LA Angels Scouting Report

[Gom]

Thought you guys might like this. From ESPN Insider Keith Law. Enjoy.

 

The Angels' team construction is about as old-school as it gets. They're built around pitching and defense, with a "small ball" offense that puts the ball in play and tries to "manufacture" runs without such niceties as homers and walks. They have a handful of players who run and do so effectively, and they're aggressive about taking extra bases. Their pitching staff is built around power arms who throw strikes, and they've had one of the deepest bullpens in baseball over the past six seasons.

 

Strengths

Their rotation is by far their biggest strength as long as they align it properly for the playoffs. John Lackey, Kelvim Escobar and Joe Saunders are a very strong 1-2-3, while Jered Weaver can be valuable if he's used in the right way.

 

Lackey is one of a handful of bona fide No. 1 starters in the game today. He has outstanding command of a 90-93 mph four-seam fastball and works off that pitch very heavily, burying it inside to righties, cutting it slightly at 90 mph to get it in on lefties and adding a two-seamer at 89-90 to give hitters an extra thing to think about. His best secondary pitch is a curveball at 78-81 mph with good two-plane break, which he uses to get both righties and lefties out, even using it in changeup counts against lefties. Saunders brings a combination of three solid-average pitches, with his fastball one grade above average, and outstanding command of his entire repertoire. He's very effective against left-handers, a potential advantage given the strong left-handed bats on some other playoff teams this year.

 

How They'll Win

• Against high-contact pitchers or poor defensive teams, the Angels can put lots of balls in play and run the bases with near-impunity, allowing them to put up plenty of runs for their pitching staff.

 

• The Angels' top three starters of John Lackey, Kelvim Escobar and Joe Saunders, with Jered Weaver pitching at home, are all capable of holding even high-powered playoff opponents to one or two runs over seven innings, at which point the bullpen's role becomes more manageable.

Escobar, when healthy, is only a shade behind Lackey in quality; he has slightly better stuff but doesn't have Lackey's command. Escobar, however, has struggled with two injuries this year -- patellar tendinitis in his left knee that has bothered him all season and shoulder inflammation that showed up at the end of August and that may or may not be resolved, although the Angels have given him extra rest this month to try to get him fresh for October. When he's on, he works primarily as a three-pitch pitcher with a 91-94 mph fastball (mostly 93-94), a tight, short-breaking slider at 85-86, and a straight change around 81-83, although he'll also show an occasional split, which was his best pitch when he closed for Toronto in the early 2000s. His success comes down to how well he commands his fastball, which he hasn't done well late in the season, but had done extremely well prior to the shoulder issue.

 

And while his performance for most of this year has been disastrous, Ervin Santana has No. 1 starter stuff, with a 91-96 mph fastball that he also runs in hard to right-handers, a tight 82-85 mph slider with good tilt, and an upper 70s curve that looks like his slider rotated 45 degrees for more downward break. There's no way he can be trusted with a regular spot in a playoff rotation, but should the Angels choose to carry him, he's an intriguing weapon as someone who gets used once or maybe twice a series as a multi-inning reliever or as a long man to replace a starter who gets knocked out early.

 

The Angels' infield defense is another area of strength. Shortstop Orlando Cabrera and second baseman Howie Kendrick both have above-average range and first baseman Casey Kotchman has good range and excellent hands. Only third baseman Chone Figgins, who's been moved around quite a bit in his career and doesn't have the actions of a third baseman, is below average. The Angels have further bolstered their defense by playing a natural center fielder, Reggie Willits, in left field, where he can also help Gary Matthews Jr., whose ability to make the highlight play masks fringe-average range in center. (Willits may end up playing more center field if Matthews' recent string of injuries limits him to DH duty in the playoffs.)

 

How They'll Lose

• Mike Scioscia, like many managers, clearly has his favorites in the bullpen, and if he continues to work Scot Shields, Justin Speier and Francisco Rodriguez hard, he's increasing the chances one or all of them will hit the wall in October.

 

• Vladimir Guerrero has been limping around for months, and if the leg problem continues to bother him, he won't hit for power and might even have to sit games out.

 

• Pitchers who miss bats will neutralize a big part of the Angels' attack, as will defenses that convert a lot of balls in play into outs.

Los Angeles' offense isn't built to fit the latest fashion, the spreading disease of so-called "Moneyball" offenses built around patience and power, but instead relies heavily on high-contact hitters who put the ball in play and most of whom run well. It works when enough of those balls in play fall in for hits, and this year, enough have, with the Angels fourth in the league in runs scored despite playing most of their schedule in pitchers' parks. Their top four base stealers -- Willits, Matthews, Cabrera and Figgins -- have combined for 91 steals and a 78 percent success rate, and the Angels also utilize that speed in taking the extra base, helping them squeeze more runs out of their baserunners.

 

And no discussion of the Angels' strengths would be complete without mentioning Francisco Rodriguez, whose electric stuff supersedes his sometimes shaky control and has made him one of the most reliable closers in the game. Manager Mike Scioscia's best option for late-game relief work other than K-Rod is Justin Speier, who missed some time earlier in 2007 with an illness, but whose arm may be fresher now as a result. Speier is effective when he's spotting his fastball in the bottom third of the strike zone, and in his best years he puts everything right at the hitter's knees. His fastball is just average at 90-91, but he uses that briefly to try to get ahead, turning to an 84-85 mph slider with a short, tight break and good tilt, even using that in lieu of his solid-average splitter to get left-handed hitters out.

 

Weaknesses

That high-contact offense has some downsides. Foremost among them is the Angels' relative impatience at the plate, as only the Royals and Mariners have seen fewer pitches this year than the Angels have, and the Royals have actually seen slightly more pitches per plate appearance. The result is that the Angels are particularly susceptible to good command/control pitchers, and can't rely on running up an opposing pitcher's pitch count to get him out of the game and the other team's bullpen involved.

 

Question Marks

• Will Vladimir Guerrero's knee/leg problems continue to hinder his power through the playoffs, or even take him out of a game or two?

 

• Will years of heavy workloads finally catch up to the rubber-armed Scot Shields?

 

• Will the better pitchers on playoff teams use the Angels' lack of patience at the plate against them?

The Angels' run of success over the past six years was built to some degree on outstanding bullpen work, but this year's pen is showing some cracks. Scot Shields, a workhorse set-up man for four years now, has slipped this year, perhaps the inevitable result of some very high workloads during 2004-2006. Shields now works with only an average fastball, and in one outing in August when he was working on one day's rest, his fastball started out at 86-88 and didn't touch 90 until his eighth pitch of the inning. His delivery has a lot of effort in it and his arm action is long, so it's to his and Scioscia's credit that he has provided so much quality work over the past five years, but Scioscia is going to have to cut his reliance on Shields in October unless there's a sudden revival of his stuff.

 

Finally, the Angels' lineup against left-handed pitchers is weaker than it is against righties. Although the team's performance against lefties this year has been identical to its performance against righties, there are a few reasons to think that this won't continue. Garret Anderson, who has struggled against lefties for much of his career and whose bat speed has slowed to the point where he cheats noticeably on fastballs, still gets regular playing time in left. Matthews plays almost every day, but he can't hit lefties at all. Kotchman has yet to homer off a lefty in the majors, and didn't hit them for power in the minors, either. And the Angels still don't have a solid right-handed DH option on their roster, with Maicer Izturis filling that role in some August contests.

[redsticknation]

Wow, Thanks for the post. It is very informative.

[Gom]

You're welcome. Would you like the others for the teams in the NL?

[Cityofchampions33]

You're welcome. Would you like the others for the teams in the NL?

 

Yeah I'd love em on the remaining teams if you didn't mind, these are great. (Yankees, Indinas)

[BoSox21]

I think it took Keith Law more time to write that scouting report than it did the Sox to dismantle the Angels

[RobZombie]

he seems pretty dead on as to how they lost.

 

The Angels played against a team with a bunch of low contact pitchers. On top of the Sox also have a strong defense with possible Gold Glovers in Lowell and Crisp, and another solid guy in Pedroia. Put Ellsberry in late, this became a far above average defensive team.

 

In truth the Sox were likely the worst team that the Angels could have faced as the Yankees and Guardians have weaker defenses.