle has a ton of asians as well and i believe its owned by the Nintendo crew.Both teams suck and lack a face on their franchises, of course unless Dice improves it wont help their long term goals.

[BoSox21]

I'm not sure there is a market for Dice-K. But from a marketing perspective' date=' Seattle would seem the best fit with it's large Asian population and a Big Japanese star. San Fransisco is similar.[/quote']

 

there's definitely a market for a pitcher who is younger than 30, cheaper than $10 mil who won 18 games with a sub-3 ERA in the AL East last season regardless of what he's done this year

[Mr Crunchy]

he could be a bargain for a west coast team looking to improve its image.

[a700hitter]

if you're gonna look at it strictly from a financial standpoint' date=' you have to take into account the revenue generated by the signing in the first place. obviously I don't have access to the books but I'm sure the Red Sox brand has gotten pretty damn popular in the Far East since the signing.[/quote']I doubt that they have made much of a dent in the $104 million.

[ORS]

Why do they need to dent the $104? The first half of that was the acquisition cost. The second half is his salary. He's been more than worth his salary over 2.33 years, so whatever they are getting out of this relationship in the Japanese market should be judged against the $51M is cost to talk to him.

[a700hitter]

Why do they need to dent the $104? The first half of that was the acquisition cost. The second half is his salary. He's been more than worth his salary over 2.33 years' date=' so whatever they are getting out of this relationship in the Japanese market should be judged against the $51M is cost to talk to him.[/quote']Okay, they may haven't made a dent in the $51 million.

[ORS]

Would you consider 20% a dent? It's no stretch to think creative businessmen couldn't come up with $5M in revenues per year over such an association. Two years of that is 20%.

[Sox Fan on Cape]

he has the stones to trade Nomar and Manny but not Dice-K? ok....

 

You do realize that Dice-K has a no trade clause ?

[a700hitter]

Would you consider 20% a dent? It's no stretch to think creative businessmen couldn't come up with $5M in revenues per year over such an association. Two years of that is 20%.

They haven't announced any venture that would generate that kind of cash flow. I'd be surprised if they were generating a significant cash flow and not crowing about it.

[Dojji]

Daisuke is sucking right now but there were a lot of positive signs. He missed a lot of bats, he (hallelujah!) threw strikes, and he got his fastball up into the mid 90's. It looked more like a good pitcher's bad day than a bad pitcher's average day, if you know what I mean by that.

 

Even with him getting tattooed I thought this looked more like the Daisuke Matsuzaka we first acquired than the guy we've seen at any time after July of '07. The results were bad but his "stuff" is much improved, the velocity was up and he was painting the corners better. I expect better things from Daisuke very soon.

[BoSox21]

You do realize that Dice-K has a no trade clause ?

 

That's not really the point I was making, I would be shocked if they were shopping Dice-K anyway. But I don't think Theo not having the guts to trade him has anything to do with it. Besides, Dice-K's season has been f***ed up from ST on and I think it's a bit soon to write him off.

[Mr Crunchy]

I didnt know that, a rare and welcome post from talk sox's nicest member and informative at that.

That changes the price of poker but I think that Dice K could be swayed if hes headed to a west coast team with a large asian market, that said he may have competetive fire that would prevent him from leaving the ruff and tumble east coast where every game is dissected like a bullfrog in 10th grade biology.The sox fans havent turned on him but that may change if he continues to struggle.

I am sure the sox got a ton of money back on marketing, more than enuff to satisfy the marketing end of the deal but we're looking for results on the field at this point.

[Rdsxmbnt]

I don't get why we are having this conversation after 27 innings...

 

Granted they haven't been good but at least he's striking out over a batter an inning. Quite frankly we invested a ton in Dice and considering we are a) only paying him ~8-9mil a year for him and he's coming off an 18-3 2.90 season I think we should be giving a bit more slack for now.

[BoSox21]

yea, and both Beckett and Lester started off like ass and neither of them were coming off the WBC or a DL stint

[Mr Crunchy]

Someone needs to be moved, who will it be?

The investment in Dice K not withstanding who gets you more?Penny or Dice?

Penny is pitching better and our investment with him can be considered somewhat of a success already.

Are you going to move the youngsters like Bard Bucholz Bowden or Masterson or do we intend to leave John Smoltz in Rhode Island for the year...Somethings gotta break and I was merely exploring every and all options.

[jacksonianmarch]

The sox are rumored to be trying to trade Penny ASAP.

[BSN07]

The sox are rumored to be trying to trade Penny ASAP.

 

I read that too.

 

 

I've been advocating a Dice-K trade since the offseason when his value was at it's highest. Of course there are many bumps in that road. The 52M investment. A good portion might have been recouped already. Add in the signing of Tazawa and the Sox might be able to get a way with it.

 

Dice-K is a solid pitcher. But he doesn't fit the philosophy in Boston. And has shown an unwillingness to change. He had a lot of success last season, but even during the season we all where worried about his pitch counts and his incapability to get late into games.

 

Then there is the NTC. I will admit, I didn't know about it. This is a big monkey wrench. If you go to Dice-K and ask to trade him you risk damaging him mentally in some way or another.

 

I think Dice-K could be a top of the rotation in the NL. It's way more his style. i also think the Sox could get back some really good value for him. Not sure what, but a legit ML bat, or a top C talent+.

 

Not sure I see him getting dealt at this point, but the Sox should listen at the very least.

[BoSox21]

It's pretty clear they're replacing Penny with Smoltz at this point with Penny going to the highest bidder and if Smoltz needs to skip a start or Wakefield needs his 3-4 weeks off, Buchholz will slide right in

[example1]

I'm sure I'm in the minority here, but I see no reason and have no desire to trade Dice-K.

 

yes, at times he is agonizing to watch. So is Wakefield. At the same time, for whatever reason, he is extremely difficult to hit. His stuff is a lot better than it looks and, believe it or not, his "wildness" has actually been an asset to him overall. When he loses control he walks too many guys, but he keeps hitters on their toes and gets a lot more strikeouts than one would expect given his inability to hit spots.

[Paradisecity]

Hitters are averaging over 7 hits per start against Dice-K.

 

What games are you watching?