Clay Buchholz

[TheKilo]

I see a lot of talk about how people expect Buchholz to be in the starting rotation at the start of next season. My question is, how many innings do you people expect Buchholz to throw next season? If he sees his innings increase 20% from his 2007 totals, he'll barely eclipse the 175 inning mark.

 

Maybe it's just me, but with the options available to the Red Sox right now, I'd prefer to see them start the year with Buchholz in AAA and work him into the rotation mid-season. Save those innings for when we really need them.

[a700hitter]

I see a lot of talk about how people expect Buchholz to be in the starting rotation at the start of next season. My question is, how many innings do you people expect Buchholz to throw next season? If he sees his innings increase 20% from his 2007 totals, he'll barely eclipse the 175 inning mark.

 

Maybe it's just me, but with the options available to the Red Sox right now, I'd prefer to see them start the year with Buchholz in AAA and work him into the rotation mid-season. Save those innings for when we really need them.

IMO he throws no more than 150 innings if he is on the ML Roster for the entire year.

[ORS]

Aren't innings just a function of the pitch count? To me, the inning total is immaterial. I figure you want X number of starts with a progressive Y number of pitches allowed per start. At the start of the year, his Y will be lower than the other 5 (except maybe for Lester), so I think it makes sense to start him in AAA until he works into a pitch count where he can go deep into games. Like I mentioned, Lester will need monitoring too, so I think who comes up north with the big club should be who wins out in ST.

[jacksonianmarch]

I think the rest period in between is just as important. If you consider that you are doing an exercise, resting, exercise, resting, etc, that takes a big toll. I think both are equally important.

[ORS]

The period of rest is considered with the determination of the magnitude of X number of starts made.

[TheKilo]

Aren't innings just a function of the pitch count? To me' date=' the inning total is immaterial. I figure you want X number of starts with a progressive Y number of pitches allowed per start. At the start of the year, his Y will be lower than the other 5 (except maybe for Lester), so I think it makes sense to start him in AAA until he works into a pitch count where he can go deep into games. Like I mentioned, Lester will need monitoring too, so I think who comes up north with the big club should be who wins out in ST.[/quote']

 

This is a good point. Basically, I think it's foolish to expect outstanding results from Buchholz right out of the gate and throughout the entire season. If there is truly a limit on how miuch he'll throw, it seems foolish to me to have that limit met mid-August.

[BSN07]

The Kilo, THANK YOU!!!!!!!!!!

 

I've been saying the same thing, but some just won't listen...

 

He's only 23 and has to build up his body to cope with the long ML season...

 

If the team wasn't concerned about this kids arm, he would have been on the Post season roster. Keeping him off the roster shows that the FO is more concerned with him long term.

[BoSox21]

Introducing him to the bigs the way they did Papelbon (August callup in '05) or bringing him up as a spot starter from time to time is probably the way to go with him next season

[MANNYHOF24]

I agree, with five solid starters to start the season, there is no reason to push this guy at all. Let him get some solid limited innings at AAA and bring him up in June or July if needed. I envison them doing what they did with Lester in 06. That would make sense to me. But the point stands, baring injury the Sox Rotation will be Beckett, DiceK, Schilling, Wake, Lester on opening day.

 

Another possibilty would be going with a six man rotation, but I don't see how you can tell Beckett he can't get the ball every five days. To be honest would we want that?

[Jayhawk Bill]

IMO he throws no more than 150 innings if he is on the ML Roster for the entire year.

 

I was going to say 150 innings pitched, but if you've claimed 150 IP I'll get aggressive and predict 151 IP.

 

Predicting a 20% increase is normal overall, but I regard it as too aggressive for Clay Buchholz given his age and build.

 

Introducing him to the bigs the way they did Papelbon (August callup in '05) or bringing him up as a spot starter from time to time is probably the way to go with him next season.

 

But here I disagree.

 

Those 150 IP are going to be really, really good innings. Let's not waste them--let's have Buchholz on a strict 100-pitch limit and start him as the fifth starter, missing turns now and then to keep the others on their proper days.

[Ray10]

I think they are thinking about him long term so they don't want to wear him down early which is a smart move. I mean this kid is the future of the Red Sox rotation.

[Jayhawk Bill]

I think they are thinking about him long term so they don't want to wear him down early which is a smart move. I mean this kid is the future of the Red Sox rotation.

 

Why does forcing him to pitch in AAA instead of MLB for the exact same number of innings protect him from wearing down early?

 

Clay Buchholz is probably better than whomever else might be Boston's fifth starter, and both Kyle Snyder and Julian Tavarez are around for long relief if Buchholz can only go five innings. Why not let our best five starting pitchers start in MLB?