Astros acquire D-Backs Jose Valverde, D-Backs acquire A's Dan Haren

[riverside sluggers]

The Diamondbacks will send closer Jose Valverde to the Astros in exchange for infielder Chris Burke and reliever Chad Qualls, according to MLB.com.

 

That explains the decision to dump Alberto Callaspo. It's shocking that the Diamondbacks would give up Valverde for this little return. 2007 was probably the closer's career year and he was about to get a lot more expensive, but the they're taking quite a downgrade in going to Qualls and Burke is no sure thing as the second baseman of the future. Tony Pena becomes the favorite for saves in Arizona, with Brandon Lyon and Qualls acting as setup men.

 

RHP Juan Gutierrez was traded from the Astros to the Diamondbacks in a four-player deal.

 

Well, that definitely evens things up a bit. Gutierrez, whose name wasn't included in the initial report of the deal, was right there with Felipe Paulino as one of the top two pitching prospects left in the Houston system. Of the two, he's the better bet to last as a starting pitcher. The 24-year-old could use at least another three months in Triple-A, but he has a chance to be a solid No. 3 or No. 4 for the Diamondbacks in time.

 

The Diamondbacks have reportedly picked up Dan Haren from the A's for OF Carlos Gonzalez, LHP Brett Anderson, OF Aaron Cunningham, 1B Chris Carter, LHP Greg Smith and LHP Dana Eveland.

 

That's five of Arizona's top 10 prospects, plus Eveland, who no longer qualified. The A's are really going for quantity over quality here, which is pretty surprising. Gonzalez has star potential, but plate discipline is a big issue. Anderson is clearly the best bet of the pitchers. Smith and Eveland are more bottom-of-the-rotation guys, but Anderson could be a No. 2 in time. Now that Haren is gone, the A's might as well trade Joe Blanton, too.

[BoSox21]

the price for Johan Santana just went up me thinks

[riverside sluggers]

The Diamondbacks farm system has been depleted to say the least

[26 to 6]

But despite losing their closer, the team that they put on the field this comng season has a very good chance at repeating as NL West Champs.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Arizona has traded away first baseman Chris Carter two times in four months.

[Cocos Disciples]

Yeah, what the f*** is with that? Is it another guy?

[riverside sluggers]

Chris Carter, a 20 year old 1st baseman with the same name, is who they acquired in the earlier Carlos Quentin deal to the White Sox

[jacksonianmarch]

the price for Santana just went WAY up. Haren, who is coming off 3 solid seasons, but really only one defining yr, just netted this...

 

Gonzalez is a true 5 tool talent who hits for average, power (58HR in his first 3 seasons of long season), is the same age as Jacoby and can steal bases. This guy is quite a catch in and of itself. ETA- NOW

 

Anderson is a 19 yr old lefty who dominated long season this yr, then held his own in A+ ball as a 19 yr old. He throws pretty hard and strikes a lot of guys out. ETA- 2009

 

Cunningham is like a Gonzalez-lite. He has power and speed (16HR and 29SB last yr) but more patience. ETA- 2009

 

Carter is a 20 yr old 1b who smacked 25HR in his first full season of long season with a .900+OPS. Big framed power prospect whose ETA is most likely 2010

 

Smith is a lefty who profiles as more of a back end kind of guy

 

Eveland is still a young guy who also profiles as a back end of the rotation type starter.

 

So essentially, the A's got two guys they can add to their rotation now in Smith and Eveland and even though both have limited projections, could help out with the big park. If one of them plays well, then the inclusion is worth it as a throw in.

 

The get their blue chipper in Gonzalez.

 

They get a big basher in Carter.

 

They get another intriguing OFer in Cunningham.

 

And they get a young, lefty who is dominating the long season levels at a very young age.

 

This type of package would wipe any team's farm stock, and the fact that one of the better farms did this and are now essentially wiped out is alarming.

 

5 star OFer- Ellsbury

4 star SP- Lester

4 star OFer- Lowrie (in terms of stars, not position)

4 star 1b- Anderson

1 young MLB lefty- Lets say Masterson is the equivalent here

3 star LHP- Kris Johnson

 

Ellsbury, Lester, Lowrie, Anderson, Masterson and Johnson. Would you deal that for Santana?

[jacksonianmarch]

And on our end...

 

Jackson

Kennedy

Tabata

Miranda

Horne

Marquez

 

thats a whole lot

[26 to 6]

And on our end...

 

Jackson

Kennedy

Tabata

Miranda

Horne

Marquez

 

thats a whole lot

Yeah it is. Do you think without either Hughes or Melky Minny would even pick up the phone?

[Jayhawk Bill]

Chris Carter' date=' a 20 year old 1st baseman with the same name, is who they acquired in the earlier Carlos Quentin deal to the White Sox[/quote']

 

Thus the winking emoticon in my first post.

 

It's still kinda cool, IMO...

 

***

 

A couple of points regarding the Haren trade:

 

1) Haren is cost-controlled and obligated for three more years. He's due $9.5 million through 2009, with a club option of $6.75 million in 2010. The buyout for 2010 is only $250,000; the maximum he can make through incentives is another $1.75 million. Santana is due $13.25 million in 2008, and he's a free agent thereafter.

 

2) I don't think that the prospects that Arizona sent to Oakland are necessarily quite as good as the names tossed around from the Red Sox and Yankees in the Santana discussions. As an example, Carlos Gonzalez hit .282/.327/.461 in AA Mobile this year before doing well in a small cup of coffee in AAA. Mobile is a hitter's park, inflating the SLG. Contrast that to the Yankees' Melky Cabrera, who hit .280/.360/.391 in a pitcher's park in MLB (in the AL East, in fact) that same age. If the two batting lines were in the same park and the same league, they'd be equivalent, but Gonzalez would have probably been challenged to hit much better than .225/.260/.370 in Yankee Stadium given his AA stats this year. That doesn't make him anything near worthless. It just makes him less valuable than Melky Cabrera, or Jacoby Ellsbury, IMVHO.

 

I don't think that the value of Johan Santana has changed. I think that Arizona paid a lot for three cost-controlled years from an ace starting pitcher. There's roughly a fifty-fifty chance that three years or less will be all that Haren has left before injury affects his play. Those trading for Santana get either one rather expensive year or seven-odd very expensive years for their package of talent. Santana's value is different than Haren's--it's not just talent and accomplishments, it's obligated years and salary obligations as well.

[TheKilo]

 

I don't think that the value of Johan Santana has changed. I think that Arizona paid a lot for three cost-controlled years from an ace starting pitcher. There's roughly a fifty-fifty chance that three years or less will be all that Haren has left before injury affects his play. Those trading for Santana get either one rather expensive year or seven-odd very expensive years for their package of talent. Santana's value is different than Haren's--it's not just talent and accomplishments, it's obligated years and salary obligations as well.

 

I completely agree. The price for Santana does not go up as a result of this deal, because there aren't as many bidders for Santana. It's simple supply and demand. The demand for starting pitching is very high right now, but in short supply. Simple economics tells us that the price will then be very high. Only a few teams can afford the high price. The Sox and Yankees compete for Santana, not anyone else. They don't compete against anyone else, so they just offer packages to try to beat each other.

 

But what if the price was decreased a bit? (Say, from the price of Santana to Haren) - then the number of potential bidders goes up. There are now more potential bidders for the pitcher, the more competition there is, and the higher the package has to be to win.

[BoSox34]

90 wins with a young squad last season and now a 1-2 punch of Webb-Haren.

 

The D-Backs are the team to watch in the National League.

[TheKilo]

90 wins with a young squad last season and now a 1-2 punch of Webb-Haren.

 

The D-Backs are the team to watch in the National League.

 

No. Their lineup sucks.

[BoSox34]

No. Their lineup sucks.

 

They got it done this season and they were a yound inexperienced team. I'd like to see what they can do in next year, although I agree they should look into acquiring a bat for the middle of the lineup.

[TheKilo]

They got it done this season and they were a yound inexperienced team. I'd like to see what they can do in next year' date=' although I agree they should look into acquiring a bat for the middle of the lineup.[/quote']

 

They outperformed their pythag by 11 games. I'd pick the Rockies before them.

[Jayhawk Bill]

If one takes the estimated runs and runs allowed based upon the estimated run value of each event (walks, hits, errors, putouts, etc.), and if one figures wins from that based on Pythag, here are the 2007 NL West final standings:

 

[table]Team | Runs | Runs Allowed | Wins | Losses

Rockies | 856 | 767 | 90 | 73

Dodgers | 752 | 692 | 87 | 75

Padres | 710 | 682 | 85 | 78

Giants | 688 | 715 | 78 | 84

Diamondbacks | 708 | 739 | 78 | 84[/table]

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/standings.php

 

For contrast, the Red Sox would have scored 906 runs and allowed 677 runs by this method. The D-Back's pitching is certainly good. Their offense is roughly three MVP-caliber hitters short of Boston's, further short of the Yankees', and better than maybe a mere half-dozen cellar-dwelling-type teams in all of MLB.

 

The Diamondbacks had the NL Manager of the Year and a huge slug of luck to reach the NLDS. Barring that sort of luck again next year, don't expect to see them in October baseball.

[DUSTINMOHR4LIFE]

Right now, barring any more signifigant moves by the Dodgers and/or the Rockies, the Dbacks are my pick in the West for one main reason: Their lineup will almost definetley improve. There is going to be some regression with Byrnes, but I would expect that Young, Upton and Stephen Drew will all improve. If you add rebounds from those three to a solid core of Hudson, Jackson, Byrnes and Reynolds, the offense looks solid, or at the very least, a whole lot better than last year. Plus, the pitching staff almost certainly will be better with the addition of Haren, thus making them, in my opinion, the team to beat in the West because of the improved offense.

[Cocos Disciples]

Don't count out the Dodgers though. On paper, their team is lethal. Russ Martin, James Loney, Jeff Kent, Rafael Furcal, Nomar Garciaparra, Juan Pierre, Andruw Jones and Matt Kemp, with Andre Ethier as a more than viable option off the bench. Thats a VERY solid lineup, especially in the NL.

 

If their rotation can stay reasonably healthy they're my NL West team. Penny and Lowe both had very good years in 07. Billingsley was effective in the 147 innings he threw.

 

Assuming Penny and Lowe have slight regressions, which is reasonable, and Billingsley takes strides forward, which I also foresee, then the rotation relies on the success and health of Jason Schmidt and Hiroki Kuroda. Schmidt was on the decline even before his injuries, but if he is healthy enough to throw somewhere around 150 innings, I expect his ERA to float around 4, with a respectable K/BB ratio.

 

Hiroki Kuroda is a wild card. From 2005-2007 he has had ERAs of 3.17, 1.86 and 3.56 in Japan. He is not a strikeout pitcher. His HR allowed, ERA, BB, and BA against all got significantly worse in 2007, along with less strikeouts. I know that Japanese numbers do not translate directly to MLB, as they normally get worse. I don't see a bright future for Kuroda, but I didn't see Okajima doing what he did. You never know with Japanese players coming overseas.