No question. Molina is better than Posada.

[Gom]

Flaherty said it Thursday on YES.

 

"Molina gets you an extra strike every at-bat".

 

"At some point, you have to realize that what Molina gives you behind the plate is at least a run a game compared to Jorge."

 

This is what I've been saying. Do you have any idea how huge that is? For most of you, of course not, you'd have to actually understand the game to get it.

 

Through April 26, look at these stats:

 

Posada ERA: 7.97

Molina ERA: 3.09

 

I know what you're thinking...."He caught Wang...blah blah blah". Fine. Completely eliminate Wang. All 6 of his innings and 25 runs. Fine. Huge difference right? Wrong.

 

Posada ERA: 6.36

Molina ERA: 3.09

 

Posada has caught the 16-11, 22-4, and 15-5 losses. This doesn't count last night's numbers either...as the Yankees won 10-9. Small sample size? Sure. However, this gap is way too big to be assumed as coincidence. So...does Posada add 3 runs per game? He did last night, he added 4 runs, and the Yankees won 10-9. Keith Woolner completely missed, and most of you guys are sheep, and believe anything anyone tells you. Japanese manager use this CERA [catcher ERA]. American managers [as far as I know, don't]. Does that mean we're smart and they're dumb, or the other way around?

 

Posada had a great game at the plate, but another terrible game behind the plate [as per my bro, I was at the stadium, you can't judge balls/strikes as well]. You guys are coming to the stadium on Monday. Watch Posada behind the plate, and how many potential strikes he loses because as soon as he catches it, not only does he not frame it, he drops his glove. Pitches that are strikes are called balls.

 

I know most of you guys like laughing at people who watch the games and have played the game, and that clueless people like to track pitch f/x and then cry like bitches when the pitches they think should be strikes aren't called that way...but if you watch the game, you'll figure out why. The Red Sox are coming to the Stadium this week. For one inning, if it's a blowout either way, try watching Posada objectively. Then compare him to Varitek. Then, finally, you'll see what I'm talking about. If you remember, then watch Molina.

 

I'll even give you a quick primer, since I see more Yankee games than you do.

 

Forget pitch selection. We don't know what pitches are working, etc.

 

Molina sets up behind the plate before the pitcher goes into his windup, and puts up the glove for a target. He gets in position as the pitcher sets. Posada rocks back and forth, and actually puts up the glove while the pitcher is in the windup. He rarely puts up a target for the pitcher to shoot for. The pitcher is just guessing.

 

Watch how Molina frames the pitches. He pulls borderline pitches back into the strikezone, and HOLDS it there, allowing him to get a borderline strike call from the umpire. Posada does the exact opposite. He drops his glove after he catches the pitch, and pitches that are strikes are called balls. Sometimes he'll even stand up BEFORE the umpire makes the call.

 

I'm not the only one who thinks so either.

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/165764-analyzing-yankee-catchers-jorge-posada-v-jose-molina

 

Since it's now discussed in the media, does that make it more or less correct than when I first preached it?

 

Going back to the blatantly obvious point. Let's take a look at Burnett. He has had 3 games caught by Molina, and 2 by Posada. Here are the results from the games:

 

Apr 30 LAA 7.0IP 8H 4ER 1BB 5K

Apr 25 @BOS 5.0IP 8H 8ER 3BB 3K

Apr 19 CLE 6.1IP 3H 3ER 7BB 2K

Apr 14 @TB 8.0 3H 2ER 1BB 9K

Apr 9 @BAL 5.1IP 7H 2R 1BB 6K

 

Gues which three were caught by Molina and which two by Posada? It's only a matter of time before someone comes up with a reliable statistic that will validate what I already know.

 

Even the most ardent stat-head realizes that some statistics have more merit than others. They are formulas. As a scientist, you formulate a hypothesis and then you create an experiment to test the hypothesis. Just because the results do not validate your hypothesis does not mean that the hypothesis was wrong, the test itself could be flawed.

 

Remember when Moneyball was the all the rage? How OBP was all that mattered, and defense was inconsequential? That was basically one of the tenements in the book. Just a few short years later, Bobby Abrea and Adam Dunn got much, much lower salaries than expected, even in this poor economy, because of their DEFENSIVE rankings.

 

Just because it's written doesn't mean it's true. Maybe watching a game once in a while has it's merits? Nah...that would screw up your spreadsheets.

 

Try thinking for yourselves once in a while.

[jacksonianmarch]

nice try Gom. Small sample size for one. And for two, no matter how "bad" Posada is behind the plate, he does not make up for the significant offensive dropoff. Sorry Gom. If they were close offensively, then I would be on board. But when you talk about 300-400 points of OPS, then it is not worth it. If you really want to try and make a case, you'd go back through ERA in games Posada caught since Molina arrived and then of course get the ERA in game Molina caught. Then, you'd have to break it down further based upon pitcher to see how much of a difference, if any, there was between them on a pitcher by pitcher basis. If certain pitchers have a massive dropoff going to Posada, then you have a case for Molina being a personal catcher. Otherwise, I think you'll find it hard to find a significant difference over a bigger timeframe.

[riverside sluggers]

3 years/$39 remaining. Bench him, awesome

[Cocos Disciples]

For most of you, of course not, you'd have to actually understand the game to get it.

 

Just because it's written doesn't mean it's true. Maybe watching a game once in a while has it's merits? Nah...that would screw up your spreadsheets.

 

Try thinking for yourselves once in a while.

 

Holy s*** you're such a bitch.

[diony]

Posada is one of the best offensive catchers in the majors. He has a +130 OPS now, and you prefer Molina based on catcher's ERA? How exactly is Molina better than him? There's a reason why he's a backup catcher.

[Dipre]

Posada is one of the best offensive catchers in the majors. He has a +130 OPS now' date=' and you prefer Molina based on catcher's ERA? How exactly is Molina better than him? There's a reason why he's a backup catcher.[/quote']

 

Molina frames pitches better, and he doesn't get up before the umpire makes the call.

 

And he wonders why we all think he's a f***ing idiot.

[Gom]

nice try Gom. Small sample size for one. And for two' date=' no matter how "bad" Posada is behind the plate, he does not make up for the significant offensive dropoff. Sorry Gom. If they were close offensively, then I would be on board. But when you talk about 300-400 points of OPS, then it is not worth it. If you really want to try and make a case, you'd go back through ERA in games Posada caught since Molina arrived and then of course get the ERA in game Molina caught. Then, you'd have to break it down further based upon pitcher to see how much of a difference, if any, there was between them on a pitcher by pitcher basis. If certain pitchers have a massive dropoff going to Posada, then you have a case for Molina being a personal catcher. Otherwise, I think you'll find it hard to find a significant difference over a bigger timeframe.[/quote']

I don't expect you to understand. Small sample size? Yes. However, it's 1/6th of the season. What you're saying is that April games don't count?

 

Molina saves the Yankees a run a game. The numbers show THREE runs per game. Posada doesn't give you a run a game at the plate. End of story.

 

Molina frames pitches better, and he doesn't get up before the umpire makes the call.

 

And he wonders why we all think he's a f***ing idiot.

Coming from you, that's a compliment. If you actually think that I thought you had anything to add intelligently, then you're even dumber than I thought, and that would be tough.

 

For the rest of you, just watch him, and then form your own opinions.

[CrespoBlows]

At least one run a game better? The burden of proof isn't very high for you, is it?

[Gom]

At least one run a game better? The burden of proof isn't very high for you' date=' is it?[/quote']

 

At least Crespo. When you watch as many Yankee games as I have, and I watch the players the way I do.

 

When I'm at the stadium, I am a fan who cheers and goes crazy because I can't see the little things. When I watch on TV, I look at their stance, the way they pitch, the way the catcher sets up. It's so blatantly obvious to me, but I don't expect a lot of you to believe me because you don't watch as many Yankee games as I do.

 

All I ask is that you try to watch the Yankees catchers objectively when the Red Sox come to town. Then tell me what you think.

[CrespoBlows]

No.

 

Think about that. 162 runs. At least. Do you know how much value that would give Molina? He'd be the most valuable Yankee on the staff. Oh, but that's why similar catchers like him are often labeled "backup catchers."

 

Besides, why the f*** should I value your judgement over concrete evidence from people who watch A LOT more baseball then you do?

[CrespoBlows]

Besides, if Molina is so good defensively, why was his CERA a 12.27 with the Yankees in 2007? The sample size was 29 games.

[ORS]

In a year in which more than one catcher caught more than 30 games, and one of them was Molina, last year was the first time he lead his team in OPS against since 2004.

 

The difference in league hitting after the first pitch is greater than .200 OPS between that pitch being called a ball or strike. After subsequent counts, the difference increases.

 

If "stealing" strikes was a true talent, and Molina was inarguably the best (Gom's words), he would lead his team every year, without exception. Last year was the first time in 5 years.

 

Gom will ignore this.

 

Carry on.

[Gom]

No.

 

Think about that. 162 runs. At least. Do you know how much value that would give Molina? He'd be the most valuable Yankee on the staff. Oh, but that's why similar catchers like him are often labeled "backup catchers."

 

Is Molina that much better than any catcher in baseball? No.

 

Posada is the problem.

 

Imagine having both Jeter and Everett on your team. One costs runs. The other saves runs. The aggregate total is much larger than it would be with say, an average shortstop and Everett.

Besides, why the f*** should I value your judgement over concrete evidence from people who watch A LOT more baseball then you do?

What concrete evidence? Woolner said that game-calling isn't significant, and I agree. However, I wasn't arguing game calling. I was talking framing pitches. Bill James said that while it is possible that catchers may have a significant effect on a pitching staff, there is too much yearly variation in CERA for it to be a reliable indicator of ability. Japanese managers use it as one of the prime metrics in determining a catcher's value.

 

So we have one saying no, one saying I don't know, and the 2nd best baseball league in the world that uses it a lot.

 

Besides' date=' if Molina is so good defensively, why was his CERA a 12.27 with the Yankees in 2007? The sample size was 29 games.[/quote']

 

I can't really answer that. Why did Posada hit .338 that year, I believe? Molina came over in 2007, he was learning the pitchers, I guess.

In a year in which more than one catcher caught more than 30 games, and one of them was Molina, last year was the first time he lead his team in OPS against since 2004.

 

The difference in league hitting after the first pitch is greater than .200 OPS between that pitch being called a ball or strike. After subsequent counts, the difference increases.

 

If "stealing" strikes was a true talent, and Molina was inarguably the best (Gom's words), he would lead his team every year, without exception. Last year was the first time in 5 years.

 

Gom will ignore this.

 

Carry on.

I don't know who the Angels had as their catcher. I'm comparing Molina to Posada. Molina was traded to the Yankees in late 2007. Last year, he led the Yankees in OPS against. He's doing it again this year. So, assuming Crespo's numbers are correct, Molina was bad in 2007, with a new team and new pitchers for two months, and then been solid ever since.

 

Wow ORS. You have dropped to the level of DipreG. I like you, and I realize that these are fighting words, but they had to be said.

 

Last year, the Yankee pitching staff over-acheived. Everyone here would agree with this, I believe. Mussina won 20 games at the age of 39 I believe with Molina becoming his personal catcher. The Yankee ERA with Posada behind the plate, and discounting Wang's starts, is more than double what it is with Molina behind the plate. You guys choose to chalk it up to coincidence, or because someone else isn't telling you what to think.

 

Keep in mind...I haven't included pitch-calling, because I believe that in this case, Woolner is correct in stating that "catcher game-calling isn't a statistically significant skill". We haven't even entered into the discussion Molina's arm either, which is probably the best in the majors.

 

All I'm asking you to do is to watch the defensive game of the two Yankee catchers when the Red Sox come to the stadium on 5/4 and 5/5, and judge for yourself, if you have the capability to do so.

[ORS]

The 20 wins is a meaningless number. Stop bringing it up. He pitched better in 2001 by the measures of ERA, K/9, and WHIP yet only won 17 games. There are 3 major factors a pitcher can't really control that impact who wins or loses a game. One is BABIP/defense, two is what his offense does, and the last is how the bullpen performs in his game. It's childish to keep supporting your lame argument with such a worthless stat.

[Gom]

The 20 wins is a meaningless number. Stop bringing it up. He pitched better in 2001 by the measures of ERA' date=' K/9, and WHIP yet only won 17 games. There are 3 major factors a pitcher can't really control that impact who wins or loses a game. One is BABIP/defense, two is what his offense does, and the last is how the bullpen performs in his game. It's childish to keep supporting your lame argument with such a worthless stat.[/quote']

Fine. Throw out that stat completely. No problem. Doesn't change my argument or my point in any way, shape, or form.

 

If Molina catches the same number of games as last year, Yankees win 100 games. If Posada catches, especially in the playoffs, the Yankees are out in the first round.

[jacksonianmarch]

the yankees could win 100 games and be out in the first round. what then?

[Gom]

Molina's defense will matter even more in the playoffs, as the games are usually against better pitchers and better hitters and there is less margin for error.

[yankees228]

I'm not going to re-state all my arguments from the other thread, because this is just getting redundant.

 

However, I'll ask you one question. Jorge Posada has been the primary catcher since 1998. If the catcher has such an large effect on wins and losses (and Posada has such a negative impact), then why have the Yankees been so successful?

[CrespoBlows]

Molina's real value behind the plate is the absurd number of runners he throws out, but it still wouldn't be as big as one run per game. Even how good he is at calling games.

 

Good pitchers make catchers look good. Bad pitchers make them look bad.

[ORS]

Surprised nobody else brought this up yet, but isn't it to be expected for a career backup catcher to overinflate the value of a current career backup catcher? I wonder what Alex Cora thinks of the value of utility players.

[Gom]

Surprised nobody else brought this up yet' date=' but isn't it to be expected for a career backup catcher to overinflate the value of a current career backup catcher? I wonder what Alex Cora thinks of the value of utility players.[/quote']

 

Nice strawman.

 

Flaherty is a catcher, and probably sees this better than Michael Kay, whose baseball experience is limited to tee ball. By your own admission, if Molina becomes the starter, then he'd back Posada? Wow...senior moment there buddy?

[Gom]

Molina's real value behind the plate is the absurd number of runners he throws out, but it still wouldn't be as big as one run per game. Even how good he is at calling games.

 

Good pitchers make catchers look good. Bad pitchers make them look bad.

You just don't understand the game as well as I thought. Throwing out runners is the third most important thing a catcher does. Calling a game/framing pitches are 1/2. Runners is a distant 3rd. Distant.

[yankees228]

No explanation for the Yankees performance from 1998 and on, Gom?

[CrespoBlows]

You just don't understand the game as well as I thought. Throwing out runners is the third most important thing a catcher does. Calling a game/framing pitches are 1/2. Runners is a distant 3rd. Distant.

 

Throwing runners out actually remove actual threats from the basepaths kills run scoring chances.

 

Umpires get strike calls correctly called 95% of the time, more hyperinflation of something miniscule in value.

 

Again, getting hitters out is mostly dependent on the pitcher.

[Dipre]

Well, isn't it awesome that Sabathia got shelled by the legendary angels offense with Jose Molina behind the plate?

 

I'm surprised, since he frames piches better and doesn't get up before the pitch is called behind the plate.

 

As usual, the actual game proves to us just how useless any point brought up by Gom really is.

[CrespoBlows]

Nice strawman.

 

Stop. You just don't get it.

 

 

I can't really answer that. Why did Posada hit .338 that year, I believe? Molina came over in 2007, he was learning the pitchers, I guess.

 

 

If you really believe that's the answer, then you place an overexaggerated number on the value of game calling. Really a totally absurd figure.

[ORS]

Nice strawman.

Apparently, despite this having been explained to you ad nauseum, you still don't get the term. Quick, find where I assigned a tought to you that wasn't what you said in that particular post. You can't, because it isn't there. Therefore, not a strawman. Do this analysis, where you look to see if someone has misrepresented what you said, each time you want to use the term "strawman".

 

Flaherty is a catcher, and probably sees this better than Michael Kay, whose baseball experience is limited to tee ball. By your own admission, if Molina becomes the starter, then he'd back Posada? Wow...senior moment there buddy?

Backup catchers are all pretty much the same. Good on the defensive side, usually better behind the plate than the starter, and pretty weak with the bat. It's clear that I'm talking about the similarity between Flaherty and Molina in this regard. You are taking the terms literally, when common sense would see this is what I'm doing (as I've mentioned before, you lack this trait, so having to explain this is no surprise). Flaherty doesn't identify with the type of player Posada is, so no, if he were arbitrarily made the backup against convention, Flaherty wouldn't be giving him hyperbolic praise.

 

You are like the little engine that couldn't. I'll give you some credit trying to draw a comparable situation there, but in typical fashion, common sense elluded you, and you were wrapped in the cold embrace of failure.

[CrespoBlows]

http://www.gossipboulevard.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/kanye_west_southpark.jpg

[ORS]

If you really believe that's the answer' date=' then you place an overexaggerated number on the value of game calling. Really a totally absurd figure.[/quote']

Hell, it's not even game calling that he's praising him for. That is a secondary reason for praise. His main point is about receiving pitches so well that he's good for an extra strike per at-bat. This supposed skill has dick to do with knowing the pitchers.

[Gom]

For all you genuises [sic] out there....

 

Explain why the team pitchers do better with Molina than Posada. I'm waiting.

 

Look, game-calling is an art, and Molina is better at it, but it's harder to quantify. I believe that if a pitcher makes his pitches, he gets the batter out.

 

However, every pitcher lives on the corners. There isn't a pitcher in baseball who throws the ball down the middle the majority of the time and is successful.

 

It's that one or two inches off the plate and high and low that makes all the difference in the game. You get that "Oh, Mariano always gets that call" or "the Maddux strike zone". The ability of a catcher to influence a pitcher on the periphery of the plate is critical.

 

Sorry ORS, I believe Flaherty more than I would ever believe anything you'd say. Especially when it's so blatantly obvious. As for the strawman comment, I was comparing Molina to Posada. Not anyone else. You said the first time since 2002 that the backup had a better CERA was 2007. I don't care about previous seasons, and since Molina came to the Yankees in late 2006, well...there you go.

 

I know you hate admitting you're wrong, which is funny, because you're wrong often. It's an ego defect. I expect more from you, but you're talking like Mr. Swine Flu.

 

All I'm telling you is to pay attention to Posada and Molina behind the plate when the Sox come to town. Then you'll see what I'm talking about.

 

On a side note, what irks me here sometimes is that no one comes up with an idea here. If it isn't supported by any of your available data, you're quick to dismiss it. Defensive metrics are what...two or three years old in mainstream baseball circles?

 

Three years ago, Dunn and Abreu would have been signed to multi-year, expensive contracts. Advances in defensive statistics have increased our knowledge of the game. However, NOTHING on the field changed. The game didn't change, our knowledge did. People scoffed at defense...just look at Moneyball. Now, where are those same people? They just follow what they're told.

 

From 1977 to 1983, Omar Moreno had at least 400 ABs, and led the league twice in plate appearances. Teams believed in speed, and didn't realize the importance of OBP and OPS. His highest OBP was .339. In fact, in 1980, he led the league in plate appearances.

 

His line: .249BA .306OBP .325SLG .631OPS 96SB 33CS

 

Do you think he would get a shot today? In 1980, he had 676 at bats!

 

What I'm trying to say is that we may have not created a metric or formula to prove or disprove what I'm saying. It exists on the field. Going back to Molina/Posada, in Burnett's last game, Burnett threw a beauty of a pitch that may have been called a strike with any other catcher than Posada, who caught the ball and immediately dropped the glove. The count was 2-2. The next pitch, the batter walked. Instead of an out and no one on base, it was a runner on first. Pitchers consistenly get ahead in the count more with Molina, he calls a better game, he frames pitches better, and he's got a better arm. Even today, Sabathia ran out of gas but gave up 4 runs in the seventh inning. If Girardi had taken him out after 100 pitches, he would have pitched a shut out.

 

Now...Posada may go out and catch a no-hitter, and the Lord Almighty can't help CMW. However, over time, this trend we saw last year and are seeing this year can't be dismissed.

 

All I'm asking any of you is to think outside the box, and watch Posada and Molina, and tell me if you see what I see.