Send Ellsbury down?

[ORS]

I don't think we are in agreement. I'm stating, unequivocally, that he needs to go down to see what JVE can do given a chance. Not, the FO knows what's what so I'll trust their decision. This needs to happen.

 

Here's his BB-Ref minor's page. link

[example1]

I think it is an interesting and important discussion, and when I search my soul I realize that part of me is tending to play devil's advocate on this one to move the discussion along.

 

I'm actually inclined to agree with your more-immediate approach for two reasons:

 

1) the season is growing short. When the rosters are expanded soon Ellsbury can re-join the team (if he hasn't already) and may have worked out his kinks with consistent time in AAA.

 

2) Ellsbury is young so there will be plenty of time for him to be a young and productive player. His numbers are in no way irreplacable, and with Crisp his defense is negated anyway.

 

If my argument holds (that he's young and shouldn't be expected to be the offensive centerpiece of the team immediately), then it should also hold that they can do without him on the roster for a few months in a year where they are legitimately contending for a World Series and are fortunate enough to have a guy like JVE lighting up AAA. He can still ultimately provide that bench support or get his swing back, but the Sox can give a shot to a guy who is playing at the PEAK of his potential at the peak of his career and you'll hear no complaints from me.

 

I am not as strong in my support for the move as you (and others) are, because I can tolerate a "good enough" approach from a team that has had players like Ricky Guitteriez and Dave McCarty and Gabe Kaplar in the past and been fine. I see immediate vs. long-term benefits as the main argument, and right now I am fine with them choosing the immediate benefit of giving JVE a shot.

 

 

PS--I hope you know you don't have to provide overall stat links to me ORS... I appreciate it, but c'mon man, I can find them!! I looked at his stats but didn't know how his defensive/on-basepaths skills played out.

 

PPS--One thing I can definitely look at and salivate over is JVE's .529 and .524 SLG the past two years. At 28 he promises to not become a hall-of famer, but he also promises some maturity and substantial professional experience.

[Jasonbay44]

I don't know if we should send down Ellsbury but we should send down Buchholz for sure...

[Paradisecity]

I can be somewhat satisfied with Ellsbury's production as a rookie.

 

I can't be satisfied with his production as the leadoff hitter and therefore the catalyst of the lineup, which is the role he is slated for.

 

They are tough shoes to fill but it is what is expected of him, and unless we get him hitting well we aren't going deep in the playoffs. Last night's lineup was one of the most ridiculous I've seen with JD Drew hitting leadoff.

[Mr Crunchy]

didnt he carry a .400 obp into the game?

they need a spark,ellsebury was that spark last year but this year hes flat and hes pressing.

[TheKilo]

I would have stuck with Pedroia leading off but I won't question putting the guy who gets on base at a better clip than anyone on the team leadoff.

[Mr Crunchy]

ya

just like oakland used to do with scott hatteberg

[Paradisecity]

Ill question it when he's a .260 hitter with a .338 OBP from the leadoff position since he joined the team...

[Mr Crunchy]

hes been awful,nothing short of awful at the plate since may

[Paradisecity]

Those numbers I threw outwere Drew's as a leadoff for the sox Sean.

[TheKilo]

That's what, 4 games?

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

I don't know if we should send down Ellsbury

 

no

 

but we should send down Buchholz for sure...

 

no

[Paradisecity]

That's what' date=' 4 games?[/quote']

 

I believe its around 20 game Kilo, if you are referring to Drew's leadoff experience with the sox.

[TheKilo]

OK, my mistake.

[RobZombie]

I don't think we are in agreement. I'm stating, unequivocally, that he needs to go down to see what JVE can do given a chance. Not, the FO knows what's what so I'll trust their decision. This needs to happen.

 

Here's his BB-Ref minor's page. link

 

I find it funny that if the young CF of the future struggles for a bit some wanna be GM wants to bring in the minor league veteran who is doing well in AAA. Its completely laughable. What happens if you bring him in and he fails?

 

Jonathan VanEvery is a 28 year old minor league veteran for a reason.

 

You are talking about giving a major league job to a guy who is striking out 41% of the time and this is against AAA pitching. You don't do that unless you have some major holes in your swing. Unless you walk and hit for power like Dunn or Howard its very difficult to strike out that often and get on base enough to be a starting player on a contending team. Van Every as you've noticed, isn't a big walk guy either with a BB/K ratio of .3. Guys like that can mash in the high minors but tend not to stick in the majors because they swing at too many bad pitches. Think Russell Branyan or Billy Ashley.

 

Plus the offensive stats don't even tell you about his defense which is extremely important in CF.

 

Jacoby Ellsburry is a very talented player who is struggling right now I believe at least in part due to a wrist injury. He certainly hasn't been the same player since he injured it making a diving catch a couple of months back. As the wrist heels he should be better.

 

The idea of sending him down in favor of a 28 year old minor league veteran with horrific strikeout totals is just foolish.

[Cityofchampions33]

They're saying he's already making adjustments, as now you can see on his 3 run HR tonight he now just slides his foot into place while the pitch is being delivered unlike what the step he used to do.

[ORS]

I find it funny that if the young CF of the future struggles for a bit some wanna be GM wants to bring in the minor league veteran who is doing well in AAA. Its completely laughable. What happens if you bring him in and he fails?

 

Jonathan VanEvery is a 28 year old minor league veteran for a reason.

 

You are talking about giving a major league job to a guy who is striking out 41% of the time and this is against AAA pitching. You don't do that unless you have some major holes in your swing. Unless you walk and hit for power like Dunn or Howard its very difficult to strike out that often and get on base enough to be a starting player on a contending team. Van Every as you've noticed, isn't a big walk guy either with a BB/K ratio of .3. Guys like that can mash in the high minors but tend not to stick in the majors because they swing at too many bad pitches. Think Russell Branyan or Billy Ashley.

 

Plus the offensive stats don't even tell you about his defense which is extremely important in CF.

 

Jacoby Ellsburry is a very talented player who is struggling right now I believe at least in part due to a wrist injury. He certainly hasn't been the same player since he injured it making a diving catch a couple of months back. As the wrist heels he should be better.

 

The idea of sending him down in favor of a 28 year old minor league veteran with horrific strikeout totals is just foolish.

Bold emphasis mine. This is a great example you brought up that gets into some of the specifics for why I posted that. I realize what JVE is, but for some reason, he's got a hot bat this year. Russell Branyan came up as a plug and play and lit the world on fire for a month for the Brewers. I'm under no illusion that JVE would supplant JE as the long term CF for this team, but they could have used somebody getting on base during the month of July.

 

And it's not like I'm proposing tons of time in AAA for Jake. It's beyond the first week of August. He'd be down at the most for 3 weeks. Not earth shattering.

 

What happens if it doesn't work out? Is this a rhetorical question? The answer is pretty obvious, you go back to what you were doing before, but at least you tried something while the opportunity presented itself.

 

Now, given the way he went the other way with the pitch last night instead of trying to pull it and hitting a high, weak pop to deep SS/shallow LF (sound familiar when thinking of JE ABs?) and the mustard he put on that ball he hit out to CF, his first real good contact in quite some time, I'm inclined to see if he's found something that works. I realize that is how quickly it can turn around and this could have happened at any moment, but that doesn't mean we had to wait for it to happen at the MLB level while he's making outs 73% of the time for 2 months.

[VA Sox Fan]

I'm glad they've stuck with Jacoby, not just for last night but his overall defense is amazing and when he does get on base, he is a base stealing machine. Nice to see him hit last night, hopefully it's the start of something.

[Mr Crunchy]

kansas city has a way of restoring peoples self confidence

[VA Sox Fan]

kansas city has a way of restoring peoples self confidence

 

 

Whatever it takes.

[Dojji]

kansas city has a way of restoring peoples self confidence

 

 

Actually most years Kansas City has a way of killing us. Especially back when they were at their peak. They were among the first to expose the 2006 squad for what it was, as well.

[BoSox21]

KC wasnt playing bad going into the series either, I believe

[Mr Crunchy]

doji they havent killed us since amos otis and john mayberry played the game.

freddie patek aint walking thru that door,dennis lamp has been retired for quite a while,dan quisenberry is dead and george brett is a member of the aarp.

theres a reason why kc is the worst team in baseball every year,

the fact is they flat out suck.

i suppose if they were in the national league west they'd be competetive but in the american league they just get abused every year cause they cant afford pitching

theyre having a good year by their standards which puts them 9 or so games under 500 with less than 50 to play and they did crush the whitesox last week but lets be honest,thats the hi lite of their season and if they play as well as they have been playing we can expect them to finish at about 75 wins.

that would be a banner f***ing year for the royals i guess.

[RobZombie]

Bold emphasis mine. This is a great example you brought up that gets into some of the specifics for why I posted that. I realize what JVE is, but for some reason, he's got a hot bat this year. Russell Branyan came up as a plug and play and lit the world on fire for a month for the Brewers. I'm under no illusion that JVE would supplant JE as the long term CF for this team, but they could have used somebody getting on base during the month of July.

 

And it's not like I'm proposing tons of time in AAA for Jake. It's beyond the first week of August. He'd be down at the most for 3 weeks. Not earth shattering.

 

What happens if it doesn't work out? Is this a rhetorical question? The answer is pretty obvious, you go back to what you were doing before, but at least you tried something while the opportunity presented itself.

 

Now, given the way he went the other way with the pitch last night instead of trying to pull it and hitting a high, weak pop to deep SS/shallow LF (sound familiar when thinking of JE ABs?) and the mustard he put on that ball he hit out to CF, his first real good contact in quite some time, I'm inclined to see if he's found something that works. I realize that is how quickly it can turn around and this could have happened at any moment, but that doesn't mean we had to wait for it to happen at the MLB level while he's making outs 73% of the time for 2 months.

 

 

You present two points.

 

#1 What is the risk?

 

#2 What is the likelyhood that JVE will work out.

 

You seem to think that major league players are robots and that moving them around like fantasy baseball players has no effect on their overall development. I'd strongly disagree that the risk is minimal or zero

 

When you send down a player that has been struggling for two months you send a message to the player and the rest of the orginization. If you struggle for two months we are going to ship you out for a guy who is less talented. This sends the wrong message to prospects in the orginaztion. The message you are sending is that they really don't have a chance in the orgainzation, if they struggle they are gone. What has happened with teams that have tried this approach is that the player ends up struggling in AAA and then is shipped off to another organization where he either fails or stars. It just doesn't work.

 

The risk is two-fold. You risk harming the players developement. Additionally you risk that they will they will start playing to their level of talent and you will miss it. What if you had done this with Dustin Pedroia after HE struggled for six weeks? In Jacoby's case, an injury has likely had an effect on his play, so you risk that he recovers and becomes the player that he was before he was injured.

 

Of course the upside is that JVE comes up and lights the world on fire for six weeks. The likelyhood of this happening is very low.

 

Here is how JVE has performed over the past six weeks.

 

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Jonathan%20Van%20Every&pos=&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=457508

 

It seems as though AAA pitchers have found his weeknesses and started consistantly getting him out. This is what happens when you strike out in nearly half your ABs, as JVE has through July and August. Its very unlikely that he comes up and becomes Russell Branyan. Branyan BTW SLGed .700 in the EL for a short time at age 22. Something JVE could never do. If is striking out this much against AAA pitching, what do you think will happen against major league pitching. Plus you are sacrificing the speed and defense that Ellsburry brings.

 

I hate to be harsh ONS but your suggestion is akin to a guy who calls WEEI calling for the rookies head by taking a look at the stat line for the guy in AAA. I always shake my head and turn on System of the Down when those calls come in, as I think most knowledgeable fans do.

[ORS]

Ignoring the psychobabble - and I'm not trying to insult you there, I just don't think we should take coddling to the level of worrying about feelings when making roster moves based on performance - I have a couple of problems with what you posted.

 

One, if he's struggling from an injury, it makes more sense to me to have him recover to his normal level of play where a sub .300 OBP doesn't contribute to losing baseball for the Boston Red Sox.

 

Two, if he recovers in the minors, then he gets called back up. You make it sound like you lost him for the season. You'd lose about a week's worth of normal production out of him. Unless, he's only good a week at a time, which means he should probably be in AAA anyway.

 

You make whatever assumptions and comparisons about me you need to in order to get yourself through the day.

[RedSoxRooter]

I wouldn't send him down unless VanEvery could be the next Sam Horn. It's not a bad idea though, the Sox do need more HR power.

[RedSoxRooter]

s***. f*** that. I just looked at VanEvery's stats. Three words: Mark f***ing Bellhorn. Dude strikes out every 3 times up. f*** that. I'm out. No way.

 

Ellsbury stays put.

[TheKilo]

Again, it's awesome how quick people forget how important Mark Bellhorn was for the Red Sox.

[Cocos Disciples]

Again' date=' it's awesome how quick people forget how important Mark Bellhorn was for the Red Sox.[/quote']

 

I was thinking the same. 17 home runs, .817 OPS in 2004. I'd take that.

[RobZombie]

Ignoring the psychobabble - and I'm not trying to insult you there, I just don't think we should take coddling to the level of worrying about feelings when making roster moves based on performance - I have a couple of problems with what you posted.

 

One, if he's struggling from an injury, it makes more sense to me to have him recover to his normal level of play where a sub .300 OBP doesn't contribute to losing baseball for the Boston Red Sox.

 

Two, if he recovers in the minors, then he gets called back up. You make it sound like you lost him for the season. You'd lose about a week's worth of normal production out of him. Unless, he's only good a week at a time, which means he should probably be in AAA anyway.

 

You make whatever assumptions and comparisons about me you need to in order to get yourself through the day.

 

This is becoming sort of moot as Ellsburry has played well in the last couple of series before hurting his but.

 

For the record you DO NOT make roster decisions based only upon past performance of a couple of months. You make them based upon what you think the players future performance will be and how sending them down to AAA might effect them.

 

That doesn't mean that you NEVER send a player down for fear of hurting their feelings, but it does mean that you don't send a player down unless there is an option that has a significant chance of being better.

 

You think that there is no harm in sending him down and trying someone else. But there is even absent of what you call "psychobabble".

 

First you risk that Jacoby will make adjustments and start playing to his level of talent and do so for the Paw Sox. Second you give up on the player's considerable speed and defense. Third you never give the player a chance to make adjustments at the major league level. If he doesn't do so now, when is he going to do it?

 

Now taking this risk would be one thing if you had a guy in AAA who had a realistic chance of doing well. But I assure you that a guy that is striking out half the time in AAA does not.

 

Giving talented players a chance to do work through their struggles is something that the Red Sox have done with great success over the last five years. They didn't take Pedroia's job away after a bad month, and they didn't give up on Lugo last year either. Heck you could even go back to giving Ortiz a chance to shine even though he had a poor first couple of months in 03.

 

Why change course now when the only other options are clearly worse players than Ellsburry is?