Bullpen Concerns

[Jayhawk Bill]

In jacko's defense' date=' if I had been a Yankee fan and Lester was a yankee, my unceasing love for him would have been ripped apart all over this board when he first came up. Similar to Lester's early goings, Kennedy looks like he sucks. [/quote']

 

Lester's very worst stretch would have been his last seven starts of 2006. He'd started 5-0 with a 2.38 ERA, but then he went 2-2 with a 7.75 ERA.

 

But...

 

1) That was just one month, July 23 to August 23, after which we got word that he'd been pitching with serious cancer, a reason for the poor performance, and

 

2) Lester only took two losses in seven games--he won twice and kept Boston in the game three other times.

 

Ian Kennedy has sucked for over two months in 2008, he's yet to record a win, the Yankees have only eventually won two games of the nine he's started, and he doesn't have a health excuse. He didn't even have the good sense to go crack his eighth rib to create an excuse for his sucking--he's just sucked.

[BoSox21]

Lester did struggle early on in his career but I wouldn't compare his 7-2, 4.76 ERA rookie year with Kennedy's 0-3, 7.4something ERA

[jacksonianmarch]

Lester's very worst stretch would have been his last seven starts of 2006. He'd started 5-0 with a 2.38 ERA, but then he went 2-2 with a 7.75 ERA.

 

But...

 

1) That was just one month, July 23 to August 23, after which we got word that he'd been pitching with serious cancer, a reason for the poor performance, and

 

2) Lester only took two losses in seven games--he won twice and kept Boston in the game three other times.

 

Ian Kennedy has sucked for over two months in 2008, he's yet to record a win, the Yankees have only eventually won two games of the nine he's started, and he doesn't have a health excuse. He didn't even have the good sense to go crack his eighth rib to create an excuse for his sucking--he's just sucked.

 

you are too smart a guy to have made such a dumb post

[ksushi]

Lester's very worst stretch would have been his last seven starts of 2006. He'd started 5-0 with a 2.38 ERA, but then he went 2-2 with a 7.75 ERA.

 

But...

 

1) That was just one month, July 23 to August 23, after which we got word that he'd been pitching with serious cancer, a reason for the poor performance, and

 

2) Lester only took two losses in seven games--he won twice and kept Boston in the game three other times.

 

Ian Kennedy has sucked for over two months in 2008, he's yet to record a win, the Yankees have only eventually won two games of the nine he's started, and he doesn't have a health excuse. He didn't even have the good sense to go crack his eighth rib to create an excuse for his sucking--he's just sucked.

 

I think the difference between both of their early numbers is that Lester was lucky to get bailed out of situations that poor performance led him to, and Kennedy is left out to dry by a bullpen that for the most part is unreliable at best. To me, that is a key difference. They were similarly poor in their early performance and I know Lester was unbeaten for quite some time but W-L record is never a tell tale stat when it comes to judging a pitchers performance.

 

Lesters WHIP numbers and total innings in those first five starts should be pretty telling when it comes to judging exactly what kind of pitcher he was in that stretch. I can tell you, as a big Lester fan when he was in the minors, I was not very impressed with the difference I saw in his performance at the major league level.

[Jayhawk Bill]

you are too smart a guy to have made such a dumb post

 

You just made a dumb post.

 

Kennedy sucks worse than Lester at his cancer-stricken worst...BTW, I forgot to mention that AL offense is down 8.2% from Lester's worst days to today, Kennedy's worst days.

 

Failing to see how badly Kennedy is doing is either an exercise in ignorance or a denial of the realities involved.

[BoSox21]

I think anyone who knows a baseball from a bowling ball would take the 2006 Jon Lester over the 2008 Ian Kennedy

[Jayhawk Bill]

I think the difference between both of their early numbers is that Lester was lucky to get bailed out of situations that poor performance led him to, and Kennedy is left out to dry by a bullpen that for the most part is unreliable at best. To me, that is a key difference. They were similarly poor in their early performance and I know Lester was unbeaten for quite some time but W-L record is never a tell tale stat when it comes to judging a pitchers performance.

 

Lesters WHIP numbers and total innings in those first five starts should be pretty telling when it comes to judging exactly what kind of pitcher he was in that stretch. I can tell you, as a big Lester fan when he was in the minors, I was not very impressed with the difference I saw in his performance at the major league level.

 

Which first five starts? :dunno:

 

***

 

Part of the issue with Lester in July-August 2006 was a high BABIP allowed from the worst Boston defense in recent years. Lester's rough BABIP allowed in those games ( (H-HR)/(BFP-BB-SO-HR) ) was .392, roughly 90 points worse than any MLB pitcher would post over the long run. Part was hitter-friendly summertime weather. A big part was comparing Lester to our hopes from AA and AAA; part was comparing him to his 5-0 record up until 23 July, 2006, the day he started to suck.

 

Look at the stats...and look at the aggregate run support as a guide to the weather in which Lester was pitching, unless you want to check actual weather conditions game by game instead.

[ksushi]

I just know what I saw was not promising from the get go. No control, no buckling down. There were bright spots, sure, especially either one hit innings against the royals and ten K's against the mets.

 

My point is simple, if Lester were a Yankee, and I a Yanks fan, the way I held out hope for him would have been beat up just as much as any Yankee fan currently holding out hope for Kennedy. It is pretty similar. That said, Lester was always the better pitcher and comparing the two is giving Kennedy too much credit.

 

's all i'm sayin'

[BoSox21]

its just hard to see anything in Kennedy that leads anyone to be optimistic he will ever be able to get major league hitters out on a consistent basis, unless he ever develops the control of Greg Maddux

[Jayhawk Bill]

My point is simple, if Lester were a Yankee, and I a Yanks fan, the way I held out hope for him would have been beat up just as much as any Yankee fan currently holding out hope for Kennedy. It is pretty similar. That said, Lester was always the better pitcher and comparing the two is giving Kennedy too much credit.

 

's all i'm sayin'

 

Thus qualified, no problem...for just that one month, July 23 - August 23, 2006.

[a700hitter]

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2008/06/ortiz_cast_remo.html

 

Ortiz has had his cast removed. He's pain free and ready to begin range of motion exercises. This is certainly good news. The news on Schilling is discouraging.

[Gom]

I think anyone who knows a baseball from a bowling ball would take the 2006 Jon Lester over the 2008 Ian Kennedy

I'd take Carl Pavano over Kennedy. Ok..maybe that's a stretch, but not by much.

[ORS]

I'd take Carl Pavano over Kennedy. Ok..maybe that's a stretch' date=' but not by much.[/quote']

Careful, if it's a stretch he might pull something.

[BSN07]

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2008/06/ortiz_cast_remo.html

 

Ortiz has had his cast removed. He's pain free and ready to begin range of motion exercises. This is certainly good news. The news on Schilling is discouraging.

 

 

 

 

Honestly, I am expecting little to nothing from Schilling this season. I know the competitor in Schilling wants to go, but I think he might have finally reached the age where your body just says no. You might get a couple good starts from him, but I just don't think he can do it consistantly. Got nothing but Love for him, but any pitches off the ML mound from him has to be considered a plus and not a guranteed thing.

[yeszir]

Careful' date=' if it's a stretch he might pull something.[/quote']

Pitchers should never have to stretch. I'm all for golf carts from the dugout to the mound.

[rician blast]

CC's "suit"ors...better have a lot of material cuz he's a fat f***.

[BSN07]

Davidoff: Sabathia Not Likely For Yankees

Ken Davidoff provides a reality check to Yankees fans this morning, explaining that Brian Cashman is just lukewarm on C.C. Sabathia (and considers Phil Hughes untouchable). The Yankees will hang around in the talks, but they are not the frontrunner. Peter Abraham says the Yanks have six weeks to make a trade, which could be for a lesser pitcher like Paul Byrd or Randy Wolf.

 

Davidoff says about 20 teams have expressed interest in Sabathia, including the Yankees and Mets. The Red Sox, Cubs, and Dodgers have also been linked. According to Davidoff, Mark Shapiro will eventually narrow his list to four or five teams and then get serious. The Dodgers are one club that has both the need and the goods to make a deal.

[BSN07]

Possible Destinations For Sabathia

Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer weighs in on the different teams that could land CC Sabathia.

 

Yankees: Despite Ken Davidoff's report yesterday that the Yankees would not land Sabathia, Hoynes notes that the Yankees are desperate for an ace but acknowledges that they may wait until the off-season.

Phillies: Hoynes points out that Sabathia's first big league manager was Charlie Manuel, but the Phillies may not have enough in the system.

Cubs: Hoynes feels that Lou PIniella would trade for Sabathia right now if he could.

Red Sox: Hoynes feels the Sox are more likely to wait until the off-season.

Rays: Hoynes notes that the Rays have the pieces in the farm system to land Sabathia, but wonders if they are willing to rent a player for a playoff push.

Angels: Hoynes points out that Sabathia is from the west coast and the Angels may have a better chance of resigning him.

[BoSox21]

if Zambrano's shoulder issues are serious, I could see the Cubs making a big time run at Sabathia

[BSN07]

if Zambrano's shoulder issues are serious' date=' I could see the Cubs making a big time run at Sabathia[/quote']

 

I don't know if they would have enough to get him, maybe a 3 team deal.

[ksushi]

A three team deal doesn't necessarily help a team with little to give net a big star. It helps a team with a lot to give deal with a team that has needs in areas other than the areas of strength of the team attempting to acquire the star. Example: The andy marte trade was a delayed three team deal. The sox knew the Guardians coveted Marte. They sent Renteria to the Braves for him and then spun him to the Tribe to get Coco. We need an outfielder, they needed a 3B prospect, we had none, so we found a team that did. It didn't happen all at once, but thats basically the principle behind a three team deal.

 

Teams aren't going to find some lowly team out of the race willing to help a contender become a power-house by giving up their talent. That isn't the way it works, but in some instances teams find ways to work deals where there isn't a lot of common ground between two teams, and a third can come in and make the pieces fit.

[rgmfick]

I imagine the Red Sox will want to get a look at Masterson as a reliever and also bring up Bard to see how he might fit in. Probably the Red Sox will want to to both before the July 31 trading deadline so they can evaluate how this works out, before deciding on making any trades.

[CrespoBlows]

Bard was promoted to AA about three weeks ago. It's a pretty safe bet he's not going to be promoted to the Red Sox in July.

[Jayhawk Bill]

I think you stick with MDC and Hansen this year. I feel they will be able to do something as the year progresses......Hopefully.

 

The batting lines allowed for these two pitchers since you posted (May 26-June 28):

 

Craig Hansen (13 games): .204/.316/.204

 

Manny Delcarmen (12 games): .111/.163/.133

 

Good call, dowling25. :thumbsup:

[BoSox21]

I really gotta think Okie is the only major concern at this point

[a700hitter]

I really gotta think Okie is the only major concern at this point

I don't think Okajima is a major concern. He's not lights out like last year, but he will still be a very valuable contributor to the bullpen. The challenge for Tito an his coaches is to find the role where he helps the team the most. Right now it does not look like that role will be as the 8th inning guy in pressure games.

[YAZMAN]

I'm beginning to think MDC is looking more and more like our 8th inning guy. And I'm one who not too long ago thought he was a bit suspect. Giving credit where it's due, he's been impressing me more often than not lately.

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

Hideki Okajima's success hinges on his splitter. From what I've seen that pitch hasn't been there like it was last season. If he can get that back then he can return to form.

[jacksonianmarch]

more BB/9IP and a much higher OPS against leads to a poorer showing. His WHIP of 1.37 is .39 points higher than last yr, or equivalent to 2 more baserunners every 5 innings.

 

But you need to look deeper than the numbers. His April and May were ridiculous. Like, crazy ridiculous. 24IP 17H 5BB 20K. Sounds almost like his last season production

 

In June, 8IP 16H 5BB 12K. That is good for a WHIP>2.6. What happened? Is he having a dead arm spell like he did at the end of last yr? Is he hurt? Is his stuff flattening out? I dunno. The current Okajima is terrible. The Okajima of the past 2 months was ridiculous. It will be intriguing to see how he does the rest of the way.

[ksushi]

The solution to our pen is either Clay Buchholz or Bartolo Colon.

 

We need one of those guys to right themselves and come up to the majors and right the ship. The problem with Colon is health related, and given his recent history, I don't know how good I feel depending on him to hold down a spot in our rotation.

 

I know Clay has been at AAA working on fastball command, which is something I figured he would spend some time working on in the minors at some point before the second half. If you're the FO, you have to be rooting for Buchholz to out pitch Colon by a wide margin. The better/healthier pitcher will take the job and the Red Sox benefit most if that guy is Buchholz. The more he can contribute this year, the more certain his future in the rotation, the shorter the Red Sox offseason to-do list.

 

It's clear he can effectively locate his offspeed, but he was essentially a junkballer before he got sent down because he was air mailing his fastball. He basically already has what he needs, and he has harnessed the fastball for stretches of time in the past but he needs to be aware of tendencies he falls into with his delivery that negate fastball command. When he throws the change, he collapses his back leg to slow his drive to the plate but it carries over into his delivery for the fastball and makes it tough to be consistent with both pitches. If I know that, they know that. Repeating a consistent delivery is the only obstacle in his way to becoming a very solid major league contributor.

 

With Colon it is going to be about staying on the field.

 

One way or the other, we need one of them. If one of them can Mastersons rotation slot, we can slide him into the bullpen and cut ties with Timlin (please, please, please) or jussend Smith back to pawtucket. I don't see us acquiring a reliever, so we need to get inventive, because we are a month removed from the trade deadline and we don't have anybody who looks like they want to step up and take a job. I thought last night was a picture perfect oppurtunity for someone to rise up and snatch a permanent set-up job but... it obviously didn't turn out that way. Last night was all the evidence I need to label our bullpen suspect. I had very high hopes for the pen this year, but my patience is gone. No more. We need Buchholz to take a rotation spot. He fell on some incredibly hard luck, struggled with his fastball command, and still managed to look absolutely filthy at times. When he comes up again, its to stay, and man do we need him right now. I think Masterson could be special out of the pen, and I think him and Buchholz together could give our staff the spark it needs right now.

 

Imagine being Josh Beckett right now? You do a good job neutralizing Houstons only strength, shutting down the offense for seven strong and your bullpen can't even give you one inning. Not one. Pathetic. After these past two games, I think we have to do something. You don't want your starters putting pressure on themselves because the pen can't hold anything. That could be the downfall of the staff. Make a move, right the f***ing ship and that way we don't all have to gripe about how bad Varitek and Oki are and we can get back to winning despite them.