Philadelphia Phillies Scouting Report

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Keith Law's Scouting report. Enjoy.

 

The one-time Cardiac Kids end up on the right side of a tremendous September collapse, erasing memories of a 1964 pennant race no one really remembers anyway. This year's club features some of the best hitters in the game, an ace lefty starter who's still flying somewhat under the radar and a workhorse bullpen with members who pitched better the harder they were worked.

 

The Phillies are now the 13th National League franchise to make the playoffs in the wild-card era, leaving only Pittsburgh, Milwaukee and Washington on the outside. The Phillies also became the fourth franchise GM Pat Gillick has brought to the playoffs, and though most of the key players were already in the system when he took the job, his first move -- trading Jim Thome for Aaron Rowand, freeing a spot for Ryan Howard about a year after the kid was ready -- made this playoff appearance possible.

 

Strengths

This team can rake. The Phillies led the NL in runs scored, scoring 39 runs (5 percent) more than Colorado and 76 more than Atlanta, the No. 2 and No. 3 teams in that category. The top of their lineup is a tough gantlet for opposing pitchers to run through, with four of the top 25 or so hitters in the league this season in their top five spots. Chase Utley was easily the most valuable player on the Phillies this year, and he would have won the MVP award in a rout if his hand hadn't been broken by a pitch thrown by John Lannan in late July.

 

The lineup is all the stronger because each of those five top hitters has a different strength and a different weakness:

 

• Jimmy Rollins has a quick bat and a very short path to the ball, producing a lot of contact and a wide hitting zone. However, he lacks patience and swings early in the count, especially at first-pitch fastballs. From the left side, he's particularly vulnerable to breaking balls below the zone, whether in at his feet or away. From the right side, he has better plate coverage and is tougher to beat without changing speeds and locations, except when he beats himself by jumping at pitches too early in the count.

 

How They'll Win

• The Phillies' best chance to win is via brute force: Score early and often and let manager Charlie Manuel loosen his white-knuckled grip on the pitching hook. The strength of their top five hitters makes this plausible.

 

• Manuel will go to J.C. Romero, Tom Gordon and Brett Myers in some order, even asking them to get 12 outs to preserve a lead or keep a close game from getting out of hand.

 

• Cole Hamels gives them a shot in any game he starts, and against righty-heavy lineups, Jamie Moyer has a shot to roll out six good innings if he can spot his fastball.

• Utley has outstanding bat speed and is the toughest out in the Philly lineup. Despite an awkward setup with a lot of extra movement, he adjusts very well to changing speeds and is willing to go the other way in any count, even taking outside fastballs to left. He's slightly vulnerable to big breaking balls from left-handed pitchers, but has never shown a huge platoon split. He hits the ball middle-in as well as anyone in the Phillies' lineup.

 

• Howard, on the other hand, does not like left-handed pitchers. He still can punish their mistakes, but he clearly doesn't see the ball as well from them and doesn't adjust well to off-speed stuff from lefties. Against righties, however, he's a monster, crushing all types of pitches, and shortening up when he needs to on changeups over the plate or middle-in. Right-handers might try changeups away or fastballs very far in, but if one tries to come in and doesn't get in far enough, Howard might put one off the Liberty Bell.

 

• Pat Burrell -- whose fan club should be called Burrell's Hive -- isn't much of a fan favorite, but he does two things well: take pitches and hit homers. He lays off of a lot of pitches other hitters would chase, including breaking balls under his hands (from a RHP) or at his feet (from a LHP). Of course, he also takes a lot of pitches other hitters would drive; even with two strikes, he often is looking for the perfect pitch to hit, and good pitchers don't offer the perfect pitch to hit very often (or else they wouldn't be good pitchers). His ideal pitch is a fastball middle-out he can hit out of the park. He, Utley and Howard all work the count extremely well.

 

• Rowand's fluky 2007 is going to net him a big payday this offseason. He has an all-out swing and gets his head off the ball early, but he's able to take balls middle-out and pull them, flashing average power and not missing mistakes. He has a lot of weak areas, especially on the ball in: Hard stuff in on his hands, fastballs up and in, and sliders down and in from lefties all give him trouble.

 

Those five hitters combined for 155 homers, 183 doubles and 367 walks. To give some perspective, six NL teams (including the Cubs) hit fewer than 155 homers in 2007, although everyone drew at least 367 walks.

 

How They'll Lose

• Anyone behind Cole Hamels is a candidate to get blown out, and the Phillies don't have the bullpen to keep a game close for six or seven innings.

 

• Charlie Manuel also has shown an itchy trigger finger for pitching changes -- not John McLarenesque, but not far behind, either -- and he's a constant risk to overmanage in tight spots.

 

• Despite the diversity of weaknesses among the Phillies' best hitters, an opposing pitcher with good command of a three- or four-pitch repertoire can succeed against them, especially if he's left-handed and starts with a leg up on Ryan Howard.

Philly's ace starter is as good as they come, even if he isn't usually mentioned in the same breath as Jake Peavy and Brandon Webb. Cole Hamels is a bit of a finesse left-hander, although the term doesn't do him justice because he misses bats left and right with two plus secondary pitches: a 75- to 77-mph curveball with a big two-plane break and the best left-hander's changeup not thrown by a guy named "Johan," a 77-80 pitch with tumble and run that often gives it as much movement as a short breaking ball. Even his fastball, a bit below average at 84-88 mph, has good run, and he is able to spot it to both corners of the plate. Hamels has plus command of all his pitches and even better control, and he shows a great feel for pitching for someone without a lot of pro experience.

 

Defensively, the Phillies are solid up the middle, although perhaps not quite up to their reputation. Rollins is an average defensive shortstop; he makes the highlight play and has a plus arm, but his hands are a little rough and his footwork isn't great. Utley is among the best at second base, with as much range as any intermedista in the league. And although Rowand is best-known for his penchant for running into walls without regard to the consequences for his proboscis, he has average range and an average arm, although he could stand to hit the cutoff man rather than trying to throw through to third base all the time.

 

Weaknesses

After Hamels, the rotation gets shaky. Kyle Kendrick has been a fan favorite, but his stuff and his numbers don't speak to his having a big future. Kendrick's repertoire is fringe-average at best. His fastball is 85-90 mph with a little sink, but it straightens out way too often; his curve is 78-83 with a soft, short break. He has excellent control, but he's homer-prone and probably always will be, and with a well below-average changeup, he gets torched by left-handed hitters.

 

Jamie Moyer is pitching largely on feel and on a great changeup right now. He's 80-83 with his fastball and has to keep it down to survive. His changeup, 74-78 mph, runs in first, then fades away from right-handed batters, and it's his go-to pitch in big situations or with two strikes; he'll double or even triple up on it, even though it becomes less effective the more hitters see it. Against lefties, he'll mix in a slow-roller curveball with good spin and surprising depth, but it's a little too easy for righties to track.

 

Question Marks

• How much more do Tom Gordon, Brett Myers and J.C. Romero have in the tank?

 

• What will Charlie Manuel do if -- or when -- one of his non-Cole Hamels starters gets pounded early?

 

• Can the Phillies score enough runs to make the previous two questions irrelevant?

Kyle Lohse has good stuff -- he's a definite candidate to become Jason Marquis this winter and get a three-year deal everyone laughs at -- but mediocre command; he's a little better as a fastball-slider reliever, although his durability is valuable in the rotation. For the sake of everyone involved, let's just hope he gets the nod here over Adam Eaton.

 

The Phillies' bullpen was a huge part of their September run, but the piper will be by sooner or later, and he doesn't give terms. J.C. Romero appeared 20 times in September. Tom Gordon, who has pitched this year with a slight tear in his labrum and has been running on fumes for two years, pitched 18 times in September. Brett Myers missed two months with a shoulder strain, had worked as a starter his whole career before a panicked move to the bullpen in April and pitched 16 times in September. The Phillies might not have had any choice but to ride these guys hard to get to the postseason, and all three were very effective down the stretch, but at some point -- maybe in October, maybe next year -- the heavy workloads will start to take their toll.

 

Finally, the Phillies' defense on the corners ranges from average to awful. Howard is terrible at first base, enough so that the Philly owners might propose that the National League adopt the designated hitter for the 2009 season. He's not agile around the bag; he doesn't stretch well to receive throws; and his hands are unsure when the ball is hit to him. Wes Helms and Abraham Nunez have below-average range at third. Burrell is slow and reacts late to balls in left. Only Shane Victorino, solid average in right with an average arm, rises above "liability" status among the team's four corner guys. And although Carlos Ruiz is considered a smart catcher and good receiver, he's more than a little prone to the mental mistake.