Send Ellsbury down?

[TheKilo]

Is Ellsbury responsible for Beckett's 5.74 ERA over the past month? How about the success of the 'pen?

 

You know I like Ellsbury, but I would say the same thing of just about anyone else. Ellsbury is part of the struggles for the Sox, but he isn't the sole reason.

 

I think the FO (and most of the rest of the league) believes that Ellsbury will ultimately be a player much more like he was during the end of last year and the beginning 1/3 of this season than he is over the past 2 months. That may not be 2008, but that doesn't mean they should give up on him. A team like the Red Sox should be able to (and can) tolerate his growing pains. The pay off (IMO) is a less powerful but very impactful version of Grady Sizemore, and one of the best leadoff hitters in the game. Stick with him, it can pay off for the next 10 years.

 

This team is too good for a rookie like Ellsbury to be the reason that they aren't winning.

 

So you think his career will be fueled by completely unsustainable BABIP rates?

 

I'm not trying to be difficult, I just can't see any reason for this optimism right now. He doesn't walk and he doesn't hit for power. His BABIP last month was .288 (league average is ~.290). I can't buy the "bad luck" argument for him anymore.

 

I'd send him down and call up Van Every to play CF.

[Paradisecity]

I think he should take a couple days off, then spend about 2-3 weeks in the minors getting back to his previous form.

 

He's pressing big time, and I think ever since that wrist injury his swing mechanics have been off.

[Dojji]

If you were going to send him down the time to do it is right now so that he can have a few weeks to get his work in before rosters expand. Coco can hold down the fort in CF just as well as he did last year -- we won with his limited offense but fine D in center last year and can do it again if that's what it takes to get Jaco right. JVE will make a fine 4th OF to complement Crisp's effectiveness against lefties too.

[Rdsxmbnt]

While pitchers normally operate around a league average BABIP, many of the leagues best hitters consistently hit quite a bit above league average, particularly the guys with speed like Ellsbury.

(04-08)

Ichiro: .399-.316-.348-.389-.325

Crawford: .322-.325-.331-.374-.296

 

While he's not going to consistently have a .380 BABIP, I'd expect it to be higher than it is now. Ellsbury's LD% is at 21.7% which places him pretty high in the AL and LD% generally correlates pretty well with a higher BABIP.

 

I'm not in favor of sending him down. Clearly he is in a big funk right now but I think a little time off would be a better solution. While not perfect, imo the stats indicate he has the ability to play at a higher level than he's currently demonstrating. He actually has a 3.4 WARP so he's not completely unproductive.

[BoSox21]

I personally think you gotta let him fight through it the way the organization let Pedroia fight through his struggles

[TheKilo]

I personally think you gotta let him fight through it the way the organization let Pedroia fight through his struggles

 

I don't find the Pedroia struggles accurate though. Pedroia had a ~.205 BABIP last April and was at least exhibiting some plate discipline.

[BoSox21]

I don't find the Pedroia struggles accurate though. Pedroia had a ~.205 BABIP last April and was at least exhibiting some plate discipline.

 

true, but I think Pedroia will still be a better hitter than Ellsbury when both players maximize their potential. But the stuggles most young players face have something in common. its a case of a kid no one knows coming up hitting, then pitchers make adjustments to those guys. the young player then has to follow up with adjustments of his own and I think Ellsbury will do that

[TheKilo]

He hasn't for two months.

 

He won't be banished to AAA forever, but I think two weeks down there to get his head right wouldn't hurt.

[TheKilo]

While pitchers normally operate around a league average BABIP, many of the leagues best hitters consistently hit quite a bit above league average, particularly the guys with speed like Ellsbury.

(04-08)

Ichiro: .399-.316-.348-.389-.325

Crawford: .322-.325-.331-.374-.296

 

While he's not going to consistently have a .380 BABIP, I'd expect it to be higher than it is now. Ellsbury's LD% is at 21.7% which places him pretty high in the AL and LD% generally correlates pretty well with a higher BABIP.

 

I'm not in favor of sending him down. Clearly he is in a big funk right now but I think a little time off would be a better solution. While not perfect, imo the stats indicate he has the ability to play at a higher level than he's currently demonstrating. He actually has a 3.4 WARP so he's not completely unproductive.

 

While I don't disagree with this post, I question the LD%. To my recollection, a lot of his "line drives" have been very soft line drives and not squared up - how does one classify an at bat resulting in a line drive?

[example1]

So you think his career will be fueled by completely unsustainable BABIP rates?

 

I'm not trying to be difficult, I just can't see any reason for this optimism right now. He doesn't walk and he doesn't hit for power. His BABIP last month was .288 (league average is ~.290). I can't buy the "bad luck" argument for him anymore.

 

I'd send him down and call up Van Every to play CF.

 

I think it is important to point out that hitting in front of guys like Pedroia, Ortiz, Manny should be an advantage. However, it is also a curse because you are absolutely, positively going to get attacked. A guy like Ellsbury, who may need to take some bumps for a few months, will gett attacked by opposing pitchers as his out is one of the few they can hope to get against this lineup. The bottom of the order should help with that.

 

 

I'm fine with whatever they do at this point. However, I think it is fair to point out that BABIP should be adjusted for players who have as much speed as Ellsbury. It isn't a coincidence that Ichiro's BABIP has been as high as it has. Balls in play are harder to get those guys out, plain and simple.

 

Perhaps Ellsbury could use some time in AAA to gather himself, but I think the Sox may be back in a spot where they can afford to have a guy who "just" plays gg caliber CF and doesn't produce a whole lot from the bottom of the order.

 

I see plenty of reason for optimism: he's young and he HAS produced at the MLB level for weeks-on-end (so the 'he can't handle MLB view'--not yours, but a common complaint against rookies--doesn't hold water IMO).

 

If there's someone in AAA who is hitting better and who deserves a shot, sure, go for it. I just still see lots of reasons for optimism about Ellsbury. It would be foolish for the Sox to give up on him at this point.

[TheKilo]

I'm fine with whatever they do at this point. However, I think it is fair to point out that BABIP should be adjusted for players who have as much speed as Ellsbury. It isn't a coincidence that Ichiro's BABIP has been as high as it has. Balls in play are harder to get those guys out, plain and simple.

 

Perhaps Ellsbury could use some time in AAA to gather himself, but I think the Sox may be back in a spot where they can afford to have a guy who "just" plays gg caliber CF and doesn't produce a whole lot from the bottom of the order.

 

I see plenty of reason for optimism: he's young and he HAS produced at the MLB level for weeks-on-end (so the 'he can't handle MLB view'--not yours, but a common complaint against rookies--doesn't hold water IMO).

 

If there's someone in AAA who is hitting better and who deserves a shot, sure, go for it. I just still see lots of reasons for optimism about Ellsbury. It would be foolish for the Sox to give up on him at this point.

 

No one's "giving up" on him - but I can't take away anything positive from his last two months, either. For a significant stretch of that time, he was leading off and hurting the ballclub with his inability to get on base.

 

I would give Crisp more playing time if they insist on keeping him with the Red Sox, however something needs to be said of the fact it's been two months and it looks like he hasn't progressed or made any adjustments at all.

[example1]

No one's "giving up" on him - but I can't take away anything positive from his last two months, either. For a significant stretch of that time, he was leading off and hurting the ballclub with his inability to get on base.

 

I would give Crisp more playing time if they insist on keeping him with the Red Sox, however something needs to be said of the fact it's been two months and it looks like he hasn't progressed or made any adjustments at all.

 

Adjustments happen in lots of ways. I know that, for me, it would take a lot of time simply to adjust to the MLB schedule, cross-country travel, getting into town late, and then facing MLB caliber pitching. I'm not making excuses, but I'm also the type who believes that going through the hard times is often a prerequesate for growth.

 

I won't argue with you about the results on the offensive side of the ball. He would be allowed to go through this process on most other teams, and I think his talent warrants not religating him to the doghouse if we can avoid it and remain competitive.

 

Sure, give Crisp more ABs.

[Dojji]

Was sending Buchholz to Pawtucket 'relegating him to the doghouse?'

[jacksonianmarch]

Ellsbury should be sent down. Take a look at the overall numbers first.

 

.259/.323/.352. That is a .323 OBP for a starting CFer who is supposed to be a leadoff hitter. His OPS is less than .700 as well, making him a poor option. And when the sox have an option who has a better OPS and plays better D, you have to play him.

 

Now lets look at the recent record. June, July, August OPS's. .592, .566, .222. This isnt a short slump. His OPS has declined every month. His OPS in April and May were good for a speedster. His OPS for June on has been awful, and once again declining. Might be time to do something

[BoSox21]

Was sending Buchholz to Pawtucket 'relegating him to the doghouse?'

 

no, he was on an extended rehab assignment cause Andre the Giant Jr. was pitching well

[example1]

Tend to your own house Jacko. Let's replace the word "Ellsbury" with the words "Melky Cabrera" and then we can talk about sending both of them down or not talk at all.

 

Ellsbury: .259/.323/.352

Cabrera: .242/.296/.341

 

I'm inclined to let him stick with the big club if only because his secondary skills (defense and base running) are both exceptional and will be valuable off the bench. I am also confident that he will bounce back from these poor performances.

 

TheKilo, you're making too much of my quote above. I clearly didn't say that he's doing great, or that he's having a wonderful season. What I said was the the Red Sox were NOT losing because of Jacoby Ellsbury. He would certainly have helped contribute to victories if his OPS were approaching .800 instead of .600, but to focus on him as the sole reason for losses is myopic.

[TheKilo]

At what point do you send him down, then? We've gotta be awfully close to that point, right?

[TheKilo]

As for his baserunning being exceptional...he hasn't stolen a base since July 1. That's awful.

[example1]

At what point do you send him down' date=' then? We've gotta be awfully close to that point, right?[/quote']

 

I'm not the one who makes that decision so I can't really quantify it. I don't think it particularly helps Ellsbury to send him down rather than making him a backup to Crisp. If Crisp is too weak an option then that's a Crisp problem, not an Ellsbury problem. Van Every is having a good season, but it seems abnormally good compared to his historical performance.

 

You're starting with the premise that it's Ellsbury's fault the team lost recently, I'm not. So it is logical that your solution for the team involves doing something with Ellsbury, mine doesn't necessarily.

 

While the Yankees rattled off an impressive winning streak and gained ground on the Sox there weren't many calls for Melky to go to AAA, even though his numbers this year have been worse than Jacoby's. Again, there is value to someone providing great defense and scoring runs even if other numbers leave something to be desired.

[TheKilo]

I'm not the one who makes that decision so I can't really quantify it. I don't think it particularly helps Ellsbury to send him down rather than making him a backup to Crisp. If Crisp is too weak an option then that's a Crisp problem, not an Ellsbury problem. Van Every is having a good season, but it seems abnormally good compared to his historical performance.

 

You're starting with the premise that it's Ellsbury's fault the team lost recently, I'm not. So it is logical that your solution for the team involves doing something with Ellsbury, mine doesn't necessarily.

 

While the Yankees rattled off an impressive winning streak and gained ground on the Sox there weren't many calls for Melky to go to AAA, even though his numbers this year have been worse than Jacoby's. Again, there is value to someone providing great defense and scoring runs even if other numbers leave something to be desired.

 

I'm not saying "Ellsbury is losing us games", I'm asking "At what point does Ellsbury's performance hinder our chances at winning baseball games?"

 

Ellsbury is not as good as Crisp defensively. He isn't as good offensively this season, and he hasn't been doing any baserunning at all.

 

The difference in our opinions lie in that you feel Ellsbury will break out of his slump whereas I have seen nothing that convinces me of that.

 

Playing Crisp is an upgrade over Ellsbury right now. I don't think there's any doubt about that.

[example1]

As for his baserunning being exceptional...he hasn't stolen a base since July 1. That's awful.

 

I guess I feel like you're trying to start an argument and I'm simply not giving you the ammunition.

 

You clearly must believe it is Ellbury's fault the Sox were losing--you said it in earlier posts--because that's the only thing we disagree on. I think that's overly reductionistic and I don't think that's how baseball works. There's room on the bench and a perfectly adequate CF on the bench who is making a lot more money and who started nearly every day last year. What's wrong with letting Crisp play and sitting Ellsbury?

 

I just don't think it is the be all and end all of the Sox season, you do. We start with different premises and I think any argument from that point-on is kind of moot.

 

Is Ellsbury underproducing? yes. Did the Sox win with an underproducing CF last year? Yes. Do teams all over the league have a player or two who are disappointing for long periods? Yes. Can those teams still be contenders for World Series champions? Yes.

 

I feel you're missing the forest for the trees--the Sox have the 4th best record in ALL OF BASEBALL. They have the best run differential in the AL. They just moved their biggest headache and have a good schedule from here on out. We can focus on Ellsbury as the one key piece that's keeping this team from winning, but I would counter that a) they are winning, and if Lowell, Drew, Ortiz, Youkilis, Pedroia, Bay, Varitek, Beckett, Matsuzaka, Lester, Buchholz, Wakefield, Delcarmen, and Papelbon are all doing their jobs, the Sox should win more times than not and be just fine.

 

To me, the best case scenario is that the veterans and highly paid guys do their job and the Sox win. The fan base gets off their irrational view that one mediocre player is the sole reason they are losing to teams like the Angels and realize that we have a good team nonetheless.

 

All will be fine TheKilo, seriously.

[TheKilo]

I am not saying Ellsbury is the reason we are losing baseball games.

 

I think putting him in the lineup right now hinders our chances to win baseball games (I still think they are very good, but they could be better). I want to put the best team on the field every night, and right now Ellsbury would not be among them because I feel Crisp is a better option.

 

Yes, Ellsbury's 2007 in a nutshell was better than Crisp's, but Crisp had a ~140 AB stretch that was just as good as Ellsbury's too.

[example1]

I am not saying Ellsbury is the reason we are losing baseball games.

 

I think putting him in the lineup right now hinders our chances to win baseball games (I still think they are very good, but they could be better). I want to put the best team on the field every night, and right now Ellsbury would not be among them because I feel Crisp is a better option.

 

Yes, Ellsbury's 2007 in a nutshell was better than Crisp's, but Crisp had a ~140 AB stretch that was just as good as Ellsbury's too.

 

So we agree: Ellsbury can play in the lineup, go to the bench, or spend some time in AAA and the Sox are a very good team regardless. My inclination then would be to let him take his bumps at MLB so he gets over the 'hurdle' of finding his stroke against MLB pitchers, rather than having him do so at AAA and then have to do it again at the MLB level. The Sox (rightly) want this kid to feel he belongs at MLB because he's proven what he needs to in the minors.

[Thumper]

If I recall earlier when Ellsbury first started slumping, they blamed it on the pitchers adjusting to how he hit. And he's yet to compensate for it. But his numbers really have gone down significantly. I don't think he's a bad player, or causing the team to lose. But he sure isn't helping them win either. And with Crisp on the roster I'd like to see him play more. Have Ellsbury take a stint down in Triple-A, and if he's looking good come roster expansion, call him back up. Couldn't hurt, we've got the depth in the bench to do it.

[ORS]

So we agree: Ellsbury can play in the lineup' date=' go to the bench, or spend some time in AAA and the Sox are a very good team regardless. My inclination then would be to let him take his bumps at MLB so he gets over the 'hurdle' of finding his stroke against MLB pitchers, rather than having him do so at AAA and then have to do it again at the MLB level. The Sox (rightly) want this kid to feel he belongs at MLB because he's proven what he needs to in the minors.[/quote']

See, I don't like this. This a "good enough" argument. No, put the best team on the field. Van Every has earned a shot to see if he's part of the best team, and Jacoby has earned some remediation in Pawtucket.

[jacksonianmarch]

Tend to your own house Jacko. Let's replace the word "Ellsbury" with the words "Melky Cabrera" and then we can talk about sending both of them down or not talk at all.

 

 

I like you, but you are an idiot in this thread.

 

Melky should have been sent down a month ago.

Everyone knows I supported this a month ago

[example1]

See' date=' I don't like this. This a "good enough" argument. No, put the best team on the field. Van Every has earned a shot to see if he's part of the best team, and Jacoby has earned some remediation in Pawtucket.[/quote']

 

Your inclination vs. mine. I don't think there is any hard-and-fast rule for how to handle a rookie who is struggling, but you'll see that I also said "Ellsbury can play in the lineup, go to the bench, or spend some time in AAA and the Sox are a very good team regardless".

 

My inclination would be for him to be the 4th OF, but I'm fine with giving Van Every a shot too. I also want the best team possible.

 

Ultimately, I believe that best team possible will include Ellsbury but right now that may be Van Every.

 

Frankly, I don't care that much which direction they go with it. I trust the FO will make the right decision between Crisp, Ellsbury and VanEvery.

[example1]

I like you' date=' but you are an idiot in this thread. [/quote']

 

How so? Because I'm not wholeheartedly endorsing the Sox sending Ellsbury to AAA in favor of Van Every? I've said in multiple places now that I don't care, but that Ellsbury is who the Sox see as their everyday CF of the future and they are going to treat him like that.

 

I'm an idiot because I told you to tend to your own house? If I were you I wouldn't be complaining about (or criticizing) the Sox CF without a very strongly stated caveat that your own team is doing the exact same thing--just in case I hadn't been reading your every post over the past few months with a magnifying glass.

 

Of course, I think the Sox have a better backup option than the Yankees do for CF, so that inclines me to keep Ellsbury on the bench rather than AAA for his baserunning and fielding skills.

[ORS]

Your inclination vs. mine. I don't think there is any hard-and-fast rule for how to handle a rookie who is struggling, but you'll see that I also said "Ellsbury can play in the lineup, go to the bench, or spend some time in AAA and the Sox are a very good team regardless".

 

My inclination would be for him to be the 4th OF, but I'm fine with giving Van Every a shot too. I also want the best team possible.

 

Ultimately, I believe that best team possible will include Ellsbury but right now that may be Van Every.

 

Frankly, I don't care that much which direction they go with it. I trust the FO will make the right decision between Crisp, Ellsbury and VanEvery.

Right, but unless you want to just DFA Crisp, to bring JVE up, somebody has to go down. Ellsbury has options. He goes down.

[example1]

Right' date=' but unless you want to just DFA Crisp, to bring JVE up, somebody has to go down. Ellsbury has options. He goes down.[/quote']

 

Sure. I don't disagree that if the Sox believe that Van Every can be a solid contributer then he should be up. If they feel it would be best to let Ellsbury battle through the struggles then that makes sense to me too.

 

I said earlier that there isn't a hard-and-fast rule for how to handle struggling rookies in terms of their development. If you have one you should let me know. Otherwise, we're in agreement.

 

I'm asking because I don't really know: what does JVE offer off the bench that Ellsbury cannot? Can he be a late-inning pinch runner? Is he a plus defender in CF if needed? Or would his major attribute be his bat? Again, I'm asking, not rhetoricizing (that's not the right word E1!! ).