Johan Santana or Dan Haren?

[TheKilo]

The Marlins are fielding offers for third baseman Miguel Cabrera. Sources indicate they've had discussions with the Red Sox, but Boston might be saving up its arsenal of young players for a run at Twins lefthander Johan Santana or Oakland righthander Dan Haren.

 

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2007/11/15/lowell_move_twofold/

 

 

I like this. Make a run at these guys instead of MC or ARod.

[BSN07]

I've said all along, if you can lock Santanna up long term then do it. But if theres no deal in place and he wants to hit the FA market then let someone else trade for him.

 

If I had to choose I would put it like this, if you going to get Santana its gonna cost Buccholz and Ellsbury+ most likely, Haren I don't think will be as expensive,

 

Santana(+contract extension)-Ellsbury-Buccholz

 

 

Thats how I see, So I take Haren as a better value. Santana is obviously the better pitcher tho. But to beable to keep Buccholz and Ellsbury is very important. I think having Buccholz and Ellsbury makes up the difference betweeen Santana and Haren pitching wise.

[HeadOfSoxNation]

I've said all along, if you can lock Santanna up long term then do it. But if theres no deal in place and he wants to hit the FA market then let someone else trade for him.

 

If I had to choose I would put it like this, if you going to get Santana its gonna cost Buccholz and Ellsbury+ most likely, Haren I don't think will be as expensive,

 

Santana(+contract extension)-Ellsbury-Buccholz

 

 

Thats how I see, So I take Haren as a better value. Santana is obviously the better pitcher tho. But to beable to keep Buccholz and Ellsbury is very important. I think having Buccholz and Ellsbury makes up the difference betweeen Santana and Haren pitching wise.

 

Oakland isn't going to give Haren away though, man...you really think we'd be able to get Haren without using Buchholz or Ellsbury? I doubt it. Haren is filthy and only 27...he's got 6 years of prime left. The A's aren't going to move that for .50 on the dollar.

[BSN07]

Maybe 1 of them, but I still think the Sox have enough talent to deal without dealing either.

[KeepTheFaith1229]

At least one of them for sure, I don't even think Beane would be interested unless it was both.

[BSN07]

Ellsbury is the starting CF here for the future. If coco is traded then it will show that this is the case. So any trades involving him I doubt get done.

 

Buccholz is the teams pride enjoy as far as pitchers go. I think the FO is prowd of how they groomed him and how hes turned out. I find it hard to believe they would trade him. For either of these two the deal has to be a huge blockbuster, I mean big... I don't see either one getting traded unless its for Santana and they have him inked to an extension...

[BSN07]

What does everyone think it will cst to get Sanatana? Lets seem some thinking here,

 

 

Coco,Buccholz,Masterson,Hansen/mid level prospect is my deal. And it only goes if we have Santana inked to a new deal. If its more then that I would be kind of reluctant, but whats everyone elses deal? Feel free to plug in other names or use more then 4 players going back the other way.

[KeepTheFaith1229]

Ellsbury is the starting CF here for the future. If coco is traded then it will show that this is the case. So any trades involving him I doubt get done.

 

Buccholz is the teams pride enjoy as far as pitchers go. I think the FO is prowd of how they groomed him and how hes turned out. I find it hard to believe they would trade him. For either of these two the deal has to be a huge blockbuster, I mean big... I don't see either one getting traded unless its for Santana and they have him inked to an extension...

 

Yeah, I didn't say the Sox would trade them, but why would Oakland trade one of the best pitchers in baseball who's only 27 years old and not even receive one of our top two prospects? C'mon.

[TheKilo]

Ellsbury is the starting CF here for the future. If coco is traded then it will show that this is the case. So any trades involving him I doubt get done.

 

Buccholz is the teams pride enjoy as far as pitchers go. I think the FO is prowd of how they groomed him and how hes turned out. I find it hard to believe they would trade him. For either of these two the deal has to be a huge blockbuster, I mean big... I don't see either one getting traded unless its for Santana and they have him inked to an extension...

 

If Ellsbury is dealt for a Santana or Haren, Crisp won't go anywhere.

[rician blast]

Ellsbury is the starting CF here for the future. If coco is traded then it will show that this is the case. So any trades involving him I doubt get done.

 

Buccholz is the teams pride enjoy as far as pitchers go. I think the FO is prowd of how they groomed him and how hes turned out. I find it hard to believe they would trade him. For either of these two the deal has to be a huge blockbuster, I mean big... I don't see either one getting traded unless its for Santana and they have him inked to an extension...

 

Regardless of Ellsbury being, as you put it, the "pride enjoy" and the FO being "prowd" of Buch, no one...I mean no one...is untouchable.

[riverside sluggers]

Now see Buchholz in a deal for Cabrera I wouldnt do, but... Buchholz in a package that would bring us Cy Young Joahn Santana, well sign me up for that. A front 3 of Santana, Beckett, Dice K would be nasty

[Jayhawk Bill]

Regardless of Ellsbury being' date=' as you put it, the "pride enjoy" and the FO being "prowd" of Buch, no one...I mean no one...is untouchable.[/quote']

 

As much as I'm against trading away young talent, I've got to concur that the trade value of Buchholz and Ellsbury is sky-high right now with their favorable 2007 stats, including highly favorable small sample size MLB stats. IF one wished to trade such talent, this would be a great moment to trade either one.

[Rdsxmbnt]

I'd like either, but I wouldn't trade Buchholz for Haren. Haren is more of a 3.75-4.00 ERA guy than low 3's. He had quite a bit of BABIP 'luck' in the first half and was a 4.00+ ERA pitcher when that went the other way. Definetly not bad too have at all, but I wouldn't surrender the type of talent you would give to get a top 5 pitcher in baseball like Santana which I'm worried may be the price given the season he just had.

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

As a thought...

 

Dan Haren had a lower ERA than Johan Santana and the same amount of wins with fewer losses in 2007. The teams (Oakland and Minnesota) were about equal.

[Jayhawk Bill]

As a thought...

 

Dan Haren had a lower ERA than Johan Santana and the same amount of wins with fewer losses in 2007. The teams (Oakland and Minnesota) were about equal.

 

As another thought...

 

Baseball Reference most-similar pitchers to both Haren and Santana through their current ages. The number in parentheses is the similarity score: 1000 is perfect.

 

Dan Haren, through age 26:

 

Oil Can Boyd (982)

Brad Penny (979)

Jim Lonborg (977)

Joel Pineiro (968)

Ben McDonald (967)

Vicente Padilla (964)

Don Robinson (963)

Kevin Millwood (963)

John Lackey (963)

Rick Reuschel (963)

 

Not a bad group. Four out of ten declined badly (Boyd, Pineiro, McDonald and Padilla). Three of the ten (Penny, Lackey and Reuschel) were considered to have gotten better. Lonborg, reputed to have declined, actually played rather well for another decade, although he never regained his 1967 form.

 

Johan Santana, through age 28:

 

Tim Hudson (949)

Roy Oswalt (940)

John Candelaria (935)

Juan Pizarro (931)

Bob Welch (929)

Mike Mussina (928)

Kevin Appier (927)

Jack McDowell (921)

Kevin Millwood (915)

Sid Fernandez (915)

 

McDowell and Fernandez blew out their arms in the next few seasons; Hudson and Oswalt are still young. The interesting four are Candelaria, Pizarro, Welch and Mussina. They all had another solid decade ahead of them.

 

Santana's comparable pitchers are objectively a better lot. I'm surprised, though, that there are no HOF pitchers and only one late-career contender (Mussina) on both lists combined.

[cam780]

I personally don't think the Sox are going to trade anyone other than Coco this offseason and I think that has alot to do with Dice-K and his potential. If Dice-K develops like Beckett, than their rotation is considerably more formidable and Santana may win you 20 games this year but Buchholz/Lester are probably going to win you 20-30 and the Twins are asking for position players if you also take into consideration the fact that the type of package that the Twins are asking for (rightfully) is not a Josh Beckett package with one player that is the centerpiece they're asking for two or three major league ready players who are key contributors - so whatever benefit you gain by giving the ball to Santana every fifth day will be offset by the decreased production in the lineup the other 4 or 5 games a week so its a lot harder to pull the trigger but that being said I think you're looking at Ellsbury / Lester / +1 for Santana which I would probably do because Santana-Beckett-Dice-K-Buccholz would be impossible and Ryan Kalish is in the pipeline and projects similarly to Ellsbury. I think Haren could be had for Lester / Crisp / Lowrie / Masterson which I also make. But I think the Sox are going to play it safe and hit the market next year if need be.

[jacksonianmarch]

Assuming a pitcher develops like Beckett is not a sure thing. Remember this, Beckett was a dominant ace type pitcher in the NL and came over here showing a total regression in stuff. DiceK did not. His stuff was solid, his location and durability was not. I expect him to be more durable as the yrs go on (or his arm to implode from all the strain put on it) but the lack of pinpoint command has made the Japanese market a bit less of a desirable proposition. I think the zones are a little bigger over there. Regardless, DiceK has front line stuff and it remains to be seen if he can continue it for 32 starts or if he will be as inconsistent as he was last yr.

[BSN07]

With all the stories out there about how much $+ prospects its gonna cost for Santana, I think it might be better to go after Haren. With all the focus on Santana, maybe the Sox could sneak around everyone and pick up Haren at a better value $/prospect wise.

 

I've already stated that i think Haren will cost less to extend and cost less prospects the Santana would.

[BSN07]

Not sure what Oakland will be looking for, maybe...

 

Bowden

Hansen

Crisp(doubt they need him but maybe the Sox ove Crisp and someone they get in return they can put in the deal)

Bard

Lowrie

Moss

Anderson

 

some combo of prospects.

[TheKilo]

With all the stories out there about how much $+ prospects its gonna cost for Santana, I think it might be better to go after Haren. With all the focus on Santana, maybe the Sox could sneak around everyone and pick up Haren at a better value $/prospect wise.

 

I've already stated that i think Haren will cost less to extend and cost less prospects the Santana would.

 

Which means more teams would be bidding for his services if he is in fact on the market.

[BSN07]

Which means more teams would be bidding for his services if he is in fact on the market.

 

Good point, but if everyone is focused on Santana the Sox might be able to swoop in and nab him.

[BSN07]

This is part of Olneys insider page. I haven't read it all but he seems to be thinkiing what I was thinking.

 

 

Say you are looking for a frontline starting pitcher. An ace. Somebody capable of helping to lead your team into the playoffs.

 

You could back up your organization's truck and offer two Grade A prospects and a couple of Grade B prospects and call the Minnesota Twins about Johan Santana. And if you arrange a conditional deal with the Twins, you would have the opportunity to try to convince Santana to waive his no-trade clause. That could cost you merely the largest salary for any pitcher in the history of baseball: six years, $150 million, on top of the $13.25 million he is owed for next season.

 

Or you could back up the organization's truck and offer three or four prospects for Oakland's Dan Haren. No strings attached, no no-trade clause. And here's the really good news: You would have to pay Haren just $4 million for 2008, $5.5 million for 2009, and he has a $6.75 million option for 2010.

[TheKilo]

Good point' date=' but if everyone is focused on Santana the Sox might be able to swoop in and nab him.[/quote']

 

Read my post. Not every team can afford Santana and the $20 million+ per he'll command. Many more teams can afford Haren.

 

Therefore, Haren should be just as tough, if not tougher, to get.

[BSN07]

You would think that is true. the only thing is theres nothing out there news wise about Haren really. All the stories have everyone eyeing Santana or Cabrera. The Sox should forget Santana and go after Haren before the other two get dealt and Haren becomes the focus of multiple organizations...

[TheKilo]

You would think that is true. the only thing is theres nothing out there news wise about Haren really. All the stories have everyone eyeing Santana or Cabrera. The Sox should forget Santana and go after Haren before the other two get dealt and Haren becomes the focus of multiple organizations...

 

What? You think the front offices of major league baseball teams aren't inquiring about this guy just because it's not in the press?

 

And you just linked to an Olney piece! Without Santana or Cabrera signing yet!

[See Red]

Haren had a 4.15 ERA after the all-star break last year. I don't think he's as good as his last year numbers indicate because even during the first half, his FIP wasn't anywhere near his ERA and his BABIP was ridiculously low... and predictably, his ERA started to tail more towards his high FIP as his BABIP went up.

 

But he is only 27 and locked up on the cheap until 2009, ain't he?

[MANNYHOF24]

Bipidy Bopidy give me the Zopidy

[TheKilo]

Proving my point, the Tigers are interested in Haren

 

The sense coming into the meetings was that Billy Beane would hold Haren and Blanton for the Santana losers – be they the Red Sox, Mets, Yankees, etc. – but Beane appeared to be getting plenty of play on them on day one. The Tigers were believed to be willing to part with Andrew Miller as part of a package for Haren, and the Diamondbacks were believed to be in on both A's pitchers. The Mets need to add at least one top-end starter (and probably have enough in prospects to land just one) and appear to be focused more on Bedard, though that could change in a phone call.

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ti-winterdayone120307&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

[Mr Crunchy]

every legit contender should be interested in haren,especially the mid market teams like detroit and the chisox types

the fact is harens salary makes him more appealing than santana to 90% of baseball which makes getting him difficult as well.

i think the sox are getting santana

the steinberg brothers may have kept arod but only after arod realized he wasnt getting anything close to his ridiculous demands

they got andy back,signed the aged posada and rivera but they havent really added anything new.

the brothers are putting a deadline out there for a 27yr old 2x cy winning lefty?

good

it has as much validity as the arod negotiations.

 

when your first act of business as owner is the arod fiasco when they appear completely full of s*** and you go against your word then respect is lost,not that hal and hank had a lot of that going in

in fact

they should be at the little boys table during the winter meetings with loria in miami and the pirates gm.

 

the yanks need santana much more than we do and if they dont move on him then the signings of rivera petite arod and posada appear foolish because theyre content on retooling and waiting a year or more

will anyone be better on the market than johan in the next few seasons?

doubtful

these 28 year old phenoms are rare

lefty phenoms rarer