Would you bring Manny back in 2009?

[ORS]

My post immediately preceding yours estimates the effect of Park Factor.

 

Does it matter? Sure--but it matters less for slower outfielders such as Manny who can't cover that much ground anyway, it matters less if one knows Fenway Park, and it doesn't matter enough in any case to make up more than half of the difference between Manny and Pat Burrell, the next-to-last defensive LF in MLB.

Let's be clear here, Burrell is the next to last "qualified" LF. Plenty of Millar, Hinske, Johnny Gomes types play a good amount of games in LF without becoming "qualified".

 

I think you play to your park. Fenway allows a slugging slug in LF like no park in the game, and they have the spot filled with the best slugger of them and the most sluggish. All is well.

[example1]

My post immediately preceding yours estimates the effect of Park Factor.

 

Does it matter? Sure--but it matters less for slower outfielders such as Manny who can't cover that much ground anyway, it matters less if one knows Fenway Park, and it doesn't matter enough in any case to make up more than half of the difference between Manny and Pat Burrell, the next-to-last defensive LF in MLB.

 

I agree that Manny isn't a great fielder. However, having watched nearly every game the Sox played for the past 5 years or so (I need to get a life) I just can't think of that many times where Manny "just missed" a ball.

 

Of course, "just missing" a ball would likely be a product of someone who was SLIGHTLY below in ZR, whereas Manny's numbers indicate he usually doesn't realize that the bat has collided with the ball until it has landed in the OF ( ), which would certainly decrease the number of "near misses" he had. I just proved myself wrong!

 

I think the ZR and most defensive metrics are still missing the point. Manny makes some good plays, makes most routine ones, and apparently doesn't get to a lot of balls that even average LFs would make it to. Apparently, my baseball glasses have been tainted by watching Manny for most of this century and I can't recognize a "should be out" when I see one anymore. Oh Mike Greenwell, where have you gone??

 

JB and ORS (and others as well), do you guys feel like we have an adequate grasp on fielding statistics yet? As Bill James--and many others have pointed out, defense is almost impossible to measure effectively, and errors are one of the worst ways of doing it. I like the idea of Zone Ratings, but without an accurate way of measuring HOW the balls that went into a fielders zone were hit, it is hard to judge the difference between a LF making a sliding catch on a 106mph line drive vs a pop fly. I know this is adjusted for by the sheer size of the data pool, particular park adjustments, etc., but it still seems to me that batting evaluation is well ahead of fielding valuation.

 

Overall, I love the quest for finding accurate statistical models for fielding, I just don't think it has been achieved yet. Manny is obviously well-below average in LF, but it feels like (here are those gut feelings and sentiment creeping in again) that hasn't hurt this team as much as one would think over the past few years. His bat makes up for it, but I think his reputation as a bad fielder actually cushions his REAL performance, which is somewhere in the "mediocre to lackluster" category, probably at least a full standard deviation away from the average LF fielders.

[ksushi]

The chances of him re-upping are slim, yes. The chances of him being traded are much, much higher.

 

This is what the Marlins do. Stockpile good young talent, ship out before they get too expensive. Unless you want to see Ellsbury, Lester, and Buchholz gone, I don't see how Cabrera becomes a Red Sox.

 

 

I'm kind of assuming that the Marlins want to hang on to him and don't trade him. I don't know if a trade is likely, but it could happen. Obviously if he gets traded to another team the chances of him hitting the market are dramtically slimmer than they are now.

 

 

Completely ignoring the fact that Crawford hits left-handed for one second, how confident do you think the Rays are that Baldelli will be back? Dude is made of glass.

 

Besides, the Rays are on the cusp of being a very competitive team (1-2 years away). I doubt they let their best player walk via FA.

 

I think they probably would let him go. They'd still have a good young core of outfielders and could use some of that money they would be spending on crawford to put towards the pitcher they really need to become competitive. They are on the cusp of being relevant in the east, keeping crawford won't get them any closer to that but letting him go won't really push them too far off of that goal either if they re-locate the money accordingly.

 

Baldelli being healthy will be a factor. He has had some freak injuries, I don't know if I'd be ready to totally give up on him yet. Obviously they aren't either as they just extended him for a little while.

 

 

 

I do think that if the Sox make a play for ARod, then it makes Manny expendable either this offseason or the next. You want to spend $20 mil on Manny in $30 mil on ARod in '09?

 

If the team gets ARod, Manny is gone, IMO.

 

 

 

Upwards of $45 million tied to two players. And you're the one who complains about the $9 million Lugo makes?

 

No, I don't want to spend 30 million on Arod. Neither does the FO. They've publically balked at A-rods current price tag, as have a number of organizations. I sign A-rod for 20 Mil. I would take on 40 million for those two to be in the same line up as long as Manny is healthy this upcoming season. That kind of offensive force would be worth the money. And no, I never complained about the 9 million Lugo makes. I think that if he can make 9 million to play baseball, hell I probably could too, but I'm not one to complain about salaries in general. Mostly because I'm not paying them. I did complain about him not even being able to bat my weight in the first half.

 

I think when you're going to be spending the league minimum on your CF, 2B, 1B, 2 relievers including your all-star closer, and 2 starting pitchers you can afford to drop some serious cash on SS, and LF (and RF but thats a sore subject until drew slugs .500). Beckett is cheap, DiceK is cheap (annually). A lot of our payroll is probably on its way out, with clement, schill, hinske and coco on the way out. Thats probably around 30 million dollars worth of payroll coming off the books with not a lot of impact on our roster.

 

 

 

If you want Cabrera, you'll part with some of that pitching. And since more teams are signing their big name players to longer deals, tell me, who are the top hitters hitting the market anytime soon?

 

 

 

We were also scouting Lowell. How'd that work out?

 

 

 

If Manny is going to continue to be as bad as he is defensively, that line is not worth $20 million.

 

Right, I was just telling my friend the other day that because of revenue sharing, free agency likely won't have many big splash guys in it anymore. Thats why having a guy like Theo at the helm is going to be so crucial, because the draft is going to be so crucial in years to come.

 

That was a joke btw, I know our scouting is good. I actually liked the Coco acquisition and I like how Theo even knew how the Guardians coveted Andy Marte so they acquired him to spin him for Coco. They had a pretty low opinion of marte themselves, and look how that turned out? That might even be a wash but its still a little early to give up on marte I guess.

[ORS]

UZR and PMR are probably the best two systems because they account for batted ball types and how hard the ball was hit. Of course, neither are made public, so they do us little good. I know MGL shares UZR occaissionally, so you might run into a UZR spreadsheet somewhere out there, but I'm not fanatical about cutting edge stats enough to hunt them down.

 

I think RZR is useful, but I think it could use tweaking for park factors. FRAA is starting to have a really good correlation to UZR. The last few UZR spreadsheets I've seen were in strong agreement with FRAA (note: I did not check every player, this is just by my recollection).

 

I'd like to see range quantified by how far and how fast people are actually moving to make plays. We've got the technology to do it. A micro transmitter in the button on top of the cap, triangulating antenae, and an on/off button for the moment of contact to the moment of the ball hitting leather while the time is recorded. We'd get a clear picture of the limits of one's range based on their max distance plays in relation to the time elapsed. Someone with the means to get this done and more passion to approach MLB about it must be out there. Only a matter of time.

[Fried Neckbones]

I'm in with those who say that it's pretty up in the air until after the upcoming season. This FO does not like to re-sign question mark guys. Look at the Schill situation prior to this year. He is in the last year of a contract, says he wants another year or two with the Sox, and they don't talk to him. He was coming off of two sub-par years, so despite his 2004 WS heroics, they did not jump, make the sentimental decision, and re-up with him. Manny is coming off of a sub-par year. If he has another one, and continues with the nagging injuries (obliques, hammies, etc) there is a good chance he is gone. But the FO is going to wait until they can see how he performs. I think, for $20 mill, that's a pretty good way to go.

[Fried Neckbones]

I'd like to see range quantified by how far and how fast people are actually moving to make plays. We've got the technology to do it. A micro transmitter in the button on top of the cap' date=' triangulating antenae, and an on/off button for the moment of contact to the moment of the ball hitting leather while the time is recorded. We'd get a clear picture of the limits of one's range based on their max distance plays in relation to the time elapsed. Someone with the means to get this done and more passion to approach MLB about it must be out there. Only a matter of time.[/quote']

 

That would be pretty freaking cool, but I don't know how accuratly that would measure defensive ability. Too much of defense is positioning. O-Cab, for one isolated example, makes fewer of those Sportscenter highlights now than he did in '04 and '05, but that's because he positions himself better, not because he is a worse defender. How do we take initial positioning into effect for any defensive metric?

[Jayhawk Bill]

Let's be clear here, Burrell is the next to last "qualified" LF. Plenty of Millar, Hinske, Johnny Gomes types play a good amount of games in LF without becoming "qualified".

 

Some small-sample 2007 LF RZR stats:

 

Kevin Millar: 1.000

Eric Hinske: .786 (with Boston!)

Johnny Gomes .740

 

All of them were better than Manny Ramirez in left field. You chose the names...

 

JB and ORS (and others as well), do you guys feel like we have an adequate grasp on fielding statistics yet? As Bill James--and many others have pointed out, defense is almost impossible to measure effectively, and errors are one of the worst ways of doing it. I like the idea of Zone Ratings, but without an accurate way of measuring HOW the balls that went into a fielders zone were hit, it is hard to judge the difference between a LF making a sliding catch on a 106mph line drive vs a pop fly. I know this is adjusted for by the sheer size of the data pool, particular park adjustments, etc., but it still seems to me that batting evaluation is well ahead of fielding valuation.

 

Overall, I love the quest for finding accurate statistical models for fielding, I just don't think it has been achieved yet.

 

I think that fielding metrics are roughly as good as batting metrics.

 

There are two types of fielding metrics: those that count actual performance and contributions in games (Range Factor and the much-maligned FRAA) and those attempting to measure fielding rates (ZR-based stats and similar metrics). If you think about it, there's no public-sector batting metric that even tries to parallel ZR: a detailed breakdown of each hitter's batting lines for pitches in 30-odd distinct and different locations over and around the plate would be a close parallel. We don't get SLG for balls in zone and balls out of zone; we get BA/OBP/SLG. I've noticed that Kevin Cash gets better pitches than Manny Ramirez; that's not considered in their stats. I've noticed that players have differing luck regarding their balls in play, just as fielders have differing luck regarding balls hit into their zones, but that's accepted without second thoughts.

 

Returning to topic, almost every fielding metric worth checking suggests that Manny is really bad--not kinda bad, but really bad. That's got to matter.

[ORS]

I don't think anyone is suggesting he isn't bad, even really bad. There's a tradeoff with Manny that we are all very familiar with. I don't think we've hit the break-even point yet.

[Fried Neckbones]

Returning to topic' date=' almost every fielding metric worth checking suggests that Manny is really bad--not kinda bad, but really bad. That's got to matter.[/quote']

 

Yes, but that's not why he was brought to Boston.

 

What do his runs created vs. runs allowed look like? I don't know for sure, but I'm guessing that he creates a great deal many more runs/9 than he allows.

[Jayhawk Bill]

What do his runs created vs. runs allowed look like? I don't know for sure' date=' but I'm guessing that he creates a great deal many more runs/9 than he allows.[/quote']

 

Well, for a non-rigorous quick check we can look at BP's DFT Card for Manny. They say that he was 20 runs above average as a hitter and 17 runs below average as a fielder--that's a net of just three runs above average in 2007. Now, certainly an average MLB player has some value, but I don't think that roughly average players are signing for $20 million a year these days.

[example1]

That would be pretty freaking cool' date=' but I don't know how accuratly that would measure defensive ability. Too much of defense is positioning. O-Cab, for one isolated example, makes fewer of those Sportscenter highlights now than he did in '04 and '05, but that's because he positions himself better, not because he is a worse defender. How do we take initial positioning into effect for any defensive metric?[/quote']

 

I'm not sure the answer to that, but step one to any such answer is always data collection. Knowing the exact location of the players (I like the button of the cap idea) and where they make outs, along with some way of measuring the trajectory of the ball would be a nice place to start.

 

One could figure out statistically how well-positioned a player is by looking at the distance he needs to travel to get balls compared to the league average or a historical average for similarly hit balls. You could adjust it for the park, or you could collect stats for many years in any particular park and probably find a good measure. You could also compare his "starting distance" from some pre-determined "center" for the position.

 

Basically, if you have all the data about where the players are at all times, and you have the exact data about where and how hard the ball was hit, then you could come up with ways of isolating how many more outs were recorded by particular players and compare them along those lines.

 

I imagine by any measure we would figure out that Manny is a bad fielder. A very bad fielder apparently.

 

Well' date=' for a non-rigorous quick check we can look at BP's DFT Card for Manny. They say that he was 20 runs above average as a hitter and 17 runs below average as a fielder--that's a net of just three runs above average in 2007. Now, certainly an average MLB player has some value, but I don't think that roughly average players are signing for $20 million a year these days.[/quote']

 

Fair enough, but for the prior 6 seasons (his career in BOS) Manny averaged 33.5 runs above average. His FRAA this year (-17) isn't nearly as bad as his -29 last year. He seems to hover in the -17 to -25 area, which is pretty bad. It's really bad, actually.

 

The nice thing is that the Manny decision does not have to be made right now. The decision of whether or not to trade him will be based largely on what they can get in return. Otherwise, Manny has a year to show he can still rip it at the 33.5 runs above average pace that he did previously, or whether the 3 that you cited above is to be expected.

 

In any case, 3 runs above average isn't very good and certainly not worth 20m. I will give him a pass for a year, because he's Manny and has historically been a spectacular hitter. There aren't obvious replacements available, so he can keep hitting cleanup for the time being.

[jacksonianmarch]

just a ??. Is Manny's option a mutual one or a club option?

 

And to be honest with you guys, I think it all depends on what goes on in 08. He showed signs of breaking down with the knee last yr and the oblique this yr. If he accelerates his injury pattern this yr, they wont take him back for 20 mil. No way.

[riverside sluggers]

http://mlb4u.com/profile.php?id=895

 

2009 and 2010 are team options

[Mr Crunchy]

you guys and your sabremetrics dont take into account the sheer terror manny puts in the stomach of mlb pitching...some day one of these #s geeks will have a stat for the amount of heartburn the opposing pitchers feel when ramirez is up.

 

i dont know what +3 means but i do know manny is the best right handed hitter i have ever seen and this team isnt nearly as good without him,if need be look at how we performed in his absence down the stretch then compare it to our run thru october...

its very obvious

mike lowell and david ortiz ought to build a statue of manny

both men profit large due to this mans mere presense in the lineup.

theres no way we have manny and arod in the same lineup but if we lose manny without a viable replacemnt we will feel hurt offensivley

[YAZMAN]

you guys and your sabremetrics dont take into account the sheer terror manny puts in the stomach of mlb pitching...some day one of these #s geeks will have a stat for the amount of heartburn the opposing pitchers feel when ramirez is up.

 

i dont know what +3 means but i do know manny is the best right handed hitter i have ever seen and this team isnt nearly as good without him,if need be look at how we performed in his absence down the stretch then compare it to our run thru october...

its very obvious

mike lowell and david ortiz ought to build a statue of manny

both men profit large due to this mans mere presense in the lineup.

theres no way we have manny and arod in the same lineup but if we lose manny without a viable replacemnt we will feel hurt offensivley

 

+1

[jacksonianmarch]

I agree with you crunchy. But how long can Manny be this good for? And will he break down? These are real questions that need to be answered before accepting the option.

 

If Manny has a down yr marred by injury next season, then there is no way the sox pick up that option. But if he does his customary .300/30/120 season, then I dont think it is much of a question.

[YAZMAN]

I agree with you crunchy. But how long can Manny be this good for? And will he break down? These are real questions that need to be answered before accepting the option.

 

If Manny has a down yr marred by injury next season, then there is no way the sox pick up that option. But if he does his customary .300/30/120 season, then I dont think it is much of a question.

 

 

You'd have him in left field tomorrow if you could.

[das11209]

Let's check Manny's Zone Rating...we'll use RZR:

 

2004 .578

2005 .527

2006 .643

2007 .684

 

On the bright side, like a fine wine, Manny's defense seems to improve with age.

 

On the down side, like Boone's Farm, aside from its being worth a few giggles among friends it's really pretty bad if you evaluate it objectively.

 

Per THT, 16 MLB players qualified for consideration as full-time left fielders in 2007. Fifteen of those players had RZRs ranging from .923 (Eric Byrnes) to .803 (Pat Burrell). Manny's .684 RZR was further below the next-to-worst fielder's RZR than that player's RZR was below the leader's. Manny has been worst in MLB for three consecutive years; only Adam Dunn and Miggy Cabrera have come close to Manny's ineptitude in that time. Pat Burrell and, especially, Barry Bonds are comfortably better than Manny in the outfield.

 

Do I want Manny at his option price in 2009? Only as a DH. Because that would mean that Big Papi had been traded or that he'd suffered a terrible setback as a player, I'm hoping that there won't be a role for Manny in 2009 on the Red Sox, unless he's willing to come back to Boston for far less than his option price and play as a starter in Fenway and a fourth OF/PH on the road.

 

 

One thing I have to say here is Manny plays the green monster better than anyone - yeah his defense sucks on Road.

[example1]

you guys and your sabremetrics dont take into account the sheer terror manny puts in the stomach of mlb pitching...some day one of these #s geeks will have a stat for the amount of heartburn the opposing pitchers feel when ramirez is up.

 

i dont know what +3 means but i do know manny is the best right handed hitter i have ever seen and this team isnt nearly as good without him,if need be look at how we performed in his absence down the stretch then compare it to our run thru october...

its very obvious

mike lowell and david ortiz ought to build a statue of manny

both men profit large due to this mans mere presense in the lineup.

theres no way we have manny and arod in the same lineup but if we lose manny without a viable replacemnt we will feel hurt offensivley

 

Manny is a great hitter.

 

His comparable players through age 35 are Ken Griffey, Jeff Bagwell, Frank Thomas, Frank Robinson, Barry Bonds, Jim Thome, Gary Sheffield, Willie Mays, Mickey Mantle and Chipper Jones. Sabermatricians used statistics to figure those out and I think they back up your point. Usually, if it can be argued for logically, it can be shown statistically.

 

If Manny really is causing pitchers to get ulcers and lose their s*** on the mound then one should be able to show that in his numbers. This year he may have scared them, but it didn't show in his numbers. Perhaps he simply didn't take advantage of pitchers having to throw their "quaking in their boots ball".

 

Seriously though, I don't think the Sox are naive enough to plan a move forward without a serious RH power threat someplace in the order. Whether that is A-Rod or Miguel Cabrera or Manny I don't know. What I do know is that when the sox go after this person with all their money and resources, they will be sure to get someone who makes tough-outs, draws plenty of walks, and can hit mistakes over the fence. They are few and far between, but Manny is no the only player who does that.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Manny is a great hitter.

 

His comparable players through age 35 are Ken Griffey, Jeff Bagwell, Frank Thomas, Frank Robinson, Barry Bonds, Jim Thome, Gary Sheffield, Willie Mays, Mickey Mantle and Chipper Jones. Sabermatricians used statistics to figure those out and I think they back up your point. Usually, if it can be argued for logically, it can be shown statistically.

 

If Manny really is causing pitchers to get ulcers and lose their s*** on the mound then one should be able to show that in his numbers. This year he may have scared them, but it didn't show in his numbers. Perhaps he simply didn't take advantage of pitchers having to throw their "quaking in their boots ball".

 

BP PECOTA uses the past three seasons, not the entire past career, to determine comparables. Manny's 20 PECOTA comparables entering 2007 were some fearsome batters, including Ted Williams, Hank Aaron and Willie Mays.

 

The trouble is that almost all of those comparable hitters had much better age 35 seasons. Using WARP3 as the metric, 14 were a full win or more better than Manny at age 35 and two (Reggie Jackson and Kevin Mitchell) were more than a win worse. Only four had seasons within a win of Manny's value at age 35:

 

Roy Sievers

Sammy Sosa

Mickey Mantle

Willie Stargell.

 

How did those four-most-comparable comparable players do at age 37, Manny's age in 2009?

 

Stargell: .274, 13 HR, 35 RBI

Sievers: .172, 4 HR, 11 RBI

Sosa: Out of baseball

Mantle: Out of baseball

 

This may be the start of a serious decline for Manny.

 

Fair enough, but for the prior 6 seasons (his career in BOS) Manny averaged 33.5 runs above average. His FRAA this year (-17) isn't nearly as bad as his -29 last year. He seems to hover in the -17 to -25 area, which is pretty bad. It's really bad, actually.

 

Yes, the fielding is really bad. FRAA is actually kinder than Zone Rating-based metrics regarding Manny's fielding.

 

Regarding his batting, 42% of the BRAA you cite came from 2002 and 2003, and just 58% for the last four years combined. Even averaging his excellent 2004-2006 seasons in with his 2007, the average BRAA for each of the four seasons is only a bit better than two-thirds as good as his 2002-2003 level. The fielding each year is at least three times worse than his 2002-2003 level, using FRAA as the metric. He's going downhill.

 

The nice thing is that the Manny decision does not have to be made right now. The decision of whether or not to trade him will be based largely on what they can get in return. Otherwise, Manny has a year to show he can still rip it at the 33.5 runs above average pace that he did previously, or whether the 3 that you cited above is to be expected.

 

Agreed. But posting tonight, I'm not optimistic that Manny will be a superstar hitter, or an adequate left fielder, in 2009.

[a700hitter]

Manny in decline is still a star hitter. He might not be a 40 HR 150 RBI guy, but he'll still have an OBP around .400 and OPS over .900. If he does that and only hits 25 HRs and plays only 135 games, I am fine with that. That will help get the 4th OF some playing time and keep him happy. If ARod is worht $30 million for 8-10 years, manny is a bargain, yes a bargain, at $20 million for 1 year.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Manny in decline is still a star hitter. He might not be a 40 HR 150 RBI guy' date=' but he'll still have an OBP around .400 and OPS over .900. If he does that and only hits 25 HRs and plays only 135 games, I am fine with that. That will help get the 4th OF some playing time and keep him happy.[/quote']

 

OK, let's do a reality check. You're projecting that two years from now, Manny Ramirez will hit for an OBP of .400, an OPS of .900, with at least 25 HR, in at least 135 games. This year, at age 35, Manny met none of those benchmarks. He hasn't played in 135 games either of the past two years. He's missed a .400 OBP three of the past four years.

 

David Gassko of THT did a study on how players compared to average in 2007, available here:

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/my-2007-mvps/

 

The complete table of results is linked at the end of the article explaining Gassko's methodology. Per Gassko, Manny Ramirez was only five runs better than the average MLB left fielder at the plate in 2007. Gassko further cites Manny as being a 29-run-liability in left field, for a net value of -24 runs to the Boston Red Sox last season.

 

If ARod is worht $30 million for 8-10 years, manny is a bargain, yes a bargain, at $20 million for 1 year.

 

For which one year?

 

For 2006, to a team that can use him at DH and reaches the postseason? I don't know about "bargain," but Manny was a very valuable hitter last year for the games that he played, and his durability might've been better as a DH. In the postseason, Manny's coolness under pressure seems to escalate his performance: he was great from the 2003 ALCS through the 2007 ALCS, he was good in the World Series, and if one extends his 43-game Boston postseason batting line to 162 games, it would be a .321, 41 HR, 143 RBI batting line. The regular season features "Manny being Manny;" the postseason has featured "Manny being great." Had Manny cost Boston no runs in left field, and had Manny helped Boston to an ALDS win or more, he would've been worth his salary last year.

 

For this year? Sorry, but regardless of his postseason work, Manny probably wasn't worth $20 million this year. BP considers him to have been three runs above average; Gassko considers him to have been 24 runs below average. Still, 2007 was part of a package deal, and Manny from 2001-2008 may have been worth his very high salary: Manny was an important part of two World Championships. Contract out years are usually overpriced, so it's not a slam at the Duquette front office, but Manny wasn't worth his salary in 2007.

 

For 2009? Manny has become a slow-moving slugger with age, and slow-moving sluggers decline swiftly. His injuries in 2006 and 2007 augur badly for his future. As I pointed out above, there's a very real chance that Manny will be out of baseball entirely by 2009. That said, if Manny's knees are fine in 2008 and he has a surprising contract year, I'd possibly reconsider, but Manny's work in 2006-2007 points to his being among those great hitters unable to continue in the field in their late 30's, and I'm hoping that the Boston DH spot will be filled by Big Papi until 2010, at least. I think that Manny will be worth far less than $20 million in 2009, and I don't think that he'll have a role in Boston.

[a700hitter]

OK' date=' let's do a reality check. You're projecting that two years from now, Manny Ramirez will hit for an OBP of .400, an OPS of .900, with at least 25 HR, in at least 135 games. This year, at age 35, Manny met none of those benchmarks. He hasn't played in 135 games either of the past two years. He's missed a .400 OBP three of the past four years.[/quote']I said "around" .400. .388 and .397 are pretty close. He played 130 and 133 games the last two years due to injuries. I think it could be argued that this year he had been overused. He was playing almost everyday until he pulled the oblique. I would dial back his workload to keep him fresh, and yes I think he would still be very productive.

 

David Gassko of THT did a study on how players compared to average in 2007, available here:

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/my-2007-mvps/

 

The complete table of results is linked at the end of the article explaining Gassko's methodology. Per Gassko, Manny Ramirez was only five runs better than the average MLB left fielder at the plate in 2007. Gassko further cites Manny as being a 29-run-liability in left field, for a net value of -24 runs to the Boston Red Sox last season.

How do you determine the average LF? The -29 number for fielding is just ludicrous.

[Jayhawk Bill]

How do you determine the average LF? The -29 number for fielding is just ludicrous.

 

"Ludicrous" as in the sense of "It's so terrible that I can't help but laugh 'til I cry?"

 

OK, from Gassko's article:

 

To evaluate fielding, I used The Hardball Times zone rating statistics and converted them first into plays and then runs above average using a method similar to the one described here.

 

"Here" is this link:

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/what-is-zone-rating/

 

Which goes through how to use the RZR and OOZ stats at THT to determine similar figures, if you're interested. It's not a subjective figure--Manny really is somewhere "around" that bad. FRAA had him at just -17, but FRAA is considered less precise than RZR-derived stats in some circles...:dunno:

 

I said "around" .400. .388 and .397 are pretty close. He played 130 and 133 games the last two years due to injuries. I think it could be argued that this year he had been overused. He was playing almost everyday until he pulled the oblique. I would dial back his workload to keep him fresh, and yes I think he would still be very productive.

 

Projecting a player to be better at age 37 at any key performance metric than he was for three out of four years between ages 32 and 35 is a bold projection.

 

Your faith in Manny is duly noted; let's see what 2008 brings to see if either of us changes our minds.

[a700hitter]

"Ludicrous" as in the sense of "It's so terrible that I can't help but laugh 'til I cry?"

 

OK, from Gassko's article:

 

 

 

"Here" is this link:

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/what-is-zone-rating/

 

Which goes through how to use the RZR and OOZ stats at THT to determine similar figures, if you're interested. It's not a subjective figure--Manny really is somewhere "around" that bad. FRAA had him at just -17, but FRAA is considered less precise than RZR-derived stats in some circles...:dunno:

...and how would someone verify the accuracy of such a statistical theory?

Projecting a player to be better at age 37 at any key performance metric than he was for three out of four years between ages 32 and 35 is a bold projection.

 

Your faith in Manny is duly noted; let's see what 2008 brings to see if either of us changes our minds.

Normally, I would agree with you, but not when the player was injured for substantial portions of two of those three years. These injuries are not of the chronic variety, and if Manny stays healthy he should produce.

[Jayhawk Bill]

...and how would someone verify the accuracy of such a statistical theory?

 

Well, first they'd have to read the article for which a link was provided. Then they'd realize that, unlike projection systems such as PECOTA, it's a stat, not a theory. It's as "accurate" as OBP or HR or RBI...it just measures something different.

 

Sep 25, 2007: Missed 24 games (oblique injury).

Aug 29, 2007: Oblique injury, day-to-day.

Jun 10, 2007: Missed 1 game (wrist injury).

Jun 9, 2007: Wrist injury, day-to-day.

Sep 30, 2006: Missed 4 games (patella tendinitis).

Sep 24, 2006: Patella tendinitis, day-to-day.

Sep 23, 2006: Missed 23 games (right knee injury).

Sep 10, 2006: Right knee injury, day-to-day.

Sep 4, 2006: Missed 8 games (right knee injury).

Aug 29, 2006: Right knee injury, day-to-day.

Aug 26, 2006: Missed 1 game (knee injury).

Aug 25, 2006: Knee injury, day-to-day.

Jun 18, 2006: Missed 1 game (knee injury).

Jun 17, 2006: Knee injury, day-to-day.

May 29, 2006: Missed 2 games (illness).

May 27, 2006: Illness, day-to-day.

 

That's Manny's two-year injury log from Sportsnet.ca.

 

http://www2.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/players/Manny_Ramirez/

 

My lack of faith in Manny's future health is significant, particularly regarding the health of his knees.

[a700hitter]

Well, first they'd have to read the article for which a link was provided. Then they'd realize that, unlike projection systems such as PECOTA, it's a stat, not a theory. It's as "accurate" as OBP or HR or RBI...it just measures something different.

 

Sep 25, 2007: Missed 24 games (oblique injury).

Aug 29, 2007: Oblique injury, day-to-day.

Jun 10, 2007: Missed 1 game (wrist injury).

Jun 9, 2007: Wrist injury, day-to-day.

Sep 30, 2006: Missed 4 games (patella tendinitis).

Sep 24, 2006: Patella tendinitis, day-to-day.

Sep 23, 2006: Missed 23 games (right knee injury).

Sep 10, 2006: Right knee injury, day-to-day.

Sep 4, 2006: Missed 8 games (right knee injury).

Aug 29, 2006: Right knee injury, day-to-day.

Aug 26, 2006: Missed 1 game (knee injury).

Aug 25, 2006: Knee injury, day-to-day.

Jun 18, 2006: Missed 1 game (knee injury).

Jun 17, 2006: Knee injury, day-to-day.

May 29, 2006: Missed 2 games (illness).

May 27, 2006: Illness, day-to-day.

 

That's Manny's two-year injury log from Sportsnet.ca.

 

http://www2.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/players/Manny_Ramirez/

 

My lack of faith in Manny's future health is significant, particularly regarding the health of his knees.

I was asking how it could be verified that he is at -17 runs as a fielder. This is his injury log.

[CrespoBlows]

I read the article. I understood how they came up with it.

[a700hitter]

It's a statistical theory. At most it is an indicator. It does not determine with accuracy the number of runs a fielder saves or gives up for his team.

[8 Yaz 67]

Is he worth $20 million a year from now?

 

Personally I don't think any athlete or entertainer is worth $20 Million a year. Who really deserves that kind of money? I understand that without the players there is no game and the players put the fans in the seats. But it's getting crazy. The price of seats (even obstructed view), has gotten ridiculous. If the players could play for less, and if the owners could expect a little less from their baseball investment, the price for a seat could be more reasonable. My dad had to take a family of six to the game. Prices for bleacher seats was $1.50 for seats and $1.00 on benches. Now regular bleacher seats are $23 and upper bleachers goes for $12. These are considered the family seats. Unfortunately when you sit in the upper bleachers you are a very long way away from the action. Loge seats are $85! These used to be called Reserve Grandstand and went for maybe $15. Back when I was a kid my dad took me and my family to a game for my birthday. We'd get reserve grandstand and it would cost him about 90-bucks before any hot dogs were eaten. Today he'd be looking at $510! My dad was a pharmacist and my mom a school teacher. The $90 was do-able, but not every week. $510 would have been out of the question. I wonder what pharmacists and teachers think about the $510 today. Maybe it's all relative, but it doesn't look like it to me. Now when you add the ticket resellers to the equation, "forgetta-bout-it!"

 

I say yes, resign Manny when the day comes. He'd like to end his career in a Red Sox uniform and have his number retired. I'd like to see that happen, too. That's the stuff that makes a franchise feel like family as opposed to some company. Manny is good enough to always be productive. If he's being loyal to the Red Sox and doesn't ask for an outrageous amount of money, I say return the loyalty and resign him. Plus Manny wants a job at NESN when he retires. LOL We want to keep him around for that. Right? I wonder if the Remdawg is looking over his shoulder. Actually, I'd love to see Manny trying to interview the players. That would be hilarious! Manny being Manny! LOL