The KiloMetric, Part Deux

[TheKilo]

8/4 Update:

 

[table]Team|Predicted Record|Actual Record|Differential

Tampa|76-53|79-50|+3

New York|73-57|70-60|-3

Boston|76-55|75-55|-0.5[/table]

 

Tampa gains another game in Chicago. When will they fade, if ever? Can Toronto slow them down in the Trop this week?

 

The Yankees finally gain a game on their projections. This is their shot to get back into the WC chase, if they take 2/3 from the Sox I'll say they're back in contention (although 4 back, with the Twins and/or White Sox out there makes catching the WC leader more difficult). The stars are aligned for them to do so as I expect them to pound Wakefield and Byrd, the question is can they beat Lester?

 

The Sox on the other hand can effectively bury the Yanks if they take 2/3 as they will be 6 up in the loss column.

[jacksonianmarch]

the yankees will not jump back in this. They need to take all 3 vs the sox IMO and that entails the sox not beating the living piss out of Sidney Fatson. Granted, the loss of Manny all of a sudden makes Moose a bit more effective against the sox, but the series needs to be swept. That being said, the Twins are going nowhere and are likely gonna take it to the rack as ALC champs. The White Sox are the wild card IMO. If they can play well vs some stiff competition, then the WC could come out of the central this yr.

[TheKilo]

Sidney Fatson has been surprisingly effective. I think the wild card in this whole series is Tim Wakefield. If he can give them a QS then the Sox have a real good shot at 2/3.

[jacksonianmarch]

I agree. We have hit Wakey pretty well of late (he used to dominate us) and Byrd has been hit or miss off us of late (we used to own him). To be honest with you, only one of your top 3 throws in the series, while our top two are going, so I expect 2 of 3. Anything less, and you might as well toss in the towel.

[jmcc]

I agree with the sentiments about the series coming down to the pitching of the unknown variables. If Wake succeeds and Sidney doesn't, it goes to the Sox, and vice versa.

A good August series to look forward to.

[rician blast]

while our top two are going

 

Pavano is pitching?

[yankees228]

I agree. We have hit Wakey pretty well of late (he used to dominate us) and Byrd has been hit or miss off us of late (we used to own him). To be honest with you' date=' only one of your top 3 throws in the series, while our top two are going, so I expect 2 of 3. Anything less, and you might as well toss in the towel.[/quote']

 

I thought you already tossed in the towel?

[jacksonianmarch]

I did. I am saying management and players. When our rotation includes Rasner, Ponson, and Pavano as well as a 5 game deficit with 30 or so games to play, the towel is in.

[soxfan17881]

...Granted' date=' the loss of Manny all of a sudden makes Moose a bit more effective against the sox...[/quote']

 

http://i248.photobucket.com/albums/gg189/rassmuss1/blog/bayvmussina.jpg

 

Very little data to go on, but so far so good.

[TheKilo]

8/30 Update:

 

[table]Team|Predicted Record|Actual Record|Differential

Tampa|78-54|81-51|+3

New York|75-58|71-62|-4

Boston|77-57|77-56|+0.5[/table]

[Gom]

I did. I am saying management and players. When our rotation includes Rasner' date=' Ponson, and Pavano as well as a 5 game deficit with 30 or so games to play, the towel is in.[/quote']

No, but Cashman is doing a great job. Really. Like not claiming Byrd. He sucks...oh wait, he only outpitched Ponson.

 

Cashman for Exec of the Year.

[TheKilo]

8/31 Update:

 

[table]Team|Predicted Record|Actual Record|Differential

Tampa|81-54|84-51|+3

New York|77-59|72-64|-5

Boston|78-59|79-57|+1.5[/table]

 

Key Takeaways from this weekend's series:

 

NYY - Stick a fork in this team, they are done. 7 back of the Red Sox, 5 behind the White Sox. Ponson and Rasner in the rotation. 10 game roadie coming up. All things spell the end of the Yankee postseason streak.

 

Coming up - Makeup game at Detroit, 3 in TB. Maybe they could help the Sox out a little bit? Not likely. Expect a 1-3 record the next 4.

 

BOS - The Red Sox and Yankees have one thing in common - hopes for a division title are dead. Difference is, the Sox have a tremendous chance at the postseason and have put themselves in a great position heading into September. I love the way this team is playing right now (tonight's clunker aside) - if Beckett comes back healthy, I like their chances against any team in the AL. Lots of home games in September. When Drew and Lowell come back healthy, they'll be in great shape for the stretch run.

 

5.5 is too much to make up, however.

 

Coming up - Three against the lowly O's. Byrd, Lester, DiceK. Really looking for a sweep but I'll take 2/3.

 

TB - The team that won't die swept a terrible O's team this weekend. No signs of slowing down, they'll get Longoria back soon. Kazmir, Shields, Garza is a fordmiable top 3 come playoff time.

 

Coming up - Three against the Yankees. Continue to bring pain and misery to Yankee fans!

[TheKilo]

9/6 Update:

 

[table]Team|Predicted Record|Actual Record|Differential

Tampa|82-56|85-53|+3

New York|78-62|75-65|-3

Boston|81-59|82-57|+1.5[/table]

[TheKilo]

9/11 Update:

 

[table]Team|Predicted Record|Actual Record|Differential

Tampa|84-60|87-57|+3

New York|81-65|77-69|-4

Boston|84-62|85-62|+2.5[/table]

[TheKilo]

9/19 Update (at conclusion of last series)

 

[table]Team|Predicted Record|Actual Record|Differential

Tampa|87-63|89-61|+2

New York|85-68|82-71|-3

Boston|86-66|89-63|+3[/table]