Blow it Up

[TheKilo]

FTR - my last ~25 posts were sarcastic.

[Cocos Disciples]

Actually I think it's pretty important as it speaks to the biggest issue a pitcher can have and one of Buchholz' biggest bogeymen -- the ability, or lack thereof, to hold a lead.

 

Trusting Buchholz to hold a lead is like stopping for a hitchhiker wearing a hockey mask on a dark, moonless late November night. Sometimes you can get away with it, but the gamble doesn't seem smart.

 

Lester impressed me in the clutch even when he was bad. Sure part of his win-loss record is the team bailing him out but some of that was Lester's fault too.

 

I guess what I'm saying is that even if wins isn't a particularly accurate metric of a pitcher's overall level of talent it still says something about how well they're doing.

 

But a pitcher can go 7 innings, allow 1 run and get a loss. A pitcher can also go 5 innings, allow 5 runs and get a win. I mean, W-L says something about how a pitcher is doing, but I can think of tons of stats that say more.

[Dojji]

But a pitcher can go 7 innings' date=' allow 1 run and get a loss. A pitcher can also go 5 innings, allow 5 runs and get a win. I mean, W-L says [i']something[/i] about how a pitcher is doing, but I can think of tons of stats that say more.

 

But at its most fundamental a pitcher's job is to hold the lead -- not even necessarily to keeo the opposition off the board (although that surely helps) but just to hold a lead. If a pitcher gets a lot of short "underserved" wins he's at least holding the lead while he's in there.

[Rdsxmbnt]

For all the crying about Theo not getting bullpen help, things are shaping up quite nicely.

Papelbon is Papelbon, Delcarmen and Okajima are pitching well. Lopez is also and Masterson looks fantastic. Aardsma ain't half bad either.

[TheKilo]

But at its most fundamental a pitcher's job is to hold the lead -- not even necessarily to keeo the opposition off the board (although that surely helps) but just to hold a lead. If a pitcher gets a lot of short "underserved" wins he's at least holding the lead while he's in there.

 

No, a pitcher's fundamental job is to not give up runs.

[Dojji]

No' date=' a pitcher's fundamental job is to not give up runs.[/quote']

 

I'm sorry, but you're wrong. Nobody cares if a pitcher surrenders 5 runs as long as the lineup scores 6.

 

A pitcher's job is to allow fewer runs than the lineup scores for as long as he's in the game (and as a secondary goal, to stay in the game as long as possible). It's only when he can't do that that he starts getting flagged for losses or blown saves. Allowing runs isn't an automatic penalty, failing to stay ahead of the lineup is what goes down on the permanent record as an L.

 

Lester accomplished this goal the most part even when he was bad -- thus his solid WPCT. Buchholz isn't, thus his suck WPCT. That's the difference between the two IMHO and why I hold out a bit less optimism for Buchholz than I did for Lester.

 

Now the one part of W-L that Buchholz really can't control is the opposing pitcher -- in his last 3 outings he's faced Gil Meche, Jon Lackey and Gavin Floyd, all having pretty good to very good years (Gil's ERA notwithstanding, he's a winning pitcher on a bad team). But even so, I can't let him off the hook just for that when the kid isn't holding up his own end of the game

[jacksonianmarch]

First, welcome to the board Dojji. I like seeing a new poster come in and post a good amount.

 

Second, I have to agree with....Kilo. A pitcher's job needs to be evaluated by how he does alone. You need to take his performance independent of what his team gives him. By your logic, if a pitcher is given a 9 run lead and hands the ball to the pen with a 1 run lead, then he did his job. I disagree. A pitcher's job is to minimize the amount of runs allowed while giving a maximum length. A pitcher like DiceK who will allow 2 runs in 5IP is also not doing his job. A good pitcher is someone who will allow less than 3 runs over 6 or more innings on a frequent basis.

[Mr Crunchy]

this guy is getting burnt right in front of our eyes ala hansen,he hasnt won in 3 months and has blown leads often,time to see if we can get him straight in rhode island cause hes getting his balls handed to him in the show..3hrs in 3ip yesterday is awful,just awful

[TheKilo]

I'm sorry, but you're wrong. Nobody cares if a pitcher surrenders 5 runs as long as the lineup scores 6.

 

A pitcher's job is to allow fewer runs than the lineup scores for as long as he's in the game (and as a secondary goal, to stay in the game as long as possible). It's only when he can't do that that he starts getting flagged for losses or blown saves. Allowing runs isn't an automatic penalty, failing to stay ahead of the lineup is what goes down on the permanent record as an L.

 

Lester accomplished this goal the most part even when he was bad -- thus his solid WPCT. Buchholz isn't, thus his suck WPCT. That's the difference between the two IMHO and why I hold out a bit less optimism for Buchholz than I did for Lester.

 

Now the one part of W-L that Buchholz really can't control is the opposing pitcher -- in his last 3 outings he's faced Gil Meche, Jon Lackey and Gavin Floyd, all having pretty good to very good years (Gil's ERA notwithstanding, he's a winning pitcher on a bad team). But even so, I can't let him off the hook just for that when the kid isn't holding up his own end of the game

 

I'm sorry, but you're wrong.

 

Pitcher A gets 8 runs of support per game, but has a 6.00 ERA.

Pitcher B gets 2 runs of support per game and has a 1.00 ERA.

 

You're telling me you'd rather have pitcher A?

[Dojji]

I'm sorry' date=' but [b']you're[/b] wrong.

 

Pitcher A gets 8 runs of support per game, but has a 6.00 ERA.

Pitcher B gets 2 runs of support per game and has a 1.00 ERA.

 

You're telling me you'd rather have pitcher A?

 

Pure intellectual exercise unless you put it in a game situation. I'm not talking about run support, I'm talking about pitching with a lead -- something Buchholz cannot do.

[Mr Crunchy]

cant argue and you want b

but after a while of the allowing 2 while getting 1,it can become habit forming

ask mrs david stewart aka roger clemens,historically capable of pitching just well enough to lose the big ones when he was here,when he went to ny he pitched horrible unless spotted a big lead.

[TheKilo]

Pure intellectual exercise unless you put it in a game situation. I'm not talking about run support' date=' I'm talking about pitching with a lead -- something Buchholz cannot do.[/quote']

 

A pitcher doesn't control whether or not he pitches with a lead. He can only control his performance.

[jacksonianmarch]

A pitcher doesn't control whether or not he pitches with a lead. He can only control his performance.

 

exactly

[Gom]

There is some truth to the pitching with a lead argument.

 

A pitcher with a lead should be more aggressive for the following reason: Conservation. By minimizing his pitches per inning, he can go longer and save the bullpen.

 

Pitchers should simply throw strikes and let the hitter make it happen. When a pitcher walks a batter with a decent lead, it shows an inability to understand the game situation, a lack of talent, or a lack of control [obviously] of his pitches.

 

Giving up a run or two quickly is more desirable than giving up no runs and wasting 35 pitches to do so. That's the mentality of pitching with a lead, as far as I see it.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

A pitcher doesn't control whether or not he pitches with a lead. He can only control his performance.

 

Pretty much sums it up.

[ORS]

I don't think what you are talking about fits the argument here Gom. You are talking about being less careful with a comfortable lead and throwing a sure strike in lieu of a borderline one. FTR, this is exactly what CB did yesterday and the ball got hammered.

 

Kilo and Dojji are talking about a specific skill, one might even call it "clutch", where some pitchers are better than others at holding leads despite what their pitching line suggests about the quality of their pitching.

[Dojji]

A pitcher doesn't control whether or not he pitches with a lead. He can only control his performance.

 

That's not entirely true, but I don't have the energy to hammer this the way I want to right now so I'll file this argument along with "clutchness," the value of veteran leadership, and other similar "intangibles."

[Mr Crunchy]

bob welch had a 4+ era and won 26 games with the a's

check out mussina,he can pitch around guys as long as hes getting the edges,he'll give up his runs but he has been pitching within himself,within the context of the game,theres a time you need a K and a time you just need to throw strikes,intellect is crucial in baseball

[das11209]

Per SI - Larry Luchino is likely to join the Dodgers. LA's soxification is getting better and better.

[CrespoBlows]

bob welch had a 4+ era and won 26 games with the a's

check out mussina,he can pitch around guys as long as hes getting the edges,he'll give up his runs but he has been pitching within himself,within the context of the game,theres a time you need a K and a time you just need to throw strikes,intellect is crucial in baseball

 

Dude....

 

When Bob Welch won 27 games, his ERA was under 3.00.

 

Just saying.

[TheKilo]

Dude....

 

When Bob Welch won 27 games, his ERA was under 3.00.

 

Just saying.

 

But did he know how to pitch with a lead?

[example1]

Per SI - Larry Luchino is likely to join the Dodgers. LA's soxification is getting better and better.

 

Per SI - this is nothing but baseless speculation.

 

"It's all speculation now, but it's not all that farfetched."

[riverside sluggers]

Im feeling good for a hot August that will spill over into September. 34-20 run

 

To start it off, Beckett is getting his 10th Win tonight

 

This was posted when they were 61-47

 

Sweet deal, I guess what their record would be