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Posted
I think if one were to plot $/WS you'd find the graph to take on an exponential shape toward the high end' date=' meaning the value is not strictly linear. Those in the top 5-10% are worth more than their value on the line of best fit. Just my opinion.[/quote']

 

And that of Baseball Prospectus.

 

BP offers a stat called MORP, which calculates the approximate value of a player on the free agent market based upon their projected WARP. They haven't updated it from 2007, so the formula is:

 

MORP = $1,200,000*(WARP^1.5) + $380,000

 

BP projects Julio Lugo to be worth 4.1 WARP in 2008. Jeter, although expected to be a couple of runs worse on defense, is expected to be worth 6.0 WARP. Given the exponential function, that makes Jeter much more valuable:

 

Lugo: $10,362,837

Jeter: $17,871,809

 

Of course, Jeter is paid $20 million per year, and Lugo is paid $9 million per year, so Lugo might be expected to be worth about a million bucks more than his salary, while Jeter might be expected to be worth a couple million bucks less than his. :dunno:

 

In 2007, Jeter was both better and more cost-effective than Lugo. In 2008, we'll see how it goes, but BP PECOTA suggests that Jeter is the better player while Lugo is the better bargain.

 

Edit: The new PECOTA cards are out this morning, with the 2008 MORP included (the 2008 formula isn't yet published, even though it's used, so I can't tell you how it changed.) Julio Lugo's MORP is $8,075,000; Derek Jeter's is $14,675,000. Lugo is overpaid by about a million by that reckoning, while Jeter is overpaid by roughly five million.

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Posted

And I know it must seem terribly that I'm a Yankee fan-boy on Jeter's dick, and I know that's how a lot of you see it...but c'mon..you guys are Sox fans ripping on Jeter, I have a right, almost a responsibility to to argue in his defense.

 

lol

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