Theo - "We Like Mike"

[TheKilo]

dont be overly surprised if lowell and manny are gone and #13 is playing 3rd next year here.

the 2@5 hitters in boston have to be the most sought after batting posiitions for any ball player in the league

in front of papi and manny or behind papi and manny

in any case you're going to get some hacks in and this is a good reason why lowell had so much success

everyone saw what happened when manny was out

this offense was anemic

if they lose him and id say hes a goner because the front office pencil necks 1st order of business when they bought the team was waiving him and theyve been trying to move him ever since......

they're going to need an rbi guy to replace him and not like jose offerman replaced mo vaugh either.

arod had 150rbi?

theo gets distracted by shiny objects and glitter and always had a hard on arod so my senses say we're going to get involved in this arod thing inspite of lowells production,in spite of arods gagging like a bukkake queen in october and inspite of our teams current success.

 

I was with you until the last part. Theo does the best he can to field the best team in baseball, which he's done 2 of the last 4 years.

 

"Getting distracted" and "going after his favorites" is a story that's played up far, far too much IMO.

[See Red]

... "Gagging like a bukkake queen"?

 

:lol:

[TheKilo]

I really truly think they are going to make a serious push for Lowell this offseason. Keep in mind he's only 17 months older than ARod.

 

If you're going to commit long term to one of these two guys, I just feel it'd be better for them to spend ~$15 million per for Lowell over the course of 3 or 4 years than commit $30 million to ARod for 8.

 

Maybe that's just me. But what the guy brings to the table is incredible. He said last night that his heart is in Boston.

 

I'd sign the guy.

[MANNYHOF24]

I really truly think they are going to make a serious push for Lowell this offseason. Keep in mind he's only 17 months older than ARod.

 

If you're going to commit long term to one of these two guys, I just feel it'd be better for them to spend ~$15 million per for Lowell over the course of 3 or 4 years than commit $30 million to ARod for 8.

 

Maybe that's just me. But what the guy brings to the table is incredible. He said last night that his heart is in Boston.

 

I'd sign the guy.

 

agreed. This guy is perfect here. It's pretty exciting to think about actually for next season. Our lineup should only be better than it was this season. With a healthy Manny and Ortiz, Lowell, Drew who should be a lot better, Youk, Pedroia, and Ellsbury all sparking the lineup, Tek being solid, and hopefully a improved Lugo should make for a much more consistent lineup in 08. Which is scary to think about with a Rotation of Beckett, DiceK, Buchholz, Lester, and Wake/Schilling. We have a great chance to go back to back, which would be awesome.

[redsoxrules]

do you guys think 15 million is gona be enough for lowell? i mean with the way the market is today where JD just got 14 million a year, lowell is certainly better with the bat and defense and is only 1 year older , it wouldn't surprise me if lowell gets 16-17 million a year

[a700hitter]

I'd go 3/$39 million.

[Jayhawk Bill]

I like Mike. Really. I do.

 

I'm just not sure how much I like him, or for how long I'll like him. And what really worries me is how much it might take to sign him.

 

There's been a fair amount of recent attention in cyberspace to Baseball Prospectus's salary value forecast for Mike Lowel published in their PECOTA projections this spring. Here it is:

 

2008 $9,325,000

2009 $8,000,000

2010 $5,750,000

2011 $5,325,000

 

Nothing too scary there.

 

The thing is, when this was published Lowell was only one season removed from his horrible 2005 season, where he batted .236/.298/.360 with 58 RBI in 150 games, the season that led to his becoming the "throw-in" in the Josh Beckett trade. That nightmare is now two years past, and his most recent season featured his all-time best OBP, 120 RBI, and a World Series MVP. While those are listed in order of decreasing importance, they may be in order of increasing importance with regards to his salary.

 

How should we adjust our forecast?

 

PECOTA salary projections (MORP) are based upon a player's Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP), along with regression analysis of the most recent free agent market. Setting aside momentarily that the last free agent market may understate the value of third basemen in this market, how would the difference in recent performance--in WARP--translate into salary?

 

A lowest-case estimate would just take the difference between 2007 WARP and 2006 WARP, leaving the rest of the forecast intact. That would increase the salary projection like this:

 

2008 $11,080,004

2009 $9,269,076

2010 $7,573,697

2011 $6,002,355

 

That's roughly a 2/20 or a 3/28 forecast...still nothing too scary.

 

But still an obvious underestimate.

 

What if we simply shift the forecast by the difference between the 2007 PECOTA WARP and the actual 2007 WARP? PECOTA projected Mike Lowell to be at 4.4 WARP in 2007, declining from there. He was actually at 7.0 WARP--he got better, not worse, from 2006 to 2007. Suppose we keep the linear rate of decline constant, but from this higher data point?

 

Now the numbers get scary:

 

2008 $18,905,451

2009 $16,710,276

2010 $14,609,389

2011 $12,607,229

 

Now contracts like 3/50 start to look reasonable.

 

Is this really reasonable?

 

Well, PECOTA regresses to the mean, and those regressed numbers are used for computing salary projections. Hitters' stats are regressed less than pitchers' stats, but just shifting the curve up would overstate for that reason.

 

It would understate for three other reasons, though:

 

1) That 2005 season has retreated far enough into history to be considered an outlier data point. The 2008 PECOTA--and the current modeling by MLB teams regarding Lowell--will be adjusted accordingly.

 

2) The third base market will be tight in 2007-2008: if you don't get A-Rod or Lowell, you're stranded. Lowell is, amazingly, the bargain option...the Mercedes, not the Lamborghini.

 

3) Somehow, RBIs and MVP Awards always DO seem to count when it comes to salaries.

 

***

 

Do I want Mike Lowell back? Absolutely. Do I want him back if it takes $51 million over three years to seal the deal?

 

Sadly, no.

[Sam Malone]

Do they trade Crisp?

[jmcc]

agreed. This guy is perfect here. It's pretty exciting to think about actually for next season. Our lineup should only be better than it was this season. With a healthy Manny and Ortiz' date=' Lowell, Drew who should be a lot better, Youk, Pedroia, and Ellsbury all sparking the lineup, Tek being solid, and hopefully a improved Lugo should make for a much more consistent lineup in 08. Which is scary to think about with a Rotation of Beckett, DiceK, Buchholz, Lester, and Wake/Schilling. We have a great chance to go back to back, which would be awesome.[/quote']

 

Very true, which is why I hate the A-Rod talk. This team is set if we can get Lowell back.

[riverside sluggers]

I would be stoked to hear the Sox keep Lowell in Boston. He is quickly becoming a part of Boston lore. He has embraced Boston, and Boston has embraced him back. A 3 or 4 year deal isnt asking for much, keep the sexy man named Mike Lowell

[silvercreekcc2006]

I would be stoked to hear the Sox keep Lowell in Boston. He is quickly becoming a part of Boston lore. He has embraced Boston' date=' and Boston has embraced him back. A 3 or 4 year deal isnt asking for much, keep the sexy man named Mike Lowell[/quote']

 

It would sure be nice to keep him around. I really felt the same about Bill Mueller, and it's just sick that he's out of the game. It was so cool to see him throw out the pitch in the ALCS.

 

Seems guys just become part of the Sox community. Mikey is one of them.:thumbsup:

[example1]

I like Mike. Really. I do.

 

I'm just not sure how much I like him, or for how long I'll like him. And what really worries me is how much it might take to sign him.

 

Me too...

 

There's been a fair amount of recent attention in cyberspace to Baseball Prospectus's salary value forecast for Mike Lowel published in their PECOTA projections this spring. Here it is:

 

2008 $9,325,000

2009 $8,000,000

2010 $5,750,000

2011 $5,325,000

 

Nothing too scary there.

 

The thing is, when this was published Lowell was only one season removed from his horrible 2005 season, where he batted .236/.298/.360 with 58 RBI in 150 games, the season that led to his becoming the "throw-in" in the Josh Beckett trade. That nightmare is now two years past, and his most recent season featured his all-time best OBP, 120 RBI, and a World Series MVP. While those are listed in order of decreasing importance, they may be in order of increasing importance with regards to his salary.

 

How should we adjust our forecast?

 

PECOTA salary projections (MORP) are based upon a player's Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP), along with regression analysis of the most recent free agent market. Setting aside momentarily that the last free agent market may understate the value of third basemen in this market, how would the difference in recent performance--in WARP--translate into salary?

 

A lowest-case estimate would just take the difference between 2007 WARP and 2006 WARP, leaving the rest of the forecast intact. That would increase the salary projection like this:

 

2008 $11,080,004

2009 $9,269,076

2010 $7,573,697

2011 $6,002,355

 

That's roughly a 2/20 or a 3/28 forecast...still nothing too scary.

 

But still an obvious underestimate.

 

It is still an underestimate, but this is getting closer to the possible "hometown discount" range that players like Varitek and Arroyo took. That range for Lowell is likely between 11-13m, given his superior offensive numbers to 'Tek but 'Tek's important role with the pitching staff and defensively.

 

What if we simply shift the forecast by the difference between the 2007 PECOTA WARP and the actual 2007 WARP? PECOTA projected Mike Lowell to be at 4.4 WARP in 2007, declining from there. He was actually at 7.0 WARP--he got better, not worse, from 2006 to 2007. Suppose we keep the linear rate of decline constant, but from this higher data point?

 

Now the numbers get scary:

 

2008 $18,905,451

2009 $16,710,276

2010 $14,609,389

2011 $12,607,229

 

Now contracts like 3/50 start to look reasonable.

 

Is this really reasonable?

 

 

I think that the signing of guys like Gary Matthews Jr. show that it is reasonable, insofar as we can expect that someone will offer him something close. Those numbers above work out to about 15m a season, so 3 years/45 could be reasonable but also expensive. The question is whether he will accept 3 years, and whether the Sox view his potential production in the 4th season as good enough to justify simply offering him the 4th year. He has been relatively healthy and consistent when healthy. He had one poor year but some pretty spectacular ones too. As a "clubhouse leader" and "clutch performer" he's at his peak right now, so I could certainly see a team like the Dodgers aggressively pursuing him to make him Torre's new right-hand (but left side of the infield) man.

 

Well, PECOTA regresses to the mean, and those regressed numbers are used for computing salary projections. Hitters' stats are regressed less than pitchers' stats, but just shifting the curve up would overstate for that reason.

 

It would understate for three other reasons, though:

 

1) That 2005 season has retreated far enough into history to be considered an outlier data point. The 2008 PECOTA--and the current modeling by MLB teams regarding Lowell--will be adjusted accordingly.

 

2) The third base market will be tight in 2007-2008: if you don't get A-Rod or Lowell, you're stranded. Lowell is, amazingly, the bargain option...the Mercedes, not the Lamborghini.

 

3) Somehow, RBIs and MVP Awards always DO seem to count when it comes to salaries.

***

 

Do I want Mike Lowell back? Absolutely. Do I want him back if it takes $51 million over three years to seal the deal?

 

Sadly, no.

 

First of all, yours' is a great post. I hope you stick around with such thoughtful and well worded arguments.

 

Secondly, I agree with your conclusion but do not know where that leaves the team. How much MORE valuable is Alex Rodriguez as a 3B? As you said, there aren't many 2nd tier options beyond Lowell and A-Rod, so would the team look at moving Youk to 3B and bringing up either Carter or moving Moss or someone (Drew?) to 1B?

 

The move that makes the most logistical sense is to resign Mike Lowell, perhaps over-valuing him, in order to solidify a position that is otherwise difficult to fill with quality talent. This would keep a pretty solid core for the team, give them the 2nd best available player at 3B (probably the 2nd best 3B in the AL overall, actually), and allow them to do so at a reasonable-ish price--particularly compared the the 30m that the Sox may be forced to pay for the A-lternative.

 

Something tells me that if the Sox make an aggressive but reasonable offer to Lowell for 3 years or more, he will take it. He understands how this team operates and knows that they would be making the offer based on what they can give him and remain competitive in other areas, including luxury tax and spending habits.

 

Anyway, again, great post. My hope is that Lowell won't push it into the 15m area but that the Sox will be more accommodating to his requests than they were to Damon and Pedro. I feel there is likely some gray area in negotiation here and that is good for the Sox.

[TheKilo]

JB - excellent post.

 

Quick questions - What do your numbers say ARod should get, and when put in comparison to these numbers, which would be the better investment (knowing how long ARod's contract will be - ~8 years)?

[das11209]

Let us talk about a scenario if we do not get Lowell or A-Rod. For example A-Rod signs with the cubs and Yankees offer Lowell 52 million for 3 years and he leaves.

 

Our options will be :

 

1. Move Youk to 3rd and sign Adum Dunn.

 

2. Trade for Miggy Cabrera.

 

3. Anything else?

[Jayhawk Bill]

First of all, yours' is a great post. I hope you stick around with such thoughtful and well worded arguments.

 

Secondly, I agree with your conclusion but do not know where that leaves the team. How much MORE valuable is Alex Rodriguez as a 3B? As you said, there aren't many 2nd tier options beyond Lowell and A-Rod, so would the team look at moving Youk to 3B and bringing up either Carter or moving Moss or someone (Drew?) to 1B?

 

The move that makes the most logistical sense is to resign Mike Lowell, perhaps over-valuing him, in order to solidify a position that is otherwise difficult to fill with quality talent. This would keep a pretty solid core for the team, give them the 2nd best available player at 3B (probably the 2nd best 3B in the AL overall, actually), and allow them to do so at a reasonable-ish price--particularly compared the the 30m that the Sox may be forced to pay for the A-lternative.

 

Something tells me that if the Sox make an aggressive but reasonable offer to Lowell for 3 years or more, he will take it. He understands how this team operates and knows that they would be making the offer based on what they can give him and remain competitive in other areas, including luxury tax and spending habits.

 

Anyway, again, great post. My hope is that Lowell won't push it into the 15m area but that the Sox will be more accommodating to his requests than they were to Damon and Pedro. I feel there is likely some gray area in negotiation here and that is good for the Sox.

 

Too kind; thank you.

 

The obvious alternative to Mike Lowell involves moving Youkilis to third, bringing up Chris Carter and finding a platoon partner for Carter who can hit lefties and can field the position well. Carter can already hit RHP at what appears to be an MLB level:

 

Pawtucket 2007: .300/.364/.500

Tucson 2007: .339/.388/.555

Tucson 2006: .300/.399/.525

 

Source: Minor League Splits (I can't post links yet. )

 

Pawtucket was a small sample size, but the two years at Tucson aren't and the stats vs. RHP are similar at both sites. Carter can hit RHP; the trouble is that he's a little substandard vs. LHP and a lot substandard with his glove.

 

Guys who can play first base pretty well and who can hit LHP are available. Some of them are trapped AAA prospects whose stats vs. RHP are holding them back from MLB; some are veterans. Some might put Kevin Millar into such a category, just to choose one name in whom the Red Sox were recently rumored to have interest. I suspect that there are better candidates, although there might be few more popular at Fenway.

 

But answering your query, I see the alternative to Mike Lowell as being Chris Carter and a platoon partner. That would save Boston a very considerable amount of payroll, money that could be used either for pitching, for potential high-priced mid-season acquisitions, or for future seasons' free agents.

 

JB - excellent post.

 

Quick questions - What do your numbers say ARod should get, and when put in comparison to these numbers, which would be the better investment (knowing how long ARod's contract will be - ~8 years)?

 

Again, thanks. Remember, though, BP published the formula: I'm merely applying it to an adjusted PECOTA forecast.

 

A-Rod...that's tough. But making these assumptions:

 

1) We use the same shift to the PECOTA forecast that we did in the third instance for Mike Lowell, the difference between the forecast 2007 projection and the actual 2007 value; and

 

2) After four years we assume a 10% reduction in WARP each successive year;

 

then we go from this, the preseason PECOTA forecast for A-Rod's value:

 

2008 $24,500,000

2009 $19,625,000

2010 $15,475,000

2011 $11,350,000

 

To this:

 

2008	 $41,793,320 	 $41,793,320 
2009	 $34,413,426 	 $76,206,746 
2010	 $28,557,472 	 $104,764,217 
2011	 $23,082,243 	 $127,846,460 
2012	 $19,763,515 	 $147,609,975 
2013	 $16,929,935 	 $164,539,911 
2014	 $14,510,582 	 $179,050,493 
2015	 $12,444,903 	 $191,495,396 
2016	 $10,681,195 	 $202,176,590 
2017	 $9,175,314 	 $211,351,904 

 

The second money column is the cumulative contract value.

 

Everything I wrote regarding forecasts for Lowell applies again. Here's another important caveat, though: the bulk of the regression analysis upon which these salary forecasts were based involved shorter contracts. My subjective belief is that GMs chronically underestimate the potential for decline among HOF-caliber players whom they sign to long-term deals. Subjectively, I believe that the 5/148 line in the above table might reflect fair value--but A-Rod wants, and Boras believes that he can get, an 8-10 year deal. I'd expect those later years to be valued at around $28-30 million each, not the (more realistic) values posted above.

 

I'd pay Mike Lowell $50 million for three years before I'd touch A-Rod at what I expect the final price to be.

[riverside sluggers]

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7401470

 

Ken Rosenthal is reporting that the Yankees are ready to offer a deal close to 5 years/$70 million for Mike Lowell

[BSN07]

I was just getting ready to post that. Yikes, I like Lowell but that is way too much money and too long of a deal. I guess MC,AROD and maybe Atkins could be moving to the top of the list. Plus theres always the possibility we get a 1B and move Youk to 3B.

[riverside sluggers]

I like Miguel Cabrera. But the asking price of Ellsbury, Buchholz and maybe more is just too much to give up.

 

Couple of 1st Base trade options this season are Carlos Delgado (1 year left on contract, Mets looking to free up payroll), Dan Johnson (lefty first baseman has potential 20+ HR power, job taken by Barton)

 

I dont see the Sox coming close to that kind of offer for Lowell, and I wouldnt blame them for not trying to match it. The best bet would be bringing Arod to the Hub

[castigs850]

Well i guess that means either Lowell acts the good guy that he is and comes back here for less, or we probably sign A-Rod. Either way we cant complain. If neither happens then we get to see the front office start getting creative to find another option.

 

Dont we get two weeks to negotiate before the yankees can offer anything??

[riverside sluggers]

Indeed, that time will expire on Monday November 12

[a700hitter]

I like Miguel Cabrera. But the asking price of Ellsbury, Buchholz and maybe more is just too much to give up.

That's a very reasonable price for Miguel Cabrera. He's Manny 10 years younger.

[a700hitter]

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7401470

 

Ken Rosenthal is reporting that the Yankees are ready to offer a deal close to 5 years/$70 million for Mike Lowell

Rosenthal is wrong more often than he is right. I still chuckle when I think about one of his in field reports during the World Series when he compared the Red Sox offense to the offenses of the teams that the Rockies had played in the playoffs-- the Cubs and Arizona. When the hell did the Rockies play the Cubs?

 

As for Lowell, if the Sox had the opportunity to extend him earlier in the year, it was a serious miscalculation that they did not. He proved in 2006 that he was worth more than $8 million/year.

 

The Sox also miscaluted by not extending Schilling for one year #13 million in Spring Training. I thought it was a mistake then and I still think it was a mistake. A one year commitment is not a huge risk. I am happy that he is not asking for two years. He's a big game pitcher and the kids would learn a lot from being around him.

[riverside sluggers]

That's a very reasonable price for Miguel Cabrera. He's Manny 10 years younger.

 

Clay Buchholz (good young pitching, hard to find), Jacoby Ellsbury (potetntial ROY, dyanmite leadoff hitter, franchise player) plus other prospects is reasonable to get Cabrera? Dont know how Theo works then. Coco hasnt proven his worth the last 2 seasons (except for his glittering defense this past season). I dont know about you but I cringe to think of seeing the same bottom of the order-- Varitek, Crisp, Lugo

 

He is Manny 10 years younger but at least Manny knew when to say no to binges at Dennys

[das11209]

Now that Lowell is almost gone - just sign A-Rod already. Tell him he is the best looking dude in the clubhouse and he will sign for 5 year/$27 million.

[a700hitter]

Clay Buchholz (good young pitching' date=' hard to find), Jacoby Ellsbury (potetntial ROY, dyanmite leadoff hitter, franchise player) [b']plus[/b] other prospects is reasonable to get Cabrera? Dont know how Theo works then. Coco hasnt proven his worth the last 2 seasons (except for his glittering defense this past season). I dont know about you but I cringe to think of seeing the same bottom of the order-- Varitek, Crisp, Lugo

 

He is Manny 10 years younger but at least Manny knew when to say no to binges at Dennys

Put a weight clause in his contract. He has few peers with the bat, and only one is close to his young age --- Pujols, and the Cards have him locked up. Ellsbury is an exciting young player and I expect him to be a star. He will be a Johnny Damon-type star. Cabrera is a Manny-type star. You don't pass on him. Bucholz has pitched a handful of games in the majors. That is not enough to predict stardom. We had another rookie pitcher that threw a no-hitter, but he threw it for the Marlins. Anibal Sanchez and Hanley Ramirez is looking pretty good for the established young star Josh Beckett.. right? Ellsbury i no better than HanRam. Cabrera isn't a young star. He's a young superstar.

[MANNYHOF24]

Lowell is one of a handful of guys that I wouldnt boo if he went to the Yankees. I just couldn't do it.

[a700hitter]

Lowell is one of a handful of guys that I wouldnt boo if he went to the Yankees. I just couldn't do it.

If those pricks poach Lowell, the Red Sox should poach ARod and Mo also and then make the Yankee legend an 8th inning setup guy for Papelbon.

[das11209]

If those pricks poach Lowell' date=' the Red Sox should poach ARod and Mo also and then make the Yankee legend an 8th inning setup guy for Papelbon.[/quote']

 

5 year $70 million huh! I wonder if Lowell will miss the Fenway green monster. We shall see if his offence suffers.

[a700hitter]

5 year $70 million huh! I wonder if Lowell will miss the Fenway green monster. We shall see if his offence suffers.

His offense may suffer, but at those prices his bank account will not suffer. His signing with the Yanks would take the Yanks competely out of the running for ARod, and would put the Sox back in the mix. I think John Henry has a man crush on ARod, and will pursue him if the Yanks take Lowell.

[das11209]

I seriously like our chances if we and the Yanks exchange third baseman.