2009 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship Discussion

[TheKilo]

As promised.

 

 

TheKilo's Projected Field as of 3/8: - Bubble teams in Parentheses, Auto bids in Italics

 

ACC: Duke, Clemson, UNC, Florida State, Wake Forest, Boston College (Maryland, Virginia Tech)

 

Big East: UConn, Pitt, Louisville, Villanova, West Virginia, Syracuse, Marquette (Providence)

 

Big Ten: Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois (Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin)

 

Big 12: Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Texas (Oklahoma State, Texas A&M)

 

Pac-10: Washington, UCLA, Arizona State (Arizona, California)

 

SEC: LSU, South Carolina, Florida, Tennessee

 

A10: Dayton, Xavier

 

Mountain West: Utah, BYU

 

Other Conferences:

Cornell - Ivy

UNI - MVC

East Tennessee St. - Atlantic Sun

Morehead State - OVC

Radford - Big South

Memphis

Butler

Gonzaga

 

Bubble teams from Mid-Majors:

Siena

Utah State

Creighton

Rhode Island

Saint Mary's

UNLV

Davidson

[TheKilo]

I have 39 teams set.

 

These are tournaments still to be decided (that will only get one team):

America East

Big Sky

Big West

Colonial

Conference USA (assuming Memphis wins)

Horizon (assuming Butler wins)

Metro Altantic (assuming Siena wins)

Mid-American

Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Northeast

Patriot

Southern

Southland

Southwestern Athletic Conference

Summit

Sun Belt

Western Athletic

West Coast Conference (assuming Gonzaga wins)

[TheKilo]

39 "locks" plus 18 "one-team auto bids" = 57 selections.

 

Out of the following bubble teams, I can select 8. Selections are bolded:

 

Siena

Utah State

Creighton

Rhode Island

Saint Mary's

UNLV

Davidson

Maryland

Virginia Tech

Providence

Michigan

Minnesota

Penn State

Wisconsin

Ohio State

Oklahoma State

Texas A&M

Arizona

California

[msubulldogs21]

No Auburn? I know the SEC is not that good, but they've quietly had a good season. They deserve a bid, IMO, and if they can win just one game in the SEC Tournament I think they get it. Jeff Lebo has done a great coaching job with them.

[TheKilo]

RPI 64, SOS 72

 

Best Wins: Tennessee, LSU

Worst Losses: Mercer (?!), Vanderbilt, Mississippi

 

Not enough of a resume to get in IMO

[YanksHater213]

I'd put BC on the bubble. They needed to show something in their last 2 road games vs. two teams worse than them numbers wise. I was talking to SOTK after the Duke win and said they needed to win 3 of the 4 remaining games to "nearly lock" an at-large bid (they won 2 of them, lost both on the road), so as of right now they're a bubble team in my eyes, because of their marginal conference record and weak as hell non-conference schedule. The StL and Harvard losses hurt them a lot, but I don't think they're as big of a deal because they've got wins @ UNC and vs. Duke to even it out. I think they're sitting pretty winning one round in the ACC and they're a lock if they win two.

 

I'm personally hoping St. Mary's finds a way in, I'm a huge fan of Pat Mills, kid can ball.

 

I'm not sure about Arizona. One week they look like a top ten team in the nation, the next they look like Bryant University. I can't get a read on this team, but if you put a gun to my head, I'd say out as of now, maybe win a round or two and they're in.

 

Using your set up, the 7 bubble teams I'd take: Siena, TAMU, OK State, Penn State, Minnesota, Ohio State, and Cal.

[TheKilo]

BC is 100% without a doubt stone cold locked into this tournament.

 

21-10, 9-7 in the ACC, beat Duke, UNC, and Florida State.

 

Even if BC loses to Virginia in the ACC tournament they're in. If they aren't it's a HUGE snub.

 

I don't see how you can take Ohio State or Minnesota before Michigan, Michigan is super close to lock status in my eyes.

 

Arizona is certainly a debatable selection, lots of struggles on the road, but I think they'd sneak in today (of course this changes if there are upsets in the conference tournaments). If they beat ASU Thursday I'd say they are in.

[YanksHater213]

I don't like BC as much as most people this year. They're a squad that can be dangerous to any team they face though. I like to look at SOS, road wins, and big wins most importantly, and I discount bad losses a little more than most people because I feel every team has an off night (hey, Pats fans can still dream, right??)

 

BC went 1-1 in non-conference road games, and 1-1 @ neutral sites, they're 5-5 overall on the road. I don't like that they had 2 close games with GT (they're pretty bad this year). They really only have 2 wins which really wow me at this point (Duke and @UNC) and they also have a good one vs. FSU (luckily didn't have to travel there). I feel their non-conference mediocrity is too much to overlook right now with BC. Like I said, pretty much win and they're in, but I feel their status is in doubt until then, but I won't be surprised if they make it in regardless, it just depends on your POV of it.

 

As for Michigan, they're definitely in over Minnesota, I accidentally overlooked them on that list you had of bubble teams. IIRC they just beat Minnesota twice recently. My beef with them is that they didn't back up their strong start when conference play started and they don't look like the same team character and energy wise that was playing earlier this season.

 

But I also think if you take Michigan you have to take Ohio State. The resume's of both teams are pretty comparable in my eyes at this point without delving too deeply into it, and OSU took both games with Michigan this year.

[msubulldogs21]

RPI 64, SOS 72

 

Best Wins: Tennessee, LSU

Worst Losses: Mercer (?!), Vanderbilt, Mississippi

 

Not enough of a resume to get in IMO

 

Yeah, it's all opinion, but if Auburn can win a game in the SEC Tourney (they got the West 2 seed which results in a 1st round bye) I think they definitely deserve a bid. Their wins over LSU and Tennessee are looking pretty good right about now too. And yeah, I'm an SEC homer, but if we're going to let in teams like Michigan, maybe Ohio State or Minnesota, Auburn should get in as well. They've also played extremely well down the stretch. 8-1 in their last 9 games.

[TheKilo]

I don't like BC as much as most people this year. They're a squad that can be dangerous to any team they face though. I like to look at SOS, road wins, and big wins most importantly, and I discount bad losses a little more than most people because I feel every team has an off night (hey, Pats fans can still dream, right??)

 

BC went 1-1 in non-conference road games, and 1-1 @ neutral sites, they're 5-5 overall on the road. I don't like that they had 2 close games with GT (they're pretty bad this year). They really only have 2 wins which really wow me at this point (Duke and @UNC) and they also have a good one vs. FSU (luckily didn't have to travel there). I feel their non-conference mediocrity is too much to overlook right now with BC. Like I said, pretty much win and they're in, but I feel their status is in doubt until then, but I won't be surprised if they make it in regardless, it just depends on your POV of it.

 

As for Michigan, they're definitely in over Minnesota, I accidentally overlooked them on that list you had of bubble teams. IIRC they just beat Minnesota twice recently. My beef with them is that they didn't back up their strong start when conference play started and they don't look like the same team character and energy wise that was playing earlier this season.

 

But I also think if you take Michigan you have to take Ohio State. The resume's of both teams are pretty comparable in my eyes at this point without delving too deeply into it, and OSU took both games with Michigan this year.

 

 

 

Michigan beat UCLA and Duke though, two marquee wins Ohio State doesn't have.

 

OSU, on second glance, has a pretty good resume. Sweep of Michigan, wins against Butler and Purdue. Maybe I change my thought and put them in over Providence, whose signature win was against Pitt.

[TheKilo]

Yeah' date=' it's all opinion, but if Auburn can win a game in the SEC Tourney (they got the West 2 seed which results in a 1st round bye) I think they definitely deserve a bid. Their wins over LSU and Tennessee are looking pretty good right about now too. And yeah, I'm an SEC homer, but if we're going to let in teams like Michigan, maybe Ohio State or Minnesota, Auburn should get in as well. They've also played extremely well down the stretch. 8-1 in their last 9 games.[/quote']

 

Michigan beat UCLA and Duke. Auburn's best win was LSU (and it is a good one) but I feel LSU is the product of a very, very weak SEC.

 

The SEC will get four teams in. If Auburn makes it to the finals I'll listen, but for now I see no reason to discuss their resume.

[YanksHater213]

Michigan beat UCLA and Duke though, two marquee wins Ohio State doesn't have.

 

OSU, on second glance, has a pretty good resume. Sweep of Michigan, wins against Butler and Purdue. Maybe I change my thought and put them in over Providence, whose signature win was against Pitt.

I don't like Providence's resume at all... blah blah blah the Big East is tough blah blah blah, they really just didn't have it. By my count, they have one (1) big win. Not anywhere near enough to outweigh how poorly they played against top competition in the non-conference (losses to bubble/near bubble teams in St. Mary's, BC, and a Baylor team that looked to be a tourney team til conference play started)

[TheKilo]

I don't like Providence's resume at all... blah blah blah the Big East is tough blah blah blah' date=' they really just didn't have it. By my count, they have one (1) big win. Not anywhere near enough to outweigh how poorly they played against top competition in the non-conference (losses to bubble/near bubble teams in St. Mary's, BC, and a Baylor team that looked to be a tourney team til conference play started)[/quote']

 

Well, there's some validity that the BE is a better conference and they have an identical conference record to tOSU.

 

If they win a game in the BET they could be an interesting case come Selection Sunday.

[msubulldogs21]

Michigan beat UCLA and Duke. Auburn's best win was LSU (and it is a good one) but I feel LSU is the product of a very, very weak SEC.

 

The SEC will get four teams in. If Auburn makes it to the finals I'll listen, but for now I see no reason to discuss their resume.

 

You're right, the SEC will get four teams in. You've got LSU, Tennessee, and South Carolina for sure, then maybe Auburn or Florida. It just so happens that the winner of the Florida/Arkansas game (which certainly should be Florida) plays Auburn in the quarters. The winner of that game, IMO, gets that spot in the NCAAT.

[TheKilo]

I think Florida's history in the NCAA tournament gives them the edge.

[YanksHater213]

Well, there's some validity that the BE is a better conference and they have an identical conference record to tOSU.

 

If they win a game in the BET they could be an interesting case come Selection Sunday.

 

I think they need to beat DePaul/Cincinnati (non-tourney teams) and THEN take out Louisville to make an impact on Selection Sunday. I still don't see their resume being impressive enough and a big win vs. Louisville would make them hard to pass over.

[TheKilo]

I'm with you, took them out for now and put tOSU in.

[TheKilo]

Depaul, who went 0-18 in the Big east this season, beats Cincinnati in the first round of the BET and puts a dent in Providence's chances.

 

They have to beat Louisville now.

[CrespoBlows]

Georgetown is out.

[TheKilo]

How about North Dakota State? First year of eligibility in D1, come back from 10 down at halftime to win on a jumper with 3 seconds left.

 

Best time of the year.

[YanksHater213]

How about North Dakota State? First year of eligibility in D1, come back from 10 down at halftime to win on a jumper with 3 seconds left.

 

Best time of the year.

 

Fact:

 

In 3 years you will be saying this about Bryant University.

[msubulldogs21]

Cleveland State also upset Butler. CSU is actually a pretty dang good team. Wouldn't shock me to see them play somebody really close and maybe upset them in the tournament. Their win just took away a bid for one of the bubble teams.

[CrespoBlows]

Fact:

 

In 3 years you will be saying this about Bryant University.

 

No chance.

[YanksHater213]

No chance.

 

Can't a brotha dream?

[CrespoBlows]

Can't a brotha dream?

 

As long as it does not dislodge you from reality. Then, you become Soxfan.

[TheKilo]

Cleveland State also upset Butler. CSU is actually a pretty dang good team. Wouldn't shock me to see them play somebody really close and maybe upset them in the tournament. Their win just took away a bid for one of the bubble teams.

 

IMO, Providence.

[YanksHater213]

Providence is in a squeaker right now with DePaul up 32-31 at the half... christ they need to blow them out of the water in the second half if they want any chance of making the tourney.

 

f***ING 0-18 IN THE BIG EAST DEPAUL.

[TheKilo]

Depaul up 4 now. lol

[msubulldogs21]

lol @ St Johns

 

Down 38-10 at the half vs Marquette. 10 pts is the lowest total in a half in Big East history.

[msubulldogs21]

Today is when the fun really begins. All the tournaments are underway. And I'm off work today and tomorrow.... ohhh yes.

 

Louisville vs Providence - ESPN

Kansas vs Baylor - ESPN2

Minnesota vs Northwestern - BTN

Kentucky vs Ole Miss - Raycom

 

Those are just a few of the games alredy in progress or about to start.