Sox search for bat

[BSN07]

I dont get everyone's love affair with Ellsbury. His potential is a high OBP speedster. Thats a nice piece to have. But he will never be a big power guy' date=' so it isnt like he's a 5 tool player. We have a guy similar to him in offensive talent. And I wouldnt call him untouchable.[/quote']

 

Damon hit 8 and 6 HR in his first 2 full seasons in the Majors.

 

Give Ellsbury time to develop physically, and he will have the potential to hit 15-20HR a season. just like Damon has been able to do for most of his career.

[jacksonianmarch]

his potential is Damon at his peak, although I do not see any chance of him hitting 15 homers. Ever. And Damon at his peak was a guy I would deal if the right trade came along. Certainly not a guy you label untradeable.

[Teddyballgame10]

Hammels will soon be the face of the Philles, kid is a stud and is going to be around for a while.

 

Howard also strikes out way to much for Theos liking, same with Dunn. I don't think they will make a run at Dunn.

[example1]

his potential is Damon at his peak' date=' although I do not see any chance of him hitting 15 homers. Ever. [b']And Damon at his peak was a guy I would deal if the right trade came along.[/b] Certainly not a guy you label untradeable.

 

Who is labeling him as untradeable? For that matter, who is labeling ANYONE as untradeable, for the right deal?

 

I also see 15 HR in his future. I don't think that's much of a stretch.

[example1]

Also, FWIW, it wasn't until Damon's 5th MLB season that he posted a WARP higher than Ellsbury's 2008, and Ellsbury's 2008 fielding (35 FRAR/18 FRAA) is as good as Damon's best defensive season (2001, w/ Oakland, 35 FRAR/19FRAA).

 

I think he's better defensively, and a better baserunner. If he continues learning the position and progresses at getting on base, he will be as valuable or more valueable than Damon, whose best season was an 8.6 WARP in 2004 with Boston.

 

The 'big deal' about Ellsbury is that he is a 25 year old who is extremely valuable because he plays MLB caliber defense and can get on base at a 'reasonable' (not ideal) rate for a MLB minimum on a team that can win 95+ games. A players maximum (financial) value is when he is getting the lowest salary on a big market team that is winning lots of games. Once he is making a 'fair' salary his value will drop.

[jacksonianmarch]

I see. You are talking about his value as it pertains to his salary. I dont think that way. I think of value as it pertains to his position and his performance.

[example1]

I see. You are talking about his value as it pertains to his salary. I dont think that way. I think of value as it pertains to his position and his performance.

 

We can think about that too. It doesn't lessen the fact that every player should have a cost to a GM, and a big part of that cost is the $$.

 

Ellsbury was 91st in overall WARP1 last year. As I'm sure you know, WARP is meant to measure his overall performance, hitting, fielding and pitching. Where does 91st place him? Among league losers and players who have no potential and who are poorly paid? I don't think so.

 

Players ahead of Ellsbury by .2 WARP or less (6.6-6.4) #76-91 overall:

 

D. Navarro

S. Victorino

N. Mclouth

L. Overbay

A. Ramirez

J. Votto

J. Nathan

I. Suzuki

O.Cabrera

M. Kemp

A. Iwamura

J. Werth

M. Cain

B. Phillips (6.5)

 

Those are the players who had slightly better overall seasons than Ellsbury.

 

J. Ellsbury (6.4)

 

Players who tied or had slightly worse seasons than Ellsbury (the players who are tied are sorted again according to WARP2.

 

J. Damon (6.4)

J. Duchscherer

J. Papelbon

 

H. Pence (6.3)

B. Giles

A. Cook

R. Oswalt

J. Vazquez

B. Lidge

D. Dejesus

A. Ether

R. Cano

A. Galarraga

G. Floyd

P. Fielder

A. Burnett

C. Zambrano

B. Sheets

O. Hudson

C. Young

A. Soriano

M. Tejada

J. Beckett

F. Cordero

J. Drew

 

 

The list of players who didn't win as many games as Ellsbury also includes celebrities, such as,:

 

Vlad Guerrero

Miguel Cabrera

Bobby Abreu

Carlos Lee

Ryan Howard

Maglio Ordonez

Jason Giambi

 

In fact, based on his 2008 WARP, Ellsbury would have been the 4th most valuable Yankee, behind Rivera, A-Rod and Mussina, and 2 full wins ahead of Derek Jeter.

 

According to Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAA) Ellsbury tied for 2nd in all of baseball with Michael Young at 18. In FRAR he is 2nd among outfielders, behind Torii Hunter. His FRAA2 of 23 is better than Damon's best of 21 in 2001, his age 27 season.

 

I understand why people (myself included) really like Ellsbury. He's a very fast young outfielder who gives the Sox a base stealing threat. That's pretty un-Red Sox historically. If he improves his patience and makes better contact he will add more wins overall and could certainly be one of the leaguers more valuable players.

 

At the same time, I don't think he's the savior, and I don't think he's untouchable (who wouldn't have dealt him for someone like Hanley Ramirez??), I think he is lible to be underestimated in terms of his value by people who only look at VORP or who don't believe defensive skill can improve a team's chances of winning.

[ORS]

Keep in mind, Ellsbury played many games in LF and RF, where his range makes him really good relative to the rest of the league at those positions. Fangraphs has UZR now, and in CF, Jacoby was 9 runs better than average according to UZR/150 (he was 29.4 and 21.7 in LF and RF).

 

He's really a CF, so discussions of his fielding prowess, at least in terms of his future value, should focus on his performance there. He's better than most, but he's not quite brilliant compared to his peers. It's certainly not enough to seriously mitigate his main shortcoming from last year, the inability to consistently get on base, which is something I think the future holds for him. He's done it accross the board in the minors, and he's even done it at this level, but only in flashes to date. I think time/experience will add the consistency.

[example1]

Keep in mind, Ellsbury played many games in LF and RF, where his range makes him really good relative to the rest of the league at those positions. Fangraphs has UZR now, and in CF, Jacoby was 9 runs better than average according to UZR/150 (he was 29.4 and 21.7 in LF and RF).

 

He's really a CF, so discussions of his fielding prowess, at least in terms of his future value, should focus on his performance there. He's better than most, but he's not quite brilliant compared to his peers. It's certainly not enough to seriously mitigate his main shortcoming from last year, the inability to consistently get on base, which is something I think the future holds for him. He's done it accross the board in the minors, and he's even done it at this level, but only in flashes to date. I think time/experience will add the consistency.

 

I agree ORS. He was creating wins wherever he played defensively and was WAY above avg in the corners in 08.

[BSN07]

I've read here and there about Detroit possibly considering moving Miggys big $ contract.

 

 

We discussed him last year. Theoretically, with his big contract now, he might cost less in prospects to aquire then last season.

 

Maybe have him at 1B this season, move him to LF next season if Bay leaves. Or leave him at 1B until Lars is ready, then move him to DH.

 

 

Anyone intersted in him?

 

 

Lugo, Bowden, Bard, +1 OF/IF prospect?

[Dojji]

Even with his value reduced by a large overhead contract I think it takes a little more to get Miggy Cabrera. If nothing else Dombrowski stakes his reputation on Miggy being good for the team.

 

I'll tell you a Tiger we could get though that would make a lot of sense for the team -- Carlos Guillen is nearing the end of his deal, costs a lot of money, and may or may not have an actual position on the team (Left field? Really?). He's got declining skills as a defensive infielder but he's got a great bat and would provide some nice switch-hitting insurance behind 3 different tender spots in the rotation as Lowell and Ortiz prove they're healthy and Lowrie adjusts to big league ball.

[BSN07]

Even with his value reduced by a large overhead contract I think it takes a little more to get Miggy Cabrera. If nothing else Dombrowski stakes his reputation on Miggy being good for the team.

 

I'll tell you a Tiger we could get though that would make a lot of sense for the team -- Carlos Guillen is nearing the end of his deal, costs a lot of money, and may or may not have an actual position on the team (Left field? Really?). He's got declining skills as a defensive infielder but he's got a great bat and would provide some nice switch-hitting insurance behind 3 different tender spots in the rotation as Lowell and Ortiz prove they're healthy and Lowrie adjusts to big league ball.

 

Won't matter much if ownership tells him to get the $ off the books. Detroit is one of the teams seriously hit by the financial situation. And 09:$15M, 10:$20M, 11:$20M, 12:$21M, 13:$21M, 14:$22M, 15:$22M would be alot coming off the books.

 

Miggy at 7/141M seems to be a deal compared to Tex's 8/180M. There offensive production is comparable, though Tex is far and away a better fielder and Miggy will cost some prospects.

[Dojji]

You raise some interesting points but I'm still more interested in Guillen. For the same reasons as Cabrera he should be available and he'll cost FAR less in talent and all you need to do to get him on the roster is get Lugo off the roster..

[BSN07]

You raise some interesting points but I'm still more interested in Guillen. For the same reasons as Cabrera he should be available and he'll cost FAR less in talent.

 

Yes guys that are older and lesser in talent, usually cost less LOL

 

Guillen: 09:$10M, 10:$13M, 11:$13M

 

He's cheaper, but production wise, he's not close to Miggy.

[Dojji]

Yes, that's why I think you can pick him up and get some use out of him and the tigers will let him go for little more than salary relief. Especially if doing so makes it easier for the Tigers to retain Cabrera

 

It's the other way for a large-cap team to flex its financial muscle, taking on the bad contracts of low-cap and midcap teams in order to obtain a useful skillset.

[Dipre]

Cabrera could be a fit, IMO he's an even better hitter than Tex, and his defense at 1b or LF is not horrible, in fact, if he could be persuaded to improve his conditioning, he could be the best 1B OR LF in the league, and for his production, that contract is affordable.

[jacksonianmarch]

The Tigers have Miggy locked up for a LONG time.

[diony]

Wow, hilarious. They didn't sign Tex because of the money (and Lars Anderson), now you guys are proposing trading a pack of prospects for Cabrera + eating a 141m/7 contract. Oh right that makes all the sense in the world.

[Dipre]

Wow' date=' hilarious. They didn't sign Tex because of the money (and Lars Anderson), now you guys are proposing trading a pack of prospects for Cabrera + eating a 141m/7 contract. Oh right that makes all the sense in the world.[/quote']

 

Wow. You're so smart.

 

We didn't sign Tex because of the money.

 

So 170 mill is pocket change.

 

The only thing hilarious here is your lack of reading ability.

 

Seriously, think before you type.

[BSN07]

The Tigers have Miggy locked up for a LONG time.

 

We established this already. In fact, it's a main point to the argument. In a time where it's reasonable to think some teams including Detroit(possibly hardest hit city by finanical crisis), might be willing to move a big contract more they would have been.

[BSN07]

Wow' date=' hilarious. They didn't sign Tex because of the money (and Lars Anderson), now you guys are proposing trading a pack of prospects for Cabrera + eating a 141m/7 contract. Oh right that makes all the sense in the world.[/quote']

 

Miggy doesn't have to stay at 1B, he can go to LF or become the DH. Therefore not blockingLars. The money is actually considerably less then Tex. Yes they would have to give up prospects. But it seems they are willing to shop a few. And with Miggys contract what it is now, compared to what it was when Detroit traded for him, it might only take 2 top prospects plus maybe a lower level guy to aquire him. Considering it's a semi salary dump.

[diony]

Miggy doesn't have to stay at 1B' date=' he can go to LF or become the DH. Therefore not blockingLars. The money is actually considerably less then Tex. Yes they would have to give up prospects. But it seems they are willing to shop a few. [b']And with Miggys contract what it is now, compared to what it was when Detroit traded for him, it might only take 2 top prospects plus maybe a lower level guy to aquire him. Considering it's a semi salary dump.[/b]

 

Miggys contract is not so bad, don't forget he's just 25 year old, can play four positions and doesn't has a NTC. Two top prospects? I highly doubt it.

[Dojji]

I agree with Diony. The Tigers will try to move several other contracts before they're willing to even consider moving Miguel Cabrera.

[Paradisecity]

Isn't his personality a sort of "Manny-Lite"???

 

I have a feeling that the front office will not be jumping at the chance for more of that...

[rician blast]

Wow' date=' hilarious. They didn't sign Tex because of the money (and Lars Anderson), now you guys are proposing trading a pack of prospects for Cabrera + eating a 141m/7 contract. Oh right that makes all the sense in the world.[/quote']

 

 

I generally try and not offend people here, but without fully expressing my dismay with your post I have to ask, are you half a retard?

 

They didn't sign Tex because he DID NOT WANT TO GO TO BOSTON. Don't you f***ing pay attention?

[BSN07]

Miggys contract is not so bad' date=' don't forget he's just 25 year old, can play four positions and doesn't has a NTC. Two top prospects? I highly doubt it.[/quote']

 

Miggys contract isn't bad for a large market team. And other then the last couple seasons Detroit has never been a big spender.

 

Go with me for a second guys. I understand there are other contracts they would move first. But if the Sox come in with a big enough offer, and willing to take on all of Miggys contract, then I'm sure they will consider it. But this is only assuming they need to cut payroll. If they are in this mode, and ownership tell the team to move Mig's contract, there are only a handful of teams that could take on that. And out of teams that could take it on, Boston is the one team looking for an impact bat, has the prospects to get it done, and have the financial ability.

 

If Detroit is limited in options, then Buchholz,Lugo,+2 prospect(upper level guys) will look very tempting.

[BSN07]

Isn't his personality a sort of "Manny-Lite"???

 

I have a feeling that the front office will not be jumping at the chance for more of that...

 

Yes, production wise and attitude wise they are similar.

 

 

Miggy is young enough to change tho IMO. Given the right enviorment, this guy could be one of the Best RH hitters in the game.

[diony]

Miggys contract isn't bad for a large market team. And other then the last couple seasons Detroit has never been a big spender.

 

Go with me for a second guys. I understand there are other contracts they would move first. But if the Sox come in with a big enough offer, and willing to take on all of Miggys contract, then I'm sure they will consider it. But this is only assuming they need to cut payroll. If they are in this mode, and ownership tell the team to move Mig's contract, there are only a handful of teams that could take on that. And out of teams that could take it on, Boston is the one team looking for an impact bat, has the prospects to get it done, and have the financial ability.

 

If Detroit is limited in options, then Buchholz,Lugo,+2 prospect(upper level guys) will look very tempting.

 

Their payroll was 138 million last season. So I don't know what you mean.

 

But if you're right and they need to clear payroll, they would unload Magglio, Guillen, Willis, Sheffield, Robertson and Bonderman before trading Cabrera.

 

Buchholz and Lugo? Buchholz ok, but Lugo doesn't sounds very tempting to me.

[jacksonianmarch]

We established this already. In fact' date=' it's a main point to the argument. In a time where it's reasonable to think some teams including Detroit(possibly hardest hit city by finanical crisis), might be willing to move a big contract more they would have been.[/quote']

 

I dont think the Tigers will even miss a beat so long as they dont jack up ticket prices. So lightening the load for them isnt much of an argument.

[Dipre]

Their payroll was 138 million last season. So I don't know what you mean.

 

But if you're right and they need to clear payroll, they would unload Magglio, Guillen, Willis, Sheffield, Robertson and Bonderman before trading Cabrera.

 

Buchholz and Lugo? Buchholz ok, but Lugo doesn't sounds very tempting to me.

 

Agree with him on this one.

 

No trade for established talent should include the name Julio Lugo.